CLAY SEASON - General Discussion

[10isfan]

Anyone betting on Nadal losing on clay this year is betting on his getting injured. Simple as that. Maybe Chung can challenge him next year.

 

[Moxie]

More than likely... but it might be the manner of his likely defeat that will give us a better measure of where he is it. A Thiem-esque capitulation would be the last thing he needs right now... but if he got in a decent match, even in a loss, it could give him a big boost.

I think this is true. If he feels himself getting in some licks on Nadal, he's going to feel better about his game, going forward. Of course, he'd like to win, but a decent loss would be good forward progress. This is why I wasn't sorry to see Rafa lose to Thiem in Rome last year. His previous meeting with Novak (in Madrid) had been a rout. The only good outcome for Rafa was going to be another rout, just before RG. And especially seeing how Novak played v. JMDP and DT. He'd have made inroads, though it didn't end up mattering.

Let us say that if Novak does not get reinjured (arm/elbow) after responding to 5000 rpm topspin forehands, it will give him a boost.

I have thought about this, too. I'm not gaming for injury, by any means, but Rafa's weight of shot on clay is really going to test his arm. And his fitness. I hope his recovery is coming along well. I fully expect that we'll get this match, and I'm looking forward to it.

 

[Fiero425]

I think this is true. If he feels himself getting in some licks on Nadal, he's going to feel better about his game, going forward. Of course, he'd like to win, but a decent loss would be good forward progress. This is why I wasn't sorry to see Rafa lose to Thiem in Rome last year. His previous meeting with Novak (in Madrid) had been a rout. The only good outcome for Rafa was going to be another rout, just before RG. And especially seeing how Novak played v. JMDP and DT. He'd have made inroads, though it didn't end up mattering.
I have thought about this, too. I'm not gaming for injury, by any means, but Rafa's weight of shot on clay is really going to test his arm. And his fitness. I hope his recovery is coming along well. I fully expect that we'll get this match, and I'm looking forward to it.

I've always wondered how Nadal's arm stays on his body with all the torque going on? So much effort is being exerted for each and every FH swipe! It was rather obscene in the waning years of his rivalry with Nole! Djokovic was able to run Nadal to death standing on the baseline while Rafa's 10 yards behind the baseline with shots barely crossing the net! They were dropping so short! At one of their most embarrassing meetings in Qatar 2 years ago, even with Rafa playing well, everything was dropping in for Nole! He put Nadal on a string blowing him off the court 1 & 2! I can watch it over and over! :whistle:

 

[Moxie]

I've always wondered how Nadal's arm stays on his body with all the torque going on? So much effort is being exerted for each and every FH swipe! It was rather obscene in the waning years of his rivalry with Nole! Djokovic was able to run Nadal to death standing on the baseline while Rafa's 10 yards behind the baseline with shots barely crossing the net! They were dropping so short! At one of their most embarrassing meetings in Qatar 3 years ago, Rafa was playing well, but everything was dropping in for Nole and he Nadal in a string and blew him off the court 1 & 2! I can watch it over and over! :whistle:

You can massage over matches that give you pleasure. Surely the last bastion for the Novak fan at the moment: youtube from a couple of years back. As to Nadal's arm, it's not his that is in danger, but that of his opponent. McEnroe hit with him and actually said he felt like his arm was being ripped out of the socket, facing his forehand. Roger had a gigantic ice-pack on his right shoulder after the 2008 Wimbledon, and Kei just had one on his right wrist, after the MC final. It doesn't hurt Rafa to hit it. It pains the rest to return it.

 

[monfed]

Hope someone roasts dull at RG or he loses enough points to lose #1 ranking by the end of RG.

 

[Moxie]

Welcome, Monfed! Federer fan, I take it? Some of us Nadal fans are kind of hoping he skips a clay event...most likely Rome. That would be enough to put Roger back at #1. Otherwise, he does have some points to gain in Rome. Anyone you like for beating Rafa at RG?

 

[monfed]

Welcome, Monfed! Federer fan, I take it? Some of us Nadal fans are kind of hoping he skips a clay event...most likely Rome. That would be enough to put Roger back at #1. Otherwise, he does have some points to gain in Rome. Anyone you like for beating Rafa at RG?

Thank you. Yes a Fed fan, guilty as charged. Hope for another Soderling day.

 

[Moxie]

Thank you. Yes a Fed fan, guilty as charged. Hope for another Soderling day.

Oh, lord, how you people hang onto ol' Robbie Soderling. Even he got sick of it. But I guess you're saying you have no particular comers, just hoping or the perfect storm?

 

[monfed]

Oh, lord, how you people hang onto ol' Robbie Soderling. Even he got sick of it. But I guess you're saying you have no particular comers, just hoping or the perfect storm?

Problem is Wafa will get a cakedraw as per usual. If he got Djokovic-Chung-Nishikori-Delmugtro back to back then he could lose. Or Wafa may get tired by the time RG comes after winning all the clay before that.

 

[Moxie]

Problem is Wafa will get a cakedraw as per usual. If he got Djokovic-Chung-Nishikori-Delmugtro back to back then he could lose. Or Wafa may get tired by the time RG comes after winning all the clay before that.

Rafa doesn't always get a "cakewalk" draw, though, on clay, it's hard to make a difficult one for him. (Barcelona was meant to be tough, but Djokovic got dumped in the 1st round, and Nishikori had to retire.) The one you've envisaged would be potentially tough. I think Goffin, too. You're looking for a combination of players to soften him up, and (most likely) a tall big hitter to take him down. Am I right?

 

[Carol]

Problem is Wafa will get a cakedraw as per usual. If he got Djokovic-Chung-Nishikori-Delmugtro back to back then he could lose. Or Wafa may get tired by the time RG comes after winning all the clay before that.

Maybe you should put more attention to how the draw is working and changing during each tournament, it's always depending how each player is playing and advancing and also their rivals, the draw is simply a peace of paper

 

[Fiero425]

Oh, lord, how you people hang onto ol' Robbie Soderling. Even he got sick of it. But I guess you're saying you have no particular comers, just hoping or the perfect storm?

It looks like it would take just that; someone in the zone, Rafa not quite himself, and the crowd not propping him up when needed! You would think "someone" would upset Rafa over the years more than that lone Soderling triumph! It's why I call this past generation "gutless;" esp. his team mates from Spain! They were little more than fodder over the years with victories over their compatriot few and far between! :whistle:

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here is a thought experiment for idle souls. Suppose Rafa is not playing in RG this year, who do you think will win it? I think it is a total crap shot, almost like a Serena-less WTA field where anyone of 100 players could win the title.

 

[Moxie]

Here is a thought experiment for idle souls. Suppose Rafa is not playing in RG this year, who do you think will win it? I think it is a total crap shot, almost like a Serena-less WTA field where anyone of 100 players could win the title.

Interesting question. One would like to pick Djokovic, but I don't think he'll have pulled his game or head together by then. Next, then, to see how Juan Martín and Stan look in Madrid when they reappear. I guess my top pick would be JMDP. Some might say Thiem, but his talent is not strong enough, imo. Nishikori is more likely, if he could string together 7 healthy matches. My dark horses would be Ferrer, Zverev and...why not? Tsitsipas.

 

[Moxie]

It looks like it would take just that; someone in the zone, Rafa not quite himself, and the crowd not propping him up when needed! You would think "someone" would upset Rafa over the years more than that lone Soderling triumph! It's why I call this past generation "gutless;" esp. his team mates from Spain! They were little more than fodder over the years with victories over their compatriot few and far between!

It is typical of your disregard for Nadal that you think it is mere gutlessness by the field that has prevented any other upset of him at RG. Even the most stalwart of Federer fans give Rafa more credit on clay than you do. Calling out his fellow Spaniards in particular is a cheap shot and a rather venomous cliché. Name one that is as talented as he is. And yet, even you say that it would take someone having a great day, and Nadal being not quite himself. That that hasn't happened 10 times speaks not to the weakness of the field, but to the prowess of Nadal. You might be gracious enough to admit that just once.

 

[mrzz]

Why people cannot simply accept that Nadal is BETTER than the rest on clay. I will write very slowly

B E T T E R
B EEE TTT EEE RRR

The other guys don't lose because they are afraid, because they are tired, because the wind was blowing in the wrong way. They lose because THEY ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH. Simple as that.

Do people watch the fucking matches or what? Do they see that most guys cannot deal with the shots Nadal fire? Do they see that they are not able to hit hard enough to make winners? That they are a bunch of sissys that give up on the second set, just because they lost the first? "Oh, I lost a set point, poor me, I will start hitting with my eyes closed because I am so pissed...", oh, go suck a nail.

But the point is, they LOST the first.

Some guys, on a good day, can challenge Nadal for a while. But Nadal is strong enough in his head to have a good day every day (at least a decent day). Those guys should pay attention and try to learn.

Regarding @GameSetAndMath question, if it was 2017, I would say Thiem with eyes closed. In 2018... it is a complete toss up. It would be Federer, if he was there as he is supposed to.

 

[Moxie]

Excellent rant, @mrzz! And thank you for telling people off in a way that no Nadal can with authority, it seems. But do you really think that Federer should have played this clay season? Because clearly he would be the answer to @GameSetAndMath's question, if he had.

 

[mrzz]

Excellent rant, @mrzz! And thank you for telling people off in a way that no Nadal can with authority, it seems. But do you really think that Federer should have played this clay season? Because clearly he would be the answer to @GameSetAndMath's question, if he had.

From a completely self-centered perspective, focusing solely on major count, no. If we add YE#1 to the goals list, then maybe one MS and RG.

But my point is that guys like them should always play the majors (if healthy). It is a sign of respect for the game.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Problem is Wafa will get a cakedraw as per usual. If he got Djokovic-Chung-Nishikori-Delmugtro back to back then he could lose. Or Wafa may get tired by the time RG comes after winning all the clay before that.

Is this DarthFed’s mini me?

 

[Moxie]

From a completely self-centered perspective, focusing solely on major count, no. If we add YE#1 to the goals list, then maybe one MS and RG.

But my point is that guys like them should always play the majors (if healthy). It is a sign of respect for the game.

You hold a high standard, but I don't agree. Roger has shown a huge amount of respect for the game, and paid a lot of dues in. I also recently made the point that there is a loop-hole whereby he can get an invitation into the next Olympics without having played DC, and some Fed fans disagreed with that. They say play by the same rules. Imho, Roger has paid a lot, A LOT of service to the game, and whatever keeps him in it, I'm down with that. And I say this as one who doesn't want to see him fresh for Wimbledon, as a partisan. There's a lot of grind in the tennis game. If you don't agree that, at some point, some have earned a few "get out of jail free" cards, then you risk losing them. There actually are provisions whereby X number of years played and matches played allows for X number of tournaments to be skipped. It's not a cheat or disrespect of the game. That's actually the game respecting the player's service.