Rogers Cup, Montreal, Canada, ATP Masters

[Moxie]

Nice job from one Juan Martin. Best he's looked in a while.

 

[Moxie]

Tignor picks Fed to win and Rafa to lose to Sasha in SF. Also, he picks Berdych in the quarter bookended by Domi/Dimi.

I see you've given up on the "Tignor curse." Well-done. Tedious cliche. I don't really like the Berdych pick. I think both Thiem and Dimitrov have more upside, at the moment. It'll be interesting to see if Thiem has over-played to date.

 

[kskate2]

I see you've given up on the "Tignor curse." Well-done. Tedious cliche. I don't really like the Berdych pick. I think both Thiem and Dimitrov have more upside, at the moment. It'll be interesting to see if Thiem has over-played to date.

i guess he can't be too tired from losing in the 3rd round last week. Prior to that he did take 3 weeks off

 

[Moxie]

i guess he can't be too tired from losing in the 3rd round last week. Prior to that he did take 3 weeks off

Then he should definitely beat Berdych, who I think is on the big slide.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I see you've given up on the "Tignor curse." Well-done. Tedious cliche. I don't really like the Berdych pick. I think both Thiem and Dimitrov have more upside, at the moment. It'll be interesting to see if Thiem has over-played to date.

Actually, I support Tignor's pick of Berdych from the third quarter. Domi and Dimi showed us that they are failures in DC. Berdych reached SF in Wimbledon, after all. So, we can say his slump has ended and he may become Mr. QF once again. In Mexico, he played and reached SF (but that is not something to write home about considering he lost to Kokk).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Tower of Greensboro won two back to back 250s and then loses in the opener the moment it becomes an important tourney. This after he wisely managed to skip Washington DC 500.

 

[Moxie]

Tower of Greensboro won two back to back 250s and then loses in the opener the moment it becomes an important tourney. This after he wisely managed to skip Washington DC 500.

Why does it sound like such a diss when you put it like that? Anyway, he was beaten by his better, the Tower of Tandil.

 

[britbox]

Results from the Montreal Masters Men's Singles Round 1 matches on Monday

12-Roberto Bautista (Spain) beat Tim Smyczek (U.S.) 7-6(4) 6-1
Peter Polansky (Canada) beat Vasek Pospisil (Canada) 7-5 6-2
Juan Martin del Potro (Argentina) beat 14-John Isner (U.S.) 7-5 7-5
David Ferrer (Spain) beat Kyle Edmund (Britain) 6-7(5) 6-4 6-3
Ryan Harrison (U.S.) beat Thomas Fabbiano (Italy) 6-3 7-5
Gael Monfils (France) beat Steve Johnson (U.S.) 2-6 7-6(1) 6-1
Benoit Paire (France) beat Donald Young (U.S.) 6-3 5-7 6-4
Mischa Zverev (Germany) beat Norbert Gombos (Slovakia) 6-4 6-7(5) 6-3
Jared Donaldson (U.S.) beat 13-Lucas Pouille (France) 7-6(5) 7-6(8)
Robin Haase (Netherlands) beat Albert Ramos (Spain) 6-3 6-3
16-Nick Kyrgios (Australia) beat Viktor Troicki (Serbia) 6-1 6-2
Richard Gasquet (France) beat Brayden Schnur (Canada) 7-6(5) 5-7 6-1
Adrian Mannarino (France) beat Daniil Medvedev (Russia) 6-3 6-1
Diego Schwartzman (Argentina) beat Reilly Opelka (U.S.) 6-3 6-7(2) 6-4

 

[britbox]

Pre-Montreal Interviews:

 

[britbox]

Nice scalp for Jared Donaldson taking out Pouille. Pouille seems to have hit his ceiling already.

 

[isabelle]

Nice scalp for Jared Donaldson taking out Pouille. Pouille seems to have hit his ceiling already.

Lucas has a poor season compared to 2016, hope he can improve but don't know if he's really focused

 

[Busted]

Tignor picks Fed to win and Rafa to lose to Sasha in SF. Also, he picks Berdych in the quarter bookended by Domi/Dimi.

Well...he's wrong already because Berdych withdrew with a rib injury...

 

[Moxie]

Well...he's wrong already because Berdych withdrew with a rib injury...

I saw this. I was looking at the scores only on the ATP website, which still lists Berdych as playing that match. I turned the TV on late in the first set, and it took me forever to wrap my head around Escobedo playing Basilashvili instead. The American is the LL.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rafa has a tough road.

2nd R - Borna Coric (a guy with a winning record against Rafa although most of the wins are when Rafa was compromised).
3rd R - JMDP (has beaten Rafa even when Rafa was not compromised)
QF - Milos (with local crowd behind him)
SF - Sasha (with momentum)
F - RF (need I say anything)

 

[rafanoy1992]

Rafa has a tough road.

2nd R - Borna Coric (a guy with a winning record against Rafa although most of the wins are when Rafa was compromised).
3rd R - JMDP (has beaten Rafa even when Rafa was not compromised)
QF - Milos (with local crowd behind him)
SF - Sasha (with momentum)
F - RF (need I say anything)

It is a tough road but I still see him at least reach the semifinals.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Good win for the 18 year old Shapo...he did not play particularly great but the way he won, saving multiple match points, gutting out the second set TB, it shows maturity... Good for him.

 

[herios]

Nice scalp for Jared Donaldson taking out Pouille. Pouille seems to have hit his ceiling already.

I doubt Pouille hit his ceiling. No player maximizes their potential at 23y these days. He just fares through a rough period.

 

[Moxie]

I doubt Pouille hit his ceiling. No player maximizes their potential at 23y these days. He just fares through a rough period.

I agree. Pouille is pretty good, but erratic. He seems to me like one of those types that will be dangerous when he's on, but I don't see him becoming reliable. Still, great win for young Donaldson.

 

[kskate2]

Tower of Greensboro won two back to back 250s and then loses in the opener the moment it becomes an important tourney. This after he wisely managed to skip Washington DC 500.

He won 500 points, albeit the hard way. Other than Sascha, who else can say they won 500 points in the last 2 weeks.

 

[El Dude]

I doubt Pouille hit his ceiling. No player maximizes their potential at 23y these days. He just fares through a rough period.

Maybe, maybe not. First of all, it depends upon what you mean by "maximize." Historically speaking, most players tend to reach their absolute peak in the age 24-25 range, but reach their prime in the 20-22 range.

But because you said "these days," I'm thinking you mean prime and not absolute peak, because players not reaching their absolute peak until 23-25ish isn't anything new. There are outliers, but 24-25 is the historical peak for most players. We've talked about this before, and while I tend to agree somewhat with "later peak theory," I don't think the evidence is conclusive. Yet. Why? Because it is only based upon the weakest cohort of players in Open Era history, the guys born 1989-95ish. Most of the top players before--from Rafa, Novak and Andy, but also Del Potro and Berdych--reached a high level (prime) in the age 20-22 range. The younger generation--players born 1995 and later--are just entering that 20-22 prime window, and the only player who looks like a surefire Slam-winner--Alex Zverev--is already showing what could be close to prime form at age 20.

So in other words, the notion that "no player maximizes their potential [reaches prime form] at 23 these days" is only supported by players born 1989 to maybe 1994, that is players turning 23 to 28 this year and who are members of the weakest cohort since the weak group between Rod Laver (b. 1938) and Arthur Ashe (b. 1943) and John Newcombe (b. 1944).

To put that another way, we're going to at least need to see the guys born in the mid-to-late 90s turn 22 to assess whether the beginning of prime range has really been pushed back significantly, meaning we'll have a better idea by 2019 or 2020. I personally like to use first big title as signifying a player entering prime form (prime = close to and including peak, before or after), which means Zverev would now be in his early prime - although probably no more prime than Roger Federer was in 2002, so a "tender prime" (I suspect Sascha will get deadlier over the next few years). But we're going to need to see when his better peers win their first big title, namely guys like Kyrgios (already 22), Rublev and Fritz (both turn 20 in Oct), Tiafoe (19), Shapovalov (18), and also possibly Khachanov (21), Medvedev (21), Coric (21 in Oct), Ruud (18), Donaldson (21), etc.

It could be that the "weak generation" extends through 1996, and Zverev marks the beginning of a stronger group. If that is the case, we won't know if "late peak theory" is true until 2019 at the earliest, when 1997 players turn 22 and should have reached their prime years.