Gasquet ain't making the final M. Yeah, he's played well so far, but Stan or Murray are more likely - he'll potentially need to go through both - can't see it myself.
Thiem is an interesting one - I think he wins this in the future but not this year. If Novak somehow flunks this, then maybe he'd be my favourite to get there too..... but maybe not win it.
I'm wondering about your lack of confidence in Novak turning this around though.
I'm also rather surprised at Mastoor. (As
@Twisted said, perhaps an alien has taken over his keyboard. Or maybe a bit of superstition about being too confident.) Novak has been playing tetchy and less than A+ for a while (meaning much of the clay season,) but that has to be at least 50-70% pressure of RG. He hasn't looked poor here, just unsettled.
Thiem is ripening faster than expected, but it would be a shock if he got past everyone to win it all. I hope he makes the SF and plays Novak. But as for Gasquet, I'm with the doubters. I think Murray/Stan would have to collapse for him to overcome both, and I don't think either of them are especially bothered by not being a crowd favorite.
Jumping ahead a bit on Thiem, but I would be sad if he doesn't get through that section, as I'm not as interested in Granollers, Gulbis or Goffin facing Novak.
