How to win against Rafa --- The tale of two Swiss Blokes

[coban]

In the last two games prior to the AO final, Wawrinka went 4-0 in sets vs. Nadal, 3 of 4 were lost in tie-breakers, source:

2013 Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, 7-6(5), 7-6(6) Stats
2013 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Shanghai 7-6(10), 6-1 Stats

I would argue that a inspired Wawrinka with a "new" game would be in a clear position to take a set (or three) from Nadal. Also, when you look at WHEN the two games above were played (late in the season, close to AO), it is pretty clear that Wawrinka had stepped up his game significantly, and he was making progress.

I view the AO win as a step of progress for Wawrinka.

 

[Front242]

Yup. Only a few points separated the winners of 3 of those sets. Definitely showing marked improvement. Whether he'll stay playing consistently well is what remains to be seen.

 

[Moxie]

In the last two games prior to the AO final, Wawrinka went 4-0 in sets vs. Nadal, 3 of 4 were lost in tie-breakers, source:

2013 Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, 7-6(5), 7-6(6) Stats
2013 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Shanghai 7-6(10), 6-1 Stats

I would argue that a inspired Wawrinka with a "new" game would be in a clear position to take a set (or three) from Nadal. Also, when you look at WHEN the two games above were played (late in the season, close to AO), it is pretty clear that Wawrinka had stepped up his game significantly, and he was making progress.

I view the AO win as a step of progress for Wawrinka.

I absolutely agree that Wawrinka had a great season last year, and was a much improved player. Even going into the final, I didn't think the H2H was going to make a smooth glide for Nadal. And Wawrinka took not one set but 3 off of Rafa. I'd say it's more than a step in his progress. It will be interesting to see how he capitalizes on it.

 

[lacatch]

I feel like Stan is ready to take names and kick butt

 

[britbox]

There is no "blueprint" to winning against Rafa. Clearly guys who can hit through him and execute an almost flawless match have a chance (cue Soderling, Rosol, Federer on fast/indoor courts etc...).

That's not how Djokovic enjoyed his success however. He played the patient game. I've heard several times that Djokovic turned the tables on Rafa by being more aggressive. I disagree totally. He pulled the trigger less early and was often "out-rafa-ing Rafa".
How many players can do that? Nobody, other than Djokovic himself.

Question with Wawrinka - could he have maintained it for the duration of the match? Not that it matters as we'll never know the answer. What I would say about Stan is that he took out Nole and has shown huge belief in the last 12 months... and he was riding the crest of the wave. I said at the time I felt robbed by the way the match concluded... but Stan was the man of the tournament and deserved the title.

 

[isabelle]

I feel like Stan is ready to take names and kick butt

Hope so

 

[Luxilon Borg]

There is no "blueprint" to winning against Rafa. Clearly guys who can hit through him and execute an almost flawless match have a chance (cue Soderling, Rosol, Federer on fast/indoor courts etc...).

That's not how Djokovic enjoyed his success however. He played the patient game. I've heard several times that Djokovic turned the tables on Rafa by being more aggressive. I disagree totally. He pulled the trigger less early and was often "out-rafa-ing Rafa".
How many players can do that? Nobody, other than Djokovic himself.

Question with Wawrinka - could he have maintained it for the duration of the match? Not that it matters as we'll never know the answer. What I would say about Stan is that he took out Nole and has shown huge belief in the last 12 months... and he was riding the crest of the wave. I said at the time I felt robbed by the way the match concluded... but Stan was the man of the tournament and deserved the title.

Spot on, good post. Your point about Joker is over looked. He has never blown rafa away. He has bested him in movement and sheer will and patience.

The Rosol match is a blip..five sets of swing for the fences tennis...and what has he done since. Rafa has destroyed him in follow up matches.

 

[Front242]

The Rosol match is a blip..five sets of swing for the fences tennis...and what has he done since. Rafa has destroyed him in follow up matches.

Er, they've only played twice in singles and 6-2 7-6(7) is hardly destroyed. 6-2 first set was a routine scoreline but that was pretty damn far from destroying in set 2.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

There is no "blueprint" to winning against Rafa. Clearly guys who can hit through him and execute an almost flawless match have a chance (cue Soderling, Rosol, Federer on fast/indoor courts etc...).

That's not how Djokovic enjoyed his success however. He played the patient game. I've heard several times that Djokovic turned the tables on Rafa by being more aggressive. I disagree totally. He pulled the trigger less early and was often "out-rafa-ing Rafa".
How many players can do that? Nobody, other than Djokovic himself.

Question with Wawrinka - could he have maintained it for the duration of the match? Not that it matters as we'll never know the answer. What I would say about Stan is that he took out Nole and has shown huge belief in the last 12 months... and he was riding the crest of the wave. I said at the time I felt robbed by the way the match concluded... but Stan was the man of the tournament and deserved the title.

IN 2008 USO Andy Murray Outrafaed Rafa in the Semifinals. Andy obviously did not hit
through him. He won with patient baseline rallies. To top it, I believe it is one of the rare
losses after which Rafa did not claim some form of injury.

Of course it is just one match and Andy has a 5-13 record against Rafa.

It is lot easier to win a match against Rafa by hitting thorugh him. It is lot harded
to win against him by outrafaing.

 

[DarthFed]

Not to start another war but the Murray match in 08 was the one Rafa highlighted when he started complaining about the schedule, noting that he had no energy left when he lost to Andy.

Novak kind of outRafa'ed Nadal in 2011 but part of that matchup is that Nole's backhand can deal with Rafa's forehand all day long so it is usually Rafa doing the running. And then add to that Nole's return is the best in the game and that's his "blueprint" to win. Nole wasn't ultra-aggressive as BritBox mentioned.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Not to start another war but the Murray match in 08 was the one Rafa highlighted when he started complaining about the schedule, noting that he had no energy left when he lost to Andy.

But, that is "general fatigue" excuse which should not be confused with "injury
in some part of the body" excuse.

 

[Front242]

Well I can imagine Tommy Haas is pretty tired too at 35 and soon to be 36 playing as much as he does. Overplaying and not persuing a smart schedule is your own fault if you end up tired.

 

[Moxie]

Not to start another war but the Murray match in 08 was the one Rafa highlighted when he started complaining about the schedule, noting that he had no energy left when he lost to Andy.

But, that is "general fatigue" excuse which should not be confused with "injury
in some part of the body" excuse.

I don't remember that that was when Rafa started complaining about the schedule, but I'll believe you. It was an Olympic year, in Beijing. That schedule was brutal. But Murray did out-play Rafa over the 2 days it took to play that match. And Nadal had chances in two completely different weather situations to best Andy.

 

[Luxilon Borg]

The Rosol match is a blip..five sets of swing for the fences tennis...and what has he done since. Rafa has destroyed him in follow up matches.

Er, they've only played twice in singles and 6-2 7-6(7) is hardly destroyed. 6-2 first set was a routine scoreline but that was pretty damn far from destroying in set 2.

Regardless, I would hardly use Rosol a blueprint on how to beat Nadal..as I said...a blip.

 

[Front242]

The Rosol match is a blip..five sets of swing for the fences tennis...and what has he done since. Rafa has destroyed him in follow up matches.

Er, they've only played twice in singles and 6-2 7-6(7) is hardly destroyed. 6-2 first set was a routine scoreline but that was pretty damn far from destroying in set 2.

Regardless, I would hardly use Rosol a blueprint on how to beat Nadal..as I said...a blip.

Well I agree there except it wasn't a blip but rather a case of a low ranked player having the best day of his career and playing incredible as opposed to a blip by Nadal. It is a blueprint for beating him by playing ultra aggressive but hardly anyone can keep that level up all match. A similar occurrence of divine intervention would be Tsonga's incredible performance against Nadal in the AO '08. Again, nothing much wrong Nadal did there, simply an incredible day's play by Tsonga and likewise as with Rosol, one he's never since replicated and probably never will.

 

[Luxilon Borg]

The Rosol match is a blip..five sets of swing for the fences tennis...and what has he done since. Rafa has destroyed him in follow up matches.

Er, they've only played twice in singles and 6-2 7-6(7) is hardly destroyed. 6-2 first set was a routine scoreline but that was pretty damn far from destroying in set 2.

Regardless, I would hardly use Rosol a blueprint on how to beat Nadal..as I said...a blip.

Well I agree there except it wasn't a blip but rather a case of a low ranked player having the best day of his career and playing incredible as opposed to a blip by Nadal. It is a blueprint for beating him by playing ultra aggressive but hardly anyone can keep that level up all match. A similar occurrence of divine intervention would be Tsonga's incredible performance against Nadal in the AO '08. Again, nothing much wrong Nadal did there, simply an incredible day's play by Tsonga and likewise as with Rosol, one he's never since replicated and probably never will.

Agree, all well said. Let's also not forget it was a 5 set match, hardly a blow out like the Tsonga or Del Po losses at the AO and USO.

Also, Nadal is just a better player now than 2008. In every way.

 

[Front242]

The Rosol match is a blip..five sets of swing for the fences tennis...and what has he done since. Rafa has destroyed him in follow up matches.

Er, they've only played twice in singles and 6-2 7-6(7) is hardly destroyed. 6-2 first set was a routine scoreline but that was pretty damn far from destroying in set 2.

Regardless, I would hardly use Rosol a blueprint on how to beat Nadal..as I said...a blip.

Well I agree there except it wasn't a blip but rather a case of a low ranked player having the best day of his career and playing incredible as opposed to a blip by Nadal. It is a blueprint for beating him by playing ultra aggressive but hardly anyone can keep that level up all match. A similar occurrence of divine intervention would be Tsonga's incredible performance against Nadal in the AO '08. Again, nothing much wrong Nadal did there, simply an incredible day's play by Tsonga and likewise as with Rosol, one he's never since replicated and probably never will.

Agree, all well said. Let's also not forget it was a 5 set match, hardly a blow out like the Tsonga or Del Po losses at the AO and USO.

Also, Nadal is just a better player now than 2008. In every way.

Don't think it would've mattered in either case against Rosol or Tsonga as they both played incredible (5th set from Rosol was unreal). Tsonga in particular would've likely beaten anyone the way he played that day. Never seen such an incredible volleying displaying in my life. Insane stop volleys and many left Tsonga himself smiling in disbelief.

 

[Luxilon Borg]

Er, they've only played twice in singles and 6-2 7-6(7) is hardly destroyed. 6-2 first set was a routine scoreline but that was pretty damn far from destroying in set 2.

Regardless, I would hardly use Rosol a blueprint on how to beat Nadal..as I said...a blip.

Well I agree there except it wasn't a blip but rather a case of a low ranked player having the best day of his career and playing incredible as opposed to a blip by Nadal. It is a blueprint for beating him by playing ultra aggressive but hardly anyone can keep that level up all match. A similar occurrence of divine intervention would be Tsonga's incredible performance against Nadal in the AO '08. Again, nothing much wrong Nadal did there, simply an incredible day's play by Tsonga and likewise as with Rosol, one he's never since replicated and probably never will.

Agree, all well said. Let's also not forget it was a 5 set match, hardly a blow out like the Tsonga or Del Po losses at the AO and USO.

Also, Nadal is just a better player now than 2008. In every way.

Don't think it would've mattered in either case against Rosol or Tsonga as they both played incredible (5th set from Rosol was unreal). Tsonga in particular would've likely beaten anyone the way he played that day. Never seen such an incredible volleying displaying in my life. Insane stop volleys and many left Tsonga himself smiling in disbelief.

Agree and I was surprised when Tsonga could not continue that level in the final.

The 2009 DelPo match was a more brutal take down. Ruthless. I believe it was 2, 2, and 2.

 

[Front242]

Yeah Del Potro's level that match was pretty fearsome alright. Tsonga's brilliance that day was mostly at the net in AO '08. Never seen anything quite like it. Here are some of the best highlights of Tsonga's net play.

[video=youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nO6lalt5f6M&feature=player_detailpage[/video]

 

[Front242]

There were many mighty forehands from Tsonga too of course, not just all net winners. Sadly he's never come anywhere close to playing that well again imo.