I'm sure there's a formula, but Murray admits that his elbow is not all there yet. He's had better clay results in the last couple of years, admittedly, but, given that Andy and Novak are coming off of injury lay-offs, and Rafa is having the 2nd best year after the miraculously resurrected Federer, how does Rafa come in third, at a tournament he's won 9 times? (Not to mention that Murray never has won it.) Curious as to the rubric that gets you to those numbers, friend.
Yes, there is a formula, it is explained in another thread (to avoid cross posting):
https://discuss.tennis/tennisforum/...nis-prediction-challenge-atp.1281/#post-50769
Unfortunately, formula does not take into account Murray's bad elbow
, nor Djokovic's meditation needs
, at least not for now
(just kidding, this is hard to model)
Formula also does not take into account past tournament results (like Nadal's in Monte-Carlo), this is a good idea, looking forward to implement it for the next tournaments.
Btw, main reason why Rafa comes here third, is because current formula is heavily influenced with Elo ratings (global and by surface), which indicate current form in recent broader period (6 months to 1 year) and in this category Murray (global Elo) and Djokovic (Clay Elo) are better then Nadal.
Formula still does not reflect good enough recent form is the very short period (up to 3 months), although it is discutable how recent form reflects in match outcome when there is a switch in surface, like moving from hard to clay. I would say it has negligible impact, but of course, training neural network on historical data can answer this question the best.
