No reason to be overly optimistic about Djokovic at Roland Garros.....

[GameSetAndMath]

What I find interesting, what would happen if Djokovic were to meet Nadal in the QF of RG this year. Say Nishikori plays out of his mind and surpasses Nadal in the rankings. In the event that he loses, it would cost Novak 840 points, but if Nadal were to lose...
So who would take it if they met in the QF?

I'll reply to you and GSM below.

Hopefully in the QF if Rafa drops back to #5! :eyepop :angel: :dodgy:

Actually, I think the best scenario for Novak would be to meet Rafa in Quarterfinals.
Then, it would be easy for Novak to focus on prior matches without distractions. Assuming
he can win out the QF against Rafa, Novak may lose focus little bit in his SF match; but,
his SF opponent is likely to be weaker than his F opponent and so the minor loss of
focus may only cost him a set or two and not the match.

Then, when he comes to the final he will be fully focused and lift the trophy as
his win over Rafa is far back in the rearview mirror.

I don't know who a QF showdown between Djokovic and Nadal would benefit more. Nadal has shown that, starting with 2011 when his confidence was low, the QFs has been when he's picked up his level. Djoker is harder to gauge, as he was taken to 5 in 2012 by Tsonga, but got a walkover by F3 in 2011. Both would know, once the draw comes out that they have to gear up for it. I'd give the edge to Nole, on current form, but it's no easier to judge, IMO, than if they meet SF or Fs.

Just to be clear, I am not necessarily implying that Novak's chances of defeating Rafa is higher
in QF than in SF or F.

What I am saying is Novak's chances of lifting the trophy is higher, if he beats Rafa in QF
as opposed to beating him in SF or Rafa losing early to somebody else.

 

[Moxie]

Your meaning is clear enough. I was addressing PM's, really. It's all just an exercise, at this point.

 

[Denis]

[split] No reason to be overly optimistic about Djokovic at Roland Garros.....

Apologies to the Rafa fans, but these are seriously promising signs for RG.

Sad I missed this one, hoping Pavlik will provide some highlights.

 

[Obsi]

RE: BARCELONA ATP 500 - 20th April to 26th April

While I'm a big fan of Djokovic, I won't get carried away. Last year, Nadal lost to Almagro in Barcelona (QF) and then went on to win French Open.

 

[Denis]

RE: BARCELONA ATP 500 - 20th April to 26th April

While I'm a big fan of Djokovic, I won't get carried away. Last year, Nadal lost to Almagro in Barcelona (QF) and then went on to win French Open.

Obsi, I try to keep telling myself that.

Yet, I was not worried for a single moment when Novak played Nadal at Monte Carlo. That was a first. I have not seen this match yet, but the commentary is quite encouraging.

This year could be it. 'knocking wood'

 

[Federberg]

RE: BARCELONA ATP 500 - 20th April to 26th April

Apologies to the Rafa fans, but these are seriously promising signs for RG.

Sad I missed this one, hoping Pavlik will provide some highlights.

Oh man that's spiteful :snicker

I've been too busy working to even notice Rafa was playing today. What a shock! Am I right in thinking he lost to Fab in the South American swing as well?

 

[Carol]

RE: BARCELONA ATP 500 - 20th April to 26th April

Anyway, been positive I also can think in this way. Even if he doesn't make a good clay season and someone else can take the RG tittle, what! nobody can't take his title as the King of Clay anyway and now that he is healthy he would be fitter for the grass season and be able to get his third title in Wimbledon, everything has a reason and has the bad and the good part

 

[Denis]

RE: BARCELONA ATP 500 - 20th April to 26th April

Yes I would much rather see Novak beating a healthy Nadal playing well... not a knackered version hobbling about.

But a RG trophy would be nicer.

Maybe for you. Maybe even for Nole, but I don't know. Better to go through the reigning champion while he's still playing well and in good health, than to bypass him and beat somebody else. It is only my opinion.

I can kind of see that. I was the one that brought up the infamous Nadal will tank the semis to avoid Novak in the final last year.

I'm sure Novak can beat prime Nadal in a RG final. He has shown to be capable of reaching that level many times, not least in 2011.

But let's not be too chevalrous about all of this. Novak has proven himself against Nadal, now he needs the RG trophy to add to his legacy more than he needs to beat a prime Nadal.

 

[tented]

RE: BARCELONA ATP 500 - 20th April to 26th April

But a RG trophy would be nicer.

Maybe for you. Maybe even for Nole, but I don't know. Better to go through the reigning champion while he's still playing well and in good health, than to bypass him and beat somebody else. It is only my opinion.

I can kind of see that. I was the one that brought up the infamous Nadal will tank the semis to avoid Novak in the final last year.

I'm sure Novak can beat prime Nadal in a RG final. He has shown to be capable of reaching that level many times, not least in 2011.

If he could have, he would have. He didn't, so he couldn't.

 

[Denis]

RE: BARCELONA ATP 500 - 20th April to 26th April

Maybe for you. Maybe even for Nole, but I don't know. Better to go through the reigning champion while he's still playing well and in good health, than to bypass him and beat somebody else. It is only my opinion.

I can kind of see that. I was the one that brought up the infamous Nadal will tank the semis to avoid Novak in the final last year.

I'm sure Novak can beat prime Nadal in a RG final. He has shown to be capable of reaching that level many times, not least in 2011.

If he could have, he would have. He didn't, so he couldn't.

If there would be a world championship for kicking in open doors, I think you would be one of the main contenders.

 

[tented]

RE: BARCELONA ATP 500 - 20th April to 26th April

I can kind of see that. I was the one that brought up the infamous Nadal will tank the semis to avoid Novak in the final last year.

I'm sure Novak can beat prime Nadal in a RG final. He has shown to be capable of reaching that level many times, not least in 2011.

If he could have, he would have. He didn't, so he couldn't.

If there would be a world championship for kicking in open doors, I think you would be one of the main contenders.

Did you really think your statement "I'm sure Novak can beat prime Nadal in a RG final" would go unquestioned?

 

[Denis]

RE: BARCELONA ATP 500 - 20th April to 26th April

If he could have, he would have. He didn't, so he couldn't.

If there would be a world championship for kicking in open doors, I think you would be one of the main contenders.

Did you really think your statement "I'm sure Novak can beat prime Nadal in a RG final" would go unquestioned?

Fair enough.

Point is: defeating Rafa in his prime at RG is really not something Novak should be sentimental about.

He has held up against the guy more than anyone else. Time to move on and clinch the last slam that is missing.

 

[tented]

RE: BARCELONA ATP 500 - 20th April to 26th April

If there would be a world championship for kicking in open doors, I think you would be one of the main contenders.

Did you really think your statement "I'm sure Novak can beat prime Nadal in a RG final" would go unquestioned?

Fair enough.

Point is: defeating Rafa in his prime at RG is really not something Novak should be sentimental about.

He has held up against the guy more than anyone else. Time to move on and clinch the last slam that is missing.

I don't think he's sentimental about it -- unless we're thinking of that word differently.

I have full confidence Novak will win RG. I'm not sure if it will be this year, but it will happen.

 

[Denis]

RE: BARCELONA ATP 500 - 20th April to 26th April

Considering the steep fall Roger and Rafa have been making hitting 29, I'd like to see it happening sooner than later.

For the record, I'm not counting out Rafa. Never count out rafa. But not sentimental for a second about what I am seeing.

 

[Kieran]

RE: BARCELONA ATP 500 - 20th April to 26th April

Maybe for you. Maybe even for Nole, but I don't know. Better to go through the reigning champion while he's still playing well and in good health, than to bypass him and beat somebody else. It is only my opinion.

I can kind of see that. I was the one that brought up the infamous Nadal will tank the semis to avoid Novak in the final last year.

I'm sure Novak can beat prime Nadal in a RG final. He has shown to be capable of reaching that level many times, not least in 2011.

If he could have, he would have. He didn't, so he couldn't.

I'd give prime Rafa about a 25% chance against him... :lolz:

 

[Denis]

RE: BARCELONA ATP 500 - 20th April to 26th April

I can kind of see that. I was the one that brought up the infamous Nadal will tank the semis to avoid Novak in the final last year.

I'm sure Novak can beat prime Nadal in a RG final. He has shown to be capable of reaching that level many times, not least in 2011.

If he could have, he would have. He didn't, so he couldn't.

I'd give prime Rafa about a 25% chance against him... :lolz:

I agree. Something like that seems accurate based on current form.

 

[Kieran]

RE: BARCELONA ATP 500 - 20th April to 26th April

If he could have, he would have. He didn't, so he couldn't.

I'd give prime Rafa about a 25% chance against him... :lolz:

I agree. Something like that seems accurate based on current form.

On current form? At RG? He won't be at current form.

Prime Rafa? Nole would do well to win a set. He took one last year and Rafa was far from prime. Roger got 4 games in 2008.

Don't get me wrong, Nole is much more impressive than Roger in this regard. He's given Rafa the heebie jeebies and now Rafa has two of the games great rivalries to remember, with Roger as he started and Nole to the death, but given the record of the two over five on clay, it's hard to see anything other than severe pain for the rampant Serb lad...

 

[Denis]

RE: BARCELONA ATP 500 - 20th April to 26th April

I'd give prime Rafa about a 25% chance against him... :lolz:

I agree. Something like that seems accurate based on current form.

On current form? At RG? He won't be at current form.

Prime Rafa? Nole would do well to win a set. He took one last year and Rafa was far from prime. Roger got 4 games in 2008.

Don't get me wrong, Nole is much more impressive than Roger in this regard. He's given Rafa the heebie jeebies and now Rafa has two of the games great rivalries to remember, with Roger as he started and Nole to the death, but given the record of the two over five on clay, it's hard to see anything other than severe pain for the rampant Serb lad...

So Nadal has been in decline since 2011? That's a bit too convenient of an argument. Novak took him to 5 in 2013 alone, which was one of the best years Rafa had.

 

[Kieran]

RE: BARCELONA ATP 500 - 20th April to 26th April

I agree. Something like that seems accurate based on current form.

On current form? At RG? He won't be at current form.

Prime Rafa? Nole would do well to win a set. He took one last year and Rafa was far from prime. Roger got 4 games in 2008.

Don't get me wrong, Nole is much more impressive than Roger in this regard. He's given Rafa the heebie jeebies and now Rafa has two of the games great rivalries to remember, with Roger as he started and Nole to the death, but given the record of the two over five on clay, it's hard to see anything other than severe pain for the rampant Serb lad...

So Nadal has been in decline since 2011? That's a bit too convenient of an argument. Novak took him to 5 in 2013 alone, which was one of the best years Rafa had.

Nole's been his toughest opponent the last 3 years, but in 2013, well, shoulda been done in four. I think Rafa at his most rampant, Nole would be lucky to get a set (kinda like 2012 when they played on in a swamp :cover ). We shouldn't forget how great Rafa can be on this surface, even if this season and last he's been relatively dire going into RG. Still, last year Nole only took a set off him, and that wasn't peak Rafa...

 

[Denis]

RE: BARCELONA ATP 500 - 20th April to 26th April

On current form? At RG? He won't be at current form.

Prime Rafa? Nole would do well to win a set. He took one last year and Rafa was far from prime. Roger got 4 games in 2008.

Don't get me wrong, Nole is much more impressive than Roger in this regard. He's given Rafa the heebie jeebies and now Rafa has two of the games great rivalries to remember, with Roger as he started and Nole to the death, but given the record of the two over five on clay, it's hard to see anything other than severe pain for the rampant Serb lad...

So Nadal has been in decline since 2011? That's a bit too convenient of an argument. Novak took him to 5 in 2013 alone, which was one of the best years Rafa had.

Nole's been his toughest opponent the last 3 years, but in 2013, well, shoulda been done in four. I think Rafa at his most rampant, Nole would be lucky to get a set (kinda like 2012 when they played on in a swamp :cover ). We shouldn't forget how great Rafa can be on this surface, even if this season and last he's been relatively dire going into RG. Still, last year Nole only took a set off him, and that wasn't peak Rafa...

Since 2011 Novak leads the h2h on clay 5-4 including 4 straightset wins. You're selling Novak short by a large margin.