Early Grass Talk - 2019

[GameSetAndMath]

After the market had time to digest the results of the warm-up tourneys of the first week, let us take another look at the odds.

1. Novak 13/8 (38.10%)
2. Roger 19/5 (20.83%)
3. Ralph 6 (14.28%)

4. Sasha 18 (5.26%)
5. Perseus 20 (4.76%)
6. JMDP 25 (3.85%)
7. Cilic / Milos 33 (2.94%)
9. Bad boy / Thiem 40 (2.44%)
11. Kandy 50 (1.96%)

12. Medvedev 63 (1.56%)
13. Khachanov / Grigor / Stan / Murray / Opelka 100 (1%)

Here are the changes:

As before we have three contenders. Novak's odds remain exactly the same, but both Roger's and Rafa's odds have improved.

Sasha's odds have worsened a bit after his early ouster, but he manages to retain his position as the leader of pretenders. Perseus leap frogs over JMDP. Cilic and Milos leap frog bad boy who also had an early exit in the warm-up. Thiem enters the pretenders group from the honorable mention group, perhaps because of his decision to skip Halle. Moreover, Thiem gets ahead of Kandy.

Shapo, Isner, Goffin, Samurai and Edmund exit from the list of players with puncher's chance. Opelka enters the list, thanks to his big serve. The list has been shortened to 17 players from 21 players before. Andy's odds took a tumble from 33 to 100, probably because of his decision not to even play singles at Queens (but he should not even be on the list considering he may not even play in Wimbledon).

Next update shall be after Halle / Queens tourneys are done and dusted.

 

[Front242]

The bookies are nuts. Personally, I'd have Cilic at number 4 instead of Zverev and I'd even put Mischa Zverev higher than his brat bro based on his s&v game and the surface.

 

[don_fabio]

Personally, I'd have Cilic at number 4 instead of Zverev

Agree on this. Perhaps people/bookies don't give too much chances to Marin after that debacle last year against Pella.

 

[herios]

Agree on this. Perhaps people/bookies don't give too much chances to Marin after that debacle last year against Pella.

The point is why they think Zverev would do better than many others?
Based on what exactly. This is not clay where he won some important events before.

 

[Front242]

Agree on this. Perhaps people/bookies don't give too much chances to Marin after that debacle last year against Pella.

Yup it's 3 x 1/4 finals and 1 final for Cilic versus 2 third round and 1 fourth round for Zverev. Absolutely clueless by the bookies.

 

[Bonaca]

You didn't watch the match. In this case, Nadal played a terrible service game late in the 2nd, and then Djokovic held to take the set. He really kind of did "give" Novak that set. That's not even really a fannish point...it was pretty clear. I should think it would make you happy. Novak was pretty poor most of that day, though he was better in the 2nd.

I did watch the whole match, always do when they meet.
Clearly Nadal was the better player that day in the first and third set, and Novak in the second. How can a professional player „gave“ a set to the other? One bad service game in the second was enough to lose, and he did.
Novak was far from winning the match. That is also truth unfortunately.

 

[Moxie]

I did watch the whole match, always do when they meet.
Clearly Nadal was the better player that day in the first and third set, and Novak in the second. How can a professional player „gave“ a set to the other? One bad service game in the second was enough to lose, and he did.
Novak was far from winning the match. That is also truth unfortunately.

It's a bit silly semantics but I thought Front was jumping hard on Carol for saying it, and tbh, Rafa played a terrible service game late in the 2nd, which was a bit of a "gift". I think Novak only played well in the 2nd set, but wasn't necessarily the better player in it...they were both playing well in the 2nd, and the set could easily have gone to a TB, imo, until Nadal really dropped that game. Then all Novak had to do was serve it out, which he did. It's not a big deal and I don't want to argue over it or fall on my sword for it. As I said, I just thought Front was being over-aggressive with Carol over the word.

 

[monfed]

Hope the draw gets denadalised in the first week and faker is also kicked out by Querrey so that we can sit back and enjoy the tournament.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The bookies are nuts. Personally, I'd have Cilic at number 4 instead of Zverev and I'd even put Mischa Zverev higher than his brat bro based on his s&v game and the surface.

I agree with Cilic being #4. However, the serve and volley game of Mischa does not seem to produce results. He played in the quals of Halle and could not even qualify.

 

[herios]

I agree with Cilic being #4. However, the serve and volley game of Mischa does not seem to produce results. He played in the quals of Halle and could not even qualify.

@Front242 thinks too highly of Misha Zverev. The German most likely will have to qualify to Wimbledon as well, as he is not in the top 100 anymore.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

AELTC announced four of the eight wild cards. Marcos Baghdatis, Jay Clarke, Paul Jubb and James Ward received them. Paul Jubb is NCAA Champion, but he is from GBR. Normally NCAA champions get automatic wild card into USO. But, he won't get as he is not American. Hence, AELTC gave him one into Wimby. Except for Marcos, all of them are from GBR.

Wimbledon does not engage in reciprocal wildcards business (as they don't have good players) and so they will award all the four remaining wildcards themselves. We all know that they will save one of the WCs until the last minute hoping the one who cleared the ghost of Fred Perry might change his mind and decide to play in singles.

Hewitt and Thompson got a wild card into doubles.

Nicolas Mahut got a WC into the quals.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are some players who need to go through the quals to get in.

1. Mischa Zverev
2. Dustin Brown
3. Sergiy Stakhovsky
4. Lukas Rosol
5. Thanasi Kokkinakis
6. Deliciano Lopez

 

[Moxie]

Hope the draw gets denadalised in the first week and faker is also kicked out by Querrey so that we can sit back and enjoy the tournament.

As usual partisan comment from you, but I have to say this one was funny.

 

[isabelle]

The bookies are nuts. Personally, I'd have Cilic at number 4 instead of Zverev and I'd even put Mischa Zverev higher than his brat bro based on his s&v game and the surface.

not sure Cilic's good contender, he's played poorly recently, especially on grass

 

[tented]

The point is why they think Zverev would do better than many others?
Based on what exactly. This is not clay where he won some important events before.

Which is precisely why I don’t take these odds seriously. They don’t know tennis. This is just a math problem set up for them to make money.

 

[Front242]

@Front242 thinks too highly of Misha Zverev. The German most likely will have to qualify to Wimbledon as well, as he is not in the top 100 anymore.

Nah it's more that I think very little of his brat of a younger brother. I realize Mischa hasn't had a good win in ages though that one over Murray was an absolute joy to behold.

 

[Front242]

Here are some players who need to go through the quals to get in.

1. Mischa Zverev
2. Dustin Brown
3. Sergiy Stakhovsky
4. Lukas Rosol
5. Thanasi Kokkinakis
6. Deliciano Lopez

Be nice if they all got in but that's not possible I guess.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Wimbledon shall debut the roof over the no. 1 court this year.

They say two new rules will be followed.

1. If any match in outer court is not finished, they will move it to center or no. 1 court, if they are available, and try to finish them
by 11 p.m.

2. If a match resumes next day after being played under roof, the weather shall determine whether the roof will be closed or open the next day.

 

[Moxie]

Which is precisely why I don’t take these odds seriously. They don’t know tennis. This is just a math problem set up for them to make money.

One thing I find odd is that some people around here make a lot of fun of Tignor, for example, and his predictions, even though he makes a living as a tennis commentator, and yet they're very interested in what these bookies have to say, who don't know tennis at all. But this time they did get pretty exposed.

 

[isabelle]

sad not to see Dellpo there, when will he be back ?