Is Federer safe for London (WTF)?

[GameSetAndMath]

With both Lleyton and Gasquet losing today, the outlook for Fed improves.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

andy murray withdrew from the WTF today, so its even more likely woger will qualify.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Yep, that certainly increases Fed's chances.

 

[isabelle]

andy murray withdrew from the WTF today, so its even more likely woger will qualify.

Nasty Gael didn't help Olderer but I guess he'll ask a WC for Stckholm or Wien to take some points ?
It could be useful if he still wants to go to Big Ben

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Federer has already fallen to #8 in the ATP race today after his loss to Monfils.

Vienna announced more than a month ago that they will keep a wild card open
until the last minute just in case Fed wants it. However, I don't think Fed will take
up on that (as if he does, it would mean he will be playing for five weeks in a
row, assuming he qualifies for WTF).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Now Del Potro has officially qualified (and few days ago Murray officially withdrew).
So, four are in viz., Nadal, Djokovic, Ferrer and Del Potro.

Berdych, while not officially qualified, is almost sure to make it as he is way
ahead of other contenders.

For the remaining three spots, realistically speaking there are five contenders.
I am giving below there ATP live race points as of today.


Stanislas Wawrinka SUI 3150

Roger Federer SUI 3145

Jo Wilfried Tsonga FRA 3010

Richard Gasquet FRA 2960

Milos Raonic CAN 2770

I hope the standings remain the same way and Gasquet and Raonic do not make
it. This is not prediction. This is my wish. Hoefully my wish will come true.

After Raonic, there is a huge drop in the points (I think the next in line is Haas) and
so they do not have realistic chances (unless a miracle like they winning
a major event outright happens) given that there are only three weeks left.
But, I don't mind if Haas makes it in lieu of anyone else except Fed.

Remains to be seen whether Fed takes wild card in Vienna.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

I can see Raonic going mental and winning paris masters..esp if its fastish court.

some of the others might pull out or maybe not try 100%.

 

[Front242]

Where was the news about the possibility of Soderling returning for the Paris masters? Unable to find any info on it.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

probably because it was a load of wishful thinking fanboy/girl nonsense.

he isn't even training properly is he ???????.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

There are three ATP 250 tournaments next week. Only four contenders are in action.
Milos in Stockholm, Gasquet in Moscow and Tsonga & Haas in Vienna. Of these four
only Tsonga has the ability to surpass Federer by the end of next week. The others
cannot surpass Fed even if they win the tournament they are playing in outright.

Vienna has already awarded all three wild cards (which means Fed has rejected
their wild card offer).

Milos is actually playing in Stockhom by virtue of WC, which means he is serious
about qualifying.

Wawrinka was supposed to play in Moscow, but withdrew (which probably means
he is confident of qualifying without playing in minor events at this time).

 

[tented]

Thanks for your posts, GSM. It's very helpful to have the latest tournament info. and WTF race numbers.

 

[herios]

There are three ATP 250 tournaments next week. Only four contenders are in action.
Milos in Stockholm, Gasquet in Moscow and Tsonga & Haas in Vienna. Of these four
only Tsonga has the ability to surpass Federer by the end of next week. The others
cannot surpass Fed even if they win the tournament they are playing in outright.

Vienna has already awarded all three wild cards (which means Fed has rejected
their wild card offer).

Milos is actually playing in Stockhom by virtue of WC, which means he is serious
about qualifying.

Wawrinka was supposed to play in Moscow, but withdrew (which probably means
he is confident of qualifying without playing in minor events at this time).

Thanks for posting this, you beat me. What this means, Roger's main competitors are in play, and he is far from being safe. It will come down to the wires in the last 2 weeks of competition, with Basel hving a huge impact.

 

[Kieran]

Yeah, I'm surprised Roger is in this position but he's not getting results, and he's even being beaten by flakey guys like Monfils, who don't need much excuse to bail out when the room gets warm. Looking at it, Roger is buffeted by Andy's absence, but he could do himself a favour by defending his points in Basle and gaining a few in Paris...

 

[herios]

Yeah, I'm surprised Roger is in this position but he's not getting results, and he's even being beaten by flakey guys like Monfils, who don't need much excuse to bail out when the room gets warm. Looking at it, Roger is buffeted by Andy's absence, but he could do himself a favour by defending his points in Basle and gaining a few in Paris...

Retaining his points in Basel will be a very complicated task (for this version of Roger we have seen lately).
Look at this field: Nadal, DelPotro, Berdych, Federer. Wawrinka, Gasquet, Raonic. Packed field like a master.

 

[Kieran]

Yeah, I'm surprised Roger is in this position but he's not getting results, and he's even being beaten by flakey guys like Monfils, who don't need much excuse to bail out when the room gets warm. Looking at it, Roger is buffeted by Andy's absence, but he could do himself a favour by defending his points in Basle and gaining a few in Paris...

Retaining his points in Basel will be a very complicated task (for this version of Roger we have seen lately).
Look at this field: Nadal, DelPotro, Berdych, Federer. Wawrinka, Gasquet, Raonic. Packed field like a master.

Yeah, it's a bit like Beijing, which was a great tournament. And the Swiss #1 will be looking to win his hometown event too. Never thought i'd see the day when Roger would be second favourite behind even Stan, but it's happened. Personally, I think Roger will click before the year's end and take a big scalp. Another difficulty he has, however, is that Basle, Paris and London are played consecutively, so if he goes deep in the first two, he may not have much left for the third...

 

[Front242]

Yeah, I'm surprised Roger is in this position but he's not getting results, and he's even being beaten by flakey guys like Monfils, who don't need much excuse to bail out when the room gets warm. Looking at it, Roger is buffeted by Andy's absence, but he could do himself a favour by defending his points in Basle and gaining a few in Paris...

Retaining his points in Basel will be a very complicated task (for this version of Roger we have seen lately).
Look at this field: Nadal, DelPotro, Berdych, Federer. Wawrinka, Gasquet, Raonic. Packed field like a master.

Depending on the remaining players to qualify it's pretty much the whole pack of contenders for the WTF at Basel. Very strong field. I'd say Fed may need a wild card somewhere to gain points no matter how few. Reaching the final at Basel to defend his points is a tough ask right now given his form.

 

[herios]

Yeah, I'm surprised Roger is in this position but he's not getting results, and he's even being beaten by flakey guys like Monfils, who don't need much excuse to bail out when the room gets warm. Looking at it, Roger is buffeted by Andy's absence, but he could do himself a favour by defending his points in Basle and gaining a few in Paris...

Retaining his points in Basel will be a very complicated task (for this version of Roger we have seen lately).
Look at this field: Nadal, DelPotro, Berdych, Federer. Wawrinka, Gasquet, Raonic. Packed field like a master.

Depending on the remaining players to qualify it's pretty much the whole pack of contenders for the WTF at Basel. Very strong field. I'd say Fed may need a wild card somewhere to gain points no matter how few. Reaching the final at Basel to defend his points is a tough ask right now given his form.

The window has been closed on WC for next week, Roger didn't elect to take on ny of them so it will be only Basel and Paris for him.

 

[19USC66]

I would not bet money on Roger making the WTF. Wawrinka passed him. Thus, Fed is now at position number 8. It is going to be real close. He needs to shape up at Basel and Paris. Winning some matches would help his cause, but the way Rog is playing. UGH. He looks awful. He was lucky he beat Seppi.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

There are three ATP 250 tournaments next week. Only four contenders are in action.
Milos in Stockholm, Gasquet in Moscow and Tsonga & Haas in Vienna. Of these four
only Tsonga has the ability to surpass Federer by the end of next week. The others
cannot surpass Fed even if they win the tournament they are playing in outright.

Vienna has already awarded all three wild cards (which means Fed has rejected
their wild card offer).

Milos is actually playing in Stockhom by virtue of WC, which means he is serious
about qualifying.

Wawrinka was supposed to play in Moscow, but withdrew (which probably means
he is confident of qualifying without playing in minor events at this time).

all his rivals around him gaining points which might be the difference in a couple of weeks..

Federer is at risk of taking a slow gloom drenched walk along Heartache Avenue. :nono

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Tsonga has now overtaken Gasquet.

I like the current crop of top-8 players. Hope they retain their positions
or only swap among themselves.

If so, Fed, Waw, Tsonga and Berdych should make it.

I think it has a high chance of happening.

With loss today, Milos is in deeper trouble. Only person who has
a practical (not mathematical) chance of uprooting one of the 4
above from WTF is Gasquet.