How Worried Are We For Novak?

[roberto]

I knew you would say that, and it's an old saw, but Novak has been catching up to Rafa in "tennis years" over the past few, and he also plays a heavy attritional style. IF he gets past this elbow issue - on his racquet arm - and I'm not sure about the right hand surgery. He's also had wrist and shoulder issues over the last 3 years, wrist recurring (by observation) and shoulder chronic, to hear his fans tell it. And he's got a new serve to deal with. Sure, he could be a threat for years to come...look at Roger and Rafa. But I think he's past the point of saying he's that much younger than Rafa, chronologically or in tennis years.

I think it's an overstatement to claim that Rafa's and Novak's chronic injuries are on the same level. This is the first time Novak took an extended leave and it obviously didn't work. Rafa has dealt with bad knees (mainly) for years and taken extended periods of time off. And while Novak's style is certainly physical, a lot of his effectiveness comes from speed and incredible agility/flexibility. Rafa's comes more from explosive force and lots of crazy running, which combined with his genetic structure has caused him to miss a lot of time--the most for a top player on tour.

 

[Moxie]

I think it's an overstatement to claim that Rafa's and Novak's chronic injuries are on the same level. This is the first time Novak took an extended leave and it obviously didn't work. Rafa has dealt with bad knees (mainly) for years and taken extended periods of time off. And while Novak's style is certainly physical, a lot of his effectiveness comes from speed and incredible agility/flexibility. Rafa's comes more from explosive force and lots of crazy running, which combined with his genetic structure has caused him to miss a lot of time--the most for a top player on tour.

Neither of us are doctors or sports physios. Rafa has been dealing with degenerative knees issues for years, but, shhh, don't tell the Fed fans that, eh? My point is only that Novak's tennis years are catching up to him, too. And for as much as Rafa has had injury lay-offs, the longest one was 7-7 1/2 months. Djokovic, if you discount the 3-4 matches he played at the AO, and an XO or 2, will be getting into 10-11 months, depending on when he comes back. Also, Nadal has never had surgery. Djokovic is dealing with surgery to his racquet arm, and a revised service motion, to accommodate his elbow. And maybe a surgery on his right hand. I'd say this was potentially more worrying than Nadal's sore knees. But I guess we'll see how it works, going forward. In any case, I think it's hard to claim that Djokovic has less wear-and-tear than Nadal. Even Fed is showing the signs.

 

[roberto]

I'm looking at cumulative time out of competition as well as # of occurrences, and unfortunately for him, no one comes close to Nadal. I'd agree that we don't know how serious Novak's condition is because this is the first time he's been out with an extended injury, and we'll have to see how he comes back from whatever "procedure" he had on his elbow (his description lol).

 

[Moxie]

I'm looking at cumulative time out of competition as well as # of occurrences, and unfortunately for him, no one comes close to Nadal. I'd agree that we don't know how serious Novak's condition is because this is the first time he's been out with an extended injury, and we'll have to see how he comes back from whatever "procedure" he had on his elbow (his description lol).

None of the Big 4 has spent as much cumulative time off the tour due to injury as Nadal, though del Potro is considered very elite, and he's spent quite a lot of time out, with attempts at rehab and recovery from surgery. It's not the same to add up a couple of months here and there, and then to see a nearly 1 year absence due to injury. Murray and Djokovic are entering del Potro territory, here. I know what you're saying about Rafa having lost so much time to injury, and it's one of the reasons he hasn't had the number of weeks at #1 that he might have, and probably some of the Major wins. But he has continued to manage chronic knee issues. (And the appendicitis was just bad luck.) I still don't know if you can call it the same as what Djokovic and Murray are facing...elbow and hip surgery, respectively, post-30, and nearly a year off the tour. It's not just a math equation of how many months you've spent off-tour. It's about how and where you're injured, how badly, and at what point in your career.

 

[Federberg]

I knew you would say that, and it's an old saw, but Novak has been catching up to Rafa in "tennis years" over the past few, and he also plays a heavy attritional style. IF he gets past this elbow issue - on his racquet arm - and I'm not sure about the right hand surgery. He's also had wrist and shoulder issues over the last 3 years, wrist recurring (by observation) and shoulder chronic, to hear his fans tell it. And he's got a new serve to deal with. Sure, he could be a threat for years to come...look at Roger and Rafa. But I think he's past the point of saying he's that much younger than Rafa, chronologically or in tennis years.

He's no where near as attritional as Rafa. One thing you can say about Novak in his pomp, he put the opposition to the sword whenever he could, and never relied on his defensive skills to get himself out of a jam. The idea that Novak is catching up with Rafa in tennis years is laughable really. I don't recall any other major injuries that have stalled his career since the start of his dominance. All I'm saying is that if, and remember I'm a Novak doubter at this point, if he can get past this then I can't write off his getting back to the top. I still say that Fedal are made of different mental stuff so I'm sceptical he would be able to do it

 

[Federberg]

^By the way, I get that the way Rafa plays is what you like to see. Horses for courses and all that. But you have to accept the cost of that style of play. It's wilfully blind not to see that there are consequences to it, and that's what constantly harping on about Rafa frequently having bad luck implies. Even Uncle Toni is now saying Rafa needs to modify his style of play if he wants to overhaul Federer.

Novak has always been slightly different to Rafa in that regard, when he started trying to catch Roger and Rafa he played attritional matches. I even recall Roger making a comment in a post match interview about how he wasn't wasting his time playing nonsense matches that took away his energy at the end of slams. It's quite clear it was directed at Novak, and it's clear that Novak took it to heart, because after that he started getting through the draw at least as efficiently as Roger did. The better analogue to Rafa is Murray who has continued to make a drama of getting through the draw. As for Novak this seems to be almost a Delpo like hurdle in his career right now

 

[Moxie]

Part of my point of catching up to Rafa in tennis years is the number of matches. There was a time when he was well-more than a year's worth behind Rafa, but no longer, or at least not until he stopped playing last year. And I know you Fed fans like to blame Rafa at every turn for his own injuries (when you admit he has them,) but I only said he was unlucky to have had appendicitis above. And you have to admit, that's unlucky. But I do agree we'll have to see how he comes back from this to see how high he rises again and how long his career lasts. But I do agree he's not as mental resilient as Fedal.

 

[Federberg]

Part of my point of catching up to Rafa in tennis years is the number of matches. There was a time when he was well-more than a year's worth behind Rafa, but no longer, or at least not until he stopped playing last year. And I know you Fed fans like to blame Rafa at every turn for his own injuries (when you admit he has them,) but I only said he was unlucky to have had appendicitis above. And you have to admit, that's unlucky. But I do agree we'll have to see how he comes back from this to see how high he rises again and how long his career lasts. But I do agree he's not as mental resilient as Fedal.

there you go again... you make the excuses, we're to blame. Rafa's style of play is to blame for the vast majority of the injuries. We don't need to make excuses, our guy's in front. You like to contextualise that fact. Frankly the only thing you should be saying is that Rafa is 5 years younger and can catch up. Anything else is weak sauce to me

 

[Moxie]

We're talking about Novak, not Roger. You do blame Rafa for his injuries. I find that oddly moralistic. As if his style of play is a character flaw.

 

[Federberg]

We're talking about Novak, not Roger. You do blame Rafa for his injuries. I find that oddly moralistic. As if his style of play is a character flaw.

Lol! Classic Moxie. You mention Federer (by pointing to his fans) and then act as if I'm the one bringing him up? You do like to twist a thread don't you

You've lost me now... what does his style of play have to do with morality or character flaws. It's what we see, it's sports. And quite frankly Fed fans respond to what you Rafa fans say. A lot of us actually have nothing against Rafa per se. It's the fans that cause the polemic generally

 

[Andy22]

Well its Weird that djokovic did not gotten Injured sooner the way he plays then Djokovic playing style finally got djokovic injured. We will see if comes back as strong as Nadal did in 2013 not everyone can do that.

 

[Federberg]

Well its Weird that djokovic did not gotten Injured sooner the way he plays then Djokovic playing style finally got djokovic injured. We will see if comes back as strong as Nadal did in 2013 not everyone can do that.

I can agree with that. All that bendy, sliding stuff he does. He's obviously made of tougher stuff than we think just looking at him. The guy is whippet thin and looks fragile. I've been expecting some sort of ankle injury for years, but it clearly didn't happen. In a way it's a big surprise it was his elbow that gave out

 

[El Dude]

A couple things to throw in the mix.

One, a lot is said about how Rafa's attritional style has negatively impacted his career. On the other hand, he's almost 32 and #1 in the world, so it isn't like he's wheelchairing himself onto court. It may even be that his frequent injuries actually prolonged his career. From 2004 to the present, Rafa has missed 8 Slams - that's two year's worth. I'm not saying he's actually 30 in "tennis years," but maybe those two years worth of missed Slams have lessened the wear and tear a bit.

Re: Novak. People bag on him for mental weakness, or at least not being as strong as Fedal. I'm not sure I agree with this. Remember, this is a guy who was #3 for four years in a row, always a third wheel. But then he found a higher gear in 2011 and surpassed a still potent Roger and g Rafa at his best. No small accomplishment. His 2011 and 2015 are better years than any of Rafa's, and as good or better than Roger's best years. While Novak doesn't quite have the same career accomplishments (although he's not far behind Rafa, closer than the 4 Slam differential would suggest), he's in the same conversation of "first tier greats" and has his own unique stamp of greatness.

 

[Federberg]

His 2011 is not better than Roger's best years. He wasn't there at the end. Either you concede that he's not as mentally strong as Fedal or you concede that his year was not as good. You can't have it both ways.

As for mental strength in general, I don't see Fedal flaking out like he's done in the far past or even his allowing a final set bagel against Thiem. I'm sorry they just don't do that.

As for Rafa's tennis years that might be the case in terms of slams missed, but his propensity to get injured belies that. His being no 1 at his age doesn't say anything about his age at all. He is a top 2 player of all time in my view, that's exactly where he should be.

 

[Andy22]

I

A couple things to throw in the mix.

One, a lot is said about how Rafa's attritional style has negatively impacted his career. On the other hand, he's almost 32 and #1 in the world, so it isn't like he's wheelchairing himself onto court. It may even be that his frequent injuries actually prolonged his career. From 2004 to the present, Rafa has missed 8 Slams - that's two year's worth. I'm not saying he's actually 30 in "tennis years," but maybe those two years worth of missed Slams have lessened the wear and tear a bit.

Re: Novak. People bag on him for mental weakness, or at least not being as strong as Fedal. I'm not sure I agree with this. Remember, this is a guy who was #3 for four years in a row, always a third wheel. But then he found a higher gear in 2011 and surpassed a still potent Roger and g Rafa at his best. No small accomplishment. His 2011 and 2015 are better years than any of Rafa's, and as good or better than Roger's best years. While Novak doesn't quite have the same career accomplishments (although he's not far behind Rafa, closer than the 4 Slam differential would suggest), he's in the same conversation of "first tier greats" and has his own unique stamp of greatness.

I dont think Djokovic best years is better than Nadal best year of 2010 winning on all surfaces in the some year the only player to do that. Djokovic did not do this 2011, djokovic failed at the wtf RR Nadal made the final 2010 wtf. 2015 djokovic lost on clay and to Federer 3 times might have been as good but not better plus at the end of the day 2010 Nadal 3 slams 2011 ,2015 djokovic 3 slams thats the some not better. Better than Federer best years that a joke:lulz2: winning on all surfaces is better than winning on 2/3 like Djokovic did

 

[Busted]

I can agree with that. All that bendy, sliding stuff he does. He's obviously made of tougher stuff than we think just looking at him. The guy is whippet thin and looks fragile. I've been expecting some sort of ankle injury for years, but it clearly didn't happen. In a way it's a big surprise it was his elbow that gave out

Kind of ironic, isn't it? He does yoga and can twist himself into a pretzel...but he can't bend his elbow without being in pain. For all of us non-flexible people...there's some kind of weird poetic justice about that...

 

[Federberg]

^one thing no one seems to be thinking about is that if this injury has any impact on how he attacks his backhand in future it could be fatal to his future ambitions. It's going to be very interesting to see how he is when he's back. I still maintain it's by no means certain he regains his former status. Quite apart from the physical stuff, only Federer, Nadal and Agassi have ever been able to reinvent themselves with seeming ease. That's a pretty special quality in itself

 

[Moxie]

^one thing no one seems to be thinking about is that if this injury has any impact on how he attacks his backhand in future it could be fatal to his future ambitions. It's going to be very interesting to see how he is when he's back. I still maintain it's by no means certain he regains his former status. Quite apart from the physical stuff, only Federer, Nadal and Agassi have ever been able to reinvent themselves with seeming ease. That's a pretty special quality in itself

This is a good point. Not saying that his injury is as severe as delPo's have been, but it's on his racquet arm. Juan Martín's FH has rarely been quite as potent since his right wrist injury, whether from weakness or lack of confidence in the wrist. And the left wrist, which ended up being worse, has had a major impact on his backhand. I don't think Djokovic's injury is anywhere near as serious, but it can mess with his confidence in his strokes. It's already altered his service motion. (Don't know if that's temporary.)

 

[Moxie]

A couple things to throw in the mix.

One, a lot is said about how Rafa's attritional style has negatively impacted his career. On the other hand, he's almost 32 and #1 in the world, so it isn't like he's wheelchairing himself onto court. It may even be that his frequent injuries actually prolonged his career. From 2004 to the present, Rafa has missed 8 Slams - that's two year's worth. I'm not saying he's actually 30 in "tennis years," but maybe those two years worth of missed Slams have lessened the wear and tear a bit.

Re: Novak. People bag on him for mental weakness, or at least not being as strong as Fedal. I'm not sure I agree with this. Remember, this is a guy who was #3 for four years in a row, always a third wheel. But then he found a higher gear in 2011 and surpassed a still potent Roger and g Rafa at his best. No small accomplishment. His 2011 and 2015 are better years than any of Rafa's, and as good or better than Roger's best years. While Novak doesn't quite have the same career accomplishments (although he's not far behind Rafa, closer than the 4 Slam differential would suggest), he's in the same conversation of "first tier greats" and has his own unique stamp of greatness.

Personally, I don't mean to say that Djokovic is mentally weak, in general terms, just in comparison to Fedal. You have to be pretty mentally tough to hold your form and nerve to win 4 Slams in a row. But he does show his emotions more, and when something is bothering him, it can get to his tennis. Roger and Rafa generally don't show that. The last couple of years have been mysterious with Djoker. I agree with Federberg on this. He also seemed to lose interest late in the Wimbledon match with Querrey. It's not that surprising that he had a dip after winning the FO/4th in a row/Nole Slam, but he didn't really bounce back. Whatever was going on with his body and his personal life (he's admitted to both things bothering him,) it derailed him for longer than would be expected. I will say that Rafa had a crisis of confidence in 2016, blowing leads, etc. But he has pulled his head and his tennis back together. We'll see how Djokovic does with the comeback. But he is more inclined to let his emotions and external factors influence his playing.

 

[10isfan]

Djoke is planning to play IW, which is sooner than I expected after surgery.