Early Roland Garros thread

[kskate2]

He's a great blues man. Mediocre clay player.

And his main club "Legends" is here in the Chi. I've been a couple of times and saw him live.

 

[Moxie]

And his main club "Legends" is here in the Chi. I've been a couple of times and saw him live.

I went there when I was in Chicago...great club!

 

[mrzz]

And his main club "Legends" is here in the Chi. I've been a couple of times and saw him live.

Envy envy envy envy envy envy envy envy envy envy envy envy..... AAARRRGGHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

 

[Horsa]

Envy envy envy envy envy envy envy envy envy envy envy envy..... AAARRRGGHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

Since you started this thread with lots of guys, you're envious & music has been mentioned, I feel this song is very apt as you could say you're this at the moment. Lol.

 

[herios]

Quickly checked the odds for RG, I am not sure if the bookies changed their numbers today, but based on yesterday, some changes occurred.
Sasha dropped from #4 to #6, Roger and Stefanos passed him.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Despite losing three tourneys, Ralph is still the favorite as per bookies with odds of 13/8 (which works out to about 38% chance). However, it at least came down from a week ago (when it was at 46%).
Next in line are Novak, Thiem and Fed. Next update on full odds will be 24 hours (to give market time to digest) after the finals of Madrid is over.

 

[El Dude]

I've got to favor Novak at this point. Not by much, but he seems to have found a solid level and his B game beats anything less than Rafa at his very best.

 

[Mastoor]

Nadal will be always favourite at RG even though he doesn't seem himself ever since that AO final. However, I expect Nadal's return in Rome. Not that I am hoping to it.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

There seems to be a good chance that Ralph and Nole will head to RG, without facing each other on clay this year. Considering Nole has leased space in Ralph's head, if they don't meet each other before RG, it will be advantage Nole (doubly so, as it would also mean Rafa is headed to RG without winning even one warm-up).

 

[Moxie]

There seems to be a good chance that Ralph and Nole will head to RG, without facing each other on clay this year. Considering Nole has leased space in Ralph's head, if they don't meet each other before RG, it will be advantage Nole (doubly so, as it would also mean Rafa is headed to RG without winning even one warm-up).

Just because they don't meet before RG doesn't mean Rafa won't have won Rome. How u figure?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Just because they don't meet before RG doesn't mean Rafa won't have won Rome. How u figure?

Have you seen Novak's half of the draw? It looks decimated.

 

[Moxie]

Have you seen Novak's half of the draw? It looks decimated.

I don't think a draw can be "decimated" until it's played. I think you mean "easy." But therefore then your assumption is that Nadal won't make it to the final. And so they won't meet?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I don't think a draw can be "decimated" until it's played. I think you mean "easy." But therefore then your assumption is that Nadal won't make it to the final. And so they won't meet?

My assumption is that Novak is guaranteed to make the finals. In view of this assumption, Novak and Rafa not meeting before RG would imply Rafa would have lost before reaching the final.

 

[Moxie]

My assumption is that Novak is guaranteed to make the finals. In view of this assumption, Novak and Rafa not meeting before RG would imply Rafa would have lost before reaching the final.

Yes, I see that was your assumption, but not guaranteed, so yes, they could meet before RG. Though I know you always live in hope that Rafa will lose.

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

Despite his SF loss against Djokovic, I have Thiem as the co-favorite with Nadal(reputation based)
He looked much better off the ground against Djokovic and the madrid conditions(coupled with a tough draw) worked against him since Djokovic was able to serve much better at Madrid than he'll manage at Paris.

 

[isabelle]

Nole"ll probably win RG but sport's unpredictable so....wait and see

 

[herios]

I was going to reply on @herios post on the Munich thread about seeding at RG -- he called attention to the fact that Berretini is almost making the cut, and checking the live rankings one can guess that end of the list might change considerably in two weeks -- given that I would need to change my list of dangerous low seeds and dangerous floaters.

So here is the part of the list I guess is subject to changes:


27 Alex de Minaur 1439
28 Gilles Simon 1385
29 Félix Auger-Aliassime 1319
30 Lucas Pouille 1315
31 Laslo Djere 1246
32 Stan Wawrinka 1230
33 Nick Kyrgios 1215
#####################
34 Matteo Berrettini 1215
35 Márton Fucsovics 1205
36 Frances Tiafoe 1185
37 Fernando Verdasco 1155
38 Richard Gasquet 1105
39 Cristian Garin 1083


I would say that the cut is on #33, rather than on #32 -- counting on one withdraw.

Bolded are the ones which I believe will change position (from up down or the other way around):

From the top, de Minaur is a good player but is coming back from injury. Pouille has a potentially vrey big game but is struggling heavily lately. I think he will roughly maintain his points but might be overtaken by others. Kyrgios hardly scores points on clay, maybe he can advance a few rounds in Madrid given the altitude.

From the bottom, Berrettini as Herios noted. Fucsovics I saw playing, he is kind of like Pouille, but stringing better results lately. And Garin, of course, he is further away but seems on a path much higher up than that.

I haven't cheked points to defend though, which might be the deciding factor here.

a player who is in a good form and looked to be on track to push into the top 32, will not be seeded in the end.
Garin, who I am taking about, skipped both masters.
Madrid made dense, because he was playing the final in Munich he won on Sunday, when Madrid started already and he has not been high enough to get into the main draw 6 weeks before.
But why he did not enter Rome qualifying or play a Challenger this week is a mystery to me.
On top of it he is losing some points this week, so he will be one of those dangerous floaters comes RG.

 

[MartyB]

a player who is in a good form and looked to be on track to push into the top 32, will not be seeded in the end.
Garin, who I am taking about, skipped both masters.
Madrid made dense, because he was playing the final in Munich he won on Sunday, when Madrid started already and he has not been high enough to get into the main draw 6 weeks before.
But why he did not enter Rome qualifying ora play Challenger this week is a mystery to me.
On top of it he is losing some points this week, so he will be one of those dangerous floaters comes RG.

I agree. I can only imagine Garin needed to regroup or had a nagging injury. He will not be seeded but an exceedingly dangerous player to be a floater.

 

[Fiero425]

Quickly checked the odds for RG, I am not sure if the bookies changed their numbers today, but based on yesterday, some changes occurred.
Sasha dropped from #4 to #6, Roger and Stefanos passed him.

And will drop even further after losing his 1st match to some kid I never heard of; Berrettini! Who? In 'straights' as well! SORRY outing!

 

[herios]

And will drop even further after losing his 1st match to some kid I never heard of; Berrettini! Who? In 'straights' as well! SORRY outing!

Berrettini won a clay event this weekend, Sasha did not.
That is it.