Early Grass Talk - 2019

[Bonaca]

He's already showed signs of slowdown in the clay season. The ship's trajectory is downwards.

No it’s the other way. He was down after AO 19 and After IW and Miami on the way up to his A game, unfortunately not reaching it at the french.
If he shows his former level on grass and HC against bull, not to mention if he could raise his level, he will beat the bull.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I would like to see them meet again in semis or final. I honestly hoped to see a Novak - Nadal final in Paris. It still sucks badly this semi against the Austrian, so unnecessary.
But against Nadal I always have a good feeling when Novak is at least near his best. Last year in Wimbledon he wasn’t near his best and won.
Let’s see what will happen this year. May the better player win

So, you want Novak to be given free pass to the finals?

 

[Bonaca]

So, you want Novak to be given free pass to the finals?

No no you didn’t get me right

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Halle qualifying draw is out.

Interesting names there J.Sousa, A. Rublev, A. Seppi and M.Zverev, not to mention Gulbis and Stakhovsky who will face each other in first round.

The draw ceremony for MD is scheduled for Saturday 2 p.m. local time.

 

[don_fabio]

I also don't think that Novak is trading downwards even he lost semi in RG. He said couple of times how he enjoys to play in Wimbledon, because after a (usual) loss in RG he kind of likes to come back and compete on another major. With Wimbledon scheduled so quick after RG, it worked well for him on a few occasions in the past so I think he is looking again to bounce back like before and lift another major trophy.

 

[lob]

Lol, year 2011-2016 and 2018. The one year Rafa may have won is 2017 because Novak was that bad that year. Djokovic clearly a much better grass court player than Nadal, H2H and overall. I don't think he got lucky last year, he was never trailing in that match. He played like ass and still beat Nadal.

To me, Nadal had three championship points at 7-7 in the fifth set of the SF. He didn't lose those points. Djokovic won them. Two first serves, after a double fault. The third point, Nadal constructed the point very well but ND pulled off a very difficult pass. ND's performance was gutsy as hell.

 

[lob]

If Fed wins Halle, it will be a La Decima for him there.

But, Fed really needs a La Decima in Wimbledon. Currently Fed solely possess the record for Men in Wimbledon. But, he needs one more to tie Martina who has nine and the La Decima would give him sole possession of the record.

Why does passing Martina matter? Sure Martina was a great player but she played the WTA tour. ATP and WTA are different sports. Becoming the gentleman's champion is an extremely difficult proposition. Players like Lendl, Rafter, Roddick, Henman spent their entire careers trying to win it and couldn't.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Why does passing Martina matter? Sure Martina was a great player but she played the WTA tour. ATP and WTA are different sports. Becoming the gentleman's champion is an extremely difficult proposition. Players like Lendl, Rafter, Roddick, Henman spent their entire careers trying to win it and couldn't.

Of course, it does not and we all know that.

But, when you are trying for the next one, it helps to motivate you if you attach some special meaning to it (no matter how meaningless the meaning may be). The motivation for #9 would be to tie with Martina and motivation for #10 would be to grab sole possession of that record.

The real motivation would of course be to get further ahead of Nadalovic in the GS title race.

 

[Carol]

I would like to see them meet again in semis or final. I honestly hoped to see a Novak - Nadal final in Paris. It still sucks badly this semi against the Austrian, so unnecessary.
But against Nadal I always have a good feeling when Novak is at least near his best. Last year in Wimbledon he wasn’t near his best and won.
Let’s see what will happen this year. May the better player win

And do you think Nadal was near his best after to win most of the clay tournaments and having the grass season so close? when he was 22 and 24 was easier to get more fresh to Wimbledon and to win but at the present is harder like last year even that he played well you could tell he was tired. And that's why I'm glad this year he has won only two tournaments, it could help him to play even better

 

[Carol]

Lol, year 2011-2016 and 2018. The one year Rafa may have won is 2017 because Novak was that bad that year. Djokovic clearly a much better grass court player than Nadal, H2H and overall. I don't think he got lucky last year, he was never trailing in that match. He played like ass and still beat Nadal.

Novak last year played well in Wimbledon and not like ass, but the problem was that Nadal threw the match away playing awful (like ass) the last game, otherwise he could have won perfectly well. And talking about 2017 then according to what you say maybe Federer won the AO and Wimbledon because Novak was that bad that year

 

[Bonaca]

And do you think Nadal was near his best after to win most of the clay tournaments and having the grass season so close? when he was 22 and 24 was easier to get more fresh to Wimbledon and to win but at the present is harder like last year even that he played well you could tell he was tired. And that's why I'm glad this year he has won only two tournaments, it could help him to play even better

He was in great shape and full confidence because of his successes earlier in the clay season. He certainly had thought he would best Novak because of his results that year, and was facing a real opponent at wimbledon. He was surely near his best, in full momentum , otherwise it wouldn’t take 5 sets to Novak to beat him. Novak is the better grass court player, he handles fast courts better because of his superior return game and faster courts make it more difficult for Nadal to play his defense.
That is only my opinion, maybe a few would agree with me.

 

[Bonaca]

Novak last year played well in Wimbledon and not like ass, but the problem was that Nadal threw the match away playing awful (like ass) the last game, otherwise he could have won perfectly well. And talking about 2017 then according to what you say maybe Federer won the AO and Wimbledon because Novak was that bad that year

I forgot to ask you what grass season you mean? It’s only 1 tournament!

 

[Carol]

I forgot to ask you what grass season you mean? It’s only 1 tournament!

I understand there are more than one tournament on grass....
The problem Nadal always has had playing on grass is because his knee and that surface is not the best for it. Everybody knows Novak is good playing on HC and has some more titles on grass (I'm surprised why) but I don't think he does so well on fast surfaces. And remember, the success of the past doesn’t guarantee the future

 

[Bonaca]

I understand there are more than one tournament on grass....
The problem Nadal always has had playing on grass is because his knee and that surface is not the best for it. Everybody knows Novak is good playing on HC and has some more titles on grass (I'm surprised why) but I don't think he does so well on fast surfaces. And remember, the success of the past doesn’t guarantee the future

No there is not guarantee for anything, also not for 13th RG for Nadal. But it’s more likely for him to win RG and for Novak to win Wimbledon when comparing these two GOATs. His return game and defense style (it’s different from nadals) favours him more than Nadal on fast courts. In first line i compared Novak to Nadal looking at fast courts.
The reason why both won more than one Wimbledon title is their superior constant high level tennis, grass isn’t the natural surface of both of them. Novak did a bit better. So it’s more likely he wins than Nadal, if they meet at Wimbledon.
I strongly hope they will face each other at every slam, The more they face each other, the more I’m sure Novak will get him in number of slam Wins and raise the h2h difference?

 

[Carol]

No there is not guarantee for anything, also not for 13th RG for Nadal. But it’s more likely for him to win RG and for Novak to win Wimbledon when comparing these two GOATs. His return game and defense style (it’s different from nadals) favours him more than Nadal on fast courts. In first line i compared Novak to Nadal looking at fast courts.
The reason why both won more than one Wimbledon title is their superior constant high level tennis, grass isn’t the natural surface of both of them. Novak did a bit better. So it’s more likely he wins than Nadal, if they meet at Wimbledon.
I strongly hope they will face each other at every slam, The more they face each other, the more I’m sure Novak will get him in number of slam Wins and raise the h2h difference?

Well, I strongly hope they will face each other at every GS too, I was weating in RG but it couldn’t happen but I’d love they would play each other in W or USO . I think Novak is not in the Nadal’s head anymore

 

[Bonaca]

Well, I strongly hope they will face each other at every GS too, I was weating in RG but it couldn’t happen but I’d love they would play each other in W or USO . I think Novak is not in the Nadal’s head anymore

It was often discussed , Novak is in nadal‘s head and these things, I think it’s Novak’s game level and style that is so difficult for Nadal to handle. Toni Nadal gave an interesting interview, he told the press it’s no secret that Nadal and his team were pleased and happy to face thiem in the final and not Novak! Guess why? He really said they were happy Novak lost the SF, they immediately knew he will win the 12th title. Thiem isn’t good enough. So that we’re my thoughts too, I wrote this right after the SF.
The only tight and interesting final in RG would be Novak against Nadal.

 

[Carol]

It was often discussed , Novak is in nadal‘s head and these things, I think it’s Novak’s game level and style that is so difficult for Nadal to handle. Toni Nadal gave an interesting interview, he told the press it’s no secret that Nadal and his team were pleased and happy to face thiem in the final and not Novak! Guess why? He really said they were happy Novak lost the SF, they immediately knew he will win the 12th title. Thiem isn’t good enough. So that we’re my thoughts too, I wrote this right after the SF.
The only tight and interesting final in RG would be Novak against Nadal.

Thiem isn't good enough but he beat Novak in this GS, and after Roma I was sure that Nadal would have beaten Novak in a final like he did before

 

[Bonaca]

Thiem isn't good enough but he beat Novak in this GS, and after Roma I was sure that Nadal would have beaten Novak in a final like he did before

He isn’t good enough to beat Nadal in RG, he is good enough to beat Novak not at his best (thiem nearly lost that match) or do you think he played the best version of Djokovic?
Novak was better in RG than in Roma, and despite his low level in Roma he took a set from Nadal.
All this indicates, what Toni Nadal officially told the press, he and his team could be very happy not to play against Novak.
He got an easy win and he saved energy for Wimbledon. Couldn’t went better for Nadal.

 

[El Dude]

[GALLERY=media, 71]Grass Elo Big Four by El Dude posted Jun 16, 2019 at 10:00 AM[/GALLERY]

According to Elo, Rafa has always been on a much lower level on grass, except when Andy and Novak were still very young.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Thanks Michael. It is Open Era Rankings (not opener). They do maintain live Wimbledon seedings based on the formula.

At the moment, here are the top 8 seeds.

1. Novak
2. Rafa
3. Roger
4. Anderson
5. Thiem
6. Sasha
7. Nishikori
8. Perseus

After the first week of grass tournaments, there is absolutely no change in the collection and the ordering of the top 8 seeds.
As #9 Isner's points are quite low compared to that of Perseus, I don't expect any changes in the collection after this week's
tourneys in Halle and Queens either. However, there could be some change in the ordering as specified below.

(1)(2,3)(4,5,6,7,8)

What the above notation means is that Novak is guaranteed of #1 seed no matter what happens. #2 and #3 could
potentially interchange at the end of this week. In order for that to happen Roger needs to win Halle. Finally, #5 through #8
can be shuffled in an arbitrary manner based on how these guys perform this week.

However, whether you are #5 or #8, it is all the same as far as draw advantage is concerned. So, the only interesting
question is who will grab the vacant #4 spot at the end of this week. Since Thiem and Nishikori are not even playing this
week, it will most probably be not them. The #4 seed will go to either Anderson or Sasha or Perseus depending on
their performance in Halle and Queens.

Finally note that the tourney's of the week after Halle/Queens will not affect the seedings at all.