Drum roll please....
Here is the shocking Masterclass prediction with some bare analysis. It will remain "unofficial" since I feel it wouldn't be right to participate in my own contest. But I do want to put myself in the firing line, so-to-speak, as the rest of you good people have.
Masterclass predicted 2014 end of year rankings, 1-5
1. Roger Federer - a result that will be shocking for many, I know. Look for my
Masterclass Reflections blog entry in the next couple of days that will review the past year, and serve up the new year, including Federer's role, which will explain this pick in depth along with the others. If Roger succeeds to be year end #1, he will be the oldest player in the ATP rankings era to achieve number 1, surpassing Andre Agassi (33 years, 181 days), and the oldest year end #1 by far (Ivan Lendl 29 years, 299 days).
2. Rafael Nadal - will continue to be #1 for a long stretch this year. I believe he will generally do well up to Wimbledon. It's how he does the rest of the year that will determine his fate at year end. This is a difficult choice for me. I see Novak Djokovic as a near equal for #2. If Nadal falters or should suffer calamity of some sort, I don't see him hanging onto to #2. I'm leaning toward Nadal here because it has been said that his knees are in the best shape they have been in a long time, and that he will be able to perform at a high level. Can this change? Sure. Look at 2008-2009. I believe Nadal overplayed at the beginning of 2009 and took unnecessary risk which cost him later. One hopes that history doesn't repeat itself for the sake of Rafa and his followers.
3. Novak Djokovic - appears to be hungry to return to #1 based on his late 2013 efforts. He has hired Boris Becker to perhaps shore up some weaknesses in his game, like overheads and volleying, and maybe to provide some insight at the top level. But one doesn't know how this relationship will pan out. Novak was playing very well at the end of the year. Why change things? To me, this change introduces potential for disruption. Still, if it works out well, he could very well place higher than my prediction here indicates. I also have a gut feeling that somewhere along the way here, Novak is due for a down spell. He has generally played at a very high level since the end of 2010 with only some minor dips.
4. Juan Martin del Potro - can climb to this position if he stays healthy. It's a big ask for the pleasant big man considering his history. But his ability clearly merits it. Perhaps it's a bit chancy thinking he can do this, but one feels he is probably approaching his peak level as he only turns 26 next September. I think his new agency team (Godsick-Federer) might know something and I wouldn't be surprised if the popular, soft-spoken, but fiery Argentine can rise to the very top in the next couple of years if he can stay healthy.
5. Andy Murray - has recently recovered from back surgery. One doesn't know how this will affect him. My gut feeling is that it will be a wash. It normally takes a player some time to recover their best form following surgery and time off, which will cost him early year rankings placement. I think Murray will be fortunate to be at top form somewhere between Wimbledon and the US Open and it would be a blessing for him to win a title before that. The clay season has never been his forte. One also has to question his continued motivation and ambition. His win at Wimbledon for him was a watershed event. If he doesn't find additional motivation, he could slip further than #5 in the rankings this year. Still, if his back is healthy, and his serve is on, he could do well from mid year to the end. We will see.
Masterclass predicted 2014 end of year rankings, 6-10
This section is more difficult to pick for most of us. The margins and differences are quite small. Someone from outside the top 10 can infiltrate and become a new top 10 player. A player that has marginally made it to the top 10 can easily fall. I will pick a combination of players that have been consistent over the years, and venture to put forth a new top 10 player or two. Even if it doesn't happen this year, it is only a matter of time.
6. David Ferrer - is a marvel. At the age of 31 he reached his highest ranking of #3. I think he will fall some, but not as much as others seem to think. He plays as many tournaments as anyone, and one day will not be able to continue this, but I think he has another fairly good year in him at least. He could very well make another slam final at Roland Garros with the right draw.
7. Stanislas Wawrinka - is arguably playing the best tennis of his career. Can he stay in the top ten and possibly improve, or will he drop back? I think he can stay. He showed a great deal of intestinal fortitude last year against the very best. His confidence has never been greater as he emerged from the shadow of his more famous countryman. He has an excellent coach in Norman that I think will continue to bolster his efforts. A top win over a top player at a major tournament will be needed for him to get to another level (top 5). We will see if that happens.
8. Tomas Berdych - has been consistently in the top 10 since mid 2010. Last year he failed to win a title. But there were some excellent efforts against the very top players like against Djokovic in Rome. He couldn't quite put it all together for an entire tournament, losing 3 finals. I think he will continue to be a spoiler against the top players, but will lose matches he should not, which might be the story of his career.
9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - is like a powerful world class ship without a stable rudder. When he is steering straight, he can beat anyone in the world. But otherwise, his game varies between tennis god and clown. An excellent coach combination would be the best thing for him, but I don't think he has found the right one, and it is getting late for the very likable Tsonga.
10. Jerzy Janowicz - can break into the top 10 with some serious consistent effort as long as he can stay healthy, which is always a factor for the big guys in the sport. I know this pick is also a stretch, but he is my pick of the younger guys for new entrance into the top 10. To me, he has the most game and is capable of beating top 5 players in the right conditions. His challenge is to be more consistent in his play and shot making selections while continuing to vary his game. His wingspan is tremendous and I think he can get to the net more often he will be very dangerous, especially at Wimbledon and the US Open (if conditions speed up a bit).
Masterclass honorable mentions for 2014
John Isner - can be a top 10 player if he schedules his tournaments better. He needs to be fresher going into tournaments to go deep.
Milos Raonic - is one of the few young guns that can get to another level with better movement and backhand consistency. Can he do it, or has he reached his top level? Will Ivan Ljubicic help him? In what ways?
Grigor Dimitrov - can make a move to the top ten if he improves his conditioning/stamina. He has all the tools now, and can compete with the top players; it's just a matter for how long in a match he can last.
Masterclass players to watch in 2014
Kei Nishikori - may improve with Michael Chang in his corner. The big thing for Kei is his health and conditioning. It must improve for him to improve.
Vasek Pospisil - is a generally underrated but improving Canadian player, one to watch.
Pablo Carreño (Busta) - made a huge rankings improvement last year (654 to 64). If he can continue this, he might be a factor very soon.
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Finally, good luck to all in the contest and thanks for participating! My wish is for good health for all players in 2014!
Respectfully,
masterclass
