The Fall of Rafael Nadal

[ClayDeath]

That was probably the 2007 RG and who cares who it is, since he’s a pinpoint. Why derail a conversation in your own thread with a lame quiz question? Why don’t you just let us have a conversation without trying to control it so much? I was addressing JLLB.

I don't think you are capable of a good conversation. you are very good at barking. that seems like your specialty at best.

I am adding color and character to the thread. you can carry on with your conversation with anybody. we are not stopping you.

I make things fun while you run around barking and lecturing people about one thing or another.

learn to discuss things easily and while having fun. make others feel at home. all you do is run around confronting people.

that is no way to grow this forum.

at any rate, this person you claim to be having a conversation with has told you at least 2 times the same thing I have. we need results. I put up some numbers that spell out the steep fall. that is called objectivity.



it seems like this person is telling you the same thing I am:

he is not back until you can show us some results. he cant even make the finals of a masters. he failed to get past the quarters of all 4 slams.

djokovic has demolished him 7 out last 8 times. he has zero answers for djokovic.

if all you have is rio and hamburg then he is not back.

go on my fearless 15 predictions thread if you are so sure that he is back.

go make some predictions for Rafa. put your money where your mouth is.

go ahead and show the world what you believe about Rafa in 2016.

do it now and show that you mean what you believe about Rafa in 2016. show us and the world that you credible.

 

[Moxie]

Speaking of "barking," and bossing the conversation.    :scratch:  I'm just trying to keep it going, CD.  Peace.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Moxie wrote:
That was probably the 2007 RG and who cares who it is, since he’s a pinpoint. Why derail a conversation in your own thread with a lame quiz question? Why don’t you just let us have a conversation without trying to control it so much? I was addressing JLLB.

I don’t think you are capable of a good conversation

I agree. She doesn't think she's the only objective person on the forums. She doesn't literally repeat the same thing in every post. She doesn't claim she's the only person who truly knows her favorite player. She doesn't claim she's right about every prediction ever. She doesn't deny when she's wrong. She doesn't make stuff up. And she's not a delusional, redundant, robot. So yeah, in that regard, I guess she's incapable of a good conversation.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Anyone else notice Nadal has been electing to serve first for a while now?

 

[ClayDeath]

Clay Death wrote:
<blockquote>
Moxie wrote:
That was probably the 2007 RG and who cares who it is, since he’s a pinpoint. Why derail a conversation in your own thread with a lame quiz question? Why don’t you just let us have a conversation without trying to control it so much? I was addressing JLLB.

I don’t think you are capable of a good conversation</blockquote>
I agree. She doesn’t think she’s the only objective person on the forums. She doesn’t literally repeat the same thing in every post. She doesn’t claim she’s the only person who truly knows her favorite player. She doesn’t claim she’s right about every prediction ever. She doesn’t deny when she’s wrong. She doesn’t make stuff up. And she’s not a delusional, redundant, robot. So yeah, in that regard, I guess she’s incapable of a good conversation.

yes making up simpleton, stupid, and imaginary nonsense is your specialty also and not just your clerk moxie.

suppose you go find me that post that you claim I made where I said Rafa should skip the entire rest of the year after losing early at Wimbledon in 2013.

do not disappoint me. go find the post or make one up.

I deal only with the reality on the ground. it is you who are delusional. it is stooping too low to try to take cheap shots at people. you and moxie repeatedly cross the line. you two don't have what it takes to compete with the likes of me and mikeone.

you two just keep confronting people rather than talk tennis.

and for what? what does it prove? only thing it proves is that you and moxie are simply desperate to take cheap shots at people. it is a desperate and pathetic attempt to look smarter. and it is not working. probably better to just keep your mouths shut and let people wonder if you two are simpletons and cheap shot artists than to open the mouths and remove all doubt.





why is it so damned hard for you two to just stay on the subject of tennis? the forum is called "Discuss Tennis".

grow up or just go get some help. or go read a few books on the sport of tennis.

start taking the high road today.

 

[Moxie]

Anyone else notice Nadal has been electing to serve first for a while now?

I actually asked the same question yesterday on the London YEC thread. My theory is that he's trying to start out from a more aggressive rather than passive mindset. And even though he has often dropped his first serve, I think the idea behind it is a good one for him.

 

[ClayDeath]

I am going to post this here also since this thread is going to outlast the other one:

 


pathetic performance by Rafa. I refuse to watch him play with this level of game and fitness. that means that I did not watch and I am not going to watch. I just cant bear to watch him play with this game and  with this significantly reduced fitness and physicality.

djokovic hit 12 winners and just 1 unforced error in the first 3 games alone. it is damn near zero competition for djokovic. it is like me playing a 4 year old in chess.

yesterday’s first set against ferru should have told the story to all the objective observers: the match meant nothing to ferru as he had been eliminated already. he should have been picked off easily. not just because Rafa had beaten him 23 times already. ferru’s spirit should have been picked off easily and quickly.

rafa led comfortably in that first set and then would proceed to get pushed around by ferru to lose the set. he won just 2 points in the breaker. rafa got tight for no reason at all. and then fought a little bit to take the next 2 sets in a totally meaningless match except for the money. a chance to make more money in one more match.

I am surprised today’s score is not 6-1, 6-1. rafa said yesterday that he may be tired today. that was his way of basically telling the world that he was not going to have much of a chance.

like MikeOne told you, this is also not a new development. rafa has been getting killed by djokovic on the hard courts for a while now. only now he gets killed by him on clay also.

 

beating a couple or 3 players that you have owned all your life does not constitute that he is back. in fact after this match he fell back even further. djokovic has now taken 8 of the last 9 matches comfortably.

and rafa is talking about vacations already. now to be fair, he did say that he has taken too much time off already this year so he wont take a long vacation.

at the end of the day you still have somebody that can only really show rio and hamburg titles. that should not be acceptable to him.

until he and his team embrace clay and produce a huge work ethic on the fitness front, I am not going to be able to conclude that he is back.

 

he accomplished nothing by being here other than pick up some pocket money. and it was pocket change for him. he could have made $10 million by doing a few commercials. I would have skipped this event to go start extensive work on clay to find the ground game again and also to start a very serious fitness program.

especially since he has already said more than just one time that he wont be ready for the Australian open. clay is the only place where he can start to stage his real and true comeback. he needs to start preparing for his clay season now. it is clay or it is nothing.

all these were a few baby steps for a better 2016. nothing more. he should have lost to rosol in the first match in basel but rosol choked it away. he did lose to 35 year old Federer who he had beaten 23 times. he even had the momentum by taking the 2nd set. just could not seal the deal.

andy checked out early here and beating stan and ferru was not a big deal for him. he has been healthy for well over a year now. he is an all time great with huge head to head advantages over these three. stan was off his game and ferru kept him on the court for nearly 3 hours.

translation: he cant win unless he can win the long rally. djokovic again controlled the baseline. only it keeps getting easier and easier for him. he has no problem kicking his man when he is down. it has become a little too easy for him now.

and to win the long rally, you have to put in the work like Djokovic is doing.

rafa took a few baby steps forward but then took 10 steps back today. he has to go and try to fix this. the only place where he can start to fix his issues is clay.

it wont be easy there also. against the top players, he could only break serve less than 20% of the times on clay this year. he cant return well and he cant serve well. to put that in perspective, examine his stats against his opponents in 2008 at RG. he was breaking there serve nearly 66% of the time. that is 2 out of every three.

serving issues are more severe now since he does not have the ground game to back up the weak serve. there is also added pressure on his own serve since he cant return effectively.

people and the reporters keep saying he is back. we all want him to get back to being rafa again but he is not back. does rafa want to get back to being rafa again?

I am glad he is healthy and played a few matches toward the end of this year but I would have skipped world tour finals. he said he thought about skipping since he was not ready and his heart was not in it. he knew he had no chance here to win it. he could not do it even on his best day.

these demolition jobs at the hand of djokovic are probably going to have a lasting effect on him. people forget that rafa comes equipped with fragile emotions.

I am really heart broken and also pissed that rafa has done this himself. it is what it is. he lost the hunger and the relentless drive a while back and it was going to have an effect on his game and his fitness. it is not rocket science.

he has to decide quickly what he wants to achieve in 2016. he has to set goals and then make them happen.

he said he will go to Rio and then he will see what happens after that. or something to that effect. I would start targeting clay right away and set some goals.

he needs concrete goals and it all has to start with very serious work on the fitness and physicality front. djokovic has already been talking about how much extra work he wants to do on the fitness front in the off season. he also said he was going to set new goals.

 


 

 

[EdbergsGhost]

Nadal is one for eight in his last nine outings against Djokovic.  In the past, both guys have gone on significant runs.  Does anyone realistically see Nadal mounting another offensive that results in a string of wins?  I do not.

 

[ClayDeath]

my worst fears have come to pass and I predicted this as early as 2009. I had a feeling this was going to happen. I could see it happening in a way.

even Agassi talked about his fitness and training. he said it had to change for him to last in the sport.

not only did it not change, rafa made it worse by absolutely saying to NO to progress and innovation. he was young enough and strong enough and good enough for the world. he started to develop some sense of complacency at the end of 2010.

but there were a lot of other factors also. for instance, he became bigger than ever in 2014. and even today corporate sponsors keep beating a path to his door. he became a ultra huge and ultra popular global superstar while not paying sufficient attention to his game and his fitness. he made over $41 million in 2014. so the world started placing huge demands on his time. and then he got caught up with his golf, tennis academy, his foundation, his poker, and the like. he lost focus.

the world would catch up with him. this is what Djokovic is preventing from happening. he says he has to work on his game and his fitness all the time to improve, innovate, and to keep his competitive advantage.

injuries did not help. and now the task is monumental to get back to the very top level where he can win masters events and one more RG.

those numbers I put up earlier in this thread spell out the fall. it is too damn steep.

also I still have my eyes. I can see that he is just a shell of what he used to be. there are at least 20 women on the WTA circuit that hit the ball harder than he does.

he is going to have to do what Agassi did if he is serious about getting back to his levels. it has to start with fitness and physical work. he has to go out and hire a physical training expert and a tennis specific fitness expert.

and then he just has to log in endless hours on clay to get his ground game back.

there is no other way. zero. there are no other solutions and no other options left.

we all want him back but right now the probabilities of that happening are low. he is talking vacations already while djokovic says he cant wait to get into off season to start his extensive work on his game and his fitness.

rafa and his team better embrace clay and do it quickly. the time is not exactly on their side right now.

 

[ClayDeath]

he is my player so I am not going to ever give up on him. I will always hold out some hope.

but time has come to see some changes. and I am not talking about uncle tony.

it is time to bring in a physical training expert and a tennis specific fitness expert.

it is also time to realize and completely and fully understand that clay is the wellspring from which he flows. he has to go back to those roots.

30 months without any titles on hard courts should be telling him and his team something. 46 clay titles also should be spelling something out.

anybody can win rio and hamburg. ferru is sitting on 6 titles and he is 100 years old. he is also 4 feet tall.

rafa's challenge is the masters before we can talk slams. any masters event on clay will do for starters.

 

[ClayDeath]

here is what David Nalbandian had to say today:

 

Djokovic is surprising. His season is comparable to Nadal and Federer's best seasons. Now Nole is able to break every record. Nadal has improved in the second half of the year and next year the clay season will be the key to determine his future, whether he will be in or out".

 

[ClayDeath]

I am just hoping and praying that something fuels his hunger and his drive again.

this was not even a match. the score does not do justice to the embarrassing domination. I hope Rafa resolves to do something about it.

djokovic won nearly 100% of the first serve points. 98% to be exact.  rafa had exactly zero break points.

you cant win if you cant break in this sport.

 

 

 

[Moxie]

Nadal is one for eight in his last nine outings against Djokovic. In the past, both guys have gone on significant runs. Does anyone realistically see Nadal mounting another offensive that results in a string of wins? I do not.

It will depend on where and when they play, and how well Nadal progresses on his return to form. Novak was outstanding today, and he's a bad match-up for Nadal on HCs that favor him, like this one. There's no denying that. But if you look at the 8 matches you mention, 4 came this year, when Nadal was fairly crap for most of it, and 5 were on HCs in tournaments that Nadal has never won, including 2 YECs and 2 Beijings. 3 on clay, but 2 were this year. And Nadal did win the one that counts the most. (RG 2014.)

You mentioned on the live chat that this match evened the H2H. Well, that only took 9 1/2 years. Before 2011, the H2H was 16-7. When Djokovic had his (first) annus mirabilis in 2011-12, he won 7 straight against Rafa, of course, and pulled within 2 of tying. So it took him 4 years just to make it a tie. Nadal is making a serious argument for a much better 2016. I don't actually care if he makes a "run of wins" against Djokovic, but he has had a tendency to beat him in the bigger moments. I'd settle for that. B-)

 

[ClayDeath]

this post was made by jesuslookslikeborg. and my reply is posted here:

"rafa has played over 80 matches in singles this year, plus around 18-20 doubles matches..100+ matches in 2015.. zero injuries, fit, out there, just him and his opponent..what happened ?. zero majors, zero masters.

his game is ragged, the only plus point is getting his rank back into the top 8, like mr clay death says..2016 will reveal the final truth of weather he is capable of winning the big trophies once again..i wish he didn’t play this indian itpl circus in December,

surely a proper break and then a good pre-season would be better ??. i’d like to see it happen, rafa in some big finals once again, on sunny days, in front of a packed out stadium and an excited tv audience.

"

---------------------------------

my reply:

great post as usual.

 

 

it is not going to happen. he wont even get into the finals of masters, let alone have a shot at one. not with the current trends and current dynamics in place.

if he wont change a thing and then go waste his extremely limited time chasing a few bucks that he does not need then just get ready to say hello to another year just like 2015.

he is talking vacations again while djokovic is talking improved fitness and more work on his game in the off season.

 

ever wonder why guys like djokovic and Federer never get injured? also ever wonder why they are the ones at the top of the sport today.

 

Rafa is my player and always will be until the end of all times but I can see what is going on. he does not really care to win anymore. he gave up the big game hunt a while back.

and I cant hold that against him. it is his life. he spent an enormous amount of physical, mental, and emotional capital chasing down Federer and carving out his own immortality. he dominated clay for nearly a decade. the dude is spent.

 

all this idle talk that he and his camp produces is for public consumption for the fans and the sponsors. and he is still in the sport. so he and his camp have to say the right thing.

the dude is spent and he is done. he could have overcome some of his battles but the mountain that he has to climb is just too damn steep.

this was an indoor, climate control climate environment but outdoors rafa is spent after 40 minutes of practice.

gilles simon called it right when he saw him in paris. he said rafa looked terrible fitness and physicality wise. simon must have had plenty of good looks at rafa. in 2014 he (simon) would hit 60 winners against him in rome. and this is simon we are talking about.

Rafa lost nearly 100% of the points on Djokovic’s first serve today. he cant get the ball back and he has no way to back up his own weak serve since his ground game is at 30% capacity at best.

you saw what berdych did to him in Melbourne. rafa won just 10% of the points from the baseline. he got demolished by berdych.

all this is no accident. rafa refuses to put in the hard yards and he refuses to change a damn thing.

he even said it. he said he is just going to do it his way. that sums it up.

unless there is a significant change in training and the work on fitness, 2016 may even end up being worse than 2015. I am seeing exactly zero indication of any significant changes.

you should see the headlines around the world today. they are not saying that he was derailed by djokovic.

they are saying stuff like “djokovic swats nadal aside”. like he is a hapless mosquito.

all these people who say he is back fail to go to my “fearless 15” thread and make a single prediction regarding what he can win in 2016.

only one entry: broken shoe said that djokovic will win RG. meaning forget about rafa at RG in 2016.

djokovic stands at the gate of all the masters. rafa does not have the will, the game, and the fitness to get through djokovic on any surface.

so zero masters. that also means zero slams since djokovic also stands at the gates of all the slams.

rio is a joke. he faced nobody ranked higher than #25 there. I cant even call that a title for him. he owns 9 RG crowns and now has to go to rio and hamburg to win titles.

you can see clearly now why I am worried to death. there is just not enough time left.

he has had plenty of time off. he has been injured 4 out of last 6 years. that is more than enough time off. and this year he lost early in all of the big events. so there is more time off.

but if he does not want it anymore then he does not want it. nothing can  be done about it.

I would have thought that serena, Federer, and djokovic would offer plenty of inspiration but I am not seeing it.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

^^ahh nice one..you moved my poast I'd put up in the wrong thread.

 

[ClayDeath]

^^ahh nice one..you moved my poast I’d put up in the wrong thread.

you are not going to believe this. this just in:



rafa said he is not going to change a damn thing. he said he is just going to keep doing what he is doing.

he is also taking some time off for a vacation.

more on this later.

I will just post his remarks here later.

basically he said he is just going to keep doing what he is doing.

 

[ClayDeath]

****this is what Rafa said:

"My next step is just keep practising the way that I am doing. I know I need to keep improving things if I want to have chances against Novak next year," the 29-year-old said.

"That's what I am going to try. Just keep working the way that I am doing. I think I am doing well.

 

-----------------------------------------

 

 

********we all know he has been resistant to change, constant improvement, progressing, and innovation. so this is nothing new. now he just confirmed that again.

what is new is that he is also resistant to the blistering work ethic he was known for. not entirely new of course.

smart observers should have been able to pick up on that long ago.

if he was very serious about hard work and about "redoubling his effort" than he would not be so damned rusty in every single department of his game.

pat cash is not buying that "low on confidence crap" so why should you. he said the same thing I have been saying for ages now.

he just needs to go out and hit a million balls and the ground game will come back.

do you honestly believe that he went to indian wells to win? he went there because of the huge appearance fee and a chance to play golf and hang out with larry Allison.

he actually went on a vacation to coata rica before indian wells while all the other top players were working their asses off.

I keep telling this to people but some are not listening. he does not care to win anymore.

otherwise he would do something about it.

why do you think a million experts have stepped forward to offer advice. johnny mac suggested a coaching change.

pat cash said he can break rafa's game down but that what he needs the most is to go out and bloody well work and stop talking about working.

meaning that he has to go out and hit a million balls.

I don't suggest a coaching change but I do suggest an immediate change. his game is very heavily dependent on supreme fitness and physical strength. they need to bring in a fitness expert.

djokovic did and look what happened. djokovic has always been open to change and improvement and progression and innovation. ages ago he even brought mark woodforde to teach him how to volley properly. and that is just one example.

he needs to embrace clay. he should be hitting balls on clay right now 6-7 hours a day and forget about this damn vacation if he is serious about getting to the top.

and this league offers him $1 million a match which he does not need. he will most likely make around $50 million this year anyway. and his 9 Rg crowns are worth $1 billion over his lifetime.

he does not have the luxury of time anymore.

 

 

but all this is wasted words on my part. the dude is done. he is not going to win any masters events in 2016. djokovic will be standing at the gates of all of the masters events.

rafa just told you that he is not going to change a damn thing. that really sums it all up.

he is not going to change anything and he is not going to put in the very long and hard yards required. end of story.

talking about working hard and actually doing it are 2 different things. he has nothing to show for on the court.

I know people that were actually at his practice sessions in Melbourne and a few other places. they said the practice sessions were lame and weak. he did not take them seriously. he pretty much stands in his backhand corner and hits a bunch of forehands. he wont even bother to work on his backhand in practice.

this is not rocket science. his game and his fitness is not in shambles by accident.

rafa is his own man. he will just finish out his career now his way. I think he retires at the end of 2016.

cant see him taking these absolute humiliations at the hands of djokovic beyond 2016.

and also no real titles to speak of. it has to end sooner or later at this rate.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

in the end its down to him..like you I don't agree with rafa just doing the same stuff over and over with no changes.

I was hoping for some fresh coaching input at least..but that's not happening either, so that's that. on with the show.

 

 

[Moxie]

in the end its down to him..like you I don’t agree with rafa just doing the same stuff over and over with no changes. I was hoping for some fresh coaching input at least..but that’s not happening either, so that’s that. on with the show.

I don't agree at all that Nadal doesn't make changes. This seems to be a new trope, but without merit. He's always been tinkering with his game, working to improve, rather famously. Back when Federer steadfastly refused to make changes, even to accommodate Nadal, and even to the hew and cry of his fanbase, Nadal was working to get better on grass, improve his serve, etc. etc. When Djokovic came out with his miraculous new game, Nadal eventually made adjustments. And he's been making adjustments ever since, to be more aggressive. A new racquet came in and went away, but that happened with Roger, too. Probably it will work its way into the equation. I really don't see how anyone who's been paying attention would say that Nadal hasn't made adjustments to his game, or keeps working towards improvement.

 

[ClayDeath]

in the end its down to him..like you I don’t agree with rafa just doing the same stuff over and over with no changes. I was hoping for some fresh coaching input at least..but that’s not happening either, so that’s that. on with the show.

exactly. he has said this about 100 times but evidently some just don't listen. of course they fail to see also.

he has said very specifically that he is going to do it his way. he is his own man.

he just said again that he is doing fine. and that he is not going to change a thing.

and the proof is in the execution or the pie as they say:

at the end of the day all he can say is that he has Rio and Hamburg. they are not even titles.

he never faced anybody at those events and very nearly lost at both of them. he was huffing and puffing and panting after just 2 sets against fognini at hamburg. in fact he started to cramp up badly at the trophy ceremony.

he doubles over in practice after just 40 minutes.

he will improve some fitness in the off season but the gulf between him and djokovic is wider than it has ever been now. and it will just keep getting wider without any real changes in training and fitness.



at any rate this just confirms further that he is done. he is on his retirement circuit.

how are these numbers for you:

at the end of next year it will be 43 months without a hard court title.

and 3 years without a masters title.

at the current rate I can see no other outcome.

more next time.