Fed Fans – Roger Federer Talk

GameSetAndMath

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Factoid: Federer has won 18 matches after saving matching points , the most recent being the one against Paire in Halle. On the flip side, Federer has lost 19 matches after wasting match point(s) , the most recent being IW finals against JMDP. Sadly four of these losses were at GSs and that too, three of them were at SF stage (two to Djokovic at USO , one to Safin at AO and one to Haas at AO in 4th round), whereas only two of his wins were in GSs (one vs. Monfils at USO and one vs. Cilic at Wimbledon) but he did not win either of those events.
 
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shawnbm

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I get the feeling Federer gets upset before the finals at SW19 this year.
 

Moxie

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I get the feeling Federer gets upset before the finals at SW19 this year.
Shawn, you join the legions of Fed fans that are having a "bad feeling" about this Wimbledon. What is that about? Suddenly everyone is having a collective hunch? Is it nerves, or the anti-whammy of not trying to predict the win? He is favored to win it.
 

shawnbm

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I just don’t think he is returning well enough and forcing breaks—he’s serving well enough but he’s not getting other guys games like he often does on grass. We shall see.
 

DarthFed

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I just don’t think he is returning well enough and forcing breaks—he’s serving well enough but he’s not getting other guys games like he often does on grass. We shall see.

Actually it's the other way around IMO. Roger's ROS has literally been the only good part of his game the last couple weeks. He was broken a ton in Halle against very weak competition and his baseline play really has been poor aside from the Raonic final.
 

monfed

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I think Fed will continue to struggle in the first week but I hope his game clicks into gear in the 2nd week.
 

GameSetAndMath

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I just don’t think he is returning well enough and forcing breaks—he’s serving well enough but he’s not getting other guys games like he often does on grass. We shall see.

You have clearly not been watching Roger on grass in the warm-up tourneys. Here is a catalogue of how many times he was broken.

Misha Zverev ---2
Benoit Paire -- 2
Matthew Ebden -- 2
Dennis Kudla -- 1
Borna Coric --- 2

When Roger used to suck during 2013 through 2016, it used to be the case that he needed to generate a lot of break points to convert one. But, by and large he will be holding his serve.

Especially, on grass and against journeyman, I have never seen Roger broken this many times. He was broken 9 times.

That is what is worrying me more.

I am not saying his ROS has improved. He still needs to generate an average of 4 to 6 BPs to convert one. But, first priority should be to hod your fort. That is missing suddenly.
 
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DarthFed

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You have clearly not been watching Roger on grass in the warm-up tourneys. Here is a catalogue of how many times he was broken.

Misha Zverev ---2
Benoit Paire -- 2
Matthew Ebden -- 2
Dennis Kudla -- 1
Borna Coric --- 2

When Roger used to suck during 2013 through 2016, it used to be the case that he needed to generate a lot of break points to convert one. But, by and large he will be holding his serve.

Especially, on grass and against journeyman, I have never seen Roger broken this many times. He was broken 9 times.

That is what is worrying me more.

I am not saying his ROS has improved. He still needs to generate an average of 4 to 6 BPs to convert one. But, first priority should be to hod your fort. That is missing suddenly.

Yeah it's crazy to be broken 9 times in 9 matches on fast grass vs who he's played. On the flip side he has broken serve about 20 times, a pretty solid total. Halle was just a mess, not just about the serve stats, he was just bad. The final was actually his best match of the week but it was an enormous step up in competition almost by default.
 

shawnbm

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I have not seen many matches, but simply (wrongly?) presumed be was holding serve easily since so many sets went to tiebreakers. The few matches I caught part of he seemed to serve and win in about one minute.
 

Chris Koziarz

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You have clearly not been watching Roger on grass in the warm-up tourneys. Here is a catalogue of how many times he was broken.

Misha Zverev ---2
Benoit Paire -- 2
Matthew Ebden -- 2
Dennis Kudla -- 1
Borna Coric --- 2

When Roger used to suck during 2013 through 2016, it used to be the case that he needed to generate a lot of break points to convert one. But, by and large he will be holding his serve.

Especially, on grass and against journeyman, I have never seen Roger broken this many times. He was broken 9 times.

That is what is worrying me more.

I am not saying his ROS has improved. He still needs to generate an average of 4 to 6 BPs to convert one. But, first priority should be to hod your fort. That is missing suddenly.
It's possible Fed improved his return game lately, at the expense of neglecting his service a bit. Hence more BP conversions and more own games lost. Of course to it, you'll reply the opposition was weak in Halle, so maybe his return game did not improve and speculative arguments will continue. But I'm positive looking forward to wimby hoping he raises his serve game there, peaking in SF/F as required. And the opposition in Halle might not have been as weak as on paper: e.g. Borna had a week of his life and probably everybody would have lost to him there, nad & joker included. I'd be surprised if Borna carried over such form through 2 weeks of wimby and be equally difficult potential 4th round opponent. If so, he would've attained a rare ability to peak at the right time at his very young age. Then I'll call Borna a next big champion about to dethrone all big4, but not yet.