Brexit

[Federberg]

Well, the EU don't have that trade deal with the US and predictions are they won't have it until around 2020 if at all. They've been negotiating for years already and in the meantime the US have struck various trade deals with other countries... it's not like there is just one queue for processing. The EU aren't very good at striking trade deals... we know how long they take.

That comment from Osbourne was indeed reckless.

The US takes at least as long as the EU to sign trade deals mate. Not sure why you think otherwise. The whole trade process is politicised in the US, with the executive proposing deals and the legislature responsible for passing them into law. Unfortunately the toxic bipartisanship makes this a fraught process.

News out today that the EU is now telling the Swiss that access to the single market is conditional on the free movement of people. Somehow I think that's a message to us over here in the UK

 

[Federberg]

this is hilarious.. thought they were off camera!

 

[britbox]

^ Hilarious... was that Rifkind he was talking with?

 

[Federberg]

yup I've always like Ken. I can imagine he would be great to have a glass of wine with

 

[Federberg]

Got to love the Tories. Leadsom has fallen on her sword. They see Labour in disarray, so they are uniting. Still.. it's going to be very difficult for Theresa May not to have another general election soon. She doesn't really have a mandate personally. Some might argue that because it's a parliamentary democracy it doesn't matter, but this is too big. If she's smart she'll announce on almost immediately, but there's a danger that it could become another referendum on Europe. If Labour for example say that a vote for them means no Brexit, it's going to put a lot of Tories like me in a difficult position!

 

[britbox]

Can't see that happening. May's leadership campaign is based on the fact that she will implement Brexit. She wouldn't be very smart to call an election without that happening. The Tory manifesto at the last election included a guaranteed referendum - that's probably why they won more convincingly than anticipated.

 

[Federberg]

Can't see that happening. May's leadership campaign is based on the fact that she will implement Brexit. She wouldn't be very smart to call an election without that happening. The Tory manifesto at the last election included a guaranteed referendum - that's probably why they won more convincingly than anticipated.

Yes I know that the Conservatives will campaign on Brexit being a fact. My point is that if other parties say they'll campaign against that, it places many of us in a tough position

 

[britbox]

Yes I know that the Conservatives will campaign on Brexit being a fact. My point is that if other parties say they'll campaign against that, it places many of us in a tough position

It will be done before the next election. Remember the fixed term legislation that was introduced - basically the next general election is scheduled to be held in 2020.

 

[Federberg]

It will be done before the next election. Remember the fixed term legislation that was introduced - basically the next general election is scheduled to be held in 2020.

Nope. An early general election can be called. The fixed term is effectively the maximum term

 

[britbox]

Nope, an early election outside of the fixed term can be called on two pretexts:

- A vote of no-confidence in the government
- Two thirds of the house agrees to have an early election

I hardly think May will call an election on the basis of no-confidence in the government. The second would require the support of the Labour party... which they would certainly give.... but it would be a more ridiculous situation than the first.

 

[britbox]

The whole reason for the act was to take away the right of the party in power to "pick and choose" the date of the election.

 

[britbox]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gen...ed-term-parliaments-mean-for-our-country.html

 

[Federberg]

^Lol! Well there are constitutional experts appearing on the news today who would beg to differ. I'm just the messenger here. I'm not that invested

 

[britbox]

Well they need to read the legislation... it was put in place to prevent the exact thing you are advocating.

 

[britbox]

There will be no election before 2020 other than on the grounds I mentioned above. It's a point of law.

 

[Mary]

Got to love the Tories. Leadsom has fallen on her sword. They see Labour in disarray, so they are uniting. Still.. it's going to be very difficult for Theresa May not to have another general election soon. She doesn't really have a mandate personally. Some might argue that because it's a parliamentary democracy it doesn't matter, but this is too big. If she's smart she'll announce on almost immediately, but there's a danger that it could become another referendum on Europe. If Labour for example say that a vote for them means no Brexit, it's going to put a lot of Tories like me in a difficult position!

Leadstrom can now add former PM to her CV!

I still think it's a poisoned chalice. If May does not achieve good exit terms they can blame her and dump her.

The Labour situation is intensifying. I don't think Eagle is a good choice in view of her support of Iraq and her opposition to any enquiry. I wonder if she is being set up. To me it feels like an attack on the labour membership and the one member one vote principle which matters even more than Corbyn's position. I can't imagine what would happen if they try to stop new members voting when they took their money on the basis of the right to vote. Or what would happen if Corbyn was not on the ballot! That would put lots of us in a difficult position too!

 

[Federberg]

Funnily enough, someone has just said roughly what the telegraph article says now

 

[britbox]

I'm not a fan of Corbyn's politics by any stretch, but he's true to himself and has huge backing from the membership of the Labour Party... Don't like Angela Eagle much - she's an opportunist. I think the Labour grassroots populist movement is too big behind Corbyn for him not to stand... and he stills commands some union support.

 

[Federberg]

Leadstrom can now add former PM to her CV!

I still think it's a poisoned chalice. If May does not achieve good exit terms they can blame her and dump her.

The Labour situation is intensifying. I don't think Eagle is a good choice in view of her support of Iraq and her opposition to any enquiry. I wonder if she is being set up. To me it feels like an attack on the labour membership and the one member one vote principle which matters even more than Corbyn's position. I can't imagine what would happen if they try to stop new members voting when they took their money on the basis of the right to vote. Or what would happen if Corbyn was not on the ballot! That would put lots of us in a difficult position too!

Well... the Labour party's rules are fairly clear, and Neil Kinnock had to go through it, ironically Jeremy Corbyn was one of the MPs that was organising his ouster. The sitting leader of the party has to get votes from MP's to qualify for a leadership contest. I think this makes sense, because how effective can any leader be if none of his parliamentary colleagues support him? I can only see this going to the courts but I can't see how he'll be able to win. Rules are rules

 

[Mary]

Well... the Labour party's rules are fairly clear, and Neil Kinnock had to go through it, ironically Jeremy Corbyn was one of the MPs that was organising his ouster. The sitting leader of the party has to get votes from MP's to qualify for a leadership contest. I think this makes sense, because how effective can any leader be if none of his parliamentary colleagues support him? I can only see this going to the courts but I can't see how he'll be able to win. Rules are rules

The rules were changed though since the Kinnock situation - I think it was around 2010. There are also rules about how the PLP members should work with their CLPs which have been totally ignored and the CLPs could cause chaos. Personally I would prefer the part to split - there will be no unity with the present divergence of opinion and so much bitterness. We could see something like the old lib/lab pact again.