Early US-Open Ruminations

[herios]

Zverev has not performed well in slams. He reached R4 only at Wimbledon this year. why is everyone so optimistic about his USO?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Zverev has not performed well in slams. He reached R4 only at Wimbledon this year. why is everyone so optimistic about his USO?

If you look at the youngsters, and categorize them based on surface, I would say Thiem is good on Clay, Nick is good on grass (this year he had injury issues) and Zverev is most suited for hard courts. That is why there is mild optimism about Zverev (not in an absolute sense, but as a best bet among the younger players). Further, he is one of the very few non-big-four players who has actually won an ATP 1000 event. I believe there are only five such players (Stan, Tsonga, Ferrer, Cilic and Sasha). We know that for Ferrer and Tsonga probably ship has sailed. Sasha being the youngest and most recent winner, it is ok to think optimistically about him. But, I only consider him as a dark horse and not even as a pretender, due to his strength issues.

 

[El Dude]

Berdych has also won a Masters.

But yeah, exactly what Game said. I'm not as much "optimistic" as it is that Zverev is on the cusp. Further, the Rome title was a complete surprise--I predicted he'd win a Masters this year, but guessed it would be one of the second half HCs. If he can surprise and win on clay, he can also surprise and win the USO. I don't think it will happen yet, but he's getting really close and by this time next year he'll be a serious Slam contender at every Slam except probably RG.


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[Front242]

I think Zverev still isn't fit enough to win 7 best of 5 matches and his AO match against Nadal proved that. Best of 3 is still where he's more dangerous imo till he gets fitter and more consistent. I could see him maybe winning the Paris masters as many of the top guys are burnt out by then and even if he's feeling a bit gassed himself by year end, it's only best of 3. It's often been a tournament with a surprise winner too. If Ferrer can win it, Zverev surely can.

 

[El Dude]

I agree, Front, but he could also win five or six of those matches in straight sets and only have to go long once or twice.

All I'm saying is that it could happen, that we have to take him seriously now. His AO against Rafa and Rome title have made it so.


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[Moxie]

I feel like we're in an era of unpredictable predictableness. Meaning, chances are we see one of Fedal win it, but I also wouldn't be surprised if neither does and we see Cilic, Stan, or even Sascha win it. Or someone we're not expecting.

Anyhow, I'd like to see how Canada and Cincy go before making predictions. In particular, I want to see how Rafa looks - if he can keep his form up, or if he starts struggling. I also want to see if Roger maintains his high level, as there might be a bit of a letdown after accomplishing his main goal of 2017 (and the rest of his career, perhaps). Even if Roger skips Canada and goes out early in Cincy, I think he regains focus for the USO, but won't be the big favorite he was at Wimbledon.

To me the dark horses are Cilic and Stan, both of whom have something to prove: Stan that he's not slipping, and Cilic that he really can hang with the Big Four like he says he can.

I'd also add in Sascha Zverev, who I think will win one of the next six Slams before his 22nd birthday in April of 2019. Probably not yet, but I wouldn't be surprised. I see him reaching Slam-winning readiness more like in 2018 Wimby/USO.

I don't think Novak will play, and if Andy does I really doubt he wins it, but you can't count him out.

So for me the order, right now, would be:

1. Roger
2. Rafa
3. Cilic
4. Wawrinka
5. Murray
6. Zverev
7. Everyone else

(Assuming Novak doesn't play; if he does, who knows - maybe between Stan and Andy)

It's a bit like double-Dutch to jump in late on this thread, but I'll pick this post, if you don't mind, Dude. I'm going to be a bit surprised if either Murray or Djokovic plays, tbh. Andy has gone to some Swiss doctor, indicating that his issue is serious. And if Djokovic doesn't take a serious time-out, then I don't fancy his chances. It's worth remembering that Stan is the defending champion, but I get why he's a bit of a dark horse. Because, frankly, he always is. Same with Cilic. I hate to give him a hard time for the blistered feet and the poor Wimbledon final, but it's hard to take him seriously, yet again.

I agree that we have to see how the next 2 Masters play out. I'd like to see Sasha heavy in the mix, and Thiem and Kyrgios. I would argue this is where these guys should be pushing hard, and maybe Dimitrov, too, (last gasp?) to do well in Montreal and Cincinnati. If they really think they can feature at the USO, they'd better make a heavy run at the tune-ups. That will be interesting to me.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are five predictions for US Open from ESPN . I do believe in 1,2 and 5 and not so much in others.

 

[Busted]

The fact that I'm hoping Cilic is on the other side of the draw from Roger tells me I respect him. My list would be...

1, Roger
2, Cilic
3, Rafa
4, Wawrinka
5, Murray & Thiem
6, Zverev & Dimitrov

Of course I'm assuming Novak doesn't play. Otherwise I would put him alongside Murray & Thiem

I concur - hope Cilic is on the other side of the draw because if he's got any pride at all he'll have chip on his shoulder and want to prove to himself that he belonged in that Wimbledon final and could have won it.

I don't see Murray and Djokovic skipping the US Open unless they've had surgery. If they play either Canada or Cinci - they'll be in the main draw.

As far as Nadal goes - he'll just have to hope the courts are slow and there are no big servers in quarter. Otherwise he'll be out in the 4R or QF.

Stan's another guy who COULD be dangerous because he's got 2,000 points to defend. He also has 360 points from Canada and 90 from Cinci. So he has to play well all 3 tournments. If he doesn't at least make the US Open finals and other players below him do well then he could fall as low as #8.

Obviously a lot depends on the draw...but I don't think we'll be getting a Fedal final - mainly because I don't expect Nadal - or Federer - to be in the final. Roger's "dream run" is going to have to end sometime and, as has been pointed out, the US Open is the one Slam that other guys have managed to upset the Big 4 in. So the US Open may be Roger's Waterloo. I hope not - but let's get real, it's generally the hottest and most energy draining for the Slams - and he will be 36 when it starts. He's only been in the final 1 time since 2009 - and he lost that to Djokovic not just because Djokovic played well but because he played pretty crappy and blew a ton of break points.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

After the first week of warm-up tourneys (hard to call them so considering none of them were on hard courts), here are the latest odds for winning USO. I will update this after each week and then finally after the draw comes out. Anybody with 1% or more chance is listed below.

1. Federer 3
2. Rafa 9/2
3. Novak 11/2
4. Andy 6
5. Stan 14
6. Cilic 20
7. JMDP / Kyrgios 25
9. Raonic / Thiem 28
11. Sasha 30
12. Samurai 33
13. Grigor 40
14. Tsonga 80
15. Berdych 100

Not much movement. Tsonga's and Bird's odds have improved considerably. Andy's has decreased a bit.

 

[Front242]

I'd be more surprised to see Novak play here than Andy to be honest. Good chance he'll be absent.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I'd be more surprised to see Novak play here than Andy to be honest. Good chance he'll be absent.

Andy today announced that he will play in Beijing 500. So he must be confident about hip situation now.

 

[isabelle]

Nole's out

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

A US Open without Djokovic.

He played the final every year from 2010 to 2016 except 2014. It will be different to watch US Open without him.

 

[mrzz]

Asterisks! We will need them!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

A US Open without Djokovic.

He played the final every year from 2010 to 2016 except 2014. It will be different to watch US Open without him.

He reached SF or better for 10 years in a row from 07 to 16. It will indeed be very different.

 

[Front242]

Good going alright considering he had a 15 year old body 10 years ago.

 

[Federberg]

He reached SF or better for 10 years in a row from 07 to 16. It will indeed be very different.

He's the Lendl of this era for sure!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

He's the Lendl of this era for sure!

Lendl actually won it once more than Novak.

Seriously speaking, it is actually surprising that Novak won it only twice (especially considering that Roger abdicated the crown as early as 2009).

 

[Front242]

Lendl actually won it once more than Novak.

Seriously speaking, it is actually surprising that Novak won it only twice (especially considering that Roger abdicated the crown as early as 2009).

Yeah, Novak has had some bad losses there.

 

[Federberg]

Lendl actually won it once more than Novak.

Seriously speaking, it is actually surprising that Novak won it only twice (especially considering that Roger abdicated the crown as early as 2009).

Yup! It always amuses me when people talk about Novak being a better hard court player than Roger. Got to get them W's first..