2020 US Open Men's Final: Alexander Zverev vs. Dominic Thiem

[Moxie]

I know it is a short ask for him to go far at RG given the turn around time. I hope he can though. It will be interesting to see what winning a slam does for Thiem and his game.

Surely this gets him over a hump. He won't be playing Rome, so he'll go into RG with no clay prep other than training. His draw will be key. I still don't expect him to beat a rested Rafa, but who knows what belief can do for you.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

Well, we also don’t know what form Rafa will have coming into this. There is nothing like match play going into a slam even if it is Rafa’s favorite slam. Dominic will be the number 3 seed so he will have the potential of having to go through both Rafa and Djokovic to win at RG. His road will definitely be tougher. Add Zverev to the mix depending on where he lands and this could be a tough slam for a lot of players.

 

[Jelenafan]

Well, we also don’t know what form Rafa will have coming into this. There is nothing like match play going into a slam even if it is Rafa’s favorite slam. Dominic will be the number 3 seed so he will have the potential of having to go through both Rafa and Djokovic to win at RG. His road will definitely be tougher. Add Zverev to the mix depending on where he lands and this could be a tough slam for a lot of players.

However Rafa is playing a clay Masters before Roland Garos.

A lot of theseguys played only Cincy before USO and Theim stumbled in that tournament. So match play isn’t always a clear indicator.

 

[Moxie]

However Rafa is playing a clay Masters before Roland Garos.

A lot of theseguys played only Cincy before USO and Theim stumbled in that tournament. So match play isn’t always a clear indicator.

I know it's weird to talk about this as the "European clay season." Prep or no, I think Rafa goes into this as the favorite. Rest is not a bad thing, right now. Rafa has stumbled before RG and won it. And, as you say, Thiem stumbled in "Cincy" and won the USO. On top of it, this is 2020, so anything can happen.

 

[Moxie]

It's never too late unless you lose MP

I'm bumping this post from @kskate2.

 

[Vince Evert]

Take 2 (ESPN highlight Vid) -

 

[Federberg]

this was the result I expected to wake up to but not the scoreline! Wow...Well done Thiem. I celebrate a sublime one handed backhand fella to the pantheon. Next step is to start taking stuff directly from the Big 3. I think he can and will do that... very sooon

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

Even though Thiem won, two glaring issues he will need to fix if he wants to make life easier in his pursuit of more. He has to start his service games ahead. I can’t tell you how many times he started behind on serve like 0-30. While he weathered those storms relatively unscathed, it also tells opponents they will always have a shot at breaking you. His court positioning is terrible particularly in receiving second serves. Had he given Zverev something to think about when delivering a second serve, he could have gotten Zverev rattled even earlier than he did.

 

[Jelenafan]

This final Dominic was tight and the timing on his groundgame was way off the first few sets. I never felt Theim was actually humming at his A game for any sustained period of time. ( compare with the AO)

Theim has made 2 HC Major finals winning one ( could have won the other but I digress) , nearly squeaked through the YE ATP finals on indoor low bouncing HC , won a Master on HC over Fed, and has HC victories versus Nadal, Djokovic, Tsitspas, Zverev, Medvedev, etc.

So despite starting as primarily a natural clay courter, he’s made the adjustment for HC though I still feel it’s not quite a natural fit. Like Nadal, with hard work and a strong drive he’s willed himself into a great HC player.

With grass it’s an open question per the issues Sundaymorning brought up, but if anything Dominic has shown he’s willing to do what is needed to improve.

 

[kskate2]

So very happy for Domi. He really gutted that match out. A well deserved win after losing his first 3 finals. Nothing but blue skies from here. Onward and upward Dominic.

 

[kskate2]

thiem still young enough to win at least 8-9 majors titles that would put up with the greats, hes already better than cillic, potro roddick ect.

He's not better than Roddick yet. Andy reached #1 after winning his lone slam. Domi needs to achieve that feat or win multiple slams to be better than A-Rod.

 

[ftan]

thiem still young enough to win at least 8-9 majors titles that would put up with the greats, hes already better than cillic, potro roddick ect.

TBH comparison with Delpo is not fair, his is the one with a career of 'what could have been' if not marred by injuries, everytime he came back he has given people a run for their money. I do have a soft spot for him so you can say I am biased, but when he was on no one could stand his firepower

 

[imjimmy]

Thiem just barely beat Zverev in the 5th set in a tiebreak after Zverev served for the match. Only a total moron would say Thiem is “much better.” That makes no sense.

I actually agree with this. Zverev has a higher ceiling than Thiem. In the final, his second serve was beyond pathetic - there were at least 3 in the final set which were between 66 and 80 mph. The second serve he rolled over in TB defied belief - I've hardly seen a slower second serve even in the WTA. Despite this he almost (actually should have) won the match.

Thiem seems to have maxed out his abilities. Zverev is younger and has more upside for sure. If he fixes his 2nd serve (which he surely will eventually) and puts on some more muscle - he can play at a level consistently that he only does in patches right now. At that level, he could beat not just Thiem but the big 3 as well. It's like a genetic freak with that 6"6' height, huge serve, lengthy wingspan but still great court coverage.

 

[imjimmy]

I know it's weird to talk about this as the "European clay season." Prep or no, I think Rafa goes into this as the favorite. Rest is not a bad thing, right now. Rafa has stumbled before RG and won it. And, as you say, Thiem stumbled in "Cincy" and won the USO. On top of it, this is 2020, so anything can happen.

Nadal is the favorite in RG and always will be. Lack of preparation is not a concern. Rafa could wake up from a vacation into the Phillip Chatrier in the French Open final and still win it.

I think the concern for Nadal would be more along the timing of the tournament and the conditions. Those would have a BIG impact.
Sep/Oct - is on an average a lot cooler than June (almost up to 10 degrees cooler). And with the day being shorter, some matches are inevitably going to stretch into the night. In cooler and slower conditions, Nadal would NOT get the action he gets off the court with the spin (with which he yanks his opponents laterally) that he gets in the summer. The roof will inevitably also have an effect.

I wouldn't worry about Thiem as a title contender. But I would put Djokovic very very close to Nadal as the 2nd favorite. If there is one year that Nadal could be taken down at the French Open, it would be this year by Djokovic given the timing and the conditions. Which is not to say that it will happen, but it is a stronger possibility this year than it would be in a normal year.

 

[Moxie]

Nadal is the favorite in RG and always will be. Lack of preparation is not a concern. Rafa could wake up from a vacation into the Phillip Chatrier in the French Open final and still win it.

I think the concern for Nadal would be more along the timing of the tournament and the conditions. Those would have a BIG impact.
Sep/Oct - is on an average a lot cooler than June (almost up to 10 degrees cooler). And with the day being shorter, some matches are inevitably going to stretch into the night. In cooler and slower conditions, Nadal would NOT get the action he gets off the court with the spin (with which he yanks his opponents laterally) that he gets in the summer. The roof will inevitably also have an effect.

I wouldn't worry about Thiem as a title contender. But I would put Djokovic very very close to Nadal as the 2nd favorite. If there is one year that Nadal could be taken down at the French Open, it would be this year by Djokovic given the timing and the conditions. Which is not to say that it will happen, but it is a stronger possibility this year than it would be in a normal year.

Surely the cool conditions with be something that doesn't help Rafa, but the size of the court doesn't change. Nor the surface. If Rafa is in good form and healthy, which I expect he is, no one beats him on clay at RG. But I respect your analysis.

 

[imjimmy]

Surely the cool conditions with be something that doesn't help Rafa, but the size of the court doesn't change. Nor the surface. If Rafa is in good form and healthy, which I expect he is, no one beats him on clay at RG. But I respect your analysis.

I didn't say Rafa would be beaten. He is a bigger favorite at RG than anyone has ever been at any slam in the history of tennis.
I'm just saying that the conditions will play a role and will be to the detriment of Nadal. Sure, he could play his best and still thrash everyone. It is still clay and he's played Davis cup during this time of the year.

But the field (Djokovic) would have a better chance in such conditions than they would be in the regular summertime and they would hope for a dip from Nadal.

 

[Federberg]

I actually agree with this. Zverev has a higher ceiling than Thiem. In the final, his second serve was beyond pathetic - there were at least 3 in the final set which were between 66 and 80 mph. The second serve he rolled over in TB defied belief - I've hardly seen a slower second serve even in the WTA. Despite this he almost (actually should have) won the match.

Thiem seems to have maxed out his abilities. Zverev is younger and has more upside for sure. If he fixes his 2nd serve (which he surely will eventually) and puts on some more muscle - he can play at a level consistently that he only does in patches right now. At that level, he could beat not just Thiem but the big 3 as well. It's like a genetic freak with that 6"6' height, huge serve, lengthy wingspan but still great court coverage.

for a guy who seems to have maxed out his abilities it's extraordinary how Thiem's game seems to improve every single year. I don't see Zverev as having higher potential just higher hype

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

for a guy who seems to have maxed out his abilities it's extraordinary how Thiem's game seems to improve every single year. I don't see Zverev as having higher potential just higher hype

I was going to say Thiem has a lot of things he can improve to take his game to the next level like working on his serve to get some free points and his court positioning. He can certainly work on having a stronger net game as well.

 

[Vince Evert]

any official word yet on what the american tv ratings was for either or both finals?

 

[Jelenafan]

for a guy who seems to have maxed out his abilities it's extraordinary how Thiem's game seems to improve every single year. I don't see Zverev as having higher potential just higher hype

Well in all fairness Zverev can improve on that 65 MPH SECOND SERVE....