Rogers Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

[DarthFed]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

but not against nadal:


he still leads 11-6 against nadal on the hard courts.


as I suggested, many of those wins were total beatdowns.


nadal was not the favorite in this match.

Numbers only mean so much. Look at trends...those show that Nole is getting rattled easily in the big matches against elite players. Since 2012 AO, Nole is 2-5 in GS vs. the other members of the big 3, and his overall record has to be below .500. And one of them is 5 years past his prime and another one is in and out of the game with knee issues. That's a bad trend for Nole.

I thought Nole would come out focused and win in straights, if you told me it'd get to a 3rd set tiebreak I'd bet the house on Nadal without knowing any other details of the match. Trends my friend.

I'm so glad Rafa made the adjustments that he needed to make. It was so important to give Nole a different look today. It's so impressive, really, how Rafa can change the way he plays from surface to surface. Hopefully, he'll carry this aggressive returning mindset throughout the US Open. Love the whole big 4 dynamic. Who will get two slams this year!? Or maybe Fed will surprise us. :blush:

Fed is a spoiler at this tournament, not a true threat to win but he would not be someone anyone wants to see in the QF if he gets there. Fed has no chance at taking out all 3, probably not much chance of taking out 2 but he could upset 1 in the QF possibly.

I think it will be Murray winning again. One thing I just realized about Nole is that he has made the last 6 GS finals played on hards. That is impressive but aside from 2010 USO he seems way more vulnerable now compared to any of the other ones I can think of.

 

[zalvar]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

but not against nadal:


he still leads 11-6 against nadal on the hard courts.


as I suggested, many of those wins were total beatdowns.


nadal was not the favorite in this match.

Numbers only mean so much. Look at trends...those show that Nole is getting rattled easily in the big matches against elite players. Since 2012 AO, Nole is 2-5 in GS vs. the other members of the big 3, and his overall record has to be below .500. And one of them is 5 years past his prime and another one is in and out of the game with knee issues. That's a bad trend for Nole.

I thought Nole would come out focused and win in straights, if you told me it'd get to a 3rd set tiebreak I'd bet the house on Nadal without knowing any other details of the match. Trends my friend.

I'm so glad Rafa made the adjustments that he needed to make. It was so important to give Nole a different look today. It's so impressive, really, how Rafa can change the way he plays from surface to surface. Hopefully, he'll carry this aggressive returning mindset throughout the US Open. Love the whole big 4 dynamic. Who will get two slams this year!? Or maybe Fed will surprise us. :blush:

Good points, Zalvar, and thanks for being my valiant friend on the Chat Threat. Vamos para mañana!

haha anytime. If anything, I needed your support. Yup, can't forget Raonic. He has that .. serve. :angel:

oh and ya, can't forget Delpo for the Open. Def a contender.

 

[zalvar]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

but not against nadal:


he still leads 11-6 against nadal on the hard courts.


as I suggested, many of those wins were total beatdowns.


nadal was not the favorite in this match.

Numbers only mean so much. Look at trends...those show that Nole is getting rattled easily in the big matches against elite players. Since 2012 AO, Nole is 2-5 in GS vs. the other members of the big 3, and his overall record has to be below .500. And one of them is 5 years past his prime and another one is in and out of the game with knee issues. That's a bad trend for Nole.

I thought Nole would come out focused and win in straights, if you told me it'd get to a 3rd set tiebreak I'd bet the house on Nadal without knowing any other details of the match. Trends my friend.

I'm so glad Rafa made the adjustments that he needed to make. It was so important to give Nole a different look today. It's so impressive, really, how Rafa can change the way he plays from surface to surface. Hopefully, he'll carry this aggressive returning mindset throughout the US Open. Love the whole big 4 dynamic. Who will get two slams this year!? Or maybe Fed will surprise us. :blush:

Fed is a spoiler at this tournament, not a true threat to win but he would not be someone anyone wants to see in the QF if he gets there. Fed has no chance at taking out all 3, probably not much chance of taking out 2 but he could upset 1 in the QF possibly.

I think it will be Murray winning again. One thing I just realized about Nole is that he has made the last 6 GS finals played on hards. That is impressive but aside from 2010 USO he seems way more vulnerable now compared to any of the other ones I can think of.

Oh man, Murray. MAYBE. He obv has the skills and now the confidence. He seems to be susceptible to losing to random people out of the blue, though. I'm actually very curious about Murray vs Rafa. They haven't played since Tokyo 2011.

 

[Moxie]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

Djokovic gifted away the first set with double faults, cheap errors, and failing to convert break points.

Good win for Nadal - a classic Nadal win. No double faults, very few errors, and some timely offense here and there when opportunities presented themselves.

Clearly it set your teeth on edge to say that. What about Nadal's more aggressive returning and court position? It was too aggressive from Rafa to be put down to "opportunism." Rafa has made a significant adjustment on HCs and vis-a-vis Nole's game.

 

[britbox]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

I don't think Nadal has made a huge adjustment to Nole's game - although admittedly he is more aggressive in attacking the Djokovic second serve.

Today's match tended to ebb and flow on the quality of the service game and the subsequent return of serve. Nole didn't serve well at all in the first set - it was littered with double faults and without looking up his first serve percentage, I'm pretty sure it wasn't pretty.

Nadal was serving well in the first set, and I think Darth pointed out during the match, some of those body serves were virtually as good as an ace.

In the second set, Nadal's first serve percentage plummeted and Nole was serving a lot better. You saw the reverse - Djokovic going after Nadal's second serve and putting him under pressure.

I don't think Rafa has suddenly found a secret potion to solve Nole. They are pretty evenly matched and usually a small number of critical points makes the difference and determines the outcome. At the end of the day, this match could easily have gone either way. Of the two, I think Djokovic has more upside on what he showed today and I'd still favour him marginally should they meet at the USO.

 

[nehmeth]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

Djokovic gifted away the first set with double faults, cheap errors, and failing to convert break points.

Good win for Nadal - a classic Nadal win. No double faults, very few errors, and some timely offense here and there when opportunities presented themselves.

Clearly it set your teeth on edge to say that. What about Nadal's more aggressive returning and court position? It was too aggressive from Rafa to be put down to "opportunism." Rafa has made a significant adjustment on HCs and vis-a-vis Nole's game.

Well said Moxie.

Rather than opportunism, I would say that Rafa was the one able to bend without breaking (once again). Nole served masterfully at 5-6 to make it to the tiebreak. However upon arrival, he became quite brittle and fell behind 0-6. Congrats to Rafa for being the guy to show up big in the big moments.

:clap

 

[tented]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

Soooo many negative Rafa fans on here! The guy's a giant! He brooks no argument, and he took on a great HC player tonight on a fast court and was magnificent!

well lets rethink this:

74% of you predicted a nole win. were all those people negative too?


I go by the record and I go by the numbers.

nadal also got killed in the very first round at Wimbledon.

nobody in the world predicted a nadal win today. nobody. none of the experts predicited a nadal win.

were they negative too? they were just being objective.


I prefer to be objective.

and that is the only way I will ever call it.

That Crap, Clay.. Moxie and I said that Rafa would win in 3set.. I think my top dawg Tented went with Djoker but that's ok, he may felt it was to much to soon for Rafa although I know he is happy with the results.:clap

I did vote for Djokovic, because I honestly didn't think Rafa would win. My heart wanted Rafa, of course, but my head kept saying no.

And I know I keep saying this, but honestly I still can't believe Rafa won. He hadn't played on a hard court since March. He hadn't played any matches until this week since June. And then he had to play the guy who has owned him on hard courts for years. Also, it's not like Rafa double-bagelled Djokovic. When a match is decided in a decisive set tiebreak, it can go either way.

 

[shawnbm]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

I only saw the last set until 4-4, but that Nadal was playing about as well as I've seen him play on a hard court. Novak, conversely, seemed a wee bit off

 

[kskate2]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

Sounds like I missed a pretty good match last night. Now having seen the match on DVR the biggest thing I noticed is that Nadal appears to be playing the clutch moments better. Since AO 2012 final where Nadal had the lead late in the final set and ended up losing that match he's played better against Novak in the critical junctures. This match, the RG SF, RG final in 2012, Rome and MC 2012.

Just when it appeared Novak had flipped the switch on Nadal in 2011, IMO Nadal has wrestled the tide back in his favor.

Add in Darth's comments about Novak failing to win tight matches against the other top 4 and it does appear mentally he's fallen off the cliff a bit. Outside of the MC final, I'm trying to remember another time this year where we've seen the confident and aggressive Novak.

 

[ClayDeath]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

I don't think Nadal has made a huge adjustment to Nole's game - although admittedly he is more aggressive in attacking the Djokovic second serve.

Today's match tended to ebb and flow on the quality of the service game and the subsequent return of serve. Nole didn't serve well at all in the first set - it was littered with double faults and without looking up his first serve percentage, I'm pretty sure it wasn't pretty.

Nadal was serving well in the first set, and I think Darth pointed out during the match, some of those body serves were virtually as good as an ace.

In the second set, Nadal's first serve percentage plummeted and Nole was serving a lot better. You saw the reverse - Djokovic going after Nadal's second serve and putting him under pressure.

I don't think Rafa has suddenly found a secret potion to solve Nole. They are pretty evenly matched and usually a small number of critical points makes the difference and determines the outcome. At the end of the day, this match could easily have gone either way. Of the two, I think Djokovic has more upside on what he showed today and I'd still favour him marginally should they meet at the USO.

spot on 100%.


lets just say that it was not nole`s day. he was in the thick of the hunt until the breaker.

then in the breaker amazing thing happened for nadal: he managed to focus well and he managed to hold his nerve.


other than standing a little closer to return which nadal did against jerzy as well and going for his forehand, i saw no dramatic adjustments.

nadal had to summon his forehand and go for it a little bit. there are no other options. every damn ball comes back against nole.

nole even admits that he likes playing against nadal because his balls sit up just right form him to blast away.


what we saw was a slow start from nole. nobody objective or reasonable predicted that nadal would win this match.

way too many errors by nadal and significantly shaky off his backhand wing. he lost majority of the longer points. he also missed a number of very easy forehands.


and points wise, it was fairly even. at one point, each had won 58 points.

its a good win for nadal. he can use it to gather some confidence but he has work to do.

he is giving away too many free points on his return of serve and he has to fix his backhand.

he did try to control the center of the court a little bit better so that is a step in the right direction against a player like nole who gives up zero real estate.

 

[ClayDeath]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

but not against nadal:


he still leads 11-6 against nadal on the hard courts.


as I suggested, many of those wins were total beatdowns.


nadal was not the favorite in this match.

Numbers only mean so much. Look at trends...those show that Nole is getting rattled easily in the big matches against elite players. Since 2012 AO, Nole is 2-5 in GS vs. the other members of the big 3, and his overall record has to be below .500. And one of them is 5 years past his prime and another one is in and out of the game with knee issues. That's a bad trend for Nole.

I thought Nole would come out focused and win in straights, if you told me it'd get to a 3rd set tiebreak I'd bet the house on Nadal without knowing any other details of the match. Trends my friend.

negative old sport.


what trends? we are talking about nole and nadal:


nole took away monte carlo from him and he nearly beat him at RG.


nole was 11-5 against nadal on the hard courts going into that match.


that is all anybody needed to know.


did you pick nadal to win this match?

 

[brokenshoelace]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

Djokovic gifted away the first set with double faults, cheap errors, and failing to convert break points.

Good win for Nadal - a classic Nadal win. No double faults, very few errors, and some timely offense here and there when opportunities presented themselves.

Haven't posted since a week before Wimbledon, but I figured this would be a good time to make a comeback, and it's fitting that I'd reply to my favorite sparring partner. I don't disagree with your overall assessment, and it was a classic Nadal win. I'd say he was more than "timely offensive" in the sense that overall, he was more aggressive than he normally is against Novak. But yes, it was his aggression in key moments (as was the case at the FO) that allowed him to win. That said, Nadal made 36 unforced errors. Only a few less than Novak. So he made more than a "few."

The key difference however, is that to me, Novak's unforced errors seemed more...unnecessary. In other words, they were just sloppier in general. Whereas Nadal's errors were a result of him being more aggressive than usual. The risk/reward was worth it.

I think Nadal's cross court forehand having a bit more depth and ferocity in general made a difference, especially with Djokovic not playing as sharp as he normally does. Most importantly, Nadal has been serving better against Novak since the AO at 2012 (despite losing that match). On the ad court in particular, he alters his serving patterns specifically for Djokovic, goes to the body and to the forehand far more than the usual slider out wide.

As far as Novak's serving goes, I actually think he's improved the damage he's able to do with his first serve this year (it was obvious at Wimbledon, but it went AWOL in the final), but this is coming at the expense of consistency (too many doubles, some occasional low serve %). He is producing more aces and unreturnable serves this year though.

Anyway, really good win for Nadal. Best he's looked on hards in a while in terms of good serving and aggressive court positioning. He's actually looked most impressive on hards this year, oddly enough.

 

[shawnbm]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

And welcome back Broken. I always enjoy your insight into the game.

 

[Front242]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

Good to see you back, Broken. I also thought Nadal was hitting a crazy amount of backhand returns right onto the back of the baseline which made it very difficult for Djokovic to adjust to and get back in play. Djokovic's dropped opening service game set the tone for the whole match for me. Got the feeling before it started that Nadal was going to win and after seeing that sloppy opening service game I just felt it wasn't going to be his day. Seems to be a trend of late as many have said. Djokovic is just not sharp under pressure this year and Nadal is. The way Nadal got out of that 0-40 rut having just broken Djokovic proved that well. Not sure the final is going to be anything special but I'll watch a bit of it anyway.

 

[DarthFed]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

but not against nadal:


he still leads 11-6 against nadal on the hard courts.


as I suggested, many of those wins were total beatdowns.


nadal was not the favorite in this match.

Numbers only mean so much. Look at trends...those show that Nole is getting rattled easily in the big matches against elite players. Since 2012 AO, Nole is 2-5 in GS vs. the other members of the big 3, and his overall record has to be below .500. And one of them is 5 years past his prime and another one is in and out of the game with knee issues. That's a bad trend for Nole.

I thought Nole would come out focused and win in straights, if you told me it'd get to a 3rd set tiebreak I'd bet the house on Nadal without knowing any other details of the match. Trends my friend.

negative old sport.


what trends? we are talking about nole and nadal:


nole took away monte carlo from him and he nearly beat him at RG.


nole was 11-5 against nadal on the hard courts going into that match.


that is all anybody needed to know.


did you pick nadal to win this match?

I picked Nole in straights but like I said if you told me before the match it'd go deep in the 3rd set I'd bet the house on Rafa and that's due to recent trends in this H2H, and even more importantly that is due to trends with Nole in general right now. Nole almost took away RG but when it mattered most he froze like a deer in headlights and quickly lost from a break up. Did you see how Nole played in the Wimbledon final in the big moments?? Stats only mean so much.

 

[brokenshoelace]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

The draw at the USO will be interesting that's for sure. Nole isn't winning USO but I wonder if Rafa wants to see Nole in the semi or Murray. Recent history still says Murray is more likely to be upset in GS but Nole is mentally frail at the moment. I much rather Fed gets drawn in Nole's half with a Ferrer QF. Long shot but I can dream.

I'd still go with Murray if I'm Rafa. Even when Murray is red hot, their matches are still close and can go either way. Djokovic can be untouchable, though I agree, he isn't in that kind of form now. I wouldn't write him off as far as not being able to win the US Open though.

 

[Kieran]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

Novak was only "untouchable" during his streak. His default settings are different to this, however, and he can be beaten...

 

[ClayDeath]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

but not against nadal:


he still leads 11-6 against nadal on the hard courts.


as I suggested, many of those wins were total beatdowns.


nadal was not the favorite in this match.

Numbers only mean so much. Look at trends...those show that Nole is getting rattled easily in the big matches against elite players. Since 2012 AO, Nole is 2-5 in GS vs. the other members of the big 3, and his overall record has to be below .500. And one of them is 5 years past his prime and another one is in and out of the game with knee issues. That's a bad trend for Nole.

I thought Nole would come out focused and win in straights, if you told me it'd get to a 3rd set tiebreak I'd bet the house on Nadal without knowing any other details of the match. Trends my friend.

negative old sport.


what trends? we are talking about nole and nadal:


nole took away monte carlo from him and he nearly beat him at RG.


nole was 11-5 against nadal on the hard courts going into that match.


that is all anybody needed to know.


did you pick nadal to win this match?

I picked Nole in straights but like I said if you told me before the match it'd go deep in the 3rd set I'd bet the house on Rafa and that's due to recent trends in this H2H, and even more importantly that is due to trends with Nole in general right now. Nole almost took away RG but when it mattered most he froze like a deer in headlights and quickly lost from a break up. Did you see how Nole played in the Wimbledon final in the big moments?? Stats only mean so much.

so you picked nole in straights just as I did.


So much for your "trend is your friend" theory then old sport.


What if they meet in cincy?

Who will you pick before hand?

 

[DarthFed]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

but not against nadal:


he still leads 11-6 against nadal on the hard courts.


as I suggested, many of those wins were total beatdowns.


nadal was not the favorite in this match.

Numbers only mean so much. Look at trends...those show that Nole is getting rattled easily in the big matches against elite players. Since 2012 AO, Nole is 2-5 in GS vs. the other members of the big 3, and his overall record has to be below .500. And one of them is 5 years past his prime and another one is in and out of the game with knee issues. That's a bad trend for Nole.

I thought Nole would come out focused and win in straights, if you told me it'd get to a 3rd set tiebreak I'd bet the house on Nadal without knowing any other details of the match. Trends my friend.

negative old sport.


what trends? we are talking about nole and nadal:


nole took away monte carlo from him and he nearly beat him at RG.


nole was 11-5 against nadal on the hard courts going into that match.


that is all anybody needed to know.


did you pick nadal to win this match?

I picked Nole in straights but like I said if you told me before the match it'd go deep in the 3rd set I'd bet the house on Rafa and that's due to recent trends in this H2H, and even more importantly that is due to trends with Nole in general right now. Nole almost took away RG but when it mattered most he froze like a deer in headlights and quickly lost from a break up. Did you see how Nole played in the Wimbledon final in the big moments?? Stats only mean so much.

so you picked nole in straights just as I did.


So much for your "trend is your friend" theory then old sport.


What if they meet in cincy?

Who will you pick before hand?

Yes but I picked Nole on the fact that he is generally a much better HC player and it was such a huge match that I thought he'd be dialed in. Well he wasn't and then when it got tight you saw what happened. Nole was the favorite and almost always will be on HC but he was less of a favorite last night than normal if you've been paying attention this year.

They won't meet in Cincy. I doubt Rafa plays and if he does he will lose early. I'd pick Novak and many other players to beat him at Cincy, it is lightning fast conditions.

 

[Riotbeard]

RE: Roger's Cup SF - Djokovic v. Nadal

Novak was only "untouchable" during his streak. His default settings are different to this, however, and he can be beaten...

Depends on which nole shows up... A 2013 monte carlo nole is tougher for nadal than Andy, but the other nole, well...