Early Grass Talk - 2019

[isabelle]

Nadal to skip Wimbledon warm-ups
Rafael Nadal says he will not play in any warm-up tournaments before Wimbledon.

Nadal hasn't entered a grass-court tournament ahead of Wimbledon in any season since 2015. That year, he appeared in two grass events between Roland Garros and the All England Club -- and then lost in the second round at Wimbledon.

"Why do I need to change that? ... What gives me [a] better chance is to be healthy than playing a lot of matches," Nadal said Sunday after winning his 12th French Open title.

Nadal's two Wimbledon titles came in 2008 and 2010. He is also a three-time runner-up at the grass-court Grand Slam tournament, but he hasn't reached the final since 2011.

Wimbledon starts July 1.

-- The Associated Press

Nole to skip warm-ups too

 

[Bonaca]

Nole to skip warm-ups too

They obviously focus their energy on the slams.

 

[Horsa]

Kind of sad that there will be no Andy Murray at Queens this year.

I agree.

 

[Horsa]

Here are the early odds for winning Wimbledon:

1. Novak 13/8 (38.10%)
2. Roger 4 (20%)
3. Ralph 13/2 (13.33%)

4. Sasha 16 (5.88%)
5. JMDP 22 (4.35%)
6. Perseus 25 (3.85%)
7. Badboy 28 (3.45%)
8. Milos / Cilic 30 (3.23%)
10. Murray 33 (2.95%)
11. Kandy 40 (2.44%)

12. Thiem 50 (1.96%)
13. Medvedev 63 (1.56%)
14. Stan / Shapo / Isner / KK 66 (1.52%)
18. Baby / Samurai 80 (1.23%)
20. Edmund / Goffin 100 (1%)

Here are my observations:

a. Sorry Feddies, sadly, we have reached a point where Roger is not even considered a favorite for Wimbledon.
b. There are three contenders (no need to name them), 8 pretenders and 10 honorable mentions.
c. I personally would remove both Murray and Edmund off the list. They are there to empty the
wallets of some native patriotic Britishers.
d. They are right on money in recognizing that Thiem and Stan are not even pretenders on grass.

Next update after the tourneys in Stuttgart and Netherlands are completed.

p.s. @DarthFed: Note that the peasant cannot be written off even here.

I'm a patriotic Brit but I know that we don't stand much chance & can only hope. We win every now & then though & when we do it's great because we don't win very often. I don't bet even on horses. It's a fools game unless you win of course.

 

[Jelenafan]

3 weeks simply isn’t enough time. 5 weeks break between FO clay and Wimbledon Grass allows you to enter a grasscourt tournament without risking overplaying/fatigue being a factor.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Sorry folks, I goofed off in my calculations. I forgot to take into account that Fed's 250 points from Stuttgart and 300 point from Halle will come off of his rankings. The OP said Rafa's lead is 270.

But, really Rafa's lead is 270+250+300 = 820.

But, as this year's Halle will be double counted, Fed needs to get 410 or more in Halle.

The only way to do that is for Fed to win Halle title. So the bottom line is the bottom line (pun intended).

If Fed wins Halle, he gets #2 seeding in Wimbledon and anything less, he is #3 seed.

This is why of all the Grand Slams I loathe this one ..

 

[shawnbm]

Federer should play Halle—he has had success there and I think he needs to get comfy on his favorite surface. I personally think Nadal should play one of them too. Novak should be fine.

 

[herios]

Nole won Wimbledon without any warm up tourneys before.
He had some practice though, because he went to play a few matches at an exhibition. That formula works for him. I hope he sticks with it.

 

[isabelle]

Federer should play Halle—he has had success there and I think he needs to get comfy on his favorite surface. I personally think Nadal should play one of them too. Novak should be fine.

he has a lot of tricky opponents in Halle 2019

 

[shawnbm]

he has a lot of tricky opponents in Halle 2019

I think it will be better for him

 

[the AntiPusher]

Federer should play Halle—he has had success there and I think he needs to get comfy on his favorite surface. I personally think Nadal should play one of them too. Novak should be fine.

Rafa needs to rest his knees..He has a grass court at his training academy. Carlos and also Toni will bring in some great players to practice with Rafa..No stress for travel, practice court time and lodging for the next 3weeks will do a ton for Rafa's health.

 

[DarthFed]

Federer should play Halle—he has had success there and I think he needs to get comfy on his favorite surface. I personally think Nadal should play one of them too. Novak should be fine.

Not at all, he needs rest and a proper attitude adjustment. Sentimentality is damn near as bad for an athlete as being content. Roger has won Wimbledon without a warmup before. And his seed doesn't matter there, it may be better to face Nole in a semi vs final for him if that's the worry.

 

[shawnbm]

Well, I think he should be able to get plenty of rest beforehand. He has more often than not played Halle and it feeds him a good vibe. The points are shorter and he can work his serve and volley game a bit. But, he knows best and if he chooses not to play there I have no problems with it, obviously.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

There is no speculation here. Fed has entered Halle long ago and has confirmed that he will play there, even after losing the SF at RG.

 

[Jelenafan]

Not at all, he needs rest and a proper attitude adjustment. Sentimentality is damn near as bad for an athlete as being content. Roger has won Wimbledon without a warmup before. And his seed doesn't matter there, it may be better to face Nole in a semi vs final for him if that's the worry.

Darth, You think the Fedster will pull out of Halle?

 

[DarthFed]

Darth, You think the Fedster will pull out of Halle?

Nah, as GSM said he is definitely playing. I just think it's a mistake. He will probably win or at least make the finals and that is 16 matches in less than 7 weeks before Wimbledon including 11 on clay with 6 best of 5. People act like he isn't about to be 38 years old. Playing clay was stupid, he got carried away in sentimental BS when everyone knew he couldn't compete there.

 

[lob]

Nah, as GSM said he is definitely playing. I just think it's a mistake. He will probably win or at least make the finals and that is 16 matches in less than 7 weeks before Wimbledon including 11 on clay with 6 best of 5. People act like he isn't about to be 38 years old. Playing clay was stupid, he got carried away in sentimental BS when everyone knew he couldn't compete there.

You are right. But he probably wants to transition to grass before the big W. No matter what, he needs to get lucky to be the champion. It's mostly down to luck.

 

[DarthFed]

You are right. But he probably wants to transition to grass before the big W. No matter what, he needs to get lucky to be the champion. It's mostly down to luck.

He doesn't need luck, just needs to play decent in the big moments. Take it as life and death for a change as more than ever is on the line.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here is a paragraph from an article by Steve Flink of tennis.com in a preview of Wimby' 2019.

"There are not that many players in the field who resemble Anderson or Isner, a pair of stupendous servers with the potential to explosively upend the favorites on given afternoons. They are few and far between, and the surface these days is not as advantageous to the big servers as it once was. The grass at Wimbledon is similar to a hard court in some ways, especially during the second week."

So true. There are very few big servers out there capable of causing damage and with a good draw the reemergent Peasant might make it into the second week when it is no longer played on grass. After all, the Peasant is a five time finalist and two time Champion here.
More worrisomely, as Fink says "he was beaten 15-13 in the fifth set by Gilles Muller in the 2017 round of 16, and ousted 10-8 in the fifth by Djokovic in the semifinals a year ago. Nadal believed correctly that he was only an eyelash away from the quarters two years ago, and a whisker shy of the final in 2018."

So, let us try to list a few players (ohter than Fed and Nole) who could potentially take out Ralph.

1. Perseus
2. Isner
3. Anderson (if only he comes forward after his serve)
4. Milos (is he healthy)
5. JMDP
6. Cilic
7. Kyrgios
8. Brown (if only he makes it to MD)
9. Opelka

I think Muller has retired. That is just about 8 players. If they fall randomly, only two will fall in Ralph's quarter.
Of those two, one will exit before meeting Ralph. So, all the burden will fall on that one player.

 

[Moxie]

Note that Flink says that the court can play like a HC, not a clay court, in the second week. That's something Feddies push heavy on. I know you're always looking for a Nadal loss, but are you really that worried about him? If Federer is so great on grass, and Nadal so crap on it, (per Darth,) I'm surprised that you bother with him, at all. Are you not more worried about Djokovic?