Brexit

[britbox]

Where are you getting the "less than 15% figure" from Federberg? Young never gave the figure of 59% - he quoted Paxman who did independent research. Who said it was less than 15%? and what percentage did they give?

The EU parliament passes laws - it doesn't make them... rather like the House of Lords.

As a sovereign country the UK can apply to rejoin the EU whenever it likes... much like it did when it wasn't a member the first time around. The option to stay is far more dangerous... as has been seen already.. this is a once in a lifetime vote... unless you vote against (like Ireland) and then you get to vote again until they get the decision they want...

 

[Federberg]

It's a case of lies, damn lies and statistics. I have looked at research that puts the percentage somewhere between 10% and 15%, I'm not going to give you a specific number because I don't have it to hand (I want to say 13%, but that might be false accuracy, and details like the analysis period are also important). But some people will suggest that laws which have to be vetted to make sure they don't breach established European laws are therefore being introduced by the EU. It's a fudge and it's inaccurate.

As for rejoining, I have to disagree. I'm happy with the concessions we have been able to extract from the EU. Joining again would mean that we surrender all of that. If you think we'll be able to get those back and more then you are not understanding how European politics plays on the continent. Germany (and France for slightly different and more petty reasons) would be heavily incentivised in that scenario to advertise to the EU and wider Europe, that this is what happens when you do what the UK has done. We'll be the ones in the weak position. If you are so keen to leave it puzzles me as to why you keep on talking about rejoining later. Under current circumstances it makes no sense to me for us to leave. I would rather save that hand for a time when such a thing might actually be worthwhile. You should worry about the fact that the likes of Le Pen are supportive of the Leave campaign. Sometimes observing the types of politics which support your view might force a reassessment of the merits of the argument... at least it would for me

 

[britbox]

It's a case of lies, damn lies and statistics. I have looked at research that puts the percentage somewhere between 10% and 15%, I'm not going to give you a specific number because I don't have it to hand (I want to say 13%, but that might be false accuracy, and details like the analysis period are also important). But some people will suggest that laws which have to be vetted to make sure they don't breach established European laws are therefore being introduced by the EU. It's a fudge and it's inaccurate.

As for rejoining, I have to disagree. I'm happy with the concessions we have been able to extract from the EU. Joining again would mean that we surrender all of that. If you think we'll be able to get those back and more then you are not understanding how European politics plays on the continent. Germany (and France for slightly different and more petty reasons) would be heavily incentivised in that scenario to advertise to the EU and wider Europe, that this is what happens when you do what the UK has done. We'll be the ones in the weak position. If you are so keen to leave it puzzles me as to why you keep on talking about rejoining later. Under current circumstances it makes no sense to me for us to leave. I would rather save that hand for a time when such a thing might actually be worthwhile. You should worry about the fact that the likes of Le Pen are supportive of the Leave campaign. Sometimes observing the types of politics which support your view might force a reassessment of the merits of the argument... at least it would for me

I don't want to rejoin if we left... I was commenting on your point that if we leave it's forever but if we stay then we can always leave later... I think the reverse is true.... we'll get so entwined in the fabric of a super state that it will be very hard to leave later... much harder than it is now.

Why would I care what Le Pen thinks? That's like me saying you shouldn't vote remain because Martin McGuiness and Gerry Adams support it.

 

[britbox]

It's a case of lies, damn lies and statistics. I have looked at research that puts the percentage somewhere between 10% and 15%, I'm not going to give you a specific number because I don't have it to hand (I want to say 13%, but that might be false accuracy, and details like the analysis period are also important). But some people will suggest that laws which have to be vetted to make sure they don't breach established European laws are therefore being introduced by the EU. It's a fudge and it's inaccurate.

Very much so, but nobody other than you seems to arrive at a figure of less than 15%. Even the pro-remain press are reporting it at somewhere between 15 and 55% depending on how you want to look at it.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/how-many-britains-laws-really-7420612

 

[Moxie]

I have stayed out of this, as it isn't my fight. However, the rest of the world is on tenterhooks to see what Britain will decide tomorrow. Paul Krugman has said that deciding to stay now doesn't preclude leaving later, but that rejoining after a "leave" vote is not an option. A good friend of mine who is a Brit made this point and I think it's well-taken: the best outcome would be that Britain votes to stay in, but that it would be a close vote. This might force the EU to consider some structural changes, but wouldn't be as drastic as Britain going out. I do agree with the position that, if Britain votes out, they can't go back except with their tail between their legs and would have no leverage. The best leverage is this one: scare the crap out of the EU, but stay in.

 

[britbox]

They don't have leverage now. Cameron went to Europe to re-negotiate and came back with next to nothing. We're already in the EU... we know what it's like.... people "selling the utopia" are selling snake oil.

I find it utterly bizarre how people are willing to sign over the key decision making powers to a club containing 26 other countries... cowardly even... safety in numbers without self determination. The EU is a massive undemocratic bureaucratic sluggish institution. The whole thing will implode... better getting out now. It's a timebomb waiting to explode.

 

[Federberg]

I have stayed out of this, as it isn't my fight. However, the rest of the world is on tenterhooks to see what Britain will decide tomorrow. Paul Krugman has said that deciding to stay now doesn't preclude leaving later, but that rejoining after a "leave" vote is not an option. A good friend of mine who is a Brit made this point and I think it's well-taken: the best outcome would be that Britain votes to stay in, but that it would be a close vote. This might force the EU to consider some structural changes, but wouldn't be as drastic as Britain going out. I do agree with the position that, if Britain votes out, they can't go back except with their tail between their legs and would have no leverage. The best leverage is this one: scare the crap out of the EU, but stay in.

That's exactly what I'm thinking as well Moxie. A relatively close win for 'Remain' will be the best chance to push the EU into making changes. A 'Leave' vote ties their hands, at that point they'll circle the wagons and prioritise ensuring that no other country is tempted to do what the UK is doing. They're not naive enough to think that better terms will help. For the vast majority of 'Leave' voters, there's precious little the EU would be able to offer to change their minds. And any 'Leave' politicians who try to argue for a renegotiation in the aftermath will alienate their colleagues and risk the contempt and censure of those who fought on the 'Remain' side. It's a pipe dream that better terms would be offered or the UK will be able to ignore the will of the people

 

[Federberg]

GBP/USD is on absolute tear today. Keeps rallying. Looks like the early exit polls are showing a lead for 'Remain'. Doesn't mean their going to win though. My understanding is that the first exit polls were expected to come from areas which are in the 'Remain' camp. We'll start to see bad news (from my perspective! ) later in the day. I was out for dinner with some of the guys I used to work with at the last hedge fund I worked for and only one of them was on the 'Leave' side, which frankly was a surprise to the rest of us. It's going to be a tight one!

 

[britbox]

I think Remain will win by the margin you suggested earlier Federberg. People tend to vote for what they know. Around 5% probably.

What will be interesting is the fallout for the Conservative Party in the aftermath... I'd hazard a guess that Brexiters are a large chunk of their core vote. Osbourne is toast... Gove will be toast in a remain... Cameron is stepping down later in any event... Will be a tumultuous time all right.

There is a precedent of a no vote before - Ireland voted no and the EU came back to the negotiating table. The departure of the UK would have a huge impact on the EU - I think you really underestimate it... they'd be back at the table. Staying in wouldn't give the UK a better package - they are already in and had renegotiation already. A Remain will give the EU a mandate.

 

[Federberg]

I think Remain will win by the margin you suggested earlier Federberg. People tend to vote for what they know. Around 5% probably.

What will be interesting is the fallout for the Conservative Party in the aftermath... I'd hazard a guess that Brexiters are a large chunk of their core vote. Osbourne is toast... Gove will be toast in a remain... Cameron is stepping down later in any event... Will be a tumultuous time all right.

There is a precedent of a no vote before - Ireland voted no and the EU came back to the negotiating table. The departure of the UK would have a huge impact on the EU - I think you really underestimate it... they'd be back at the table. Staying in wouldn't give the UK a better package - they are already in and had renegotiation already. A Remain will give the EU a mandate.

I don't underestimate it at all. I think you misunderstand what I am saying. For the very reason it's existential, the reaction function of the EU is going to be entirely different to Ireland. In addition to this, euroscepticism is a problem in even core countries like Germany and France now. A huge problem actually. Any sign of weakness will play to the advantage of the Le Pen's of this world. The key is looking at this from the point of view of European politicians who in the event of a 'Leave' vote will have to deal with collapsing asset prices, more confident Eurosceptics across the EU, an EU breakup premium (as opposed to the euro breakup premium in 2010 brought on by the Greek default) being assigned by the market. Their first priority will be make sure there is no EU breakup crisis. This means getting the Brexit politics concluded as quickly as possible, in as ruthless a fashion as possible, so that no other country dares to try this. They will not try to appease the UK, because the 'Leave' campaigners will use that to say that they were right to get away, look how desperate the EU is. I don't think they can afford to try to put improved terms forward mate, even if Germany would want to in an ideal world. They will have to focus on the integrity of the EU, that trumps all

 

[britbox]

Disagree, because a Brexit might encourage other nations to exit.... I think a 2 speed Europe is a more likely scenario... it might just be packaged as a trade deal during the transition.. Juncker ain't going to want to lose face... but neither will the economic elites want to say goodbye...

Anyway, I'm getting Brexit fatigue... been arguing with a bunch of people on Facebook over the last couple weeks.... Will discuss when the result is in which is a vote to remain, I guess... and the fallout for the Conservative Party and the UK Parliament.

 

[Federberg]

Disagree, because a Brexit might encourage other nations to exit.... I think a 2 speed Europe is a more likely scenario... it might just be packaged as a trade deal during the transition.. Juncker ain't going to want to lose face... but neither will the economic elites want to say goodbye...

Anyway, I'm getting Brexit fatigue... been arguing with a bunch of people on Facebook over the last couple weeks.... Will discuss when the result is in which is a vote to remain, I guess... and the fallout for the Conservative Party and the UK Parliament.

Lol! Were they on my side?

The stuff that happens with the Tories is going to be super interesting. If 'Remain' wins there surely has to be some sort of reshuffle. But how long will Cameron and Osborne be able to last?

 

[britbox]

Lol! Were they on my side?

The stuff that happens with the Tories is going to be super interesting. If 'Remain' wins there surely has to be some sort of reshuffle. But how long will Cameron and Osborne be able to last?

About 50/50 on my list... only engaged people if they posted up bullshit... one person was voting on the premise of being able to take her dog camping in Europe without restrictions... lol.

I read that 57% of Tories are voting Brexit and 32% of Labour... so based on that, I think Cameron and Osbourne are both toast. The former probably won't care too much, but I'd hazard a guess Osbourne had designs on the leadership after Cameron left... no way that will happen. Might see the party implode.

 

[britbox]

Enjoyed the discussions on this thread BTW... understand your view even if I don't agree with it. There are legitimate concerns for a Brexit.

 

[Federberg]

About 50/50 on my list... only engaged people if they posted up bullshit... one person was voting on the premise of being able to take her dog camping in Europe without restrictions... lol.

I read that 57% of Tories are voting Brexit and 32% of Labour... so based on that, I think Cameron and Osbourne are both toast. The former probably won't care too much, but I'd hazard a guess Osbourne had designs on the leadership after Cameron left... no way that will happen. Might see the party implode.

hahahaha! That's hilarious! On the flipside one of my clients, who I usually think is a very smart guy told me he's voting for Brexit because he'd heard all the Brexit arguments and thought they were compelling. So I asked him what he didn't agree with about the 'Remain' side. And he said he hadn't listened out for the 'Remain' argument. I was flabbergasted. I mean.. if you agree with 'Leave' that's one thing, but not to have even heard the opposing argument to help you form your view? Baffling!

yes it's hard to see how Osborne's ambitions are going to be fulfilled. If I have one fervent wish it's that Boris never gets the job of PM. I can respect a guy like Gove who was always a eurosceptic. But I can't respect an opportunist.

 

[Federberg]

Enjoyed the discussions on this thread BTW... understand your view even if I don't agree with it. There are legitimate concerns for a Brexit.

yes I enjoyed them a lot too. It's good to have a reasoned debate with someone intelligent who has the intellectual and emotional maturity to accept that sometimes people just disagree with you. It ain't personal, it's just opinions!

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Any results yet?

 

[britbox]

Not yet, polls only closed half an hour ago. If the General Election counts are anything to go by then the early counts usually come through first from the Labour heartlands, so expect a wide Remain lead early on (60%+)... will probably narrow to around 55-45 by the end. Turnout has been high by all accounts.

What kind of commentary is this getting in Canada and Turkey murat?

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Both countries , as far as I can follow, are very interested in the outcome for various reasons but here in Canada the US election is taking more of the news space. The Turkish papers I read are very engaged. "Remain" seems to be the consensus.

 

[Federberg]

Garage thinks 'Remain' has won. And polls on the day are indicating 54 - 46 in favour of 'Remain'