Doing my best to channel Rafanoy:
Rafa has 1100 points to defend in Feb/March. Worst case scenario and say he’s not back by Miami, even if those points slide off entirely Rafa would be outside the #10 by only 280 points.
Keep in mind, in this same time frame, other than Holger Rune most of the other guys in the 6- 12 have considerable points to defend: By my calculation Rublev is defending 1300 points, Taylor Fritz has 1190 points (including IW title) , Cameron Norrie 910, Felix 670, Hurtcatz 675, etc.
Plus, Rafa has only 270 points to defend in the spring claycourt tournaments leading up to Roland Garos. Can make up considerable ground this spring with a good clay showing so optimistically even dropping outside the top 10 would not be long lived.