Brexit

[britbox]

12:04am
Analysis: Newcastle result is first shock of the night

"The Newcastle result is the first shock of the night. This counting area - one of the referendum's largest - was expected to come out much more strongly for Remain. JP Morgan, one of the largest and most influential investment banks, expected 66.8pc of the vote for Remain. The actual margin of victory was much smaller, with only 51pc voting to stay in."

Peter Spence

 

[britbox]

12:05am
'Leave looking at big win in Sunderland'


Labour sources have told The Telegraph that Leave are looking at a comfortable Sunderland victory of 60/40. If this is the case then this could be a very interesting twist to tonight's events.

 

[britbox]

12:12am
Money flowing into Brexit bets


Closely-watched EU referendum betting markets have come alive in the last few minutes, as punters splash cash on the chance of a Brexit outcome.

A flood of money has pushed up the odds of a Leave outcome to 18pc on Betfair, one of the largest bookmakers. The perception of a higher chance of a UK exit has come in tandem with a fall in the pound, now at around $1.4925.

Peter Spence

 

[britbox]

12:17am
Sunderland votes to LEAVE


Remain 51,930, Leave 82,394, Turnout 65%

This is a huge result for the Leave campaign and will certainly unsettle those thinking Remain have got it in the bag.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

As of 3:00 am UK time, 97 of 382 voting areas counted. Remain:50.1 , Leave:49.9.

Very tight.

 

[DarthFed]

Decent lead for "leave" now. I bought fairly heavy into S&P volatility right at the end of the day. I usually don't like to hold over night but "remain" was expected and already factored into the market over here in the states. If it ends up remain I think a further rally tomorrow morning will be sold off. If leave it will be a nasty fall initially and I will make a pretty penny in the morning. Overall risk to reward ratio was great given the S&P action today.

 

[DarthFed]

Dow futures down 550. This is shaping up to be a Black Friday

 

[EdbergsGhost]

Dow futures down 550. This is shaping up to be a Black Friday

Lol. It's just Soros manipulating things (joking). Leave up by 500,000 votes at present.

 

[DarthFed]

Vix futures (volatility) up 40%!!

I'm like a fat kid hearing he got a year's supply of cake right now. Of course the flip side is this may be bad for the global economy so can't be too thrilled about that. This is entertaining as hell to follow, like presidential elections.

 

[Billie]

There is still a lot of votes to go through but I am surprised that Leave is leading. At 4:20 it is 51.6% to leave and 48.4% to stay.

That is for 69.1% of votes counted.

 

[Moxie]

Paul Krugman has a fairly sanguine take on the options:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/17/opinion/fear-loathing-and-brexit.html?_r=0

He is an economist, and he doesn't think "Leave" will benefit Britain, while understanding that the alternatives are not great.

Vix futures (volatility) up 40%!!

I'm like a fat kid hearing he got a year's supply of cake right now. Of course the flip side is this may be bad for the global economy so can't be too thrilled about that. This is entertaining as hell to follow, like presidential elections.

Doesn't it worry you that you appear slightly soulless? Oh, well, "I might win something on a bet," so, probably not. Jeepers, Twisted.

 

[EdbergsGhost]

From the Daily Mail - looks like "exit"!!

Projections show the Leave campaign is set to prevail in the historic ballot after stacking up votes in England and Wales, despite massive support for Remain in London and Scotland.

The direction of the battle started to become clear with a shock result in Sunderland which saw the Out camp win by 61 per cent to 39 per cent.

A surprise victory for Brexit in Swansea, where the pro-EU side had been expecting to romp home, signposted a disastrous showing for Remain across Wales.

With around a quarter of the declarations in, analysts and betting firms are now forecasting that the Leave campaign will come out on top.



Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...a-Remain-pins-hopes-London.html#ixzz4CSprL1nr

 

[Moxie]

I won't believe it until the votes are counted, but that would be bad news.

 

[EdbergsGhost]

Vix futures (volatility) up 40%!!

I'm like a fat kid hearing he got a year's supply of cake right now. Of course the flip side is this may be bad for the global economy so can't be too thrilled about that. This is entertaining as hell to follow, like presidential elections.

If this plays out for a Brexit, many in the Netherlands and France will be quickly moving in the same direction. The Swiss have withdrawn their application to the EU, commenting that one would have to be daft to want to join.

 

[Moxie]

If this plays out for a Brexit, many in the Netherlands and France that will be quickly moving in the same direction. This Swiss have withdrawn their application to the EU, commenting that one would have to be daft to wan to join.

And do you think this is a good thing or a bad one?

 

[Billie]

I've never liked the concept of EU anyway. People lived there for centuries before (and without) this invention.

 

[EdbergsGhost]

There is still a lot of votes to go through but I am surprised that Leave is leading. At 4:20 it is 51.6% to leave and 48.4% to stay.

That is for 69.1% of votes counted.

The thing is, the areas that should have put them over the top for Remain, did not. The demographic for the areas of the country yet to be counted have pretty much polled toward Leave. That's why they are making the statements.

 

[EdbergsGhost]

And do you think this is a good thing or a bad one?

If it ends up Leave? Excellent for the UK, and every other European nation that wants to maintain its autonomy from an overreaching central bureaucracy.

 

[Billie]

If it ends up Leave? Excellent for the UK, and every other European nation that wants to maintain its autonomy from an overreaching central bureaucracy.

Especially for smaller countries that have been bullied into all kinds of ultimatums and demands.

 

[Moxie]

That is a small world version of what the effects would be on the UK, according to most world economists. The EU is wildly imperfect, but can be made better, especially with the UK voting close to stay in. That would give loads of leverage. The EU bureaucracy is a problem, but fixable. It is also a more sizable trading bloc than the European countries were, alone. It's a long-term endeavor, but I think it can work. Britain doesn't have much leverage on its own.