Nadalites – Rafa Nadal Talk

[El Dude]

I think you’re right, brother. He’s going to play on clay and should be fit by then. Looking at them stats, he’s been extraordinary. Two seasons of the last 3 he’s only won RG? That’s remarkable given that he dispatched Novak both times. His ability to turn it on in Paris is the great heroic stand in modern tennis. He gets very jealous there, so there’s always hope.

I remember when Pete was falling out of love with the game, the blurb was that he could turn up at Wimbledon every year until he’s forty and still have a chance. Especially with his undeniable serve. I was sceptical then, and I’m sceptical now, even though Rafa is almost always able to find a way. The end in tennis - like for any King - can be both swift and bloody…

It is so hard to say with Rafa, and while I think there are similarities, the situation is rather different than Pete, who had just turned 31 when he won that last US Open - and his previous Slam title had been more than two years before, just shy of his 29th birthday. Rafa is both much older than Pete was in 2002, and also a lot closer to winning Slams - he won two just last year. On the other hand, the rest of his performance is eroding around his RG dominance....a weird stat to realize is that he's won just a single Masters in the last three seasons (in 2021).

One similarity, though, is that they're both Slam-focused at their respective points in their careers, and both with unsurpassed champion's mentalities. So as with Pete, I think a lot depends upon Rafa's performance at Slams: especially RG, but also the USO and AO (and less so, Wimbledon).

I think 2002 is somewhat comparable because I believe we're at the point when Rafa's next Slam win--if he does win another Slam--will possibly be his last. He isn't quite of the mentality that Pete was, in that he's had more recent success than Pete did at that point. Rafa and Novak have somehow, despite slipping from their earlier best levels, managed to maintain a monopoly at Slams. Since Roger's last at the 2018 AO, they've won 16 out of 19 Grand Slams between the two of them! Meaning, despite the overall erosion in Rafa's game--e.g. that lone Masters in 2020-22--he's still doing well at Slams, or at least has relatively recently. Meaning, he's losing Knights, Bishops and Rooks, but still holding onto his Queen.

But where I'm going is this: Pete's 2002 US Open victory was somewhat improbable. He was clearly a shadow of himself, and the fact that he won it was probably both a testament to his fighting spirit and the fact that the field was a bit weak, with no truly dominant player holding court. To some extent the same is true today for Rafa. Novak is still playing very well, but not impossibly so, and the future of tennis is rising up and starting to make their mark, but they haven't taken over yet. But as with Pete in 2002, the writing is on the wall, and as it gets harder and harder to win "Roland Garros Plus" every year, I'm not sure how long Rafa will want to hold out, and whether he's thinking "one more time and I'll go out on top" or "if I don't win this year, I'm thinking it might be time," or even "I'll keep playing until it is absolutely clear I can't win RG anymore." If the last, it might be several years yet.

The bottom line for me is that two things are true: I wouldn't be surprised to see him retire this year, regardless of the outcome on RG (whether on top or losing the crown), but I also wouldn't be surprised to see him go on until it is clear that he can't win RG anymore. For him, given his history, that might require not just one or even two, but three years without winning the title. Meaning, there's a scenario where this is his last year, but also one in which he fights on for another few years. I just have no idea.

All of the above might be decided by a factor I haven't mentioned: health. As players get older, it gets harder and harder to get back to fighting form. I remember hearing from Roger several times in 2020-22, as he talked about coming back, then said he was going to sit things out for awhile because he wasn't confident that he could play his best. For Rafa, it might not be his next Slam title we need to consider, but his next injury. He missed a lot of tennis recently, and might be thinking more in terms of how long he can stay healthy this time...and if and when he gets hurt, who knows if he'll want to go through the recovery process yet again. He ain't no spring chicken!

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Quite frankly Rafa cant afford another injury this year, he will turn 37 when RG comes around, I feel even if he wins or loses RG this year, I wont be surprised if he hangs up his racket for good at the end of the year. I thought he was done at age 30 BTW, so this has been a added bonus for me in many ways.

 

[Kieran]

Quite frankly Rafa cant afford another injury this year, he will turn 37 when RG comes around, I feel even if he wins RG this year, I wont be surprised if he hangs up his racket for good at the end of the year. I thought he was done at age 30 BTW, so this has been a added bonus for me in many ways.

Yeah it wouldn’t surprise me either. I think if he’d won the USO last year he’d have called it a career . Novak said in a recent interview that he feels like him and Rafa are largely only playing now because the other is, and so I think both will try push hard this year to get ahead. But Rafa can’t afford injuries, though he seems prone to them more so in the last couple years…

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Yeah it wouldn’t surprise me either. I think if he’d won the USO last year he’d have called it a career . Novak said in a recent interview that he feels like him and Rafa are largely only playing now because the other is, and so I think both will try push hard this year to get ahead. But Rafa can’t afford injuries, though he seems prone to them more so in the last couple years…

I wish he hadnt played USO last year, his injury wasnt healed, though I take your point, why does he keep playing with injuries over the years, agree he has been prone to more injuries over the last couple of years, maybe his body is telling him something?

 

[Kieran]

It is so hard to say with Rafa, and while I think there are similarities, the situation is rather different than Pete, who had just turned 31 when he won that last US Open - and his previous Slam title had been more than two years before, just shy of his 29th birthday. Rafa is both much older than Pete was in 2002, and also a lot closer to winning Slams - he won two just last year. On the other hand, the rest of his performance is eroding around his RG dominance....a weird stat to realize is that he's won just a single Masters in the last three seasons (in 2021).

One similarity, though, is that they're both Slam-focused at their respective points in their careers, and both with unsurpassed champion's mentalities. So as with Pete, I think a lot depends upon Rafa's performance at Slams: especially RG, but also the USO and AO (and less so, Wimbledon).

I think 2002 is somewhat comparable because I believe we're at the point when Rafa's next Slam win--if he does win another Slam--will possibly be his last. He isn't quite of the mentality that Pete was, in that he's had more recent success than Pete did at that point. Rafa and Novak have somehow, despite slipping from their earlier best levels, managed to maintain a monopoly at Slams. Since Roger's last at the 2018 AO, they've won 16 out of 19 Grand Slams between the two of them! Meaning, despite the overall erosion in Rafa's game--e.g. that lone Masters in 2020-22--he's still doing well at Slams, or at least has relatively recently. Meaning, he's losing Knights, Bishops and Rooks, but still holding onto his Queen.

But where I'm going is this: Pete's 2002 US Open victory was somewhat improbable. He was clearly a shadow of himself, and the fact that he won it was probably both a testament to his fighting spirit and the fact that the field was a bit weak, with no truly dominant player holding court. To some extent the same is true today for Rafa. Novak is still playing very well, but not impossibly so, and the future of tennis is rising up and starting to make their mark, but they haven't taken over yet. But as with Pete in 2002, the writing is on the wall, and as it gets harder and harder to win "Roland Garros Plus" every year, I'm not sure how long Rafa will want to hold out, and whether he's thinking "one more time and I'll go out on top" or "if I don't win this year, I'm thinking it might be time," or even "I'll keep playing until it is absolutely clear I can't win RG anymore." If the last, it might be several years yet.

The bottom line for me is that two things are true: I wouldn't be surprised to see him retire this year, regardless of the outcome on RG (whether on top or losing the crown), but I also wouldn't be surprised to see him go on until it is clear that he can't win RG anymore. For him, given his history, that might require not just one or even two, but three years without winning the title. Meaning, there's a scenario where this is his last year, but also one in which he fights on for another few years. I just have no idea.

All of the above might be decided by a factor I haven't mentioned: health. As players get older, it gets harder and harder to get back to fighting form. I remember hearing from Roger several times in 2020-22, as he talked about coming back, then said he was going to sit things out for awhile because he wasn't confident that he could play his best. For Rafa, it might not be his next Slam title we need to consider, but his next injury. He missed a lot of tennis recently, and might be thinking more in terms of how long he can stay healthy this time...and if and when he gets hurt, who knows if he'll want to go through the recovery process yet again. He ain't no spring chicken!

Pete wasn’t too far off in the 2002 Australian Open. He had a monstrous brawl with safin in the fourth round, one of the most vindictive matches I’ve seen. He wasn’t far off nudging that into a fifth, where the momentum might have carried him through. The rest of the draw was open for him, provided he didn’t bring any leggy ladies to the final to prettify his players box.

He rehired Paul Annacone after Wimbledon and Annacone famously told him, “remember who you are - you’re Pete Sampras, and the other guys aren’t.” They’re juicy words, bound to stir the heart of a great competitor like Pete. But yeah, he was looking for one last hurrah, then he was out of there.

I know this came up in another topic about Pete and I forgot to reply, but my instinct tells me that he’d have played for longer and been just as competitive if he’d had a rival who looked able to eclipse him. Pete brooked no argument with his historic rivals. The Big 3 are leaving everything out there because they have to, to stay ahead of or beside their rivals. Pete wanted to set the record, and his closest rival at the time - Agassi - was far behind on 7. I doubt he expected the Big 3 would come along. In the professional era up until Pete retired, as you know, only him and Borg achieved double digits, and who’d have foreseen what happened after 2002?

 

[El Dude]

Pete wasn’t too far off in the 2002 Australian Open. He had a monstrous brawl with safin in the fourth round, one of the most vindictive matches I’ve seen. He wasn’t far off nudging that into a fifth, where the momentum might have carried him through. The rest of the draw was open for him, provided he didn’t bring any leggy ladies to the final to prettify his players box.

He rehired Paul Annacone after Wimbledon and Annacone famously told him, “remember who you are - you’re Pete Sampras, and the other guys aren’t.” They’re juicy words, bound to stir the heart of a great competitor like Pete. But yeah, he was looking for one last hurrah, then he was out of there.

I know this came up in another topic about Pete and I forgot to reply, but my instinct tells me that he’d have played for longer and been just as competitive if he’d had a rival who looked able to eclipse him. Pete brooked no argument with his historic rivals. The Big 3 are leaving everything out there because they have to, to stay ahead of or beside their rivals. Pete wanted to set the record, and his closest rival at the time - Agassi - was far behind on 7. I doubt he expected the Big 3 would come along. In the professional era up until Pete retired, as you know, only him and Borg achieved double digits, and who’d have foreseen what happened after 2002?

I hear that about Pete, but I wonder about Rafa. I think Novak is more driven to end with the records, but for some reason I don't think Rafa cares as much, that it is less a numerical thing and more a matter of winning the match, the tournament, almost more of a creed than something for the record books. Meaning, I could see Novak scanning the record books more than I can see Rafa doing the same! But that's 100% speculation.

Now if Rafa does really want to finish with the most Slams, he must realize that the odds are against him. I mean, it isn't that I'm absolutely certain that Novak wins the race, but I'd estimate the chances as being rather likely, maybe something around 80%. Not that this would stymie Rafa from getting out there; he's a bit like Han Solo navigating the asteroid belt: "Never tell me the odds!"

On the other hand, we all know that Rafa has weird quirks. Maybe he has a number in mind, whether Roland Garros titles or overall Slams. Maybe he wants a nice round 15 RGs, or maybe he has his mind set on 25 Slams. Or maybe, and more likely, he just wants to fight as hard as he can, for as long as he can, and go down swinging.

 

[Kieran]

I hear that about Pete, but I wonder about Rafa. I think Novak is more driven to end with the records, but for some reason I don't think Rafa cares as much, that it is less a numerical thing and more a matter of winning the match, the tournament, almost more of a creed than something for the record books. Meaning, I could see Novak scanning the record books more than I can see Rafa doing the same! But that's 100% speculation.

Now if Rafa does really want to finish with the most Slams, he must realize that the odds are against him. I mean, it isn't that I'm absolutely certain that Novak wins the race, but I'd estimate the chances as being rather likely, maybe something around 80%. Not that this would stymie Rafa from getting out there; he's a bit like Han Solo navigating the asteroid belt: "Never tell me the odds!"

On the other hand, we all know that Rafa has weird quirks. Maybe he has a number in mind, whether Roland Garros titles or overall Slams. Maybe he wants a nice round 15 RGs, or maybe he has his mind set on 25 Slams. Or maybe, and more likely, he just wants to fight as hard as he can, for as long as he can, and go down swinging.

Yeah he’s definitely harder to read in that respect, than Novak. As I said elsewhere, Novak would throttle his granny to get the W. There’s not much I’d put beyond him, including cheating, at this stage. Rafa tends to say the right things regarding the slam race but I think he’d like to end his career with the record, which could happen after Paris.

But I don’t think he’s as obsessed with it as Novak is. When he says he’s happy with what he’s got, given that people said in his early 20’s that he’d be gone by the age of thirty, I think he appreciates that he’s made the most of everything, given the injuries he’s had…

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Quite frankly Rafa cant afford another injury this year, he will turn 37 when RG comes around, I feel even if he wins or loses RG this year, I wont be surprised if he hangs up his racket for good at the end of the year. I thought he was done at age 30 BTW, so this has been a added bonus for me in many ways.

With the Olympics on the Paris Clay next year, I don't see Rafa hanging it up at the end of the year. Rafa will be playing tennis in 2024, even if on a part time schedule (I can see Rafa skipping the 2024 AO and going straight to the clay season/French Open). I think he wants that 2nd gold in singles to complete the double career golden slam, and further separate himself from his rivals. I think Rafa is going to retire after the Olympics, gold medal or not.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Yeah he’s definitely harder to read in that respect, than Novak. As I said elsewhere, Novak would throttle his granny to get the W. There’s not much I’d put beyond him, including cheating, at this stage. Rafa tends to say the right things regarding the slam race but I think he’d like to end his career with the record, which could happen after Paris.

But I don’t think he’s as obsessed with it as Novak is. When he says he’s happy with what he’s got, given that people said in his early 20’s that he’d be gone by the age of thirty, I think he appreciates that he’s made the most of everything, given the injuries he’s had…

I agree with your thoughts Rafa is harder to read, than Novak, on court you would not know it, he is fierce and competitive, off court he is a different person all together, he still cant believe the success he has had.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

With the Olympics on the Paris Clay next year, I don't see Rafa hanging it up at the end of the year. Rafa will be playing tennis in 2024, even if on a part time schedule (I can see Rafa skipping the 2024 AO and going straight to the clay season/French Open). I think he wants that 2nd gold in singles to complete the double career golden slam, and further separate himself from his rivals. I think Rafa is going to retire after the Olympics, gold medal or not.

Not if he gets injured again he wont

 

[Kieran]

With the Olympics on the Paris Clay next year, I don't see Rafa hanging it up at the end of the year. Rafa will be playing tennis in 2024, even if on a part time schedule (I can see Rafa skipping the 2024 AO and going straight to the clay season/French Open). I think he wants that 2nd gold in singles to complete the double career golden slam, and further separate himself from his rivals. I think Rafa is going to retire after the Olympics, gold medal or not.

Nothing would surprise me. Certainly, I expect Novak to be there, but it’s a long time from now for Rafa. He’d maybe tempted though, if he finishes this year with some form…

 

[the AntiPusher]

Not if he gets injured again he wont

I read a few years ago an article where Jelena Djokovic was asked about Novak's fitness and training regimen. Jelena said "Nole, is constantly doing yoga and Stretching even when he is just lounging around the house. I really wonder how much Rafa's does away from training which I think has been Nole's secret "sauce" to his extraordinary flexibility and health.. Maybe Rafa can add Jelena to his physio team. Everyone has a PRICE.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I read a few years ago an article where Jelena Djokovic was asked about Novak's fitness and training regimen. Jelena said "Nole, is constantly doing yoga and Stretching even when he is just lounging around the house. I really wonder how much Rafa's does away from training which I think has been Nole's secret "sauce" to his extraordinary flexibility and health.. Maybe Rafa can add Jelena to his physio team. Everyone has a PRICE.

Please I cant see Jelena Djokovic being added to Rafa's team, whatever price lol!
I do yoga and yes it does have benefits especially for your flexability
Rafa can always get Yoga and stretching video's

 

[TheSicilian]

I read a few years ago an article where Jelena Djokovic was asked about Novak's fitness and training regimen. Jelena said "Nole, is constantly doing yoga and Stretching even when he is just lounging around the house. I really wonder how much Rafa's does away from training which I think has been Nole's secret "sauce" to his extraordinary flexibility and health.. Maybe Rafa can add Jelena to his physio team. Everyone has a PRICE.

I was watching a video on youtube recently, some guy was going to the airport asking millionaires if he could ride with them in their private jet, one actually agreed They did an interview while flying and the millionaire mentioned the importance of stretching to him, he pays experts in the fitness world $2500 to work with him daily, so it must really help him. Maybe Rafa should give it a go!

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

I was watching a video on youtube recently, some guy was going to the airport asking millionaires if he could ride with them in their private jet, one actually agreed They did an interview while flying and the millionaire mentioned the importance of stretching to him, he pays experts in the fitness world $2500 to work with him daily, so it must really help him. Maybe Rafa should give it a go!

Hey I would do that for half the price

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Hey I would do that for half the price

I agree with your thoughts stretching and yoga is great for your all round flexibility especially as you get older, though even better if you start it earlier, it has long term health benefits

 

[TheSicilian]

I agree with your thoughts stretching and yoga is great for your all round flexibility especially as you get older, though even better if you start it earlier, it has long term health benefits

I did try yoga/stretching a long time ago, I didn't really get any improvement tbh, but I have seen many athletes say it really helped them and some say it extended their careers! I think it's something that has probably evolved a lot over the years and have seen yoga teachers include things like anti inflammatory diet to do as well as the yoga.

 

[Jelenafan]

Rafa hasn’t been himself since he withdrew from Wimbledon. There’s a clearheaded scenario here that says he’s reading the last few paragraphs of the book. I don’t think he’s going to be hugely competitive this year at all. That seems negative, I know, but he’s 37 in a while and has played exactly 13 matches since the 6th July of last year - losing 8 of them…

For goodness wannabe El Dude:

 

[Kieran]

For goodness wannabe El Dude:

View attachment 7793

In fairness, @El Dude goes the full stretch to get his stats, I only counted up 13 matches and got tired…

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Rafa Nadal via Twitter, answering question when will he be back

"I had a major rupture in Australia.It's taking time. The evolution is slower than we'd like. I will be back when I am well. The idea is to peak at Roland Garos".