Another angle on comparing tennis greats (with a pretty chart)

[El Dude]

The one that surprises me is Wilander, tbh. But i wasn't watching so much tennis then. He definitely faded.

Less is spoken of how good Wilander was at such a young age because, I think: One, He wasn't that dominant from 82-87, missing out on Slam titles in 86-87, and generally in the #3-4 range. One of the top players, but never (until 1988) considered the best. He was always behind Mac and Lendl, and then Edberg and Becker entered the mix.

Secondly, he had his best year in 88, winning 3 Slams, but then...nothing else. He was still pretty good in 89 (#12) and reached the AO SF in 90, but was a shadow of his former self in the 90s...sort of like Murray or Hewitt, playing on for years after he was no longer a threat to win much of anything.

But still, he won 4 Slams before turning 21 years old. Don't make me do the numbers, but that's probably up there. That's 4 Slams almost two years younger than Roger was when he won his first. And, for the most part, they weren't easy Slams. His first at age 17 was against the three top clay players at the time: Lendl, Clerc, and Vilas. He was probably lucky Borg didn't play.

 

[Fiero425]

The one that surprises me is Wilander, tbh. But i wasn't watching so much tennis then. He definitely faded.

Faded isn't strong enough! Mats dropped off the face of the map after winning 3 majors & the YEC over Lendl in 1988! He got to #1 & literally disappeared off the rankings w/i a year as he lost early & often, w/ bggest upset a 2nd Rd. loss to a very young Pete Sampras at the 1989 USO! I attributed a lot of it to burnout playing his defensive game, the passing away of his Dad, culminating in a failed drug test around the mid 90's! I was surprised he was even out there on tour his results were so poor! Even Murray didn't completely disappear after his hip surgery!

 

[Fiero425]

Of all the GS tournaments this is the one where the likelihood of high seeds getting knocked out early is the highest. Novak has always been very fortunate with this occurring previously.

My tennis blog chronicles the parallel careers of Lendl & Djokovic; both having to overcome the tennis intelligentsia's partiality to "some" stars & none to others! Back in the day the top echelon consisted of Borg, McEnroe, & Connors! Lendl was the interloper! He never won Wimbledon, but got the most out of his ability to consistently make QF's, SF's, & 2 Finals! Djokovic did quite a bit more taking 7 titles w/ 2 prime rivals thwarting his early tries at all majors! I will have to agree Novak's been terribly lucky to be as successful; esp. as the #1 seed so often! That's usually the "Kiss of De@th" when it comes to defending a grass court event! He came thru w/ flying colors many times; going right thru the KING, Roger in 3 finals! Djoker made just about every challenge "his B!tch," save OG! Paris is his last chance! I'm going to doubt him just so he can rub yet another accomplishment in our faces!

 

[El Dude]

My tennis blog chronicles the parallel careers of Lendl & Djokovic; both having to overcome the tennis intelligentsia's partiality to "some" stars & none to others! Back in the day the top echelon consisted of Borg, McEnroe, & Connors! Lendl was the interloper! He never won Wimbledon, but got the most out of his ability to consistently make QF's, SF's, & 2 Finals! Djokovic did quite a bit more taking 7 titles w/ 2 prime rivals thwarting his early tries at all majors! I will have to agree Novak's been terribly lucky to be as successful; esp. as the #1 seed so often! That's usually the "Kiss of De@th" when it comes to defending a grass court event! He came thru w/ flying colors many times; going right thru the KING, Roger in 3 finals! Djoker made just about every challenge "his B!tch," save OG! Paris is his last chance! I'm going to doubt him just so he can rub yet another accomplishment in our faces!

Ivan Lendl may be the most underrated great of the Open Era. Just about every stat system I've dabbled with has him right there with Sampras,. I know, 14 to 8 Slams, but...Lendl did everything else as good or better and played in a harder context than Sampras did, facing late prime Connors and Borg, prime McEnroe, Wilander, Becker, and Edberg, and early prime Sampras, Agassi, and Courier. I see him in a similar tier as Sampras, McEnroe, Borg, and Connors.

 

[Fiero425]

Ivan Lendl may be the most underrated great of the Open Era. Just about every stat system I've dabbled with has him right there with Sampras,. I know, 14 to 8 Slams, but...Lendl did everything else as good or better and played in a harder context than Sampras did, facing late prime Connors and Borg, prime McEnroe, Wilander, Becker, and Edberg, and early prime Sampras, Agassi, and Courier. I see him in a similar tier as Sampras, McEnroe, Borg, and Connors.

IMO, Ivan played the same spoiler role as Djokovic! Novak had to tame Fedal whle Lendl did all he could to limit the success of Connors & McEnroe! It's like Deja Vu; pretty much the same dynamics! Even though Lendl has plenty of accomplishments never mentioned, his making 8 straight USO's, winning 3 in a row is what's impressed people the most! He had to go thru a lot more competition as you mentioned w/ vets, new gens, & future stars! At any given tournament, a dozen players who won at least one major was in his draw! Fedalovic barely dealt w/ 3 or 4 champs & barely a couple extra Masters winners! Fedalovic were stingy allowing the rest of the tour just a handful of Big Tourns. to slip thru their fingers!

 

[El Dude]

Third or fourth best season, losing out on a CYGS by a couple games in a tight fifth set? I don't know--that was closer than in 2011 and lost in straights in 2015 under pressure in New York. I would think it was his second best season, no?

Well, depends upon how you assess seasons. I think from a Slams-only perspective, it is in the same boat as 2015 and 2021. But looking at other results, and I rank it definitely behind 2011 and 2015. So third best. Now you're going to make me make a chart ;-)...

Compare:

The colors are easy enough to interpret and give you a visual sense of things. I've also included Win%, and some "El Dude Ratings" at the bottom. PEP (Premier Event Points) is closely based on ATP points, but a bit more weighted for Slam wins, and only gives points for "premier" results. TS (Title Shares) is only for titles, and very heavily weighted towards Slams; it is basically based on the idea that all big titles equal "100 shares." I'll offer keys below.

Anyhow, you decide. I think his best seasons are, in order: 2015, 2011, 2023, 2021, 2016, and then probably 2012-14 (all very similar, and in the 42-43 range for the last ED rating), and then 2008.


PEP (Premier Event Points):
Slams: W 10 points, F 5, SF 3, QF 1
Masters: W 4, F 2, SF 1
ATP 500: W 2, F 1
ATP 250: W 1
Tour Finals: 1/win, +1 for title (max 6)
Olympics: Gold 5, Silver 3, Bronze 1

Title Shares:
Slams: 14
Tour Finals: 8
Masters: 4
= 100 shares + bonus shares below:
Olympics: 8
ATP 500: 2
ATP 250: 1

 

[El Dude]

A follow-up on Novak, namely 2011 vs. 2023.

Both have three Slam wins and one little ATP 250. The difference is:

2011: Slam SF, Tour Finals RR, 5 Masters, Masters final, 1 ATP 500
2023: Slam F, Tour Finals W, 2 Masters

So basically it is a matter of which we think is better: A Slam F and Tour Finals (2023), or a Slam SF, +3 Masters and an ATP 500 (2011). My systems both say the latter, but some of that is "padding" - meaning, the difference between playing in 15 (2011) vs 12 events (2023).

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I think we can all agree that Roger's 4 best seasons are clear: 2004, 2006, 2005, 2007. The toughest one to decide is the 5th between 2009 and 2017.

 

[El Dude]

I think we can all agree that Roger's 4 best seasons are clear: 2004, 2006, 2005, 2007. The toughest one to decide is the 5th between 2009 and 2017.

Yep. My systems tend to rank 2009 over 2017, and then 2012 as his 7th best.

Rafa's five best are easy: 2008, 2010, 2013, 2017, 2019. I'd probably order them 2010, 2013, 2008, 2019, 2017....but am always tempted to slide 2013 ahead. Maybe I'll do a similar chart...

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Yep. My systems tend to rank 2009 over 2017, and then 2012 as his 7th best.

Rafa's five best are easy: 2008, 2010, 2013, 2017, 2019. I'd probably order them 2010, 2013, 2008, 2019, 2017....but am always tempted to slide 2013 ahead. Maybe I'll do a similar chart...

I'd put 2005 in there, and remove either 2017 or 2019. Rafa won 11 titles in 2005, which is more than what he won in 2017 and 2019 combined. One of highest winning percentage years also. It has to be there somewhere.

 

[El Dude]

I'd put 2005 in there, and remove either 2017 or 2019. Rafa won 11 titles in 2005, which is more than what he won in 2017 and 2019 combined. One of highest winning percentage years also. It has to be there somewhere.

Well, for me it would probably be his 6th best year - although one of his very best clay seasons. The main thing is that he didn't go past the 4th round in any other Slams, and of course just the one Slam to two in 17 and 19. But I hear you - it was a great year, and has the glamour of being when he broke out in a big way.

EDIT: I just looked at my systems, and the average of the two for 2005, 2017, and 2019 is 38, 41, and 39, respectively. Meaning, 2005 and 2019 are close enough to be interchangeable. I haven't yet factored in win % (or something similar), so I think your argument that 2005 > 2019 is plausible.

 

[the AntiPusher]

IMO, Ivan played the same spoiler role as Djokovic! Novak had to tame Fedal whle Lendl did all he could to limit the success of Connors & McEnroe! It's like Deja Vu; pretty much the same dynamics! Even though Lendl has plenty of accomplishments never mentioned, his making 8 straight USO's, winning 3 in a row is what's impressed people the most! He had to go thru a lot more competition as you mentioned w/ vets, new gens, & future stars! At any given tournament, a dozen players who won at least one major was in his draw! Fedalovic barely dealt w/ 3 or 4 champs & barely a couple extra Masters winners! Fedalovic were stingy allowing the rest of the tour just a handful of Big Tourns. to slip thru their fingers!

Borg 's retirement really inflated Ivan's numbers. Although he solve McEnroe somewhat who really lost interest when Bjorn left. I think if Borg would have kept playing it would have been 14 GS Borg, McEnroe 12-14 range, Connors probably 5-7 and Ivan would have been 2-3 range,

 

[Fiero425]

Borg 's retirement really inflated Ivan's numbers. Although he solve McEnroe somewhat who really lost interest when Bjorn left. I think if Borg would have kept playing it would have been 14 GS Borg, McEnroe 12-14 range, Connors probably 5-7 and Ivan would have been 2-3 range,

But it didn't go that way! Lendl wound up ahead of McEnroe & Connors, making a mark that few can compete w/ even looking at current players! ;-)

 

[Jelenafan]

Borg 's retirement really inflated Ivan's numbers. Although he solve McEnroe somewhat who really lost interest when Bjorn left. I think if Borg would have kept playing it would have been 14 GS Borg, McEnroe 12-14 range, Connors probably 5-7 and Ivan would have been 2-3 range,

McEnroe had his best year (1984) 3 years after Borg retired.

With Mac it was IMO the game passed him by.

 

[El Dude]

AI still has some catching up to do:

 

[Fiero425]

AI still has some catching up to do:

View attachment 9615

NEVER WINNING a GS? I'm a little tired, but I think I'm in the same MULTI-Universe! Gastavo Kuerten? I thought he won 3 FO's ('97, 2000, '01) or have I been transported somewhere else in a far away GALAXY? Mecir the only one I have regrets! He had so much talent & kept his anger in check! Nalbandian was a bit loony though talented as well!

 

[Front242]

NEVER WINNING a GS? I'm a little tired, but I think I'm in the same MULTI-Universe! Gastavo Kuerten? I thought he won 3 FO's ('97, 2000, '01) or have I been transported somewhere else in a far away GALAXY? Mecir the only one I have regrets! He had so much talent & kept his anger in check! Nalbandian was a bit loony though talented as well!

Really liked Mecir. He bottled so many matches

 

[Fiero425]

Really liked Mecir. He bottled so many matches

"The BIG CAT!" His court movement was second to none! It was effortless!

 

[El Dude]

The list is otherwise pretty good.

NEVER WINNING a GS? I'm a little tired, but I think I'm in the same MULTI-Universe! Gastavo Kuerten? I thought he won 3 FO's ('97, 2000, '01) or have I been transported somewhere else in a far away GALAXY? Mecir the only one I have regrets! He had so much talent & kept his anger in check! Nalbandian was a bit loony though talented as well!

That's exactly my point - Kuerten won three, but AI didn't know that.

 

[Moxie]

The list is otherwise pretty good.

That's exactly my point - Kuerten won three, but AI didn't know that.

Curious where you got that from, and how do you know it was AI and not just some idiot? Or did you ask AI?