Early US-Open Ruminations

[rafanoy1992]

I dunno, Moxie - I don't think Roger is as vulnerable as Rafa on the mostly medium to fast hard courts of this time of year. Clearly Roger's age hasn't been s huge factor, at least with his light schedule. The guy had lost only twice all year, and to journeyman while rusty.

But I really don't want to get drawn into a Fedal skirmish. My point is merely that Roger enters this portion of the year as the favorite to win any tournament he is in. Rafa is playing great, but has also only played well in this part of the year a few times. I think he'll go fine, but don't expect clay dominance.


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I do not think a lot of Rafa fans expect him to dominate the US Hardcourt season. At the same time, I do not think he will be horrible either (2015 and 2016).

We just think Nadal will be ready this time especially he knows the number 1 ranking is up for grabs AND he feels fresh even if he played a lot of matches.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rafa will be a force to reckon with in the hard court part of the season, even if not in the indoor portion of it. After all Rafa reached three finals on hard courts at the beginning of the season (including AO), when the competition was tougher. With players falling out like flies, can't see much reason why he cannot do well. Hope Rog stops him though (multiple times, will do good for H2H).

 

[rafanoy1992]

Rafa will be a force to reckon with in the hard court part of the season, even if not in the indoor portion of it. After all Rafa reached three finals on hard courts at the beginning of the season (including AO), when the competition was tougher. With players falling out like flies, can't see much reason why he cannot do well. Hope Rog stops him though (multiple times, will do good for H2H).

As long Nadal beats Federer at the US Open final (if it ever happens), then I would be happy

 

[GameSetAndMath]

As long Nadal beats Federer at the US Open final (if it ever happens), then I would be happy

Too greedy. I am willing to give two more titles to Rafa this year; Montreal (without facing Roger) and Beijing. That's all.

He is scheduled to play 8 more tourneys. Apart from the two titles, his results will probably be two finals, two deep runs and two early exits.

 

[El Dude]

Moxie, you seem a bit more unbalanced than usual with your Fedal baiting.

I don't think it is "smugly overestimating" Roger to consider him the player to beat going into this part of the year, when the courts are generally at least medium. I'm not saying he's going to sweep it, just that at any given tournament he enters he's the favorite. This can change tournament to tournament, of course, but as of right now he's the player to beat.

But I think Rafa will do well...I just think there is some question what his level will be, especially later in the year.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The Montreal Draw is out . Here are the projected quarterfinals, if the seeds hold to form.

Rafa vs. Milos
Sasha vs. Tsonga
------------------------------------
Grigor vs. Thiem
Kei vs. Fed

Rafa will have to play JMDP/Isner in R16 and then follow it up against another big server in Raonic in QF (with home crowd support). He needs to reach SF to get to #1. The prognosis does not look great. I don't see any banana peels in Roger's path to finals.

 

[Moxie]

Moxie, you seem a bit more unbalanced than usual with your Fedal baiting.

I don't think it is "smugly overestimating" Roger to consider him the player to beat going into this part of the year, when the courts are generally at least medium. I'm not saying he's going to sweep it, just that at any given tournament he enters he's the favorite. This can change tournament to tournament, of course, but as of right now he's the player to beat.

But I think Rafa will do well...I just think there is some question what his level will be, especially later in the year.

Yo, what did I ever do to you that you 'should treat me with such disrespect,' to quote Don Corleone? I just enjoy a scrap.

 

[Moxie]

If he's healthy who would you have as the favorite over Roger at any of the tournaments left? Even playing like 2012-2015 he should do well. Just got to stay hungry, that's the big thing

I think it will depend on what we see up to and through the USO. Hungry/enthusiastic for winning...I think Roger is always that. I'm just thinking of what Chris Evert is inclined to say, which is that as you get older, there are more and more days when you wake up and just don't have it, by which I think she means physically as much as mentally.

 

[isabelle]

sad to see the defending champ unable to defend his title. I hope for a Sir Andy's win, if not maybe a young gun (Thiem, Zverev ?)

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It is time for weekly update on odds of winning USO. This update comes after the big announcement from Stan and the small announcements from Andy and Cough Drop. Everyone with a chance of 1% or above is listed below.

1. Goat 3
2. Bull 9/2
3. Muzza 8
4. Cough Drop 16
5. Gollum 20
6. Sasha / Domi 28
8. Samurai 33
9. Bad Boy 40
10. Baby / DelPo 50
12. Muhammad Ali 80
13. Bird 100

Once we have come down to Berdych you know that the list of people with a puncher's chance has ended. Anyway, I was expecting a major shake up, but did not come about. In particular, Roger and Rafa's odds remain the same despite the multitude of recent injury announcements (Novak's announcement was already taken care of in last week's odds).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It is now official. Fedal will be seeded #1 and #2 (one way or other) at the USO, no matter what happens in Cincy.

So, Fedal match cannot happen before finals at USO.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It is time for the update of USO odds after Montreal Masters and the injury scare of Fed (not to mention a long list of other injured players).

1. Goat 33/19
2. Bull 11/4
3. Muzza 8
4. Sasha 10
5. Cough Drop 20
6. Domi / Gollum 25
8. Samurai / Bad Boy 33
10. DelPo 40
11. Baby 50
12. Tsonga 80
13. Bird / Clown / New Kid in the Block 100

Interestingly, despite the injury scare Fed's odds have substantially improved compared to before. I guess the thinking must be with a week of rest and not overplaying he would have a better chance. Also, despite Bull's loss to New Kid in the Block, his odds also have improved considerably. Needless to say, Sasha had the most improvement in odds from 28 last week to 10 now. Interestingly, New Kid made it to the list of people with 1% chance or better even though he would have to qualify in the first place to get into MD, if USTA folks don't give him WC. For the first time Fedal now have better chance than the field (64% to 36%).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It is now official. Fedal will be seeded #1 and #2 (one way or other) at the USO, no matter what happens in Cincy.

So, Fedal match cannot happen before finals at USO.

I must make an amendment. For losing in the very first match a player gets 10 pts. These 10 pts were automatically added in the live rankings yesterday. However, since Fed withdrew from Cincy (as opposed to losing in the first round), he would not get any points. So, Andy would be seeded #2 at USO by a whopping margin of 5 pts.

Tennis is a game of inches sometimes. Now, the same thing applies to ranking. Fed was +5 before the decision and now -5. If only Fed has hired me as part of his team, I would have advised him to play in the opening match and tank it so that he can get #2 seed at USO.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The wild cards for USO are announced today. It went to six young americans (all under 22) and one reciprocal French WC and one reciprocal Australian WC. Bjorn, Tommy Paul, T. Fritz and Eubanks are among those who got..

Conspicuous by omission is the new kid in the block. He has to play quals to get into MD. However, he withdrew from the Vancouver challenger that he was supposed to play this week and so will be fresh for the quals.

 

[isabelle]

Nishikori won't play till 2018...another injured guy !!!

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Nishikori won't play till 2018...another injured guy !!!

Zverev will be the main challenger for Fed and Rafa.

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[Carol]

When Nishi has not been injured?

 

[Busted]

Nishikori won't play till 2018...another injured guy !!!

As bad as he's been playing - he could use some time off to grow 3"...barring that, maybe he can work on his serve, fitness and pain tolerance. Crikey. Suck it up sometimes, buttercup.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It is time to check odds again after Cincy is over.

1. Roger 7/4
2. Rafa 11/4
3. Sasha 8
4. Andy 10
5. Nick 18
6. Cilic / Grigor 20
8. Thiem 25
9. JMDP / Raonic 40
11. Berdych / Tsonga 80
13. Monfils / Shap 100

Sasha moves ahead of Andy. Nick moves ahead of Grigor. Despite needing to qualify new kid on the block is given a puncher's chance.

Next update shall be after the draw is released.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The seeds will be officially announced later. But, as it is based on rankings, we already know it.
Here are the top 16 seeds.

1. Rafa
2. Andy
3. Roger
4. Sasha
5. Cilic
6. Thiem
7. Grigor
8. Raonic
9. Tsonga
10. Goffin
11. Isner
12. RBA
13. Sock
14. Nick
15. Bird
16. PCB

Of course any further announcements of withdrawals from the tourney due to injuries would alter the list, but let us hope not.

Dangerous floaters are unseeded players (outside top 32) who might cause an upset or two. Some dangerous floaters around are Kohly, Verdasco, Shapovalov and Karlovic.