ATP 2013/2015 stats comparison
Of course we don't need to see stats to know that Rafa has declined since 2013.
However, sometimes stats can indicate which areas need improvement.
I think the most telling stats are break points saved and break points converted.
This translates into service games and return games won, which is what wins matches.
You can't win if you can't break, and/or you can't win if you can't hold serve.
If both areas are problematic, then one is in trouble, and that is Nadal in the last close to 2 years.
Given that, do we see any reasons from the stats why he might be holding less often and not breaking serve as much?
Not really.
I think the following apply:
1. Fitness:
A. We can see it with our own eyes how much muscle he has lost and along with stamina.
B. Deciders record:
2013 - 93% (14-1) ;
2014 - 71% (10-4);
2015 - 61% (14-9);
2016 - 50% (2-2)
2. Return: Unfortunately, we don't have ground strokes stats indicating depth on return, but again we see with our own eyes that Rafa is returning short and allowing serving opponents to have an advantage from the start of points.
It's difficult to win if you can't break, and it's difficult to break these days if your returns are pitiful.
3. Explosiveness, and speed afoot is difficult to quantify statistically on the court, and is probably also part of fitness.
But I separate it to emphasize it. Visually, one can see he has lost side to side explosiveness-reaction, especially to the forehand side.
Unfortunately the problem is compounded by his tendency over the years to rely on the forehand out of his backhand corner.
He may not get that explosiveness back, but he can certainly improve his court positioning by working on making his backhand more dependable so he doesn't have to run around it as often, which puts him too far out of position to get those shots that go back to his forehand especially with angle. It's just too much ground to cover these days.
4. Forehand: Inconsistent. He can still play some marvelous shots, but more and more frequently he is spraying shots. His timing is erratic at best.
I think this is a result of him trying to change his game, especially for hard courts, where he feels he must be more aggressive.
He's right about that, but trying to adapt has hurt his timing, especially on clay.
He plays a tremendous topspin stroke when he is at his best. The problem is that hitting the topspin requires more time and one has to stand further back.
If you try to play inside the court, you will spray balls trying to hit too much topspin, because you just don't have time.
Then after playing hard courts, he tries to come back on clay, and his timing is again off.
Many times it seems as if he doesn't know if he should play up or back, and sometimes plays in the middle and that's no good either.
In my opinion, Rafa needs to forget about being aggressive, playing inside the court for awhile and go back to what he did best. Stay back, especially on clay, get his timing and distance on his topspin shots consistent.
I think he can only play inside the court when he has extreme confidence in hitting flatter shots and he is nowhere near the level of confidence he had in the USA in 2013.
5. Serve: Rafa was never dependent on his serve alone, and rarely got high speed numbers except for 2010. But his game overall did protect it.
Now his game cannot protect it, and he is not holding as much, especially in key situations like break points and tiebreakers.
Yes, a stronger 1st serve might help him protect it, but that has never been a issue before the other parts of his game deteriorated. Now the second serve is a problem, but that I believe is down to pure nerves. His double faults in key situations are coming too frequently.
6. Mentality/Confidence: This is a by-product of his fitness and poorer play and of course, losing too many matches he should be winning. If he isn't as fit as he needs to be, he is not as patient, going for winners too early, drop shots, changing direction, tough shots, etc. leading to more errors, less confidence and nervousness.
Last, but certainly not least.
7. Dedication/Motivation: Without this, he cannot be committed to his fitness and improving his game. If he is content with what he is doing, raking in the money from sponsors on the back of his 14 majors, modesty, charm, and whatever other positive traits he has, then he is not going to get better on the court. It matters not what he says for public consumption and marketing, it matters what he does to get better results. He'll be 30 this year, and has a lot of miles in him as he started early. The window for him to improve is very small. I don't think he can afford another vacation.
But maybe he has already decided to put more time into other things like his new Tennis Academy in Manacor opening in May or June this year, and is just playing out his remaining career. Only he and his close members of his team know this. We will see what's going on.
Respectfully,
masterclass
P.S. Nice to see some familiar names here. Looks like this forum is getting some good traffic.
