No reason to be overly optimistic about Djokovic at Roland Garros.....

[DarthFed]

Well, my point is, if Roger could win the FO after somebody else did the heavy lifting on Rafa, I don't see a single reason why Nole can't. In 2009, Roger was looking far more shaky than Novak looks now. In fact, Novak looks secure and assured of his place and he's been aiming to go through Rafa to get the crown, something Roger hasn't realistically dreamt of at a major in a long time, and certainly never in Paris.

As for Nole v The Rest on clay, the man has about 6 MS titles on clay, maybe more. I don't see The Rest as being any more problematical for him, than they were/are for Roger...

Roger made 4 straight finals (5 straight if we count the de facto final in 2005 semis) compared to Nole doing 2 out of 3 (3 straight counting the de facto final in the 2013 semis). In 2011 Nole lost to a Roger who was in the middle of a terrible season. Not much different circumstances for Roger 3 years later. Even in 2012 you had Nole facing match points vs. lowly clay court player Tsonga. Roger up until 2010 was a slam dunk everywhere except vs. Rafa and the 2008 AO which we won't bother going into again. 2009 RG was the closest call he had and that happened after the enormous amount of pressure following Rafa's loss.

The part about Nole aiming to go through Rafa has nothing to do with the discussion.

 

[Kieran]

Roger made 4 straight finals (5 straight if we count the de facto final in 2005 semis) compared to Nole doing 2 out of 3 (3 straight counting the de facto final in the 2013 semis). In 2011 Nole lost to a Roger who was in the middle of a terrible season. Not much different circumstances for Roger 3 years later. Even in 2012 you had Nole facing match points vs. lowly clay court player Tsonga. Roger up until 2010 was a slam dunk everywhere except vs. Rafa and the 2008 AO which we won't bother going into again. 2009 RG was the closest call he had and that happened after the enormous amount of pressure following Rafa's loss.

The part about Nole aiming to go through Rafa has nothing to do with the discussion.

It absolutely does: it shows the extent of Nole's ambition and his ability.

As for the rest of it, Novak has been beaten by Rafa 6 times in Paris by now, 3 times in the semi and twice in the final. Obviously, this speaks for itself. Is Nole better than Roger on clay? Well, he is against Rafa, that's for certain, and he's driven Rafa to five sets in Paris, which Roger never did. He's got more MS titles on clay than Roger and he would be considered in this era to be what Roger was before him, the man most likely to, if Rafa fails.

I don't see any reasonable case being put forward to suggest that Nole would struggle to park the car, once somebody else drove Rafa off the track...

 

[Riotbeard]

One difference that can be taken from MC this year is that in the past when Novak straight setted rafa on clay, he had to do so playing extraordinary tennis. At MC this year, he merely played well and beat Rafa 6-3, 6-3. It never felt like he was playing out of himself or swinging for the fences. This says more about the ground Rafa has to make up in a month, and the question is does he have it in him, and is his body capable. I don't know either way.

 

[DarthFed]

Roger made 4 straight finals (5 straight if we count the de facto final in 2005 semis) compared to Nole doing 2 out of 3 (3 straight counting the de facto final in the 2013 semis). In 2011 Nole lost to a Roger who was in the middle of a terrible season. Not much different circumstances for Roger 3 years later. Even in 2012 you had Nole facing match points vs. lowly clay court player Tsonga. Roger up until 2010 was a slam dunk everywhere except vs. Rafa and the 2008 AO which we won't bother going into again. 2009 RG was the closest call he had and that happened after the enormous amount of pressure following Rafa's loss.

The part about Nole aiming to go through Rafa has nothing to do with the discussion.

It absolutely does: it shows the extent of Nole's ambition and his ability.

As for the rest of it, Novak has been beaten by Rafa 6 times in Paris by now, 3 times in the semi and twice in the final. Obviously, this speaks for itself. Is Nole better than Roger on clay? Well, he is against Rafa, that's for certain, and he's driven Rafa to five sets in Paris, which Roger never did. He's got more MS titles on clay than Roger and he would be considered in this era to be what Roger was before him, the man most likely to, if Rafa fails.

I don't see any reasonable case being put forward to suggest that Nole would struggle to park the car, once somebody else drove Rafa off the track...

We are discussing a scenario where Rafa loses before facing Nole. Remind me how talking about him wanting to go through Rafa while Roger apparently cowers away from Rafa has anything to do with that?

I think Roger and Nole are tied in MS events on clay now, 6 a piece I believe.

 

[Kieran]

We are discussing a scenario where Rafa loses before facing Nole. Remind me how talking about him wanting to go through Rafa while Roger apparently cowers away from Rafa has anything to do with that?

No, that came up when I mentioned how strong Nole looks this year compared to Roger in 2009:

"In 2009, Roger was looking far more shaky than Novak looks now. In fact, Novak looks secure and assured of his place and he's been aiming to go through Rafa to get the crown, something Roger hasn't realistically dreamt of at a major in a long time, and certainly never in Paris."

I think Roger and Nole are tied in MS events on clay now, 6 a piece I believe.

So then there's no real reason to think Nole has less chance than Roger, given that he has such a great record in clay, and especially recently against Rafa...

 

[DarthFed]

^ Nole's record on clay isn't good yet, just like Roger's wasn't until 2009...

As for the rest, shaky or not, there was no reason to think Roger wouldn't beat everyone at RG except Nadal that year. Same can be said for Nole this year, we are just arguing what upset was more likely, Roger losing in 2009 or Nole losing now. On paper it seems like a fool's errand to compare something that's happened to something in the future especially when we are talking 2 different players. I'd just say a loss by Nole to Roger or someone else at RG this year wouldn't shock me as much as Roger losing to someone aside from Nadal in 2009.

 

[Kieran]

Fool's errand? Brother, that's a founding principle of all discussion forums... :laydownlaughing

 

[nehmeth]

I'd just say a loss by Nole to Roger or someone else at RG this year wouldn't shock me as much as Roger losing to someone aside from Nadal in 2009.

uzzled

It would shock me a helluva lot more...

 

[Fiero425]

I'd just say a loss by Nole to Roger or someone else at RG this year wouldn't shock me as much as Roger losing to someone aside from Nadal in 2009.

uzzled

It would shock me a helluva lot more...

It's the reason I've called the ATP "gutless" for so many years! It's not like I want an upset of the top players, but it should occur more often! The 2nd and 3rd tier players have opportunities and can be as close as match point, but find a way to give it back so we have the same semi's and finals for most majors and Masters' events! Last season was the first time there was a real breakthrough except at the FO of course! That's been about as routine as "love in Paris in the spring!" Soderling should get more credit for his 2 finalist runs back in '09 & '10! The women have outdone the men in that respect, having a variety of winners; some true "dark horses" taking major titles over the years of late! We can only hope the trend continues; unless Nole's vying for the title of course! :angel: :dodgy: If he's going to make a significant mark and impression on Roger and Rafa's fandom, it has to be this season with such a historic beginning! I think 2011 can wind up being just a footnote to his career if he plays it smart; and so far Nole's been very smart and judicious in his play! :clap :angel: :dodgy:

 

[DarthFed]

I'd just say a loss by Nole to Roger or someone else at RG this year wouldn't shock me as much as Roger losing to someone aside from Nadal in 2009.

uzzled

It would shock me a helluva lot more...

I don't think it will happen...hopefully not anyways.

 

[Haelfix]

Yea, it was far from a sure thing that Federer was going to get through in 2009, he was already far from his prime years on the surface, and he was never quite the same genius on clay as he was on hards/grass from a point construction perspective.

He was already losing his baseline game and other players were easily keeping up with him. It was a test of his great physical endurance and some pretty clutch play that won him that title.

I think Novak is more of a sure thing against the rest of the field than Federer was at the time. I mean other than a singular throwback game of genius like Roger had in 2011, or perhaps an Andy Murray or David Ferrer master class, I just don't see anyone having much of a shot on this surface against Novak, unless the latter has a real bad day (which he hasn't been having recently).

I also think that it wouldn't be a stretch if Novak beat Rafa. To be honest, neither one looks as sharp as they were in 2011 and all it takes is a cold day at RG and you might end up with Novak being able to impose his bh on the Rafa FH.

 

[Denis]

Yea, it was far from a sure thing that Federer was going to get through in 2009, he was already far from his prime years on the surface, and he was never quite the same genius on clay as he was on hards/grass from a point construction perspective.

He was already losing his baseline game and other players were easily keeping up with him. It was a test of his great physical endurance and some pretty clutch play that won him that title.

I think Novak is more of a sure thing against the rest of the field than Federer was at the time. I mean other than a singular throwback game of genius like Roger had in 2011, or perhaps an Andy Murray or David Ferrer master class, I just don't see anyone having much of a shot on this surface against Novak, unless the latter has a real bad day (which he hasn't been having recently).

I also think that it wouldn't be a stretch if Novak beat Rafa. To be honest, neither one looks as sharp as they were in 2011 and all it takes is a cold day at RG and you might end up with Novak being able to impose his bh on the Rafa FH.

Hey Healfix, I like your post, but I don't think we will live to see the day of a Ferrer masterclass :snicker.

Besides fed and Rafa, I could see Raonic, Nishikori, Isner, and del Potro seriously bother Novak in a match at the French. The match against Raonic last year was already quite unpleasant to watch. Hope they all end up in feds half.

 

[Mile]

It will be very important to see the draw first. So many options. Some are saying 5 sets are better for Nadal, but he isnt at that level as before. If he gets few times to 4 or 5 sets and than meet with Djoker, that wont be easy task.

But lets see this few more tournamets till RG. Will be more clear.

 

[Haelfix]

Novak is a terrible matchup for DelPotro for whatever reason, so I just don't see it. I could see a Raonic/Isner problem, but then these guys never quite get over the hump despite making it close.

I don't think Nishikori has enough firepower, and yea its tough on Ferrer too for the same reason (although, although he has made it a close thing on occasion).

Maybe an inspired Tsonga performance or someone like Verdasco.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

If someone else beats Rafa before Nole, I don't see why Nole wouldn't be able to win the tourney, and possibly even do it without any drama. Why not? Roger did, and I don't see why anyone could think he'd be better than Nole, for this scenario.

A tougher one is if Nole was to defeat Rafa in a brutal, long five set squabble in the semis, then he might struggle to recover for the final. Look at his hangover yesterday, and he was only facing Berdych. Against Berdych, or Ferrer, he'd take it. But imagine if he faced someone who turned up like Cilic at the USO, playing like a tennis giant? I think he might buckle there. I think he might not recover his wits in time to handle it...

1. Roger did have a hard time after Ralph was knocked out by Soderling: he almost/"should have" lost to Hass who had him on the ropes;
2. Novak's "hangover" yesterday might have been partly due to defeating Nadal, but fair to say was also due to having played an extraordinary amount of tennis this year and won more at this point in the season than anyone has in tennis history, i.e. exhausting! The cool, damp, windy conditions also contributed to the error count and Berdy's ability to line up his pounding shots.

To answer the OP's question, at least two things are different this year: 1)IMHO, despite some (including Nadal) stating that the MC results were very encouraging, almost everyone in a candid moment will admit that Nadal is on some kind of decline and will never be what he was on a consistent basis; and 2)Nole has altered/added variety to his game (e.g., serve and volley) and is playing with a mental calmness that he hasn't had since 2011. Personally, I think someone else is going to take out Nadal before he and Novak square off, but we shall see!

I'm not willing to join the decline bandwagon for Rafa until this season is done. This is an all time great we're talking about. Mere mortals might be devastated by a RG loss, it might set Rafa off on a rampage. Fedal are a special breed, not just in tennis, but in sporting history. But I'll admit, it's not looking great right now. I'm not one to watch Rafa matches generally, but I think I'll make a special effort come RG to watch everyone. You never know it could be history in the making

wut ?..nadal has clearly declined. whichever way you look at it..inferior movement, mental lapses, shanking, more defeats. less stamina/physical fade aways..

and whats his record since last June's French open ?..prob around 27-11 or thereabouts.

 

[El Dude]

25-11 by my count, so you're close - a great guess, if that it is what you did (or I'm wrong ).

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

25-11 by my count, so you're close - a great guess, if that it is what you did (or I'm wrong ).

it was a guess. I really couldn't be bothered to check.

 

[Moxie]

Novak is a terrible matchup for DelPotro for whatever reason, so I just don't see it. I could see a Raonic/Isner problem, but then these guys never quite get over the hump despite making it close.

I don't think Nishikori has enough firepower, and yea its tough on Ferrer too for the same reason (although, although he has made it a close thing on occasion).

Maybe an inspired Tsonga performance or someone like Verdasco.

Del Potro says he'll be playing at RG this year, but I don't see how he'll be in any kind of match shape for best of 5, esp. on clay, so that's not really an issue, I'm thinking. Nishikori, however, could be a bother or an upset. Just think back to the USO SF last year. Tsonga on a red-hot day. And Verdasco is an interesting mention, because he's ranked 37 at the moment, and so he could get Novak early.

 

[the AntiPusher]

As usual, we have to rifle through my brother Cali's post, scan it for the barbs, the propaganda, the modern day heresies, and wonder what he's really saying. Basically, he's making useful points, but really he's skipping the main part, which is that even in his worst year on clay, Rafa beat Nole in 4 in the final last year.

Cali is the main proponent of the heresy that when Rafa faces Nole, it's on Nole's racket but somehow he lets it slip. See the plausible words about "solidifying leads" and that Nole "buckles when he is ahead and has a chance to put the finishing touches on a match against Nadal." It almost screams, "Nole, you muppet, how could you lose! It's only Rafa, FFS, and RG!"

An alien stopping by for a sup of water reading this would be easily fooled into thinking that beating Rafa is kids play and Nole is the biggest self-harming culprit there is.

I agree with GSM to a large extent, except obviously the same thing Moxie picked out at the end of it, and of course the sappy wishful stuff about Federer, which I don't really disagree with at all. I mean, it's your prerogative to dream, and maybe you typed that bit in bed, buddy.

This year reminds me of a Saturday afternoon action flick: Rafa the Hero has been roused from his sleep, but can he arm himself before the villains raid the castle and bash his brains in. Last year's film was the best. The lead villain even got so far as to put the dagger at young Ralph's throat before - with a leap and a bound! - he was free and smiting his foe. This, basically, is what it is, a race against time for Rafa, and the rest left wondering how they plot their course in the meantime.

Some statistical facts which are inescapable: nobody ever won a major six years straight, and nobody ever won ten majors. And of course, the final truth: Rafa someday has to lose. Nole looks most likely but it could be a strange RG, with the Unknown Soldier winning everything, and looking as natural as anything doing it. We don't know. Until it's over, only one thing is true: Rafa is the favourite to win it, and you should get good odds on the rest...

God bless you Brother K, u know there is some type of Cali understood only madness behind that post. It's like when my ex wife tells me she is happy for me when she would rather see me tortured in a Turkish prison

 

[Fiero425]

As usual, we have to rifle through my brother Cali's post, scan it for the barbs, the propaganda, the modern day heresies, and wonder what he's really saying. Basically, he's making useful points, but really he's skipping the main part, which is that even in his worst year on clay, Rafa beat Nole in 4 in the final last year.

Cali is the main proponent of the heresy that when Rafa faces Nole, it's on Nole's racket but somehow he lets it slip. See the plausible words about "solidifying leads" and that Nole "buckles when he is ahead and has a chance to put the finishing touches on a match against Nadal." It almost screams, "Nole, you muppet, how could you lose! It's only Rafa, FFS, and RG!"

An alien stopping by for a sup of water reading this would be easily fooled into thinking that beating Rafa is kids play and Nole is the biggest self-harming culprit there is.

I agree with GSM to a large extent, except obviously the same thing Moxie picked out at the end of it, and of course the sappy wishful stuff about Federer, which I don't really disagree with at all. I mean, it's your prerogative to dream, and maybe you typed that bit in bed, buddy.

This year reminds me of a Saturday afternoon action flick: Rafa the Hero has been roused from his sleep, but can he arm himself before the villains raid the castle and bash his brains in. Last year's film was the best. The lead villain even got so far as to put the dagger at young Ralph's throat before - with a leap and a bound! - he was free and smiting his foe. This, basically, is what it is, a race against time for Rafa, and the rest left wondering how they plot their course in the meantime.

Some statistical facts which are inescapable: nobody ever won a major six years straight, and nobody ever won ten majors. And of course, the final truth: Rafa someday has to lose. Nole looks most likely but it could be a strange RG, with the Unknown Soldier winning everything, and looking as natural as anything doing it. We don't know. Until it's over, only one thing is true: Rafa is the favourite to win it, and you should get good odds on the rest...

God bless you Brother K, u know there is some type of Cali understood only madness behind that post. It's like when my ex wife tells me she is happy for me when she would rather see me tortured in a Turkish prison

It's a sad world we live in when it doesn't matter which way you express yourself! It inevitably will be thought disingenuous; and we expect that in a civilized society! :nono :cover :dodgy: