The chase for # of slams and weeks at no.1

Big 3 battle: What will Federer end up with?

  • Federer will keep both records

  • Federer will keep the slam record but lose the weeks at no.1

  • Federer will lose the slam record but keep the weeks at no.1

  • Federer will lose both records


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Moxie

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How have Federer's "skills" diminished post-30? Better yet, how have the skills of Djokovic diminished post-30? His 2018 season was infinitely better than his 2017 season despite him being a year older. And this year, the guys he lost to in numerous events were not early 20's young (see Bautista-Agut and Wawrinka).

You are assuming that just because Tsitsipas beat Djokovic at Shanghai that he is going to be a huge problem going forward. Why? And why can't Djokovic adjust and hit back? You make it sound like Djokovic will be hopelessly unable to adjust or do anything to improve in his H2H series with Tsitsipas if Tsitsipas does start beating him on a regular basis. That is beyond ridiculous.

If Federer had your mentality, he never would have went on a 5-match win streak against Nadal post-35. Your logic here is ridiculous, and according to it, Nadal at 33 should not have beaten a 23-year-old Medvedev. Like I have said many times, it's a good thing Nadal does not think anything like you or Broken because he never would have had the success he did if he had. The same goes for Federer and his post-35 success, which included winning two majors in 5-set matches and beating Nadal 5 times in a row.

I know you have a very odd theory about age not affecting tennis players. IMO, all players diminish post 30. There is no question that they are no longer in their peak or prime. They lose a step, or a nano-second of reaction time. Time wears, and injuries come up more often, even for the more rarely-injured Fed and Novak. There are benefits that come with age, of course. Experience, smart changes to their games. But still, would you say that Roger was better in 2017 than he was in 2004? Yes, Djokovic was better in 2019 than he was during his 2-year walkabout, but he's also more susceptible to injury and upset than he was in, say, 2015/early-16. We all recognize ups-and-downs. For Nadal to be better in 2017-19 than he was in 2015 doesn't mean that age doesn't factor into it. He got past a fallow period, as did Djokovic, as did Fed. Are they better than in their primes? Smarter, probably, but not faster and stronger.

You are being mulish as to what I said about Tsitsipas. Remember that this conversation about the young players being a pool of potential upsets predates Djokovic's loss to Stefanos. Either you've forgotten the point or are deliberately evading it. It's not Tsitsipas himself. It's about a raft of young players who will become increasingly more dangerous. Just look at the current top 100...weighing it in my hand, I'd say it's skewing younger than it has in a decade.

Novak, Nadal and Roger have evaded all comers for so long now because they are monstrously talented. Even in their 30s, they've brushed the field aside. At a certain point, though, the sloping down of their curve and the sloping up of the young players will tend to meet more often. Maybe that takes a long time. I could be wrong and Fedalovic will just keep winning big titles and the youngsters are just another field of Manila Folders. To me, that defies logic.
 

El Dude

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It is so hard to answer this question because things can change so quickly. When I was a kid we had this cat that was pretty much young and healthy fo 17 years, and then all of a sudden grew old almost overnight and was dead a month later. In truth, I think this is how we're supposed to age, if we lead a healthy and active life.

I wonder if some tennis players are like this. My observation is that most follow a trajectory like so: a developmental phase in their teens and early 20s, reaching prime form sometime in the 21-25 range, and then peaking around 25. They then fall a step in their late 20s, and then plateau for a few years: still "prime" but not as good as they were at their very best. And then, at some point, they just completely fall off. But that "post-peak plateau" can last years, and this seems to be the key to the success of the Big Three: they're extending that plateau from the usual 27-31ish into their mid-to-late 30s.

That said, I can see a variety of scenarios, but I think the most likely one is that Rafa and possibly Novak surpasses Roger in Slam count, Novak surpasses him in weeks, but Rafa remains third in that regard. But my hunch is that Rafa will do whatever he has to to pass Roger's Slam count, and Novak will then do whatever he has to to pass Rafa. My guess would be like so:

Slams: Novak 22-23, Rafa 21-22, Roger 20-21.
Weeks at #1: Novak 350ish, Roger 312, Rafa 230-250ish.
Titles: Roger 110ish, Rafa 100ish, Novak 100ish.

I know its crazy to think that Novak, at 32+, can win 6-7 more Slams, but these guys are collectively re-writing the history books.
 
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rafanoy1992

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It is so hard to answer this question because things can change so quickly. When I was a kid we had this cat that was pretty much young and healthy fo 17 years, and then all of a sudden grew old almost overnight and was dead a month later. In truth, I think this is how we're supposed to age, if we lead a healthy and active life.

I wonder if some tennis players are like this. My observation is that most follow a trajectory like so: a developmental phase in their teens and early 20s, reaching prime form sometime in the 21-25 range, and then peaking around 25. They then fall a step in their late 20s, and then plateau for a few years: still "prime" but not as good as they were at their very best. And then, at some point, they just completely fall off. But that "post-peak plateau" can last years, and this seems to be the key to the success of the Big Three: they're extending that plateau from the usual 27-31ish into their mid-to-late 30s.

That said, I can see a variety of scenarios, but I think the most likely one is that Rafa and possibly Novak surpasses Roger in Slam count, Novak surpasses him in weeks, but Rafa remains third in that regard. But my hunch is that Rafa will do whatever he has to to pass Roger's Slam count, and Novak will then do whatever he has to to pass Rafa. My guess would be like so:

Slams: Novak 22-23, Rafa 21-22, Roger 20-21.
Weeks at #1: Novak 350ish, Roger 312, Rafa 230-250ish.
Titles: Roger 110ish, Rafa 100ish, Novak 100ish.

I know its crazy to think that Novak, at 32+, can win 6-7 more Slams, but these guys are collectively re-writing the history books.

I do not like to think super crazy things (it's not my style) but if Novak at 32+ can win 6-7 more slams then I think Nadal at 33+ can win 3-5 slams (if we are basing on re-writing the history books and your opinion).

I understand that Nadal is older than Djokovic but it is only 11 months. Also while Nadal has more injury histories than Federer and Djokovic, Djokovic can easily get injured because he is 32+ years old.
 
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Jelenafan

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I certainly wouldn’t put it past Novak to get 6 or 7 more, once he gets going on a tear he puts in these crazy winning streaks , winning Majors in bunches.
 
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Fiero425

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I certainly wouldn’t put it past Novak to get 6 or 7 more, once he gets going on a tear he puts in these crazy winning streaks , winning Majors in bunches.

Sometimes I feel like I'm in The Twilight Zone with only acknowledgement of Fedal on the tennis scene! Nole's put up crazy numbers over the years, but barely gets an honorary mention! I saw a sport news post online when both Federer and Djokovic were upset early in Shanghai; Federer's name led the article even though he's dropping to #4 soon! It's just unfathomable to see this go on throughout Nole's career since his record has #'s Fedal will never see and has owned this past decade! It would be like lauding Connors' effort in the 90's for still playing while Sampras, Courier, Becker, & Edberg were leading the tour! We're all guilty of it, but people still wonder why Djokovic has this attitude of "not being loved" for some reason as if they don't contribute to his sense of being deprived! :whistle: :nono: :facepalm: :banghead: :cuckoo: :eek: :rolleyes:
 

Nadalfan2013

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Sometimes I feel like I'm in The Twilight Zone with only acknowledgement of Fedal on the tennis scene! Nole's put up crazy numbers over the years, but barely gets an honorary mention! I saw a sport news post online when both Federer and Djokovic were upset early in Shanghai; Federer's name led the article even though he's dropping to #4 soon! It's just unfathomable to see this go on throughout Nole's career since his record has #'s Fedal will never see and has owned this past decade! It would be like lauding Connors' effort in the 90's for still playing while Sampras, Courier, Becker, & Edberg were leading the tour! We're all guilty of it, but people still wonder why Djokovic has this attitude of "not being loved" for some reason as if they don't contribute to his sense of being deprived! :whistle: :nono: :facepalm: :banghead: :cuckoo: :eek: :rolleyes:

Oh please! In the past few years I've seen Djokovic mentioned alongside Federer as the Goat many times by commentators or in the media, despite him trailing Nadal by a few slams... Everyone makes it seem as if the battle is between Djokovic and Federer. So if anything it's Nadal who has been disrespected and lacking acknowledgement everywhere, reduced to merely some clay Goat...

And then Nadal won his 4th USO putting himself only 1 slam away from the record and people are starting to change their tune a little bit. But even now most people still believe that Djokovic will end up with all the records... Sorry but it will be Nadal and not Fedovic who will end up with the slam record, and the nonsense and disrespect will finally end...
 
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GameSetAndMath

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I always had the theory that when Ralph's decline comes, it will be a steep one bordering on total collapse. But, I have been waiting for that to happen and it is not happening.

Actually, he did have a decline by not winning RG twice in a row, but has bounced back.
 
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Moxie

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I always had the theory that when Ralph's decline comes, it will be a steep one bordering on total collapse. But, I have been waiting for that to happen and it is not happening.

Actually, he did have a decline by not winning RG twice in a row, but has bounced back.
People have been talking about the end of Nadal's career since at least 2009...forums and pro sportswriters. He did have a sink and recovered, as has Djokovic, and so has Roger. They are the living dead.
 

atttomole

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I always had the theory that when Ralph's decline comes, it will be a steep one bordering on total collapse. But, I have been waiting for that to happen and it is not happening.

Actually, he did have a decline by not winning RG twice in a row, but has bounced back.
It won’t happen soon my friend. The guy is uniquely resilient. I think he will still be winning slams at age 39.
 

Moxie

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It won’t happen soon my friend. The guy is uniquely resilient. I think he will still be winning slams at age 39.
I don't know that he's "uniquely" resilient. Roger, at 38, is pretty resilient. He went from 4.5 years with no Major wins, to winning 3 in 18 months. That's a pretty astonishing recovery of form, at the top level. And Novak recovered from a 2+ year walkabout. The Big 3 are rewriting history, as El Dude said, for sure. That said, as much as I'm a Nadal fan, I have a hard time seeing him winning even RG at 39. Personally, I think he'll bow out around 36-37. Unless, of course, the youngsters do nothing in the meantime, and he's fit, and he and Novak are still competing for most Majors. I just don't see that happening.
 

the AntiPusher

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Djokovic isn't struggling with the new generation of players at slams. If you want to go down that route though, Medvedev was giving Nadal hell at the USO. Medvedev causes Djokovic a lot of problems but so far none of them have knocked Djokovic out of a slam, including Medvedev so your point above has no bearing on the impact at the slams.
Rafa should have won in straight sets..and you know this Front..
 
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calitennis127

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I know you have a very odd theory about age not affecting tennis players. IMO, all players diminish post 30.

Lol.....how can you possibly say this in light of the recent successes of Wawrinka, Ferrer, Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic? It defies belief that you are still insisting on this after all this evidence to the contrary.

There is no question that they are no longer in their peak or prime.

Why not? And how do you define "peak" or "prime"? Djokovic won Cincinatti for the first time at age 31, in addition to doing the Wimbledon-US Open double. Nadal at 33 just won the French Open, the Rogers Cup, and the US Open. To win the French Open, he beat a guy age 26 and to win the latter two he defeated a 23-year-old. In that sense, undoubtedly, I was happy that Nadal won because he proved me right on this issue.

They lose a step, or a nano-second of reaction time.

Is that why Djokovic won Cincinnati for the first time age 31? Did Nadal not have sufficient reaction time in his win over Medvedev? Did Federer not display sufficient reaction time in his two 5-set wins in Australian Open finals post-35?

Time wears, and injuries come up more often, even for the more rarely-injured Fed and Novak.

That is true of Federer, but in Federer's case we are talking about someone who is over 35. I view 35 more the way you and El Dude view 30.

But still, would you say that Roger was better in 2017 than he was in 2004?

No, but that's not due to skill diminishing so much as subtle declines in quickness and durability. My point has always been that these changes are much more minor than they are often made out to be and often are used as excuses for bad losses when something more significant is at play.

Yes, Djokovic was better in 2019 than he was during his 2-year walkabout, but he's also more susceptible to injury and upset than he was in, say, 2015/early-16.

Right, and who did he lose to early in the year? Bautista-Agut (who is 31) twice - at Doha and Miami, and Kohlschreiber at Indian Wells, who is 35 (3 years older than him). So you're citing three losses to other players 30+ as proof of his decline.

So do you think 35-year-old Kohlschreiber was too young for Djokovic? I guess Kohlschreiber's fresh young legs were too much for him. (Also, Wawrinka is 2 years older than Djokovic.)

For Nadal to be better in 2017-19 than he was in 2015 doesn't mean that age doesn't factor into it. He got past a fallow period, as did Djokovic, as did Fed. Are they better than in their primes? Smarter, probably, but not faster and stronger.

I think you are getting far too down on Djokovic too soon. With Federer I can understand, given how ugly his loss to Dimitrov was and the way he fell apart in the last two sets. But Djokovic has not showed any signs of visible decline yet. Yes, he lost to Bautista-Agut, but that is a major match-up challenge for him and always has been. And the Medvedev loss doesn't look as bad now as it did a couple months ago.

You are being mulish as to what I said about Tsitsipas. Remember that this conversation about the young players being a pool of potential upsets predates Djokovic's loss to Stefanos. Either you've forgotten the point or are deliberately evading it. It's not Tsitsipas himself. It's about a raft of young players who will become increasingly more dangerous.

Like who? Bautista-Agut, Kohlschreiber, and Wawrinka (two of whom are actually older than Djokovic and one of whom is only a year younger)?

Just look at the current top 100...weighing it in my hand, I'd say it's skewing younger than it has in a decade.

You are totally getting ahead of yourself simply because of Medvedev's run lately.....Medvedev could become a problem for Djokovic but there aren't 10 of him. I simply do not see Tsitsipas or Zverev or any of the others (including Mr. Berretini) becoming a serious problem for Djokovic on a regular basis.

I could be wrong and Fedalovic will just keep winning big titles and the youngsters are just another field of Manila Folders. To me, that defies logic.

Yes, because you look at labels and conventions over substance. And 5 years ago when I told people to stop talking about age and look at talent instead, they also told me I was "defying logic." And where are we now? Exactly where I said we would be. I said that Federer would be Top 5 until 35 and that Nadal's movement would not be an issue as he approached 30 and I of course thought Djokovic would keep rolling.....you have to look at the play on the court before all else.

I have also maintained that the issue should not be whether a star player measures up to his best year ever.....that is a ridiculous standard. The fact is that the changes in level with age are so often minute and miniscule and are not as significant as the particulars of certain match-ups or tactics.

Did Djokovic lose to Bautista-Agut and Wawrinka more because of age or the match-up problems posed by those two? Clearly the latter. Djokovic lost to Wawrinka in the French Open final of 2015 and the US Open final of 2016, when you say he was better than he is now. Yet all of the same problems we saw him have in those two matches appeared again this year at the US Open against Wawrinka. The issue is the match-up.....age is just a lazy, weak-minded, unassertive excuse.
 
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calitennis127

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Rafa should have won in straight sets..and you know this Front..

So you don't think Medvedev underperformed in set 1, when he got an early break and Nadal was only serving at 37%? Medvedev should have won that set, and you know this AntiPusher.
 
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the AntiPusher

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So you don't think Medvedev underperformed in set 1, when he got an early break and Nadal was only serving at 37%? Medvedev should have won that set, and you know this AntiPusher.
Hell No..Rafa defeated him 3 weeks earlier 6-3 6-0 in Montreal..That wasn't happenstance. Medvedev had been a beast all summer and only wacky Nicky outclassed him in DC..
Again you think all of Rafa's victories are due to Happenstance..Give it a rest.and give Nadal's game credit.
Nuff Said..
 

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Big 3 might have 1 more slam each in them. Then Next Gen takes over completely.
2020 = big 3 last hurrah.

Novak is losing to too many NextGen guys. Big chance for newbies to win the hard court slams.
Clay King Rafa - nobody has risen enough on clay yet to beat him.
Grass King Roger is just getting too old, losing matches he could have won. But nobody in NextGen has shown much on grass, maybe Stefanos has the game. Rog and Novak still the favorites on grass in 2020.

Nadal/Djokovic will lose their grip on #1 in 2020. Medvedev looks like the real thing, He only needs to carry his last few months consistency to slams.

2020
AO - Novak/Newbie
RG - Rafa/Thiem
WC - Rog/Novak
USO - Newbie
 
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the AntiPusher

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Big 3 might have 1 more slam each in them. Then Next Gen takes over completely.
2020 = big 3 last hurrah.

Novak is losing to too many NextGen guys. Big chance for newbies to win the hard court slams.
Clay King Rafa - nobody has risen enough on clay yet to beat him.
Grass King Roger is just getting too old, losing matches he could have won. But nobody in NextGen has shown much on grass, maybe Stefanos has the game. Rog and Novak still the favorites on grass in 2020.

Nadal/Djokovic will lose their grip on #1 in 2020. Medvedev looks like the real thing, He only needs to carry his last few months consistency to slams.

2020
AO - Novak/Newbie
RG - Rafa/Thiem
WC - Rog/Novak
USO - Newbie
I guess AO 2019 finalist and USO winner was fluke !
 

Jelenafan

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People have been talking about the end of Nadal's career since at least 2009...forums and pro sportswriters. He did have a sink and recovered, as has Djokovic, and so has Roger. They are the living dead.

I would say almost as far back when he first had his breakthrough in 05 there were experts and fans stating Rafa couldn’t keep up his style of play. The impression by some was that he was a faster Thomas Muster who would wear out.

Nadal at this point has won the debate. Even if Rafa does dramatically drop off now he lasted a decade plus longer than all his detractors proclaimed/ predicted ad nauseum.

Sort of like Tom Brady in football, if he drops off It’s because he’s gone beyond the curve expected.