BNP Paribas Open, Indian Wells, CA, 2023 - ATP Masters 1000

El Dude

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By "strawman," you mean I misrepresent your opinion? Well, feel free to clarify for yourself. You were kind of making an A/B comparison with FAA and Alcaraz, whereby Felix is comparable to Novak and Roger, and Alcaraz is somewhere between Rafa and Ferrer, with Agassi as the midpoint. I do think you know too much about tennis not to notice that your A comparison to Djokovic and Federer is generally considered a more aggressive style, and your B reference is generally in the more defensive. I was noting that Alcaraz is actually a more aggressive player than that, (as is Rafa). But also, I still think that putting Ferrer in there is a bit weird. Alcaraz already has a Major, which Ferrer doesn't. I know from other threads that you have belief in Alcaraz, so I don't think you're demeaning him. I just thought it was an odd comparison. Plus, why not throw in a Ferrer and Agassi-type comparison on the FAA side of the equation. (Especially since Felix is the one who has yet to win a Major?) Such that, say, Felix could end up somewhere between Grigor Dimtrov and Stephan Edberg, as an example. Look, it was a random post, and I'm not trying to hold your feet to the fire on it. I just found the comparisons unequal and rather wrong. That was my opinion. I commented. No need to get all tetchy about it. I know I often rub you the wrong way. It's not intentional. :smooch:
Moxie, you know I love you - we're old internet friends at this point - but I find it irritating when you read stuff into what I say that I'm not actually saying (or intending), and typically when there's a whiff of Rafa in the air ;-). In this case, as I said, I wasn't saying that I think Alcaraz is similar in style to Ferrer or Nadal, but possibly halfway between them in ability - like an Agassi. Perhaps I could have been more clear on that. And that's hardly a knock on Alcaraz! And yes, I compared him to them because they're all Spaniards, though I think it is hardly weird to think of Rafa in reference to Alcaraz.

And I was only comparing FAA to Novak and Roger in that they took longer to come into their own than Rafa did...again, not about play styles, and certainly not ability (No way FAA is anywhere close to Novak/Roger...in truth, Alcaraz is likely far closer to Rafa than FAA is to any of the Big Three).

Actually, the Big Three developed at different paces and in different ways, so they're worth considering as different "archetypal developmental trajectories." As you know, Rafa surged and was an elite by his 19th birthday, in 2005. And then he jumped again in 2008 when his excellence on clay spread (to a large degree) to other surfaces, at the age of 22. Novak reached elite form at 20 2007-08, but didn't really fully come into his own until 2011 at age 23-24. Roger was a lesser player than both through age 21 or so, not reaching elite status until 2003 at 22, but then quickly becoming super-dominant in the following year.

The point being, different trajectories from all three. Rafa surged (2005), stabilized, then surged again (2008). Novak rose more gradually to Slam-winning form (2008), stabilized (even stagnated) for a few years, then surged again in 2011. Roger's rise was more gradual, then spiked in 2004.

So in that regard, it is natural to compare Alcaraz due to his quick rise, which is most similar to Rafa. There's also the Nadal Academy and them both being Spanish, as well as certain stylistic similarities.

As I think you know, I have said that I think FAA is in danger of being another Dimitrov, so that is an apt comparison. But sure, I think he could also be a late-blooming Edberg type. With his talent, it is hard to imagine him not winning at least a couple Slams and a bunch of Masters before he's done.

Actually, FAA's trajectory is more similar to Andy's, though he hasn't been as good yet as Andy was at a similar age. But I also wouldn't be surprised to see Felix put it all together around age 24-25, like Andy did, though likely be below whatever level Alcaraz (and maybe Rune) rise to.

Anyhow, perhaps the confusion is that I tend to focus on more general things, like overall ability and career resumes: stuff that is easier to measure objectively (that is, statistically). I tend to veer away from style comparisons for the opposite reason of your playful little jab: because I don't know as much about actual play as many here, so tend to defer to others on that sort of thing. Actually, this is an example of misunderstanding (or at least miscommunication): What you see as arrogance on my part is actually me sticking to what I feel like I have a a valid opinion. I usually only put forth an opinion when I feel like I know what I'm talking about - like stats, the historical record, etc...stuff that is out there for anyone to look up, though few do. But play styles and such, I'm a neophyte compared to many here.
 
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Jelenafan

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And I was only comparing FAA to Novak and Roger in that they took longer to come into their own than Rafa did...again, not about play styles, and certainly not ability (No way FAA is anywhere close to Novak/Roger...in truth, Alcaraz is likely far closer to Rafa than FAA is to any of the Big Three).

Actually, the Big Three developed at different paces and in different ways, so they're worth considering as different "archetypal developmental trajectories." As you know, Rafa surged and was an elite by his 19th birthday, in 2005. And then he jumped again in 2008 when his excellence on clay spread (to a large degree) to other surfaces, at the age of 22. Novak reached elite form at 20 2007-08, but didn't really fully come into his own until 2011 at age 23-24. Roger was a lesser player than both through age 21 or so, not reaching elite status until 2003 at 22, but then quickly becoming super-dominant in the following year.

The point being, different trajectories from all three. Rafa surged (2005), stabilized, then surged again (2008). Novak rose more gradually to Slam-winning form (2008), stabilized (even stagnated) for a few years, then surged again in 2011. Roger's rise was more gradual, then spiked in 2004.

So in that regard, it is natural to compare Alcaraz due to his quick rise, which is most similar to Rafa. There's also the Nadal Academy and them both being Spanish, as well as certain stylistic similarities.

As I think you know, I have said that I think FAA is in danger of being another Dimitrov, so that is an apt comparison. But sure, I think he could also be a late-blooming Edberg type. With his talent, it is hard to imagine him not winning at least a couple Slams and a bunch of Masters before he's done.

Actually, FAA's trajectory is more similar to Andy's, though he hasn't been as good yet as Andy was at a similar age. But I also wouldn't be surprised to see Felix put it all together around age 24-25, like Andy did, though likely be below whatever level Alcaraz (and maybe Rune) rise to.

Anyhow, perhaps the confusion is that I tend to focus on more general things, like overall ability and career resumes: stuff that is easier to measure objectively (that is, statistically). I tend to veer away from style comparisons for the opposite reason of your playful little jab: because I don't know as much about actual play as many here, so tend to defer to others on that sort of thing. Actually, this is an example of misunderstanding (or at least miscommunication): What you see as arrogance on my part is actually me sticking to what I feel like I have a a valid opinion. I usually only put forth an opinion when I feel like I know what I'm talking about - like stats, the historical record, etc...stuff that is out there for anyone to look up, though few do. But play styles and such, I'm a neophyte compared to many here.
Sorry to interrupt this Moxie-ElDude lovefest , but for goodness sake , Stefan Edberg was a Grand Slam champhion by age 19 ( 1985) and a 2 time GS Champhion and 2 Qtr & 3 SFs at Grandslams by age 21. He was not a “late bloomer” and he accomplished this with the added pressure of having been (and still the only) Jr. champhion of all 4 Majors by the age of 17.


Roger Federer was Wimbledon Champion & a Master winner & YE ATP semifinalist by age 21.

Novak was a Grandslam champhion
a Grand Slam finalist, 2 time Slam SF, and 2 Masters winner at age 21

Nadal was a 4+ Grandslam champion, 2 time Wimbledon finalist , 11 Masters winner at age 21.

My point is they all had their first major breakthroughs by age 21

Even Andy Murray was a Slam finalist and 2 time Masters winner by the age 21

Andre Agassi was a 4 time Slam finalist, a Ye ATP winner and had a Masters win by age 21.

Jim Courier was a 3 time Slam winner, a Slam finalist, an ATP YE finalist & 2 time Masters winner by age 21

FAA turns 23
this August.
He may or may not develop into a genuine champion, and as Eldude you have said, players develop differently .

However comparisons with the other prior champhion vis a vis the development of FAA is stretching things a bit. If he turns 23 and still hasn’t made a breakthrough ( make a Slam final, win a Masters win, etc) we shouldn’t be comparing him to the others.

Of course he could become a “Wawrinka “ but the odds are slim for that…
 
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El Dude

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Sorry to interrupt this Moxie-ElDude lovefest , but for goodness sake , Stefan Edberg was a Grand Slam champhion by age 19 ( 1985) and a 2 time GS Champhion and 2 Qtr & 3 SFs at Grandslams by age 21. He was not a “late bloomer” and he accomplished this with the added pressure of having been (and still the only) Jr. champhion of all 4 Majors by the age of 17.
Let's stop right there. I realize Edberg wasn't late-blooming - and you should know that I know that. I worded that weirdly; what I meant and should have written is more like "maybe Felix will be late-blooming and have an Edberg-caliber career."

And while we're at it, why does everyone nitpick every sentence I write? ;-)
Roger Federer was Wimbledon Champion & a Master winner & YE ATP semifinalist by age 21.

Novak was a Grandslam champhion
a Grand Slam finalist, 2 time Slam SF, and 2 Masters winner at age 21

Nadal was a 4+ Grandslam champion, 2 time Wimbledon finalist , 11 Masters winner at age 21.

My point is they all had their first major breakthroughs by age 21

Even Andy Murray was a Slam finalist and 2 time Masters winner by the age 21

Andre Agassi was a 4 time Slam finalist, a Ye ATP winner and had a Masters win by age 21.

Jim Courier was a 3 time Slam winner, a Slam finalist, an ATP YE finalist & 2 time Masters winner by age 21

FAA turns 23
this August.
He may or may not develop into a genuine champion, and as Eldude you have said, players develop differently .

However comparisons with the other prior champhion vis a vis the development of FAA is stretching things a bit. If he turns 23 and still hasn’t made a breakthrough ( make a Slam final, win a Masters win, etc) we shouldn’t be comparing him to the others.

Of course he could become a “Wawrinka “ but the odds are slim for that…
OK, that's a lot of work to disagree with something I'm not saying. As I think I clearly said to Moxie in the post you were replying to, I am not comparing FAA to the Big Three in terms of his level so far or possible outcomes, or making an predictive comparisons to any all-time greats. I was using the Big Three as three examples of different trajectories to greatness.

As for FAA being 22 already, I get it. But...players may develop differently now, and there are always outliers. Every era is different. Daniil Medvedev is arguably the best player born after Del Potro and one of only 30 players in the Open Era to reach a 2300+ Elo. I'm sure Alcaraz will surpass him, and possible Rune and one or two others. But Daniil didn't make it past a Slam 4R or win a Masters until he was 23 years old, or even win a title until he was almost 22. In other words, FAA is actually more accomplished than Medvedev was at the same age. Medvedev really blossomed after turning 23, and won six big titles at age 23-25. He certainly looks like he could win another Slam or two, or at least pad his Masters tally.

Now to be clear, I don't think FAA will have a career as good as Edberg's, maybe not even Medvedev. But I think he could - that's why I said maybe, as in that was the upward range of what is conceivably possible, with Dimitrov being more the lower range (and I only compared him to Dimitrov as another hyped guy who was never quite as good as hoped...meaning, a cautionary tale for Felix). More likely he has a career somewhere north of Dimitrov: maybe similar or slightly better peak level, but more big titles due to not playing his entire prime alongside the Big Four. I could see something like a Stich or Rafter, but with (probably) greater longevity.

But I do agree that the time is now. If he doesn't break out in a big way this year, I expect something more within the spectrum of Gasquet-Dimitrov-Stich. Or good to very good to excellent, but not even near great or truly great. But again, I see a player who has the talent to win multiple Slams and even spend time at #1...but I doubt he'll ever put it together, and Alcaraz and Rune just get better and better (not to mention Sinner).

If I had to rank the Millenials (born 1999-2003) in terms of who I think will have the best career, it would be Alcaraz, Rune, Sinner, Auger-Aliassime, and then maybe Korda or Musetti, with Shelton the dark horse.
 
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E4C7FBCA-27C5-41A3-BA14-05EFFB7ABBB8.jpeg
 

MargaretMcAleer

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Tiafoe is emloying good tactic's at present serving wide and coming into the net with a volley, not giving Meddy time to get back on court, taking time away from Meddy
 
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MargaretMcAleer

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What a pick up from Meddy right at his toes near the net and he breaks and will serve for the 1st set 6-5
 

MargaretMcAleer

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FH pass down the line from Meddy and he breaks Tiafoe in his first service game in the 2nd set, he seems to be in control now,
 

MargaretMcAleer

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Pink is in the house! ( she was also watching the women's doubles final earlier)
Larry Ellison, owner of IW, is also front and center.
 

Moxie

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Med, looking heretofore so solid, gets tight serving it out, and Tiafoe pounces. DM df'd on MP. 5-5 in the 2nd.
 
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MargaretMcAleer

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Meddy too quick with some of his points when serving for the match, Tiafoe breaks him
This 2nd set is now up for grabs
 

MargaretMcAleer

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Med, looking heretofore so solid, gets tight serving it out, and Tiafoe pounces. DM df'd on MP. 5-5 in the 2nd.
Took quick with his points, and especially his serve, oh well this 2nd set up for grabs
 

MargaretMcAleer

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OMG how did that shot from Meddy land on the line? what a shot from Meddy
He breaks to love and will again try to serve the match out 6-5
 
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