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2016 Olympics Men’s Tennis Preview: Rafael Nadal returns, Novak Djokovic’s gold rush
Steve Tignor
Rafael Nadal returns in Rio, with Novak Djokovic—fresh off a Masters title in Toronto—and a worldwide cast of competitors waiting. (AP)
Tennis players and fans don’t have to wait long for their 2016 Olympics to begin. The draws have already been made, and play starts at the tennis center in Rio on Saturday. With 10 of the world’s Top 20, including Roger Federer, out of the event, this year’s Games obviously begin with a little less anticipation and excitement than they did the last two times, in Beijing and London. Maybe this generation has a been-there, done-that feeling about the Olympic experience by now.
But the two best players in the world, and three of the Big 4—world No. 1 Novak Djokovic, 2012 gold medalist Andy Murray, and 2008 gold medalist Rafael Nadal—have made the trip and sound suitably energized. Two of them, Nadal and Murray, are also carrying their nation's flags.
If this tournament is like most tournaments, once it begins we’ll be talking about who is there, rather than who isn’t. Here’s a look ahead. (FYI: The surface is hard court, and the matches are two-out-of-three sets; the wild card is that there are no tiebreakers in the third.)
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First Quarter
Not only does the tennis event start early, its starts with a bang:
Djokovic faces Juan Martin del Potro in the first round. In London in 2012, the Argentine beat the Serb for the bronze medal. Could we see a repeat upset this time? Probably not: These two have played some good ones over the last four years, but Djokovic has won seven of eight. If anything, the early challenge should help Djokovic leave the butterflies behind. The first seed he could face is No. 14 Jack Sock, in the third round.
Also here: No. 5 seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Semifinalist: Djokovic
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Second Quarter
Nadal hasn’t played a match since pulling out of the French Open with a wrist injury, and he only announced he would
enter the singles in Rio earlier this week. So who knows what we’re going to see from him. History says it should be pretty good, though; Rafa, who won gold in Beijing but withdrew from Londion, is 6-0 in Olympic singles. He’ll start against 43rd-ranked Federico Delbonis, who Nadal has beaten in both of their career meetings. His second-round match would come against either Andreas Seppi or Illya Marchenko. The first seed he could face would be No. 15 Gilles Simon, and the second-highest seed in this quarter is No. 8 David Goffin. Rafa has a good draw.
First-round match to watch: Simon vs. Borna Coric
Possible quarterfinal to watch: Nadal vs. Goffin. They’ve never played; the Belgian has the shots to win, but does he have the stature and belief?
Surprise American: 156th-ranked Brian Baker
Semifinalist: Nadal
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Third Quarter
You know it’s a depleted draw when you see that Gael Monfils is the No. 6 seed. Wouldn’t it be just like La Monf to be playing his best tennis in time to earn an Olympic medal? Actually, it wouldn’t. As it is, he has a potentially tough opener against Vasek Pospisil. Monfils won their meeting in Toronto last week, but Pospisil was in control for much of the first set.
The top seed in this section is No. 4 Kei Nishikori. His manageable path to the medal rounds begins against Albert Ramos-Viñolas; the Spaniard won their last meeting, but they haven’t faced each other in three years.
First-round match to watch: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Marin Cilic. This is an unfortunate opener; both guys have played some solid tennis this summer, and might be in line for a surprise medal run.
Semifinalist: Cilic
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Fourth Quarter
What can Murray do to top his botched, and much-watched,
attempt to hold the U.K. flag for a team photo on Thursday? Perhaps only a repeat gold-medal run will suffice. The 2012 winner begins his defense against Viktor Troicki; that would be a tough start for anyone other than Murray, who is 7-0 against the Serb, and has won six of those matches in straight sets. Murray’s draw doesn’t look like it gets much tougher from there.
Also here: No. 7 seed David Ferrer
Surprise Aussie: 452nd-ranked Thanasi Kokkinakis
Semifinalist: Murray
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Semifinals: Djokovic d. Nadal; Murray d. Cilic
Bronze-medal match: Nadal d. Cilic
Gold-medal match: Djokovic d. Murray