2025 ATP General News

[MargaretMcAleer]

Sad to say Diego Swartzman has played his final dance in Buenos Aires defeated by Martinez in straight sets 62 62
Diego had a Heart liked a Warrior, take a bow!
Have a great retirement you have earned it!

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Don Fabio will be able to sleep well, knowing that Medvedev had a much needed straight sets win in Marseille

 

[Kieran]

Yeah, I get it - I just think that winning a Masters as a teen is pretty big in the current era. I highly doubt we'll ever see a 17-year old win a Slam again...I mean, never say never, but the game is too physical. The last 17 year olds were in the 80s (Chang, I believe, and of course Becker and Wilander).

Fonzie will have two chances as an 18-year old to win a Slam. I highly doubt he wins a Slam this year, but it is conceivable - and he's about as good a candidate as I can imagine. But the main thing is I just don't see him with the stamina to win seven best-of-5s in a row.

We may never see a seventeen year old - though we may, there’s no reason why not. It was said for years that teenagers were not going to win any slams. Definitely, no ordinary teenagers were going to win slams..

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

My "under-22" rankings - in order of upside and perceived likelihood of reaching that upside - with the over/under level of disappointment:

1. Fonseca - #1 player, multi-Slam winner
2. Mensik - top 5 player, Slam winner
3. Rune - top 5 player, Slam winner
4. Perricard - top 10, mult-Masters winner, Slam darkhorse
5. Tien - top 10, mult-Masters winner, Slam darkhorse
6. Fils - top 10, multi-Masters winner, Slam darkhorse

After that you have guys like Michelsen, Shang, etc - hard to say where they might end up, but likely lower than those six. Alcaraz is still 21, but he's already actualized a very high level. I suppose he still has an "over/under" on disappointment...which is if he doesn't take another stop forward; it will be disappointing if he's already as good as he'll ever get.

It may not be fair to consider Fonseca a disappointment if he doesn't reach #1 and win multiple Slams, but I think he's just that promising.

I might swap Tien and Perricard, depending upon how this year goes. I don't think Perricard is just a servebot, but he seems to have a good chance of being Isner or Raonic, maybe Ivanisevic if his defense improves a bit.

Fils has slipped a bit, imo - or at least his upside seems a bit less than it once was. I've never been super high on him, though. No shame in being top 10, of course.

In regards to Fils, he seems to be picking up injuries of late, agree his upside does seem a bit less than it once was.
I am still out on Perricard and Tien at present

 

[El Dude]

We may never see a seventeen year old - though we may, there’s no reason why not. It was said for years that teenagers were not going to win any slams. Definitely, no ordinary teenagers were going to win slams..

I think there is reason why not: because of the changed nature of the sport. But...there could theoretically be an exception, I just think that the 80s -- which saw three 17 year olds win Slams -- was a different context, in terms of age. I know @Fiero425 has talked about it, but there were more very young players.

The ITF junior circuit was founded in1977, so maybe that contributed to the large number of very young players on tour in the 80s. Maybe the ITF tour became more of a factor later on, or at least more differentiated from the ATP tour, so players would spend more time playing Futures and Challengers before graduating to the "major leagues."

 

[El Dude]

In regards to Fils, he seems to be picking up injuries of late, agree his upside does seem a bit less than it once was.

He made that big leap from #251 in 2022 to #36 in 2023 when he turned 19; his #20 finish in 2024 was a bit of a slowing down - true elites usually keep rising at that point, whereas second and third tier types tend to slow down and consolidate, rising more slowly to their ultimate upside.

If I remember correctly, there wasn't ever as much the sense that Fils was a future great, as he was one of the most promising post-Alcaraz/Rune players to show up on the radar in 2023. But every young player sort of has their upside and expectation whittled down as they get older...the greats are the ones that just keep going up, while everyone else settles in at some level.

Fils did win two ATP 500s last year shortly after turning 20, which is pretty impressive. But he has yet to reach even the QF of any big tournament, which I think points more to a future second tier type. He turns 21 in June, so I think he's at the age where you want to see him going deeper in big tournaments. I personally think his absolute upside is as a "tweener" between the true elite and the second tier - maybe something ala Rublev or Ruud. That's plenty good.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Real rankings are 1 Fonseca, 2-3 Tien & Mensik (either order is fine), 4-5 Rune & Fils (either order is fine), and 6 Perricard.

Rune turns 22 in April. If he doesn't take that next step soon, then you have to admit that he is what he is. Perricard turns 22 in July, and he hasn't won a slam match.

The fact that you put Perricard higher than Tien, who is 2.5 years younger and beat a Top 5 player in a slam, makes the whole list not credible.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Just started watching Rune v Navone in Buenos Aires, with Navone up a early break in the 1st set.

 

[El Dude]

Real rankings are 1 Fonseca, 2-3 Tien & Mensik (either order is fine), 4-5 Rune & Fils (either order is fine), and 6 Perricard.

Rune turns 22 in April. If he doesn't take that next step soon, then you have to admit that he is what he is. Perricard turns 22 in July, and he hasn't won a slam match.

The fact that you put Perricard higher than Tien, who is 2.5 years younger and beat a Top 5 player in a slam, makes the whole list not credible.

Talk about an overreaction. Are you Learner's big brother?

I actually see Perricard and Tien on a similar level of upside (if in very different ways) - as of right now. That could change in a few months. I'm just not sold on Tien, simply because he's beaten a struggling Medvedev. I'll need to see more before calling him a future great, as you do.

 

[don_fabio]

Just started watching Rune v Navone in Buenos Aires, with Navone up a early break in the 1st set.

It all went downhill for Rune when he failed to convert 0:40 and get back in the set. He will have to hit a reset button like Fonseca earlier today.

 

[Kieran]

I think there is reason why not: because of the changed nature of the sport. But...there could theoretically be an exception, I just think that the 80s -- which saw three 17 year olds win Slams -- was a different context, in terms of age. I know @Fiero425 has talked about it, but there were more very young players.

The ITF junior circuit was founded in1977, so maybe that contributed to the large number of very young players on tour in the 80s. Maybe the ITF tour became more of a factor later on, or at least more differentiated from the ATP tour, so players would spend more time playing Futures and Challengers before graduating to the "major leagues."

I don’t think that’s completely the story, although I don’t say it isn’t part. Remember Borg won the French as a 17 year old, and retained the title the following year. Mats won 2 slams in his teens and so did Boris. I think the consensus here that was trying to form was that teenagers weren’t going to be strong enough to win slams, physically. My feeling was always that youngsters are actually well equipped to endure, but that the culture of losing was too pervasive. That the field was cowed, and that feeling of subservience seeped into the kids.

Except Rafa. Who was always exceptionally large of heart. Now we’re seeing youngsters feel free again. I think that’s a great development.

Once they don’t subsequently flop, like Holger. Who put curdle in his milk? The guy is visibly degrading…

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

It all went downhill for Rune when he failed to convert 0:40 and get back in the set. He will have to hit a reset button like Fonseca earlier today.

Don,
Rune is all over the place, though he can be a slow starter, Navone serving for the 1st set 5-1 and wins the 1st set 61

 

[El Dude]

I don’t think that’s completely the story, although I don’t say it isn’t part. Remember Borg won the French as a 17 year old, and retained the title the following year. Mats won 2 slams in his teens and so did Boris. I think the consensus here that was trying to form was that teenagers weren’t going to be strong enough to win slams, physically. My feeling was always that youngsters are actually well equipped to endure, but that the culture of losing was too pervasive. That the field was cowed, and that feeling of subservience seeped into the kids.

Except Rafa. Who was always exceptionally large of heart. Now we’re seeing youngsters feel free again. I think that’s a great development.

Once they don’t subsequently flop, like Holger. Who put curdle in his milk? The guy is visibly degrading…

I'm just pointing out that the vast majority of teenage Slam winners were in the 80s (or 82-90, to be exactly). 7 of 11, to be exact - 2 before, 2 after that period of time.

You have Borg's two in 1974-75 on one end, then seven by Wilander (2), Becker (2), Edberg, Chang and Sampras in 1982-90; then a gap until Rafa in 2005-06 (depending if you count age at start or end of tournament), and a similar gap until Alcaraz in 2022.

The point being, outliers will occasionally happen, but there was a high concentration in 1982-90...for whatever reason.

And of course only four players have won a Slam at 17 years old: Borg, Wilander, Becker, and Chang -- and none since Chang in 1989, 36 years ago. Hard to imagine the 17-year old that would break that streak in today's era. It is possible, I suppose, but...

Anyhow, when Rafa won Roland Garros, I think it was simply a matter of exceptional talent that bloomed early than a lack of "cowing." It was not long after several 20-year olds won Slams: Kuerten in 97, Safin in 2000, Hewitt in 2001, and not long until Novak won his first at 20. I'm not sure there's something magical about turning 20 that avoids "cowing," but more that Rafa was just that great at an early age.

Of course Fonseca hasn't won a Slam yet. He's got six more to play as a teenager, and given his meteoric rise, it is certainly possible. I don't think this as much signals a breaking of the dam, as a third exceptional ("all time great") talent to emerge in the last few years. Talent comes in waves, and I just don't think any of the players born 1988-2000 were as talented as Sinner, Alcaraz, and seemingly Fonseca. I think there are some underachievers in that range, but I just don't see any of them being on the level of the Classic Big Three or the New Big Three. Nishikori, Raonic, and Dimitrov might have won a Slam or two and/or some big titles in a different era, but none would ever have been ATGs. Similarly with Thiem, Medvedev, Zverev, etc. All very good players who could have won more if not for the shadow of the Big Three, but none scream "ATG talent" to me - not like Alcaraz, Sinner, and Fonseca do.

(Again, assuming Fonseca becomes as good as we hope).

 

[don_fabio]

Rune sent packing. Played good 2nd set, but mentally collapsed in a TB and lost.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Rune sent packing. Played good 2nd set, but mentally collapsed in a TB and lost.

Agree Don credit to Navone deserves his win

 

[Kieran]

I'm just pointing out that the vast majority of teenage Slam winners were in the 80s (or 82-90, to be exactly). 7 of 11, to be exact - 2 before, 2 after that period of time.

You have Borg's two in 1974-75 on one end, then seven by Wilander (2), Becker (2), Edberg, Chang and Sampras in 1982-90; then a gap until Rafa in 2005-06 (depending if you count age at start or end of tournament), and a similar gap until Alcaraz in 2022.

The point being, outliers will occasionally happen, but there was a high concentration in 1982-90...for whatever reason.

And of course only four players have won a Slam at 17 years old: Borg, Wilander, Becker, and Chang -- and none since Chang in 1989, 36 years ago. Hard to imagine the 17-year old that would break that streak in today's era. It is possible, I suppose, but...

Anyhow, when Rafa won Roland Garros, I think it was simply a matter of exceptional talent that bloomed early than a lack of "cowing." It was not long after several 20-year olds won Slams: Kuerten in 97, Safin in 2000, Hewitt in 2001, and not long until Novak won his first at 20. I'm not sure there's something magical about turning 20 that avoids "cowing," but more that Rafa was just that great at an early age.

Of course Fonseca hasn't won a Slam yet. He's got six more to play as a teenager, and given his meteoric rise, it is certainly possible. I don't think this as much signals a breaking of the dam, as a third exceptional ("all time great") talent to emerge in the last few years. Talent comes in waves, and I just don't think any of the players born 1988-2000 were as talented as Sinner, Alcaraz, and seemingly Fonseca. I think there are some underachievers in that range, but I just don't see any of them being on the level of the Classic Big Three or the New Big Three. Nishikori, Raonic, and Dimitrov might have won a Slam or two and/or some big titles in a different era, but none would ever have been ATGs. Similarly with Thiem, Medvedev, Zverev, etc. All very good players who could have won more if not for the shadow of the Big Three, but none scream "ATG talent" to me - not like Alcaraz, Sinner, and Fonseca do.

(Again, assuming Fonseca becomes as good as we hope).

Who’s “the new big 3?”, brother?

 

[mrzz]

I knew the Coria match was going to be tricky. Was almost sure he would lose the first.

If Fonseca is lucky to get Rune, he will wipe all the clay from those courts with him.

Too bad Navone swept the floor with him fist (for a set at least).

Navone showed a lot of class. Twice Rune went for a body shot from close range (and with all the power he could muster), not only Navone won both points, but he never came close to complaining (I would have gone for a fist fight right away), as Rune not even considered apologizing. At the hand shake Navone was all smiles. Zero grudge. Kudos to him.

As for Fonseca, could not see almost anything from his match, but from what I saw (three games in the middle of the second set), from what you guys commented and from highlights, he turned the match around. I have seen him do this before. Not bad for a 18 years old, specially one with a forehand like that.

Tough match now against Navone, but I guess he won't make the ton of UFEs Rune made, both today's matches will serve as a good example of what to do and not to do.

 

[El Dude]

Who’s “the new big 3?”, brother?

I assume you've heard some talk about Alcaraz and Sinner as the new "big two," and some have questioned whether or not someone--Rune, for a bit, and now Fonseca--can make it a trio.

This is not to compare them to the greatness of Roger/Novak/Rafa, but to point out the gap between Sinner/Alcaraz and everyone else.

 

[mrzz]

Just saw a long highlights (more than half of the points played) of the Fonseca match. The story of the match was Fonseca struggling to deal with the very high kick of Coria's top spin. It bothered home till the end, but he progressively found a way to deal with that. Also Coria, who fought valiantly, finally ran out of steam in the middle of the third, when he was already down a break. Far away from Fonseca's finest moment in terms of shot making, but a very mature showing.

 

[Kieran]

I assume you've heard some talk about Alcaraz and Sinner as the new "big two," and some have questioned whether or not someone--Rune, for a bit, and now Fonseca--can make it a trio.

This is not to compare them to the greatness of Roger/Novak/Rafa, but to point out the gap between Sinner/Alcaraz and everyone else.

Well obviously Sinner and Alcaraz, but never thought of anyone else. Rune is a huge disappointment, isn’t he? Only as recently as that Wimbledon Q/F he seemed like he’d grow into the role. He’s not taking that next step.

I haven’t yet written him off but he’s become forgettable, which is the stage before I write him off…