LOL, I'm really not sure what you're on about, dear Fiero, considering this is the first time I've posted in this thread and haven't posted much for a couple weeks now. Is there some old grudge you bear towards me that I'm not aware of?
Kieran said:
There's nothing in this I actually disagree with, except maybe to classify my remarks as "wishful thinking." I'm like any tennis fan, I hope for the best while fearing the worst. We're living through the worst now, but that's inevitable for any tennis player, and their fans. But I also still trust Rafa. This isn't "wishful thinking", it's based upon the calibre of the man and his history. Do I think we'll get a 2013 out of him again? No, but I do expect that somewhere along the line he'll get it right and go on a righteous tear that might garner him another slam or two.
Is that not justified? Or is it wishful thinking?
As for him being in decline, he's obviously in decline, but that doesn't preclude him having an Indian summer before he drops a calf and leaves us...
I hear you, my man. To be honest, I'm torn. I hate the thought of seeing such a great player go out like this, yet I also admit to liking the feeling of Roger's 17 being secure. The bottom line, though, is that I'm going to miss Rafa when he's gone and hope we see another two or three years of better performance from him...although hopefully not too great!
Broken_Shoelace said:
Nadal is not going to play like this for the rest of his career. He'll play better over the course of 2016, of that I'm fairly confident. What I do wonder about is, how much better, and how consistently? I have no doubt he'll have the occasional tournament where he gets hot (29 still seems awfully young to *never* play well again), but I don't think that's the goal, standards, or expectations he's accustomed to.
Because right now, it genuinely seems like he has no shot at beating any really good player. As in, it's not even competitive. I don't think it's wishful thinking at all to suggest that won't be the case next year (you really think that's all he's going to do from now till the rest of his career?), but as far as seriously competing for majors goes, that's the real question mark.
I think this is right, and that an "Indian Summer" is a good way of looking at, and perhaps kinder than "a dead cat bounce." I also think that due to the nature of his game and style, Rafa's Indian Summer might be "hotter" than Roger's, but shorter and with a quicker decline. Rafa is a player of extremes; when he's on, he nigh undefeatable, but he's not on--even in his prime--as consistently as Roger or Novak.
I do think the time to get really worried is if he hits clay season next year and isn't in better form. Also, historically speaking 29 is relatively old. Players are peaking later these days, or at least declining later and having longer plateaus, but in a way Rafa is old school - he was a great player at 19 and it make sense to see him go out earlier. Think of players like Becker and Edberg who were basically done by 29; Sampras was similar, although he had that one lone Slam in 2002 that was really an outlier.
But again, Rafa is such an explosive player that I could see him rising and winning another Slam, maybe two. If Roger's decline is one of slow, steady decline with long plateaus mixed in, then Rafa's is more of tumultuous ups and downs. We just haven't seen much of an "up" so far this year...
