Early US-Open Ruminations

[GameSetAndMath]

There will be Tennys in US Open (get used to this pun being repeated often until he retires).
After Nishioka withdrew, Tennys got in to MD.

 

[Moxie]

So, both Roger and Rafa are playing in both Montreal and Cincy. In these two tourneys, Roger has 0 points to defend, Rafa has 90 and Andy has 600. So, there is a good chance that by the end of Cincy both Roger and Rafa would have passed Andy. It would mean Roger and Rafa would be ranked 1 and 2 (in some order). This would mean no Fedal at USO before finals. This would mean no Fedal at USO, as one or both would not make it all the way to the finals. USO is cursed as usual.

This by no means no Fedal final at the USO. What you're saying is that it could well be possible. You're funny with the witchcraft and the endless massaging of betting odds. It doesn't change the outcome, you know.

 

[mrzz]

Well, as far as 2017 goes, a Fedal final is a very solid possibility. Federer reached the finals the in two majors he got in, Nadal 2 out of 3. Federer reached the finals in 5 out of 7 tournaments he got in, Nadal in 7 out 10 (am I correct?, Nadal's numbers from the top of my head).

In fact, in Federer's case he's been reaching the later stages of majors consistently even before 2017. So I guess it is a quite different situation from AO, where the Fedal final was a complete surprise.

P.S. I got your anti-jinx Mojo, GSM.

 

[Moxie]

So Stan has withdrawn from Canada and Cincy, citing his bum knee. This doesn't bode well for his defending the USO.

 

[Busted]

So Stan has withdrawn from Canada and Cincy, citing his bum knee. This doesn't bode well for his defending the USO.

Murray pulled out of Montreal but not Cincy yet. Cilic is also out of Montreal with an abductor strain...and that doesn't bode well for him defending in Cincy. So far that makes Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka and Cliic - 4 of the top 6 ranked players - out with injuries. At this rate by the time the US Open comes around the only 2 top players left in the draw ill be Federer and Nadal. Let's see if Murray, Cilic and Wawrinka are able to play the US Open - and if not, can someone else step up and take advantage of a much weakened field.

 

[Moxie]

Pretty early in the year to have so many top guys injured. With Murray out, Nadal can take the #1 rank if he makes the SFs in Montreal.

EDIT: I see you made the same point on another thread, @Busted.

 

[Moxie]

Murray pulled out of Montreal but not Cincy yet. Cilic is also out of Montreal with an abductor strain...and that doesn't bode well for him defending in Cincy. So far that makes Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka and Cliic - 4 of the top 6 ranked players - out with injuries. At this rate by the time the US Open comes around the only 2 top players left in the draw ill be Federer and Nadal. Let's see if Murray, Cilic and Wawrinka are able to play the US Open - and if not, can someone else step up and take advantage of a much weakened field.

Obviously everyone is salivating a bit over the Fedal potential, but if you're Raonic, Sasha, Thiem, Kei, Tsonga you must be looking at this as a big opportunity. I'd add that Kyrgios and Dimitrov should be too, but who knows, with them. Also to, I think it was, GSM's point, Isner, who seems committed to over-playing in the run up, would be a fool not to take a chance at a quality USO.

 

[El Dude]

I haven't read the last few pages of this thread so don't know if it's been discussed, but I think the biggest question for the USO is how Rafa adjusts to hard courts. Does he maintain his level of earlier this year or does he start a late season wilt? With so many times players out, if Rafa isn't in form then Roger becomes the overwhelming favorite. I think the draw will be key for Rafa, as he could struggle against a Grigor or Zverev, who are both chomping at the bit for revenge.

I also agree that the opportunity is ripe for the young guns. I still think one of Fedal probably wins it, but I could see Zverev especially going deep. Anything less than his first QF will be really disappointing.

I also think it's a good chance for some of the other Next Gen guys to surprise and go deep: one or two of Khachanov, Medvedev, Rublev, Tiafoe, and even Shapovalov or Ruud could sneak into a QF.


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[Moxie]

It hasn't been discussed, but I don't think there's any reason to think that Rafa won't come out gunning for bear on HCs. He's had a decent rest, and would have had an even better HC season, if it weren't for Roger. Draws will be as key for Roger as for Rafa. Remember that, however a revived Spring of a season that Fed is having, he's still 36 (in a few days.) He's actually much more likely to slip on an I-don't-feel-it-today banana peel than Rafa is. And either can hit a hot player on an off day, and I don't know why you'd think that any of the potentials won't be aiming at Roger in the same was a Rafa. One key will be the younger guys. I'll be disappointed in any one of them that doesn't see the potential opportunity in this section of the season and work their hardest to make the most of it. We may see a bit who's going to float at least closer to the top, even if it ends up with them all under the usual glass ceiling.

 

[rafanoy1992]

It hasn't been discussed, but I don't think there's any reason to think that Rafa won't come out gunning for bear on HCs. He's had a decent rest, and would have had an even better HC season, if it weren't for Roger. Draws will be as key for Roger as for Rafa. Remember that, however a revived Spring of a season that Fed is having, he's still 36 (in a few days.) He's actually much more likely to slip on an I-don't-feel-it-today banana peel than Rafa is. And either can hit a hot player on an off day, and I don't know why you'd think that any of the potentials won't be aiming at Roger in the same was a Rafa. One key will be the younger guys. I'll be disappointed in any one of them that doesn't see the potential opportunity in this section of the season and work their hardest to make the most of it. We may see a bit who's going to float at least closer to the top, even if it ends up with them all under the usual glass ceiling.

Great point Moxie!

Also, another thing is that he looks really fresh even after all the matches he has played this year. In addition, now that he knows Murray is out of Montreal, he literally can earn the number 1 ranking back. I have feeling he will be ready for the US hard court season.

 

[Moxie]

Great point Moxie!

Also, another thing is that he looks really fresh even after all the matches he has played this year. In addition, now that he knows Murray is out of Montreal, he literally can earn the number 1 ranking back. I have feeling he will be ready for the US hard court season.

Rafa, and Roger, too, are not ones to pass up opportunities. It won't be lost on him how close he is to #1 again. I think he will have all of his drive and energy focused on the next 3 tournaments, particularly Montreal, and the USO.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Rafa, and Roger, too, are not ones to pass up opportunities. It won't be lost on him how close he is to #1 again. I think he will have all of his drive and energy focused on the next 3 tournaments, particularly Montreal, and the USO.

One more thing: Rafa knows he let "slip" something last year at the US Open AND the Olympics (against Delpo) so he is determined to play very well on the US Hardcourts.

 

[El Dude]

I dunno, Moxie - I don't think Roger is as vulnerable as Rafa on the mostly medium to fast hard courts of this time of year. Clearly Roger's age hasn't been s huge factor, at least with his light schedule. The guy had lost only twice all year, and to journeyman while rusty.

But I really don't want to get drawn into a Fedal skirmish. My point is merely that Roger enters this portion of the year as the favorite to win any tournament he is in. Rafa is playing great, but has also only played well in this part of the year a few times. I think he'll go fine, but don't expect clay dominance.


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[Moxie]

I'm not expecting clay dominance, or hoping for it, like the sweep of the season in '13. I expect he'll see what is a carrot straight in front of him, and aim at it. He's done well in Canada in the past, and the competition will be coming in fairly light. Cincy is more about practice, and, like Rome, I rather hope he bails early if he's doing well enough so far. The USO is the focus for Rafa and Roger. Given the state of the competition, there's a good chance that one of them takes it. Underestimate Rafa's chances, if you like. But you might be cautious about smugly over-estimating this late-career sprint by Roger.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

What Roger did this year is already special. And it will remain so even if be declines going forward. He is left with nothing to prove. That said, it is not going to be ridiculous to expect a few wins more this year from him.

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[DarthFed]

I'm not expecting clay dominance, or hoping for it, like the sweep of the season in '13. I expect he'll see what is a carrot straight in front of him, and aim at it. He's done well in Canada in the past, and the competition will be coming in fairly light. Cincy is more about practice, and, like Rome, I rather hope he bails early if he's doing well enough so far. The USO is the focus for Rafa and Roger. Given the state of the competition, there's a good chance that one of them takes it. Underestimate Rafa's chances, if you like. But you might be cautious about smugly over-estimating this late-career sprint by Roger.

Smugly overestimating this year for Roger? Someone's bitter and I love it. Overestimate someone who is 31-2 with the losses being ones where he had match points. He's won the 5 most important tourneys he has entered this year. Fed's form is the main question. The way he's played so far this year...he has nothing to worry about from Rafa or anyone else. Last time they met was a very slow hard that favors Nadal a lot in that matchup. Fed played worse than he had in 4 weeks and still won in straights.

But if Fed is "satisfied" or he suddenly starts playing like he's 36 then that opens the door for the evil one and others. I hope he ain't satisfied but who could blame him if he is, this year is beyond anything he could've possibly dreamed of. But his work (career-wise) isn't done. With the state of the tour right now Nadal could still win a bunch more slams. So Roger needs to keep the greed to a maximum, get #20 at USO, no mercy, no fuck ups.

 

[mrzz]

Thing with Federer this year is that not only his record is bloody good, but apart from a very few opportunities, in most of his matches the winner was never in doubt. Exceptions are obviously the five setters at AO, but after that only the Berdych and Kyrgios matches at Miami. So this is real dominance, not just a "great run".

It is true, however, that a similar statement can be made regarding Nadal, either. The only guy stopping him this year is Federer (he only has three losses for the rest of the field). His only non Federer loss on HC was against Querrey in the Acapulco final -- so maybe "vulnerable" is too strong a word, at least against the field. He has won with authority too. Correct me if I am wrong, but his only two match wins that hang out in balance were at AO, against Zverev and Dimitrov.

So everything points to a few more Fedals in the North American HC´s. By now Nadal already knows that, yet again, Federer is his main adversary (as far as 2017 goes). He will surely come with something new tactically wise in Montreal. My guess is that it will be on the serve department.

 

[isabelle]

sad to see all those injured players....I wonder who'll win USO ? the less injured probably

 

[Moxie]

Smugly overestimating this year for Roger? Someone's bitter and I love it. Overestimate someone who is 31-2 with the losses being ones where he had match points. He's won the 5 most important tourneys he has entered this year. Fed's form is the main question. The way he's played so far this year...he has nothing to worry about from Rafa or anyone else. Last time they met was a very slow hard that favors Nadal a lot in that matchup. Fed played worse than he had in 4 weeks and still won in straights.

But if Fed is "satisfied" or he suddenly starts playing like he's 36 then that opens the door for the evil one and others. I hope he ain't satisfied but who could blame him if he is, this year is beyond anything he could've possibly dreamed of. But his work (career-wise) isn't done. With the state of the tour right now Nadal could still win a bunch more slams. So Roger needs to keep the greed to a maximum, get #20 at USO, no mercy, no fuck ups.

You mistook my point. I was responding to El Dude's comment about Roger being the favorite at any tournament he enters going into the rest of the year. I was talking about looking forward, not back at what he's done so far this year. I'm not bitter about that (well, a little about the AO, ) or resentful of Roger. However, I could do without you calling Nadal "the evil one."

 

[DarthFed]

You mistook my point. I was responding to El Dude's comment about Roger being the favorite at any tournament he enters going into the rest of the year. I was talking about looking forward, not back at what he's done so far this year. I'm not bitter about that (well, a little about the AO, ) or resentful of Roger. However, I could do without you calling Nadal "the evil one."

If he's healthy who would you have as the favorite over Roger at any of the tournaments left? Even playing like 2012-2015 he should do well. Just got to stay hungry, that's the big thing