Did Djokovic really play that poorly?

[DarthFed]

^I think we have to be careful using Rome and Monte Carlo as the template. What is clear is that Chatrier is a different ballgame. There's something about that court on a hot sunny day that works perfectly for Rafa. Novak just didn't seem to be able to cope with the high bouncing ball. Well that slightly untrue actually... he coped just fine when he was focused, but clearly he lost the belief that he could sustain that level over 5 sets. Which I find very odd because both their levels were - for them - quite pedestrian in the 1st set

Rome is generally faster and lower bouncing than RG but Monte Carlo is possibly even more ideal for Rafa's game.

 

[Backhand_DTL]

All about the occasion for Novak. Maybe he wanted it too much but I subscribe to the theory that the recent struggles in the big matches the past couple years has gotten to him. They were saying that he has mentioned in interviews that for whatever reason he has not brought his best game to the biggest matches the past 2 years. That is putting it mildly. Combine that with the growing pressure to win his first RG and that explains why he played so poorly IMO. The man has won plenty of matches in boiling heat down under the past few years, he has beaten Rafa at every other big clay tournament and I don't think best of 5 is that big of a issue with him vs. Nadal as he can normally match him physically.

Once you start a pattern of playing bad on the big stage it is not going to be easy to fix. One big win at Wimbledon or USO could do it but more losses there could be a huge blow.

Yes I agree. He has the stamina, and demonstrably he has the skill set to beat Rafa. I can only think it was mental. This is the essential difference between Novak and Fedal. They can execute at the highest level

OK, he might have the stamina in general, but he certainly didn't yesterday. I mean is that even debatable? It's not to disregard the mental aspect, but physically, he was spent, and it showed. Just because he's beaten Nadal in marathons in the past doesn't mean he was ready to do it yesterday.

And I still think many (not you) are ignoring what hot conditions do for Nadal's game. It's not a matter of Novak beating Nadal in hot conditions in the past. It's about beating him in a best of five in hot conditions on clay.

Has it been confirmed that Nole had some kind of flu or other ailment heading into the final? Asking seriously because I don't know. If not, then you have to question why he was gassed so quickly yesterday and that might have to do with the pressure of the moment.

I'm not going to go back and find the forecast during the matches on clay he has won vs. Nadal but the fact of the matter is we've seen Nole deal with Rafa's forehand and serve a hell of a lot better than yesterday. His ROS yesterday was especially poor. And when you take that away from him and make his backhand look pedestrian (as it was yesterday) then he is not going to be any good. It's rare that both of those shots would fail him so badly at the same time.

He refused to say something about his health in the official press conferences but I read he told some Serbian media he was suffering from food poisoning since before the semi final and in the press conference after the Gulbis-match his voice sounded like he had the flu.

Probably the hot conditions not only helped Nadal's forehand but also his serve by quite a bit. Murray, who also returns his serve well normally, struggled to win points at all against it on Friday. I remember that last year at the French Open Novak's backhand and return looked mediocre by his standards as well, whereas then in Monte Carlo or this year in Rome when it was rather damp/cool and therefore lower bouncing his returns and especially the cross court backhand did a lot of damage. With yesterday's weather it seemed extremely hard for him to be consistently aggresive against Nadal's forehand shots. I think Nole made almost no backhand DTL winner and the cross court backhand was not nearly as hard and accurate in creating short angles as in the second and third sets in Rome.

In general I think Nole at this point in time is the favorite against Nadal on clay in cool, heavy conditions and basically 50/50 in neutral (for example warm but clouded) ones. In hot and sunny weather, which not only helps Nadal's game but also seems tough for him physically, he will still need an exceptional performance or a rather poor one from Nadal to win. And with him being ill for some days he probably had little chances of delivering that kind of performance yesterday.

 

[Kieran]

Nice post, FG, and welcome to the boards!

 

[imjimmy]

Nadal hit 44 winners vs 43 winners from Djokovic. Net of aces [11 from Djoko and 3 from Nadal] - these become 41 winners from Nadal and 32 winners from Djokovic. Therefore it seems Nadal outhit Djokovic from the ground. He also had fewer unforced errors.

This is a good article: http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2014/06/23/Roland-Garros-Brain-Game-Nadal-Djokovic-Final.aspx

Overall, not a stellar match for either guy. But Nadal played better when it mattered most. His off-forehand proved decisive. I had thought that it would be a key shot before the match. Luckily for Rafa, he hit it better than he has most of this year. And at the end of the day, Novak really did not have an answer when Rafa went hard with his forehand to the Serb's.

 

[DarthFed]

All about the occasion for Novak. Maybe he wanted it too much but I subscribe to the theory that the recent struggles in the big matches the past couple years has gotten to him. They were saying that he has mentioned in interviews that for whatever reason he has not brought his best game to the biggest matches the past 2 years. That is putting it mildly. Combine that with the growing pressure to win his first RG and that explains why he played so poorly IMO. The man has won plenty of matches in boiling heat down under the past few years, he has beaten Rafa at every other big clay tournament and I don't think best of 5 is that big of a issue with him vs. Nadal as he can normally match him physically.

Once you start a pattern of playing bad on the big stage it is not going to be easy to fix. One big win at Wimbledon or USO could do it but more losses there could be a huge blow.

Yes I agree. He has the stamina, and demonstrably he has the skill set to beat Rafa. I can only think it was mental. This is the essential difference between Novak and Fedal. They can execute at the highest level

OK, he might have the stamina in general, but he certainly didn't yesterday. I mean is that even debatable? It's not to disregard the mental aspect, but physically, he was spent, and it showed. Just because he's beaten Nadal in marathons in the past doesn't mean he was ready to do it yesterday.

And I still think many (not you) are ignoring what hot conditions do for Nadal's game. It's not a matter of Novak beating Nadal in hot conditions in the past. It's about beating him in a best of five in hot conditions on clay.

Has it been confirmed that Nole had some kind of flu or other ailment heading into the final? Asking seriously because I don't know. If not, then you have to question why he was gassed so quickly yesterday and that might have to do with the pressure of the moment.

I'm not going to go back and find the forecast during the matches on clay he has won vs. Nadal but the fact of the matter is we've seen Nole deal with Rafa's forehand and serve a hell of a lot better than yesterday. His ROS yesterday was especially poor. And when you take that away from him and make his backhand look pedestrian (as it was yesterday) then he is not going to be any good. It's rare that both of those shots would fail him so badly at the same time.

He refused to say something about his health in the official press conferences but I read he told some Serbian media he was suffering from food poisoning since before the semi final and in the press conference after the Gulbis-match his voice sounded like he had the flu.

Probably the hot conditions not only helped Nadal's forehand but also his serve by quite a bit. Murray, who also returns his serve well normally, struggled to win points at all against it on Friday. I remember that last year at the French Open Novak's backhand and return looked mediocre by his standards as well, whereas then in Monte Carlo or this year in Rome when it was rather damp/cool and therefore lower bouncing his returns and especially the cross court backhand did a lot of damage. With yesterday's weather it seemed extremely hard for him to be consistently aggresive against Nadal's forehand shots. I think Nole made nearly no backhand DTL winner and the cross court backhand was not nearly as hard and accurate in creating short angles as in the second and third sets in Rome.

In general I think Nole at this point in time is the favorite against Nadal on clay in cool, heavy conditions and basically 50/50 in neutral (for example warm but clouded) ones. In hot and sunny weather, which not only helps Nadal's game but also seems tough for him physically, he will still need an exceptional performance or a rather poor one from Nadal to win. And with him being ill for some days he probably had little chances of delivering that kind of performance yesterday.

Good post and welcome to the boards! Beating Rafa at RG is still the ultimate task in sports and undoubtedly the extra kick in the bounce on hot days is troubling for even Nole's backhand to take on. But in watching Nole the past few years I think his problem goes beyond that, he isn't bringing his best when it matters. Maybe yesterday had a lot to do with a stomach ailment beforehand but the obvious pattern is still there. His last 4 losses at slams have been extremely poor performances.

 

[calitennis127]

Against a guy he's beaten 22 times, including 6 times over five on clay, for the loss of three sets?

You're stretching the boundaries of sense there, my friend...

Okay Kieran.

If Djokovic wins set 2, what percentage chances are you giving Nadal to come back and win the match? Seriously?

 

[kskate2]

All about the occasion for Novak. Maybe he wanted it too much but I subscribe to the theory that the recent struggles in the big matches the past couple years has gotten to him. They were saying that he has mentioned in interviews that for whatever reason he has not brought his best game to the biggest matches the past 2 years. That is putting it mildly. Combine that with the growing pressure to win his first RG and that explains why he played so poorly IMO. The man has won plenty of matches in boiling heat down under the past few years, he has beaten Rafa at every other big clay tournament and I don't think best of 5 is that big of a issue with him vs. Nadal as he can normally match him physically.

Once you start a pattern of playing bad on the big stage it is not going to be easy to fix. One big win at Wimbledon or USO could do it but more losses there could be a huge blow.

I think this one will really hurt and could have adverse affect. I hope not, but we'll wait to see how it develops at Wimby, USO & AO.

 

[Kieran]

Against a guy he's beaten 22 times, including 6 times over five on clay, for the loss of three sets?

You're stretching the boundaries of sense there, my friend...

Okay Kieran.

If Djokovic wins set 2, what percentage chances are you giving Nadal to come back and win the match? Seriously?

There's a famous tale of the reply the Spartans gave to Philip of Macedonia when he threatened them with what would happen if his army invaded.

The Spartans simply said: "If."

Likewise, there's a big "If" you're using there, since Rafa was never behind in the second set and actually broke to lead 4-2. This is still in reply to your argument that he was on the ropes. Yeah, like he was on the ropes after a set and a couple of games in Oz.

It took a broken back to put him on the ropes that time, brother...

 

[Front242]

Against a guy he's beaten 22 times, including 6 times over five on clay, for the loss of three sets?

You're stretching the boundaries of sense there, my friend...

Okay Kieran.

If Djokovic wins set 2, what percentage chances are you giving Nadal to come back and win the match? Seriously?

Not giving him much chance personally and set 2 is where he ultimately lost the match to Nadal. Stomach bug/food poisoning or not he really screwed up there. Sampras famously barfed all over the court and beat Corretja so it can be done.

 

[Front242]

Against a guy he's beaten 22 times, including 6 times over five on clay, for the loss of three sets?

You're stretching the boundaries of sense there, my friend...

Okay Kieran.

If Djokovic wins set 2, what percentage chances are you giving Nadal to come back and win the match? Seriously?

There's a famous tale of the reply the Spartans gave to Philip of Macedonia when he threatened them with what would happen if his army invaded.

The Spartans simply said: "If."

Likewise, there's a big "If" you're using there, since Rafa was never behind in the second set and actually broke to lead 4-2. This is still in reply to your argument that he was on the ropes. Yeah, like he was on the ropes after a set and a couple of games in Oz.

It took a broken back to put him on the ropes that time, brother...

The back problem occurred in set 2 down 2-0 unless we're to believe a guy playing 100% till then had a "broken back" :nono He was losing badly before then.

 

[DarthFed]

All about the occasion for Novak. Maybe he wanted it too much but I subscribe to the theory that the recent struggles in the big matches the past couple years has gotten to him. They were saying that he has mentioned in interviews that for whatever reason he has not brought his best game to the biggest matches the past 2 years. That is putting it mildly. Combine that with the growing pressure to win his first RG and that explains why he played so poorly IMO. The man has won plenty of matches in boiling heat down under the past few years, he has beaten Rafa at every other big clay tournament and I don't think best of 5 is that big of a issue with him vs. Nadal as he can normally match him physically.

Once you start a pattern of playing bad on the big stage it is not going to be easy to fix. One big win at Wimbledon or USO could do it but more losses there could be a huge blow.

I think this one will really hurt and could have adverse affect. I hope not, but we'll wait to see how it develops at Wimby, USO & AO.

I think they've all hurt and we have already seen the adverse effects. His record in non slams since last year's USO is stupendous, must be close to 50-2 yet in slams he is 10-2 on the year. Of course some will say these "regular season" stats makes him great, but legends are born in Melbourne, Paris, London and New York. Nowhere else...

 

[calitennis127]

Against a guy he's beaten 22 times, including 6 times over five on clay, for the loss of three sets?

You're stretching the boundaries of sense there, my friend...

Okay Kieran.

If Djokovic wins set 2, what percentage chances are you giving Nadal to come back and win the match? Seriously?

There's a famous tale of the reply the Spartans gave to Philip of Macedonia when he threatened them with what would happen if his army invaded.

The Spartans simply said: "If."

Likewise, there's a big "If" you're using there, since Rafa was never behind in the second set and actually broke to lead 4-2. This is still in reply to your argument that he was on the ropes. Yeah, like he was on the ropes after a set and a couple of games in Oz.

It took a broken back to put him on the ropes that time, brother...

Kieran, you are fixated on Nadal being up 4-2 in the second set. But how did it get to that point? Likewise, you are neglecting the fact that the score got to 5-5. Djokovic was not far from taking it.

The point is - Djokovic needed 20 to 30 minutes of really elite ball at either the start of the second set or the end of it after 5-5 to take the set. With such a stretch, he takes set 2 and then has a 90% chance of winning the match from that point onward.

 

[brokenshoelace]

All about the occasion for Novak. Maybe he wanted it too much but I subscribe to the theory that the recent struggles in the big matches the past couple years has gotten to him. They were saying that he has mentioned in interviews that for whatever reason he has not brought his best game to the biggest matches the past 2 years. That is putting it mildly. Combine that with the growing pressure to win his first RG and that explains why he played so poorly IMO. The man has won plenty of matches in boiling heat down under the past few years, he has beaten Rafa at every other big clay tournament and I don't think best of 5 is that big of a issue with him vs. Nadal as he can normally match him physically.

Once you start a pattern of playing bad on the big stage it is not going to be easy to fix. One big win at Wimbledon or USO could do it but more losses there could be a huge blow.

Yes I agree. He has the stamina, and demonstrably he has the skill set to beat Rafa. I can only think it was mental. This is the essential difference between Novak and Fedal. They can execute at the highest level

OK, he might have the stamina in general, but he certainly didn't yesterday. I mean is that even debatable? It's not to disregard the mental aspect, but physically, he was spent, and it showed. Just because he's beaten Nadal in marathons in the past doesn't mean he was ready to do it yesterday.

And I still think many (not you) are ignoring what hot conditions do for Nadal's game. It's not a matter of Novak beating Nadal in hot conditions in the past. It's about beating him in a best of five in hot conditions on clay.

Has it been confirmed that Nole had some kind of flu or other ailment heading into the final? Asking seriously because I don't know. If not, then you have to question why he was gassed so quickly yesterday and that might have to do with the pressure of the moment.

I'm not going to go back and find the forecast during the matches on clay he has won vs. Nadal but the fact of the matter is we've seen Nole deal with Rafa's forehand and serve a hell of a lot better than yesterday. His ROS yesterday was especially poor. And when you take that away from him and make his backhand look pedestrian (as it was yesterday) then he is not going to be any good. It's rare that both of those shots would fail him so badly at the same time.

Keep in mind, Novak did admit to fatigue in the Gulbis match too.

 

[Kieran]

I think they've all hurt and we have already seen the adverse effects. His record in non slams since last year's USO is stupendous, must be close to 50-2 yet in slams he is 10-2 on the year. Of course some will say these "regular season" stats makes him great, but legends are born in Melbourne, Paris, London and New York. Nowhere else...

Novak is already a legend, Darth, for the record wins in Oz, and his 2011 season alone. But he has six slams in total, and two WTF's, a great record in MS events. He's clearly one of the best we've seen...

 

[brokenshoelace]

All about the occasion for Novak. Maybe he wanted it too much but I subscribe to the theory that the recent struggles in the big matches the past couple years has gotten to him. They were saying that he has mentioned in interviews that for whatever reason he has not brought his best game to the biggest matches the past 2 years. That is putting it mildly. Combine that with the growing pressure to win his first RG and that explains why he played so poorly IMO. The man has won plenty of matches in boiling heat down under the past few years, he has beaten Rafa at every other big clay tournament and I don't think best of 5 is that big of a issue with him vs. Nadal as he can normally match him physically.

Once you start a pattern of playing bad on the big stage it is not going to be easy to fix. One big win at Wimbledon or USO could do it but more losses there could be a huge blow.

Yes I agree. He has the stamina, and demonstrably he has the skill set to beat Rafa. I can only think it was mental. This is the essential difference between Novak and Fedal. They can execute at the highest level

OK, he might have the stamina in general, but he certainly didn't yesterday. I mean is that even debatable? It's not to disregard the mental aspect, but physically, he was spent, and it showed. Just because he's beaten Nadal in marathons in the past doesn't mean he was ready to do it yesterday.

And I still think many (not you) are ignoring what hot conditions do for Nadal's game. It's not a matter of Novak beating Nadal in hot conditions in the past. It's about beating him in a best of five in hot conditions on clay.

Has it been confirmed that Nole had some kind of flu or other ailment heading into the final? Asking seriously because I don't know. If not, then you have to question why he was gassed so quickly yesterday and that might have to do with the pressure of the moment.

I'm not going to go back and find the forecast during the matches on clay he has won vs. Nadal but the fact of the matter is we've seen Nole deal with Rafa's forehand and serve a hell of a lot better than yesterday. His ROS yesterday was especially poor. And when you take that away from him and make his backhand look pedestrian (as it was yesterday) then he is not going to be any good. It's rare that both of those shots would fail him so badly at the same time.

He refused to say something about his health in the official press conferences but I read he told some Serbian media he was suffering from food poisoning since before the semi final and in the press conference after the Gulbis-match his voice sounded like he had the flu.

Probably the hot conditions not only helped Nadal's forehand but also his serve by quite a bit. Murray, who also returns his serve well normally, struggled to win points at all against it on Friday. I remember that last year at the French Open Novak's backhand and return looked mediocre by his standards as well, whereas then in Monte Carlo or this year in Rome when it was rather damp/cool and therefore lower bouncing his returns and especially the cross court backhand did a lot of damage. With yesterday's weather it seemed extremely hard for him to be consistently aggresive against Nadal's forehand shots. I think Nole made nearly no backhand DTL winner and the cross court backhand was not nearly as hard and accurate in creating short angles as in the second and third sets in Rome.

In general I think Nole at this point in time is the favorite against Nadal on clay in cool, heavy conditions and basically 50/50 in neutral (for example warm but clouded) ones. In hot and sunny weather, which not only helps Nadal's game but also seems tough for him physically, he will still need an exceptional performance or a rather poor one from Nadal to win. And with him being ill for some days he probably had little chances of delivering that kind of performance yesterday.

Whoever you are, I like you already. Refreshing to here concrete tennis talk. Welcome.

 

[Kieran]

Kieran, you are fixated on Nadal being up 4-2 in the second set. But how did it get to that point? Likewise, you are neglecting the fact that the score got to 5-5. Djokovic was not far from taking it.

The point is ....

No, buddy, the point is...Rafa wasn't "on the ropes." That's what we're discussing. He was behind, but not every player who loses the first set in a five set match is automatically "on the ropes..."

 

[Backhand_DTL]

Good post and welcome to the boards! Beating Rafa at RG is still the ultimate task in sports and undoubtedly the extra kick in the bounce on hot days is troubling for even Nole's backhand to take on. But in watching Nole the past few years I think his problem goes beyond that, he isn't bringing his best when it matters. Maybe yesterday had a lot to do with a stomach ailment beforehand but the obvious pattern is still there. His last 4 losses at slams have been extremely poor performances.

Yeah his performances in that matches certainly weren't great. But I think after the Australian Open 2012 Nole has often been somewhat unlucky. At the French Open this year and last year the conditions for him were favorable most of the fortnight but the decisive matches against Nadal took place at hot, sunny days and in 2012 play was suspended when the weather favored him. At Wimbledon he played Federer under the roof and Murray after an extremely tough semi final in hot conditions, but he's not great enough on grass to consider him losing to those two a real surprise. At the US Open last year his form was not that great and his confidence rather low and it was the opposite for Nadal, so its not that you could expect a great performance in that match. The final in 2012 was probably the worst loss as he was the best player of the tournament in my opinion and might well have won without the strong wind or with a day off before the final. Australian Open this year was also a rather bad loss as he would have most certainly won the title had he survived the Wawrinka-match, but with him being lucky against Wawrinka 2013 and Murray and Nadal 2012 it kind of evens out a bit there.

As of now Nole is probably aware of his often less than great performances in the final stages of the majors during the last two years and seems to get nervous and insecure quickly, if things don't go his way in a big match. Maybe he just needs some kind of a lucky break in a final (inexperienced opponent/opponent that had a tough semi final before/favorable conditions) to get some calmness back and become mentally tougher again.

 

[Kieran]

Maybe he just needs some kind of a lucky break in a final (inexperienced opponent/opponent that had a tough semi final before/favorable conditions) to get some calmness back and become mentally tougher again.

You used an apt word there -FG- - "calmness." Rafa often spoke about that too, when Nole was schooling him for almost a year. The calm. When it goes, I'm sure it's scary for these men, and they sometimes need help to get it back...

 

[DarthFed]

I think they've all hurt and we have already seen the adverse effects. His record in non slams since last year's USO is stupendous, must be close to 50-2 yet in slams he is 10-2 on the year. Of course some will say these "regular season" stats makes him great, but legends are born in Melbourne, Paris, London and New York. Nowhere else...

Novak is already a legend, Darth, for the record wins in Oz, and his 2011 season alone. But he has six slams in total, and two WTF's, a great record in MS events. He's clearly one of the best we've seen...

I wouldn't quite call him a legend yet. But I wasn't saying the guy has not had a great career. He has gotten it done with 6 majors so far. Not legend status but he could fix that by pulling out of whatever funk he has been in for over a year. He won't fix that by showing he can win Miami and the indoor Fall events. That has not been his problem the past few years, underachieving at slams has been.

 

[Kieran]

I think they've all hurt and we have already seen the adverse effects. His record in non slams since last year's USO is stupendous, must be close to 50-2 yet in slams he is 10-2 on the year. Of course some will say these "regular season" stats makes him great, but legends are born in Melbourne, Paris, London and New York. Nowhere else...

Novak is already a legend, Darth, for the record wins in Oz, and his 2011 season alone. But he has six slams in total, and two WTF's, a great record in MS events. He's clearly one of the best we've seen...

I wouldn't quite call him a legend yet. But I wasn't saying the guy has not had a great career. He has gotten it done with 6 majors so far. Not legend status but he could fix that by pulling out of whatever funk he has been in for over a year. He won't fix that by showing he can win Miami and the indoor Fall events. That has not been his problem the past few years, underachieving at slams has been.

I beg to differ: Edberg and Becker are also considered Legends in the game, on six slams each, and Becker barely spent 12 weeks as #1. Nole has over 100 weeks in the top spot, including two straight years finishing as the games best player...