Nitto ATP Finals 2023, Turin, Italy

[MargaretMcAleer]

Zverev wins with a great T serve, he now leads the H2H 4-3, it took 3 sets, 67(3) 63 64 though Charly's form is still 'scratchy'

 

[nehmeth]

Zverev wins with a great T serve, he now leads the H2H 4-3, it took 3 sets, 67(3) 63 64 though Charly's form is still 'scratchy'

I thought Carlos would have had this one. He did not look consistent or in control…. what’s going on?

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I thought Carlos would have had this one. He did not look consistent or in control…. what’s going on?

The conditions are quick, I dont think Charly adjusted well, lets see how he plays in his next match, he made some UFE that normally he would not make, Zverev deserved his win, his serve helped him in the fast conditions.

 

[El Dude]

One thing to consider with regards to Alcaraz is that expectations were stratospheric after last year: one of the five or so best seasons by a teenager in Open Era history. This year, by my accounting, he was even better. He won the same number of big titles (1 Slam, 2 Masters), but went deeper in Slams and added an ATP 250.

Perhaps the expectation, at least subconsciously, was that he would continue his stratospheric rise and utterly dominate. What he did was consolidate and plug the gaps a bit. And this is pretty much what most great players do at an early stage, after their initial arrival at elite status. Rafa pretty much plateaued for three years (2005-07) before taking a big step forward in 2008. Novak floundered a bit from 2007-10, with 2008 being the best of those four, but then a downward turn in 2009-10 before taking a big jump forward in 2011. Sampras did the same in 1990-92, before jumping forward in '93. Borg, too, with a consolidation phase in 1974-77, before jumping in 1978.

The point being, many--even most--all-time greats have a consolidation phase once they reach elite level, and then take another few years to reach--often in a big jump--their peak level. It seems to be the typical pattern.

Roger turns out to be a bit of an outlier, his incline being more linear, with an upward trajectory from 2002-04 and no period of consolidation until he reached his peak level in 2004. Connors was a bit similar in that he rose steeply to 1974, had his best year, and then pretty much plateaued and didn't have another jump in him.

There are variations of all kinds, but again, the "consolidation phase" of a few years seems to be the norm.

Anyhow, what this means for Alcaraz is that what we're seeing this year is right in line with typical patterns and we might see it for a bit longer, with another jump possible in another year or two. Maybe next year, but more likely in 2025 or '26.

I suppose there's always the "Courier-Hewitt Concern": that is, that he reaches elite level, hangs there for a few years, then falls. I don't see that for Carlos. I think the worst-case scenario would be more like Becker: Rises to elite status in his teens, plateaus a bit, has an even better season or two later on, but doesn't really have that next big jump. Once Becker reached his elite form it was more up and down for the next decade, without a clear big jump.

The more likely scenario, though, is that Alcaraz plays at about his current level for another year or two, then has another jump in 2025 or '26.

 

[nehmeth]

The conditions are quick, I dont think Charly adjusted well, lets see how he plays in his next match, he made some UFE that normally he would not make, Zverev deserved his win, his serve helped him in the fast conditions.

His timing looked off on a number of shots. I think he will make the adjustments in time.

 

[nehmeth]

One thing to consider with regards to Alcaraz is that expectations were stratospheric after last year: one of the five or so best seasons by a teenager in Open Era history. This year, by my accounting, he was even better. He won the same number of big titles (1 Slam, 2 Masters), but went deeper in Slams and added an ATP 250.

Perhaps the expectation, at least subconsciously, was that he would continue his stratospheric rise and utterly dominate. What he did was consolidate and plug the gaps a bit. And this is pretty much what most great players do at an early stage, after their initial arrival at elite status. Rafa pretty much plateaued for three years (2005-07) before taking a big step forward in 2008. Novak floundered a bit from 2007-10, with 2008 being the best of those four, but then a downward turn in 2009-10 before taking a big jump forward in 2011. Sampras did the same in 1990-92, before jumping forward in '93. Borg, too, with a consolidation phase in 1974-77, before jumping in 1978.

The point being, many--even most--all-time greats have a consolidation phase once they reach elite level, and then take another few years to reach--often in a big jump--their peak level. It seems to be the typical pattern.

Roger turns out to be a bit of an outlier, his incline being more linear, with an upward trajectory from 2002-04 and no period of consolidation until he reached his peak level in 2004. Connors was a bit similar in that he rose steeply to 1974, had his best year, and then pretty much plateaued and didn't have another jump in him.

There are variations of all kinds, but again, the "consolidation phase" of a few years seems to be the norm.

Anyhow, what this means for Alcaraz is that what we're seeing this year is right in line with typical patterns and we might see it for a bit longer, with another jump possible in another year or two. Maybe next year, but more likely in 2025 or '26.

I suppose there's always the "Courier-Hewitt Concern": that is, that he reaches elite level, hangs there for a few years, then falls. I don't see that for Carlos. I think the worst-case scenario would be more like Becker: Rises to elite status in his teens, plateaus a bit, has an even better season or two later on, but doesn't really have that next big jump. Once Becker reached his elite form it was more up and down for the next decade, without a clear big jump.

The more likely scenario, though, is that Alcaraz plays at about his current level for another year or two, then has another jump in 2025 or '26.

The media scrutiny/hype did not help him any. To fill the Fedal vacuum, I think they pushed things too quickly. He’s a great kid with a promising future.

 

[Kieran]

I thought Carlos would have had this one. He did not look consistent or in control…. what’s going on?

I tend to put it down to growing pains, pressure, the levels of expectation he puts on himself, and what others put onto him. Inexperience. Impatience, and the fact that other players are onto him and his ambitions, and using them against him.

I think he'll get everything right eventually, but we're asking a lot of him at his age if we expect him to be much better than he is, or to be perfect...

 

[don_fabio]

His timing looked off on a number of shots. I think he will make the adjustments in time.

He started to return better a bit too late in a match and decided to hang in rallies instead of going for the shots early in the point. Last 2 games on Zverev serve he almost got the break, but Zverev played 2 DTL passing shots which just caught the line, that was on crucial points. Zverev was in good rhytm on his serve for almost the whole match, otherwise he would never won it.

Did you see Zverev fall and it looked like he was about to get injured again? It was mid 3rd set. Every time Zverev slips and falls I just think he is going to twist his leg or something.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

He started to return better a bit too late in a match and decided to hang in rallies instead of going for the shots early in the point. Last 2 games on Zverev serve he almost got the break, but Zverev played 2 DTL passing shots which just caught the line, that was on crucial points. Zverev was in good rhytm on his serve for almost the whole match, otherwise he would never won it.

Did you see Zverev fall and it looked like he was about to get injured again? It was mid 3rd set. Every time Zverev slips and falls I just think he is going to twist his leg or something.

Don,
When he rolled his ankle I thought Oh No, though he did recover well

 

[nehmeth]

Did you see Zverev fall and it looked like he was about to get injured again? It was mid 3rd set. Every time Zverev slips and falls I just think he is going to twist his leg or something.

Yes. Made me jump in my chair. Hopefully it’s nothing bad.

 

[tented]

Alcaraz/Zverev stats:

 

[the AntiPusher]

If Sasha makes the semis vs Janik . Get your popcorn ready. Their U$ open match to me was the best match of the season.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

If Sasha makes the semis vs Janik . Get your popcorn ready. Their U$ open match to me was the best match of the season.

The conditions here in Turin are much quicker than the USO, let see if both players make it, Zverev's serve held up well in his match against Charly, he is also a 2 time winner at the ATP finals, even though his game bores me to tears
I suggest you watch the final in Vienna Meddy v Sinner, that was one of the best matches this year, in my opinion.

 

[Fiero425]

I thought Carlos would have had this one. He did not look consistent or in control…. what’s going on?

What do they call it; GROWING PAINS??! He heaped too much on himself and hasn't performed that well since his Wimbledon win! Maybe the FO would have been more imagined and not so jarring to his system! I just think he works too hard, runs too much, & needs to sometimes just say "nice shot" and move on! He unfortunately begins to get sloppy when worn down and it's happening more and more as time goes on! He still has more talent than any other, but it won't do him any good if he's breaking down!

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Carlos Alcaraz ( on twitter),
The ATP Finals is the fastest court on tour by a considerable margin.Found it hard to adjust after Paris-Bercy.
Congratulations to Alexander Zverev for the win, you can still reach the semis despite losing the first match. We will give our all on Wednesday.

 

[Kieran]

What do they call it; GROWING PAINS??! He heaped too much on himself and hasn't performed that well since his Wimbledon win! Maybe the FO would have been more imagined and not so jarring to his system! I just think he works too hard, runs too much, & needs to sometimes just say "nice shot" and move on! He unfortunately begins to get sloppy when worn down and it's happening more and more as time goes on! He still has more talent than any other, but it won't do him any good if he's breaking down!

Pete Sampras also had a lull after winning the USO aged 19. Novak suffered after winning the Australian Open aged 20. Players don’t develop in a straight line. This is what growing pains are, that you might be great one day but then have to suffer a lot of mental and emotional confusion afterwards before you finally understand how to handle what it is you want to do…

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I personally think the Zverev-Sinner and Medvedev-Sinner matches were overrated. To me, the best match of the season was Ben Shelton laying down the comprehensive beatdown of Frances Tiafoe in the US Open quarterfinal. That was the moment when I knew for sure that Shelton's game was for real, and that he is going to be something special. (Remember, Tiafoe went toe-to-toe with Alcaraz at the US Open last year. Tiafoe never had a chance against Shelton, who dominated from start to finish.)

 

[nehmeth]

Daniil always knows how to draw the crazy out of Rublev. Gets the break to go up 4-3 in the first set.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Daniil always knows how to draw the crazy out of Rublev. Gets the break to go up 4-3 in the first set.

Yep this match is following the script we all know Ho Hum

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Meddy is 55-1 when he win the first set in 2023, 64 1st set over the Hair Dude