Nitto ATP Finals 2023, Turin, Italy

[MargaretMcAleer]

Hello friends. It's been a long time between drinks. This exact same thing happened in the WTA a few years ago. Simona whipped Serena in straights in the RR. She needed to win the first set of her 3rd RR match against Ivanovic. Ana couldn't move forward and was just playing for $$. Instead Simona lost the first set in TB and then proceeded to stay out there and eventually lose in three sets. It allowed Serena to go second in the group. They would meet in the final and Serena returned the favor by dropping a bagel on Simo. When you have the opportunity to eliminate the top seed, you need to take it. There is something called losing gracefully.

Hi Keli I remember that scenario a few years back at the WTA, good to see you back at TF

 

[Moxie]

??? That was Nadalfan’s argument… that Sinner was stupid not to tank. The real bonus for you is to see him beat Novak twice. That will feel good for him, but it will pale in the light of his take home pay!

That was actually the argument I was talking against. Sorry if I wasn't clearer. Oh, sure, I'd love it if he beat Novak twice in a week. I'm pretty sure that hasn't been done. Though, I actually don't think it would pale in comparison to the take-home pay. That would be a huge way to end the season. Sinner is a kid, and I think he still basically lives at home. He already has more money than he needs. I think he'd take the win over the money, if it were a choice.

 

[the AntiPusher]

How soon we forget! Let FAA make a case for himself, then. Nick Kyrgios added these to the options, which will please @PhiEaglesfan712: Ben Shelton, Francis Tiafoe and Arthur Fils. He must have forgotten to mention Felix.

I didn't forget but I couldn't make a legitimate case for FAA THIS year .the one thing I recall is how Disappointed Felix was too loose to Pegasus at the Paris Open ..My thoughts were that Felix really wanted to go deeper into that tournament but came up a little short.. The Next Generation really hasn't had someone to just come out and dominate like the great days of the Big 3 plus Andy and Stan. I think we all have been waiting for someone to breakout like Alcaraz and maybe Meddy does occasionally.. Felix has the weapons but not the tournament consistently weekly wins..

 

[Moxie]

I didn't forget but I couldn't make a legitimate case for FAA THIS year .the one thing I recall is how Disappointed Felix was too loose to Pegasus at the Paris Open ..My thoughts were that Felix really wanted to go deeper into that tournament but came up a little short.. The Next Generation really hasn't had someone to just come out and dominate like the great days of the Big 3 plus Andy and Stan. I think we all have been waiting for someone to breakout like Alcaraz and maybe Meddy does occasionally.. Felix has the weapons but not the tournament consistently weekly wins..

You're looking at them. Not just Alcaraz, but Sinner, and, giving him time, Rune. Medvedev is not yet out of time to be relevant, but he's 27, nearly 28. (How time flies!) And same for Felix. I'm not "over" him, but he'd better step up if he wants to swim in the big pool in a serious way.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

That was actually the argument I was talking against. Sorry if I wasn't clearer. Oh, sure, I'd love it if he beat Novak twice in a week. I'm pretty sure that hasn't been done. Though, I actually don't think it would pale in comparison to the take-home pay. That would be a huge way to end the season. Sinner is a kid, and I think he still basically lives at home. He already has more money than he needs. I think he'd take the win over the money, if it were a choice.

Jannik left home at age 13 to train at the Piatti Tennis Centre in Bordighera, he currently lives in Monte Carlo

 

[Moxie]

Hello friends. It's been a long time between drinks. This exact same thing happened in the WTA a few years ago. Simona whipped Serena in straights in the RR. She needed to win the first set of her 3rd RR match against Ivanovic. Ana couldn't move forward and was just playing for $$. Instead Simona lost the first set in TB and then proceeded to stay out there and eventually lose in three sets. It allowed Serena to go second in the group. They would meet in the final and Serena returned the favor by dropping a bagel on Simo. When you have the opportunity to eliminate the top seed, you need to take it. There is something called losing gracefully.

Nice to have you back, K! I don't know...I don't like the calculated tanking. If you don't trust yourself, why play above the tree-line?

 

[Moxie]

Jannik left home at age 13 to train at the Piatti Tennis Centre in Bordighera, he currently lives in Monte Carlo

OK, even if Monte Carlo is expensive, I wouldn't expect him to care more about the money than the title. You know what I'm saying.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

OK, even if Monte Carlo is expensive, I wouldn't expect him to care more about the money than the title. You know what I'm saying.

Agree, winning this title means more than the money he can earn if he wins, remember this is the first time he has appeared, even if he dosent win this has to be a huge confidence booster going into 2024.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Jannik has also been working with Dr Ricardo Cecarelli, who is known for his work with Formula One racers, who he said has helped him in his mentality
Jannik said it is very different from having a sports psychologist, what we do is different , we use a computer to solve exercises and we calculate the performance of my brain when it comes to finding solutions to the problems I encounter in these exercises. Repetition makes me automate the process amd my brain more efficient and works better under pressure and in extreme situations.It helps Jannik a lot because it makes him understand why things happen and he can analyze them in detail. Jannik feels he has improved significantly in this mental aspect. It is called Formula Medicine which is designed to improve the mentality of people who have to meet high demands in their profession, sport etc,

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

You know, Shelton had one good tournament and one good result, but you act like beating Tiafoe is a big deal. It isn’t. I’m wondering based on what do you compare Ben with Alcaraz and Rune…

It's not that he beat Tiafoe, it's the way he did it. Keep in mind, Tiafoe went toe-to-toe with Alcaraz the year before. Tiafoe never had a chance against Shelton.

In all seriousness, to answer your question, Shelton plays as if no moment is too big for him. You can't say that about the likes of Zverev, Tsitsipas, or even Medvedev.

The difference between Tiafoe and Shelton is that Tiafoe is older and I was hoping that he would be great. Shelton just turned 21, and I am confident that he is going to turn into a great player.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Both Andy Roddick and Jim Courier are tipping Medvedev to win tomorrow
Our Aussie Nick believes Alcaraz will get the win
Nick also believes Rublev will win in straight sets lol! I have to see that to believe it against Zverev

 

[kskate2]

Nice to have you back, K! I don't know...I don't like the calculated tanking. If you don't trust yourself, why play above the tree-line?

It's not about trusting yourself. I'm looking a bit beyond the $$. He did great to beat Novak and get that monkey off his back. But apparently Djoke isn't going anywhere soon. He will have other opportunities to play him next year. Djoke is a ruthless escape artist. You don't think he will do everything in his power to make sure he wins the SF so he can stand in the final? What happens to Jannik's confidence if they meet in the final and he gets smoked?

 

[El Dude]

How soon we forget! Let FAA make a case for himself, then. Nick Kyrgios added these to the options, which will please @PhiEaglesfan712: Ben Shelton, Francis Tiafoe and Arthur Fils. He must have forgotten to mention Felix.

I still think FAA will jump a couple steps forward - go back to where he was in 2022 and then take another step forward from there, and at least more firmly join the Rublev/Ruud/Hurkacz coterie, and maybe half a step up to Zverev/Tsitsipas in the "lesser elite" category.

Tiafoe is weird, because he has a few people who believe he's a potential elite. I see him as a potential...well, "tier 2.5" type ala Gasquet/Monfils...not quite a true 2nd tier guy, but will be around the top 10-20 range, maybe dip into the top 10 a bit. I mean the guy is almost 26 and has just lightly fondled the top 10. He's had a few matches here and there where he looked really good, but I just don't see him getting significantly better. Could be wrong, though. Still, he's the type of player who, in a "weak era" (e.g. late 90s, early 00s) might have won a Masters. Look at the list of Masters winners back then...lots of guys who would have maxed out at ATP 500s today, if that.

Shelton looks good, but it is too soon to say where he'll end up. He could be a future lesser elite or Jerzy Janowicz. And I find him kind of annoying, so he's a guy I'll probably root against. Seems a lock for the top 10, though, and I think should be at least in the Rublev/Hurkacz group, maybe in the Zverev/Tsitsipas category. Fils is a guy that I hope could be really good, like maybe even in the Alcaraz/Rune/Sinner range. But I'm probably getting ahead of myself.

Anyhow, I do feel that the talent level is rising overall, at least among players debuting over the last 15 years or so. Next Genners are better than Lost Gen, and Millenials are better than Next Gen. So tennis is going in a good direction. While Next Gen didn't give us any true ATGs, there are several guys who are as good or better than any of Lost Gen -- Thiem (the first Next Genner), Medvedev (the best Next Genner), Zverev, Tsitsipas, Rublev, Hurkacz, maybe one or two others. And Millenials have a handful of guys who could be even better than most of those guys - Alcaraz is already there, Rune and Sinner are getting there, FAA remains a darkhorse, plus Shelton, Fils, etc.

As for Rune, I still hold to the view I expressed late last year...I see an explosive player who will have spells in which he's virtually unbeatable, and even peaking a bit higher than Alcaraz for spells, but being far less consistent. Sinner will be right there with them, although maybe a sliver behind.

 

[MikeOne]

Still picking Sinner although he probably should’ve lost to Rune to knock out djoker.

it feels sinner wants this more and has been raising his level past few months. Carlos and novak have done a lot this year. Sinner is fresher and hungrier. I also think if he wins, will be an interesting end to year. Novak and carlos dominated and sinner ending year winning this tournament, going 5-0 would be interesting for 2024.

Btw, didn’t watch sinner vs novak match but stats look impressive. Novak had a winner/ufe count of 46/14 and sinner 37/11. Novak outaced him 20-15 and had better serving and returning win % on 1st and 2nd serves. The match ended 109 points a piece.

In almost every stat, novak was slightly better but lost. This to me is more impressive as it means sinner beat novak playing better than he did BUT sinner won the key points. This is even more important for sinner as it means he is holding his own when it counts and beating an in form novak. Had novak played poorly and lost, would’ve been just novak having a bad day and not much of an eventful win as wouldn’t prove sinner has the level to beat novak at his best and in key points. It was impressive win.

 

[tented]

 

[Moxie]

Still picking Sinner although he probably should’ve lost to Rune to knock out djoker.

It seems we could all have a long debate on whether you should just fight to win, and back yourself to keep winning, rather than tank to try to make it easier on yourself.

Btw, didn’t watch sinner vs novak match but stats look impressive. Novak had a winner/ufe count of 46/14 and sinner 37/11. Novak outaced him 20-15 and had better serving and returning win % on 1st and 2nd serves. The match ended 109 points a piece.

In almost every stat, novak was slightly better but lost. This to me is more impressive as it means sinner beat novak playing better than he did BUT sinner won the key points. This is even more important for sinner as it means he is holding his own when it counts and beating an in form novak. Had novak played poorly and lost, would’ve been just novak having a bad day and not much of an eventful win as wouldn’t prove sinner has the level to beat novak at his best and in key points. It was impressive win.

This reminds me of some of @El Dude's analysis of stats v. actually dealing with the impact of it it real time. You're not wrong in your analysis of the stats. But it still misses something of the grit and reality of the match. The younger player discomfiting the veteran, and rising to his full potential. I hope you'll get a chance to watch it on the replay.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

If he wins the tournament, Jannik will receive 2,600,000 over and above what he would have won if he tanked to Rune. That’s too much money to not try.

He won’t win now because Djokovic will beat him in the final.

 

[Fiero425]

Still picking Sinner although he probably should’ve lost to Rune to knock out Djoker.

it feels sinner wants this more and has been raising his level past few months. Carlos and novak have done a lot this year. Sinner is fresher and hungrier. I also think if he wins, will be an interesting end to year. Novak and carlos dominated and sinner ending year winning this tournament, going 5-0 would be interesting for 2024.

Btw, didn’t watch Sinner vs Novak match, but stats look impressive. Novak had a winner/ufe count of 46/14 and Sinner 37/11. Novak out-aced him 20-15 and had better serving and returning win % on 1st and 2nd serves. The match ended 109 points a piece.

In almost every stat, novak was slightly better but lost. This to me is more impressive as it means sinner beat Novak playing better than he did BUT Sinner won the key points. This is even more important for sinner as it means he is holding his own when it counts and beating an in form novak. Had novak played poorly and lost, would’ve been just Novak having a bad day and not much of an eventful win as wouldn’t prove sinner has the level to beat Novak at his best and in key points. It was impressive win.

This will be reminscent of 2015 YEC! Federer beat Novak in the RR! It went the other way in the final like all the other tourneys of that record season! I thought this draw looked tough! I wasn't sure how much emotion Novak could muster after securing his 8th YE #1!

 

[Kieran]

It's not that he beat Tiafoe, it's the way he did it. Keep in mind, Tiafoe went toe-to-toe with Alcaraz the year before. Tiafoe never had a chance against Shelton.

In all seriousness, to answer your question, Shelton plays as if no moment is too big for him. You can't say that about the likes of Zverev, Tsitsipas, or even Medvedev.

The difference between Tiafoe and Shelton is that Tiafoe is older and I was hoping that he would be great. Shelton just turned 21, and I am confident that he is going to turn into a great player.

Yeah but beating Tiafoe is no biggie. It’s routine on the tour. He’s no default setting at the top level. He’s had one good tournament at that level, otherwise been anonymous. We can’t predict greatness from a victory against Tiafoe. Not even from a win against Ruud, and he’s a few levels above Francis.

I actually like Ben but we’ve seen very little to make bold predictions. For instance, I also like the way he plays without fear, but that’s what youngsters tend to do. The pressure is all on the opponent, but how will he play when he suddenly feels he has something to lose? Will he tighten up? We don’t know. But that’s when we get to really know them.

I genuinely hope Ben continues in this vein but I think the evidence is treadbare at the moment to say he’ll succeed, and there’s a few signs that say he won’t, but it’s too early to put too much weight on them, either…

 

[Kieran]

I doubt very much that Jannik is thinking of the money. If he is, then he’s a low level thinker and he’ll never be a great player. The money automatically follows these chaps around. He won because winning is a habit and he wants to keep the momentum going. If he’d chucked in a loss against Rune it would have affected him going forward. 3 loses without reply against Holger and a potential match in the final?

He most likely will lose against Djoker if they meet again but he’ll have a much better chance with the momentum behind him..