The Fall of Rafael Nadal

britbox

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I've no doubt it does... but Rafa's shelf life has exceeded Musters and Vilas put together and far outstripped their silverware. One thing that's being overlooked here (although masterclass visited it on his original post)... how much has Rafa got left in the head engine... not just the legs engine. It takes two to tango.
 

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General, a fitness coach expert is definitely needed. Nadal and his team need to look no farther than Gebhard Phil-Gritsch, Thomas Muster's old fitness coach who was hired by Djokovic back in 2009.
We said it years ago, Nadal needed to steal him away from Novak, no matter the cost. Well, he didn't.
And now we see the cost. Novak Djokovic is the fittest man on the planet, and Nadal can't last 3 sets in 250 and 500 competition.

So I'll say it again, Nadal needs to use some of that 45 million he gets every year from his sponsors and get Gebhard, or someone his equal, even if he has to pay 2-3 million a year. It's his only chance.

Everyone saw today what we have been saying. He got tired in the end again; he was hitting returns between the net and service line and his forehands either had no sting or were sailing out.
Cuevas with a one handed backhand was the stronger.player in the decider, and Rafa is now 2-3 this year in deciders so far.
As mentioned in my earlier post, In 2013, Rafa was 14-1, 93% in deciders. I believe around 71% in his career before 2014.
How far has he fallen? You have it right there. He needs a top notch fitness coach at all costs to survive.

But this will happen only if he wants it badly enough. If he is content to fade away, and go teach at his Academy, play golf, poker, etc. then forget everything I've said.

Respectfully,
masterclass


if he wanted to win badly enough he would do something about it.

fundamentally it is up to him. only a small window of opportunity exists and it would have to be in 2017.


he is content only in idle talk for public consumption and for the sponsors. the results speak much more loudly:

he just keeps showing up with terrible preparation. at this current rate there are actually players out there on the challenger circuit that can topple him.

his rank is completely bogus. he is not top 10.
 

ClayDeath

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I've no doubt it does... but Rafa's shelf life has exceeded Musters and Vilas put together and far outstripped their silverware. One thing that's being overlooked here (although masterclass visited it on his original post)... how much has Rafa got left in the head engine... not just the legs engine. It takes two to tango.


actually general masterclass and I have said it ages ago. rafa left the sport without actually leaving.

we know that there has been a staggering amount of mental and physical capital spent in dominating the red clay for a decade. and those 14 majors.


but you have to also remember that you can also replenish that with inactivity. with time away from the sport. and he has done that one way or another.

he has been injured 5 out of the last 7 years. and then there are all those endless outside interests. he has also been farting around the last 2 years. no way in hell could he have dropped and declined so much if he had given the sport even a minimal attention. he is an all time great and still only 29. he really should be plenty hungry for wins by now.

stop making excuses for Rafa. he and his coaches keep saying that he wants to get back a decent level.


we will play their game for the sake of our discussions. but unfortunately we also know the truth. there is just 2% chance that he can get back to even a respectable level.

he will have to wake up one morning with the fire raging in his belly. and then he has to go out and relish the challenge of making it happen.


at any rate it a starts with fitness and physical work. he has zero chance of stringing together wins without it, let alone winning even mickey mouse titles.
 
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ClayDeath

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I've no doubt it does... but Rafa's shelf life has exceeded Musters and Vilas put together and far outstripped their silverware. One thing that's being overlooked here (although masterclass visited it on his original post)... how much has Rafa got left in the head engine... not just the legs engine. It takes two to tango.

There is nothing wrong with his legs.

He is the greatest and finest physical specimen this sport has ever produced.

The problem is the work ethic.


He overcame any and all injuries to snatch 14 majors.

Also he could have prevented 90 percent of injuries with greater attention to fitness and better training.

More on this later.
 

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Rafa converted on just 2 of 13 break points opportunities.

This is on clay against low level players.

This is not lack of sufficient luck. This is lack of preparation.

This is lack of sufficient work ethic.

This is lack of focus.

This is near total neglect of his profession.


I am his greatest fan on this planet but I won't feel sorry for him.

He single handedly brought about his staggering decline. And still refuses to break the free fall.


Of course trends have been in place for years for this decline.

My position: nobody can come back from such a steep decline. probability is nearly 100 percent that he can't get back to respectable levels.


That said he has a very tiny window left for 2017. It would have to be on clay.

He can take a couple of masters on clay and his 10th RG but he will have to lay the foundation for it this year.

So far he has done nothing to ensure a better and stronger return in 2017.

His game and his fitness are actually getting worse.


Only he can come back from this level but it requires 7-8 hours of hard work a day for a whole year.

right now he would have trouble winning challenger level events on clay.

he simply has no fitness.
 
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ClayDeath

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he says he is now looking forward to Indian Wells.

translation: I will go get on the hard courts ASAP.

another translation: I don't mind getting my ass handed to me in the first or the 2nd round. I am used to it by now and I know exactly what to say to the press and media.


you are looking at a guy who will have exactly zero titles at the end of 2016. hamburg will be difficult. that might be the only possibility but what the hell will that prove if you just have to beat some top 30 or top 40 player in the final.

and then there is Miami.




so we really are looking at somebody that doesn't give a damn if he wins or loses. he is done winning. in fact losing is just getting easier all the time.

he wont even listen to nalbandian. nalby said it is clay or the exit.


clay is the wellspring from which he flows. his 46 clay titles spell that out a little too clearly.


I would go to indian wells and get my ass handed to me and then just skip maimi. just get to Mallorca ASAP after the early loss at indian wells and get on clay.

get on clay and stay on clay.
 

masterclass

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If Rafa can't beat this level of players on clay, he has nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. It has been his best surface by far.

IF he still wants it badly enough, there is a way. It's going to be damn difficult, but perhaps not as difficult as fighting his way through injuries in years past.

He will finish his 30th year on the planet in June. Borg was done winning "main tour" titles by 26, Vilas won his last title in Kitzbuhel before turning 31 and his last major before turning 27, Muster's last two titles were in 1997 in Dubai and Miami and he was done after 29.5 years. The topspin game is difficult to maintain. And these are some of the greatest to play.

Borg on his preparation for Wimbledon during his 20's: "I practiced for two weeks for six hours a day at the same place, the Cumberland Club in North London. I just ate, slept and practiced. And there was no sex with my girlfriend (Mariana Simionescu, later his first wife). It was definitely not a glamorous lifestyle. And we couldn't go out as there always seemed to be a hundred girls in the lobby."

Rafa has to rededicate everything he has to the sport to get back near his best level (though 80-90% would probably be enough on clay), but maybe he can't do that anymore.

Time is very short. and only time will tell.

Respectfully,
masterclass
 
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ClayDeath

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If Rafa can't beat this level of players on clay, he has nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. It has been his best surface by far.

IF he still wants it badly enough, there is a way. It's going to be damn difficult, but perhaps not as difficult as fighting his way through injuries in years past.

He will finish his 30th year on the planet in June. Borg was done winning "main tour" titles by 26, Vilas won his last title in Kitzbuhel before turning 31 and his last major before turning 27, Muster's last two titles were in 1997 in Dubai and Miami and he was done after 29.5 years. The topspin game is difficult to maintain. And these are some of the greatest to play.

Borg on his preparation for Wimbledon during his 20's: "I practiced for two weeks for six hours a day at the same place, the Cumberland Club in North London. I just ate, slept and practiced. And there was no sex with my girlfriend (Mariana Simionescu, later his first wife). It was definitely not a glamorous lifestyle. And we couldn't go out as there always seemed to be a hundred girls in the lobby."

Rafa has to rededicate everything he has to the sport to get back near his best level (though 80-90% would probably be enough on clay), but maybe he can't do that anymore.

Time is very short. and only time will tell.

Respectfully,
masterclass


that is as well as it can be said and articulated.


it is clay or get your ass handed to you even by unknown players who will never amount to anything.

in fact their greatest claim to fame will be they beat an all time great who doesn't care to win.

great post. we have been saying this for years. the road he took would lead to this disaster.



but is it really disaster? this is exactly what he wants. he has his money, fame, fortune, and his popularity continues to skyrocket.


he really doesn't have the time for winning otherwise he would do something about it.

Sampras said he is on his own retirement circuit and he is. nothing has changed. in fact it is becoming more and more clear with each passing day.


now both he and his coach say the game has passed them by. horse crap. go out and work like the rest of the players and win just like they are all winning.


the world will catch on to that lip service soon enough. you will keep getting your ass handed to you and you will win exactly zero events on any surface.

soon the world is going to say the same thing jim courier and Federer were saying last year: Federer basically said that he has to get on the bloody practice courts.

courier was worried that he is too inactive.


well now they don't have to worry and wonder anymore. the man doesn't care to win. he walked away without actually walking away.


he is on his retirement circuit. leave him alone press and media. let him keep getting his ass handed to him.

now a first round loss or a 2nd round loss at indian wells.


there is no fire in his belly. history will say that he spent too much physical capital and mental capital like general britbox is saying.


and now has nothing to give. I am not going to be that forgiving.
 
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ClayDeath

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he would struggle against some top flight challenger level players now on clay. the man has just 30% of his game and about 35% of his fitness.

in addition he has lost significant muscle mass.

you can go work if you want it bad enough. muster did not even need legs to go practice his topspin forehand if that is all he could hit.

he was out there with no legs. practicing his topspin forehand.

a drunk driver destroyed and shattered his knee. no problem strap me to the damn bench and place me on the tennis court. and I will just hit forehands all day. and he did.
 

ClayDeath

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If Rafa can't beat this level of players on clay, he has nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. It has been his best surface by far.

IF he still wants it badly enough, there is a way. It's going to be damn difficult, but perhaps not as difficult as fighting his way through injuries in years past.

He will finish his 30th year on the planet in June. Borg was done winning "main tour" titles by 26, Vilas won his last title in Kitzbuhel before turning 31 and his last major before turning 27, Muster's last two titles were in 1997 in Dubai and Miami and he was done after 29.5 years. The topspin game is difficult to maintain. And these are some of the greatest to play.

Borg on his preparation for Wimbledon during his 20's: "I practiced for two weeks for six hours a day at the same place, the Cumberland Club in North London. I just ate, slept and practiced. And there was no sex with my girlfriend (Mariana Simionescu, later his first wife). It was definitely not a glamorous lifestyle. And we couldn't go out as there always seemed to be a hundred girls in the lobby."

Rafa has to rededicate everything he has to the sport to get back near his best level (though 80-90% would probably be enough on clay), but maybe he can't do that anymore.

Time is very short. and only time will tell.

Respectfully,
masterclass


only a small window of opportunity exists now but the window is 98% closed. only a 2% chance that he can get there.


it has to be 2017 and it has to be on clay.


the foundation for that has to be this year but I have seen absolutely nothing to suggest that he wants to get back to a respectable level, let alone win some mickey mouse title.

there is no place to hide. he looks like a damn fool out there since he keeps showing up horribly unprepared.

he complained no less than 4 times about heat and humidity in argentina. it just keeps getting worse.
 

ClayDeath

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This is the best article that I've read for long time about what is going on to Nadal

https://www.thetennisbase.com/?enlace=blog&bg=4&post=Nadal-at-the-crossroads


he needs the money. that is why he is chasing it. and I am ok with that. I would take all that money and the spotlight too.

but I would also fight back. I would go work 7-8 hours a day and show the world that I am indeed the ultimate gladiator of the sport.

he fought to the death. that is how he carved out his immortality.

now he walks onto the battlefield waving a white flag. he says he is not the favorite against anyone.

he says things like I don't want to win 15 RG titles and that it is ok if I lose.

he knows exactly what he is doing. he just doesn't care to put in the work in order to be able to win again.

he has plenty of wealth but it is hard to walk away from $41-$45 million a year.

as I have suggested before, his 14 majors that include 9 RG crowns are worth $1 billion over his lifetime. many of his endorsements will be for a lifetime.

he simply has no work ethic because he doesn't care to win.


in his mind it is the extreme amount of physical and mental capital spent in achieving all that he achieved. so he feels like he has nothing more to give and nothing more to achieve.

he worked very hard for his wins since he had a limited game. also heavy topspin game is very demanding to begin with. you have to be a superhuman and he was. until he let everything go.


nothing is going to happen. it is over. it has been over.
 

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he needs the money. that is why he is chasing it. and I am ok with that. I would take all that money and the spotlight too.

but I would also fight back. I would go work 7-8 hours a day and show the world that I am indeed the ultimate gladiator of the sport.

he fought to the death. that is how he carved out his immortality.

now he walks onto the battlefield waving a white flag. he says he is not the favorite against anyone.

he says things like I don't want to win 15 RG titles and that it is ok if I lose.

he knows exactly what he is doing. he just doesn't care to put in the work in order to be able to win again.

he has plenty of wealth but it is hard to walk away from $41-$45 million a year.

as I have suggested before, his 14 majors that include 9 RG crowns are worth $1 billion over his lifetime. many of his endorsements will be for a lifetime.

he simply has no work ethic because he doesn't care to win.


in his mind it is the extreme amount of physical and mental capital spent in achieving all that he achieved. so he feels like he has nothing more to give and nothing more to achieve.

he worked very hard for his wins since he had a limited game. also heavy topspin game is very demanding to begin with. you have to be a superhuman and he was. until he let everything go.


nothing is going to happen. it is over. it has been over.

It's a shame that he doesn't want to sacrifice any more like all of them have to do to be on the top, he could win more titles if he would try harder but obviously he doesn't want to be in that roll, I said long time ago that he is more focus in others things and nobody believed me
But still......I hope to be wrong and then we can see soon how he turn on the 'click' surprising to all of us :sick:
 
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Denis

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Nadal is starting to put some pretty high inflation on his opponents wins against him. For most of his career, winning against Nadal on clay was an achievement only a few of the elite could muster and only very rarely. Everyone nowadays has a shot. This stuff is tainting the old wins
 
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ClayDeath

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he is lining up exos and sponsor driven appearances even as you read this. and then there is golf and poker that also awaits him. there is also that matter of tennis academy and the foundation.

he is playing an exo against some nobody on an indoor surface on march 21st.

I saw what was going to happen many years ago but it still shatters my heart to see this. he is not even a shell of what he used to be.

he is even less than a shell. people at his last match say--who were there-- he was just horrible in every way.

just 2 of 13 break point opportunities. dropping everything short. he cant even get the ball back on serve.

he is worn out after just 40 minutes of play.



this is why I said that wins against him don't mean anything anymore. he just shows up, loses early, they hand him his ass, and he goes away.


surely some will end up with winning records against him now but it means nothing. he left the sport 2 years ago. his heart and his mind left the sport.
 

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Nadal is starting to put some pretty high inflation on his opponents wins against him. For most of his career, winning against Nadal on clay was an achievement only a few of the elite could muster and only very rarely. Everyone nowadays has a shot. This stuff is tainting the old wins

It doesn't matter how bad he is playing now, he always will be named the master of clay and having better records than anyone else, the old wins will be there forever and ever
 

ClayDeath

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there are opportunities to do some extra training on clay but he is going to Miami anyway.

and then there are opportunities for added clay matches in Houston and Morocco before Monte Carlo.

but no. why do that. that requires hard work. why not just fart around and play an exo on an indoor surface against some bloody nobody on march 21st.
 

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IF Rafa is going to come back to anywhere near his best there will be obvious signs.

First, you will see him looking more fit. More muscle, less winded, reaching balls with enough time, and the forehand doing consistent damage, winning at least 70% of deciders.

Second, you will see better results on clay.

Signposts to look for:

Semi in Monte Carlo

Final or Win in Barcelona

Madrid irrelevant but at least 3-4 wins needed...

Rome final or win

Bottom line, he needs about 18-20 clay match wins before the RG quarters.

If he can do that, I give him a good chance to win RG.

But if he keeps getting beaten in SF by ordinary mortals or earlier on clay, forget it. Frankly, I don't see it happening this year. He has a lot of work to do if he is going to do it.

Just to put this into perspective, remember his record on clay, or you can go and check it...
Between Jan 2005 and Dec 2013 (9 full years) Rafa lost only 4 matches prior to FINALS on red clay (exc. Madrid's 2012 blue clay loss to Verdasco):

2012: Madrid [Blue Clay] - Verdasco in R16

2009: Roland Garros - Soderling in R16
2008: Rome - Ferrero in R32
2005: Valencia - Andreev in QF
2005: Buenos Aires - Gaudio in QF


In Finals in that time period, he lost 3 times to Novak in the Madrid, Rome, and Monte Carlo Masters, twice to Federer in Madrid and Hamburg Masters, and once to Zeballos in Chile in his 1st tournament after 7+ months out.
That's a 267-11 record (including the blue clay loss). That's an unbelievable 96% winning percentage and a 98% finals percentage.
At one point, he won a record 81 straight matches on clay, in over 2 years, between Andreev in Valencia, before being beaten by Federer in Hamburg..
This is almost as pure a surface domination and demolition as one is going to get in this sport.

However, since then, it's like the mud-gate opened.

Rafa lost on clay at 2014 Monte Carlo to Ferrer in the QF
Rafa lost on clay at 2014 Barcelona to Almagro in the QF.
Rafa lost on clay at 2014 Rome to Djokovic in the Final.
Rafa lost on clay at 2015 Rio to Fognini in the SF.
Rafa lost on clay at 2015 Monte Carlo in the SF to Djokovic.
Rafa lost on clay at 2015 Barcelona, again to Fognini, in the R16.
Rafa lost on clay at 2015 Madrid to Murray in the Final.
Rafa lost on clay at 2015 Rome to Wawrinka in the QF.
Rafa lost on clay at 2015 Roland Garros to Djokovic in the QF.
Rafa lost on clay at 2016 Buenos Aires to Thiem in the SF.
Rafa lost on clay at 2016 Rio to Cuevas in the SF.


That's 9 losses on clay prior to the Final in a little more than 2 seasons, about double the amount in the previous 9 years combined.

There is a bit of good news. During this period he did win 5 clay titles with 2014 Roland Garros his 9th there, and his14th and last major title:
2014: Rio [ATP 500] (Dolgopolov), Madrid [Masters 1000] (Nishikori ret.), and Roland Garros [Major] (Djokovic).
2015: Buenos Aires [ATP 250] (Monaco), Hamburg [ATP 500] (Fognini).


On other surfaces he has faced serious troubles, on grass, on hard courts. For most other players, 5 titles on clay in two + years would be fine.

But on clay, for him, the King of Clay, it's a decline of tragic proportions, one that will take a heroic, nay, a herculean effort to overcome. It's not unexpected. It has happened to the best of them.

That said, I still hold out small hope that he can do it if he really wants it. He is too formidable and great a player on clay to write him off completely.

But one has to worry that he will again be tempted by practicing and playing too much on hard courts, where the stamina and patience are generally less needed, but more jarring and risk of injury is higher for him.

Respectfully,
masterclass
 
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ClayDeath

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IF Rafa is going to come back to anywhere near his best there will be obvious signs.

First, you will see him looking more fit. More muscle, less winded, reaching balls with enough time, and the forehand doing consistent damage, winning at least 70% of deciders.

Second, you will see better results on clay.

Signposts to look for:

Semi in Monte Carlo

Final or Win in Barcelona

Madrid irrelevant but at least 3-4 wins needed...

Rome final or win

Bottom line, he needs about 18-20 clay match wins before the RG quarters.

If he can do that, I give him a good chance to win RG.

But if he keeps getting beaten in SF by ordinary mortals or earlier on clay, forget it. Frankly, I don't see it happening this year. He has a lot of work to do if he is going to do it.

Just to put this into perspective, remember his record on clay, or you can go and check it...
Between Jan 2005 and Dec 2013 (9 full years) Rafa lost only 4 matches prior to FINALS on red clay (exc. Madrid's 2012 blue clay loss to Verdasco):

2012: Madrid [Blue Clay] - Verdasco in R16

2009: Roland Garros - Soderling in R16
2008: Rome - Ferrero in R32
2005: Valencia - Andreev in QF
2005: Buenos Aires - Guadio in QF


In Finals in that time period, he lost 3 times to Novak in the Madrid, Rome, and Monte Carlo Masters, twice to Federer in Madrid and Hamburg Masters, and once to Zeballos in Chile in his 1st tournament after 7+ months out.
That's a 267-11 record (including the blue clay loss). That's an unbelievable 96% winning percentage and a 98% finals percentage.
At one point, he won a record 81 straight matches on clay, in over 2 years, between Andreev in Valencia, before being beaten by Federer in Hamburg..
This is almost as pure a surface domination and demolition as one is going to get in this sport.

However, since then, it's like the mud-gate opened.

Rafa lost on clay at 2014 Monte Carlo to Ferrer in the QF
Rafa lost on clay at 2014 Barcelona to Almagro in the QF.
Rafa lost on clay at 2014 Rome to Djokovic in the Final.
Rafa lost on clay at 2015 Rio to Fognini in the SF.
Rafa lost on clay at 2015 Monte Carlo in the SF to Djokovic.
Rafa lost on clay at 2015 Barcelona, again to Fognini, in the R16.
Rafa lost on clay at 2015 Madrid to Murray in the Final.
Rafa lost on clay at 2015 Rome to Wawrinka in the QF.
Rafa lost on clay at 2015 Roland Garros to Djokovic in the QF.
Rafa lost on clay at 2016 Buenos Aires to Thiem in the SF.
Rafa lost on clay at 2016 Rio to Cuevas in the SF.


That's 9 losses on clay prior to the Final in a little more than 2 seasons, about double the amount in the previous 9 years combined.

There is a bit of good news. During this period he did win 5 clay titles with 2014 Roland Garros his 9th there, and his14th and last major title:
2014: Rio [ATP 500] (Dolgopolov), Madrid [Masters 1000] (Nishikori ret.), and Roland Garros [Major] (Djokovic).
2015: Buenos Aires [ATP 250] (Monaco), Hamburg [ATP 500] (Fognini).


On other surfaces he has faced serious troubles, on grass, on hard courts. For most other players, 5 titles on clay in two + years would be fine.

But on clay, for him, the King of Clay, it's a decline of tragic proportions, one that will take a heroic, nay, a herculean effort to overcome. It's not unexpected. It has happened to the best of them.

That said, I still hold out small hope that he can do it if he really wants it. He is too formidable and great a player on clay to write him off completely.

But one has to worry that he will again be tempted by practicing and playing too much on hard courts, where the stamina and patience are generally less needed, but more jarring and risk of injury is higher for him.

Respectfully,
masterclass



great post. this is why Camelot and Discuss Tennis are must read forums.


he would not have lost that match to soderling either if he had exercised better sense. he was hurting in Miami. he took pain pills and even injections.

he was told by his handlers to get out of there. he refused and played a marathon match against del potro. he lost that match and did further damage to his knee. later in the locker room he was seen limping. he was also in much pain in monte carlo.



by the time of his match against soderling at RG, he could not push off that leg too well. he tried but his body said no.

translation: his record was beyond formidable and could have been even more formidable with better attention to fitness and training and less neglect to clay.

he could have been even greater than he became on the red clay. Agassi too found his training and his scheduling suspect during those years.


we were no different at our other forums. general masterclass can attest to that. we too called it like Agassi did. only we did it before Agassi.


it is an absolute free fall and he is comfortable with it. there is only acting, dramatics, and lip service to the media and the sponsors.

there really is no chance he can come back. the fall is too steep now.



it will take 9-12 months of hard work on the fitness front and 6-8 hours of a day practice on clay. he would have to completely embrace clay and completely embrace fitness and physical work in the gym.


then and only then can he start to show signs of his old self again. but the window is so small.


there is only one 2017. and only 1 red clay season in 2017. the work for that should have started already. it should have started right after he went to RG waving a white flag to djokovic.


instead he is planning exos on the indoor hard courts against absolute nobodies. he is going to Indian wells and Miami to get his ass handed to him by unknown players.