I think Rafa is guaranteed to get to at least 196-197, as Paris is in two more weeks and he should get a week for the 15th, 22nd, and 29th (not sure whether the 194 includes the 15th).
But yeah, he'll probably lose #1 on Nov 5 after Paris, and I wouldn't be surprised if that's it for him. He has a ton of points to defend in the first half of next year, while Novak has very little. And then Rafa sucks in the second half and Novak is strong.
So it could be smooth sailing for Novak, with a relatively easy 60+ weeks at #1 ahead of him...barring surprises. He has a very good chance of passing Connors (268) and Lendl (270), and should also be able to pass Sampras (286) and even Roger (310) if he's able to maintain his dominance into 2020.
But that's a long time away.