2020 Predictions and Speculations

[atttomole]

Let's see about Nadal's limited game:

- At worst, the second best forehand on tour (and definitely the most consistent).

- Easily a top 10 backhand, probably top 5.

- At worst, the second best slice on tour.

- Easily one of the best drop shots.

- By FAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAR the best shot selection.

- Great touch, and easily one of the best volleyers on tour at this point (and I've always said his volleys are overrated but this year he's really picked it up).

- At worst the second best mover on tour.

- At worst the second best defense on tour.

- The best defensive lobs on tour.

- Arguably the best offensive lobs on tour with the exception of Murray who's barely active.

- The best passing shots on tour.

- Probably the best overhead on tour next to Federer, and the second best backhand overhead (behind Federer).

- Best tactician on tour.

- Second best variety by far. Tactical adjustments are not made abstractly. You need the game to be able to pull it off. Nadal's ability to play aggressively off both wings, revert to defense mode, break the rhythm with his slice, etc... wouldn't never work if he truly had a limited game.

So, please, explain to me, with all your infinite knowledge, what about any of the above implies that his game is limited? I'd love to actually hear you, for once, talk about technical aspects of tennis.

All the facets of his game that you mentioned are known. I also mentioned earlier that Nadal has improved a lot as a player and credit to him. In particular, he has been more aggressive the last couple of years. One thing that has impressed about his game is that he is attacking a lot more after his serve and he is gobbling up any balls that float in the middle of the court. I liked the way he played his 2018 Wimbledon match against Djokovic, where he prolifically made impressive drop shots.

Having said that, I still think that his serve goes on and off, and that is why it is generally known that he is vulnerable against big servers, when he has pressure to hold his own serve.

On fast surfaces he will always be vulnerable, and on slightly slow surfaces he can rely on his defence and his stamina. Remember his matches versus Kachanov and Thiem at the US Open last year. He earned those wins with sheer determination and his fitness.

I will also add the playing conditions that have slowed down, which I know you have found difficult to acknowledge. You can also that the distribution of his GS titles is skewed. Almost 60 % of his titles were won on clay.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

All the facets of his game that you mentioned are known. I also mentioned earlier that Nadal has improved a lot as a player and credit to him. In particular, he has been more aggressive the last couple of years. One thing that has impressed about his game is that he is attacking a lot more after his serve and he gobbling up any balls that float in the middle of the court. I liked the way he played his 2018 Wimbledon match against Djokovic, where he prolifically made impressive drop shots.

Having said that, I still think that his serve goes on and off, and that is why it generally known that he is vulnerable against big servers, when he has pressure to hold his own serve.

On fast surfaces he will always be vulnerable, and on slightly slow surfaces he can rely on his defence and his stamina. Remember his matches versus Kachanov and Thiem at the US Open last year. He earned those wins with sheer determination and his fitness.

I will also add the playing conditions that have slowed down, which I know you have found difficult to acknowledge. You can also that the distribution of his GS titles is skewed. Almost 60 % of his titles were won on clay.

:sleep:

 

[atttomole]

It's a tennis forum. If you intend for a discussion to stay between two people, send a private message or an email. Jesus, that is literally the first time I ever hear anyone around here chastise someone for "coming in the middle of the discussion." THAT'S THE WHOLE FUCKING POINT OF A TENNIS FORUM.

Let me help you out:

" FORUM:
1.
a meeting or medium where ideas and views on a particular issue can be exchanged."

So, what is the problem exactly? You asked if Nadal needs luck to win outside of Roland Garros and I answered with facts. That somehow seems to have upsety you because...the question was not directed at me? Amazing.

You don’t have to be verbose to make yourself understood. I understand that there are some topics on Nadal that galvanize you. You are free to respond to any post. However, you have to understand the context in which the post was made. My post about Nadal needing luck to win slams outside of RG was in response to Nadalfan. If you read the post, you will see that it was more of a question, as a rebuttal to what Nadalfan said. The post didn’t imply that Federer does not need luck to win slams.
Yes, context is important sometimes when responding to some posts. The problem is that some statements on Nadal do set you off, even when they shouldn’t. I didn’t expect that post to bother you. I remember you were more bothered by Fed fans and other tennis experts talking about how the slowing down of playing conditions has helped some players.

 

[imjimmy]

You are a fan and I understand, but do not try to run away from facts about his limited game. He makes up for his limited game with willpower. It’s actually amazing that with that limited game he has 4 US Opens.

"Limited Game" - that's ridiculous. It is universally acknowledged by tennis experts, commentators and pundits that as Nadal gets older, and has slowed down - he has added a lot of elements to his game since he can't rely on his movement. More aggression and a variety. Variety that is second only to Federer in the game. How can you argue that Nadal is winning by will-power and a limited game? Did you look at the stats? Nadal's 5 set record in later years, is a sharp contrast to his earlier years for the worse - indicating his endurance has suffered. He is running far less, and losing when it becomes a battle of attrition. He is also been waay less clutch than he used to be in the past. Look at stats again on bp conversion and failing to serve out sets and matches. In short - Nadal is trying to finish matches as quickly as possible, because he doesn't have the strength or the speed to outlast anyone.

In fact, Nadal is winning because of the changes he's made to his game and his evolving tactics every match. He can no longer rely on his physicality, willpower or stamina. Ever wondered why Nadal has a GREAT record against the Next Gen - when Novak does not?

If anything, with time, Djokovic has become more passive. That is why when the Serb is not at his A+ game, he's getting outgunned and outplayed by the next gen: Thiem, Medvedev, TsiTsipas, Kachanov etc. The biggest factor which will determine whether Novak overtakes Nadal and Fed will be whether he can adapt and add to his game. His current game - which is completely physical - is less effective as he gets older, and the Next gen have studied it and modelled themselves to beat him.

 

[atttomole]

"Limited Game" - that's ridiculous. It is universally acknowledged by tennis experts, commentators and pundits that as Nadal gets older, and has slowed down - he has added a lot of elements to his game since he can't rely on his movement. More aggression and a variety. Variety that is second only to Federer in the game. How can you argue that Nadal is winning by will-power and a limited game? Did you look at the stats? Nadal's 5 set record in later years, is a sharp contrast to his earlier years for the worse - indicating his endurance has suffered. He is running far less, and losing when it becomes a battle of attrition. He is also been waay less clutch than he used to be in the past. Look at stats again on bp conversion and failing to serve out sets and matches. In short - Nadal is trying to finish matches as quickly as possible, because he doesn't have the strength or the speed to outlast anyone.

In fact, Nadal is winning because of the changes he's made to his game and his evolving tactics every match. He can no longer rely on his physicality, willpower or stamina. Ever wondered why Nadal has a GREAT record against the Next Gen - when Novak does not?

If anything, with time, Djokovic has become more passive. That is why when the Serb is not at his A+ game, he's getting outgunned and outplayed by the next gen: Thiem, Medvedev, TsiTsipas, Kachanov etc. The biggest factor which will determine whether Novak overtakes Nadal and Fed will be whether he can adapt and add to his game. His current game - which is completely physical - is less effective as he gets older, and the Next gen have studied it and modelled themselves to beat him.

I agree wit most of that. Nadal has improved a lot. I have also said that in some of my previous posts. When you are talking about battle of attrition, there are very few players that can outlast Nadal. Djokovic maybe comes close, and who else?

 

[imjimmy]

I agree with all that. Nadal has improved a lot. I have also said that in some of my previous posts.

Thank you. And while no one is denying that Djokovic and Federer are "far superior" hardcourt and grasscourt players than Nadal, it doesn't follow from that that Nadal has a "limited game". It's just that those two guys are possibly the best ever on that surface, just as Nadal is on clay.
I would say Rafa is adapting his game well, as he gets older. Could he be more aggressive, return better and hit flatter? Of course, yes. But he's still managing well and not relying on his legs alone or even outlasting his opponents.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Thank you. And while no one is denying that Djokovic and Federer are "far superior" hardcourt and grasscourt players than Nadal, it doesn't follow from that that Nadal has a "limited game". It's just that those two guys are possibly the best ever on that surface, just as Nadal is on clay.
I would say Rafa is adapting his game well, as he gets older. Could he be more aggressive, return better and hit flatter? Of course, yes. But he's still managing well and not relying on his legs alone or even outlasting his opponents.

I think Novak’s game has translated very well to the grasscourt at SW19, I still wouldn’t say that he is a far superior grasscourt player than Nadal especially if the whole root closing incident in 2018 was addressed properly instead of the prehistoric club rules. I can’t understand why Rafa played that semi final vs Roger with no confidence in his backhand whatsoever.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Nadal’s win-loss record in 2019 by surface:

Grass: 5-1 (83.3%)
Clay: 21-3 (87.5%)
Outdoor HC: 22-2 (91.6%)
Indoor HC: 11-1 (91.6%)

I can’t wait for 2020.

 

[imjimmy]

I agree wit most of that. Nadal has improved a lot. I have also said that in some of my previous posts. When you are talking about battle of attrition, there are very few players that can outlast Nadal. Djokovic maybe comes close, and who else?

Not any more. That was my point. Nadal was cramping in the F.O final vs Thiem. Imagine if it was Nadal who played for 4 consecutive days instead of Thiem, no way was Rafa winning the tournament.

In UsOpen, Nadal skipped Cincy and had a walkover in one match during the UsOpen. That was the least he's ever played before the final. Despite that, he was totally gassed out vs Medvedev. In set 5, it was Medvedev, who had played a million matches, who looked fresher. Nadal somehow managed to cross the finish-line. Moya said that after the final, Nadal could not even wear his jeans. He was so tired.

Again, look at Nadal's 5 set record in the past 3 years. It's been much worse than before, since he just gets tired towards the end and cannot outlast his opponents.

When you think of only Djokovic outlasting Rafa, that was the past. It used to be true like 5 years ago. Not anymore. Nadal has SUCH a limited schedule and he withdraws from so many tournaments - tired and injured. He's trying to peak at the slams, because physically he is a shadow of what he used to be.

 

[Andy22]

Nadal’s win-loss record in 2019 by surface:

Grass: 5-1 (83.3%)
Clay: 21-3 (87.5%)
Outdoor HC: 22-2 (91.6%)
Indoor HC: 11-1 (91.6%)

I can’t wait for 2020.

that's why nadal the best player in the world+ all time he's the best on all surfaces in 2019 or at least hard courts and clay.

 

[Andy22]

You don’t have to be verbose to make yourself understood. I understand that there are some topics on Nadal that galvanize you. You are free to respond to any post. However, you have to understand the context in which the post was made. My post about Nadal needing luck to win slams outside of RG was in response to Nadalfan. If you read the post, you will see that it was more of a question, as a rebuttal to what Nadalfan said. The post didn’t imply that Federer does not need luck to win slams.
Yes, context is important sometimes when responding to some posts. The problem is that some statements on Nadal do set you off, even when they shouldn’t. I didn’t expect that post to bother you. I remember you were more bothered by Fed fans and other tennis experts talking about how the slowing down of playing conditions has helped some players.

give it a rest nadal much more better on all surfaces than Federer is, nadal winning multiple majors on all surfaces while Federer only one on clay courts for 2/3 but nadal masterpiece game got 3/3 multiple wins on all surfaces clearly better. as well nadal got a better backhand forhand,return volley movement defense stamina ect…… basically everything but serve and of course federer needs luck in grand slams cant beat Djokovic in a major to save his life Wimbledon 19 lol, 2012 that's a long time since last win over Djokovic at a major anyway you have nice day not replying to me with my great posts.

 

[atttomole]

Not any more. That was my point. Nadal was cramping in the F.O final vs Thiem. Imagine if it was Nadal who played for 4 consecutive days instead of Thiem, no way was Rafa winning the tournament.

In UsOpen, Nadal skipped Cincy and had a walkover in one match during the UsOpen. That was the least he's ever played before the final. Despite that, he was totally gassed out vs Medvedev. In set 5, it was Medvedev, who had played a million matches, who looked fresher. Nadal somehow managed to cross the finish-line. Moya said that after the final, Nadal could not even wear his jeans. He was so tired.

Again, look at Nadal's 5 set record in the past 3 years. It's been much worse than before, since he just gets tired towards the end and cannot outlast his opponents.

When you think of only Djokovic outlasting Rafa, that was the past. It used to be true like 5 years ago. Not anymore. Nadal has SUCH a limited schedule and he withdraws from so many tournaments - tired and injured. He's trying to peak at the slams, because physically he is a shadow of what he used to be.

That is true, because he is getting older. They are all showing signs of aging. However, I still think that very few players can physically match Nadal, even at 33.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Not any more. That was my point. Nadal was cramping in the F.O final vs Thiem. Imagine if it was Nadal who played for 4 consecutive days instead of Thiem, no way was Rafa winning the tournament.

In UsOpen, Nadal skipped Cincy and had a walkover in one match during the UsOpen. That was the least he's ever played before the final. Despite that, he was totally gassed out vs Medvedev. In set 5, it was Medvedev, who had played a million matches, who looked fresher. Nadal somehow managed to cross the finish-line. Moya said that after the final, Nadal could not even wear his jeans. He was so tired.

Again, look at Nadal's 5 set record in the past 3 years. It's been much worse than before, since he just gets tired towards the end and cannot outlast his opponents.

When you think of only Djokovic outlasting Rafa, that was the past. It used to be true like 5 years ago. Not anymore. Nadal has SUCH a limited schedule and he withdraws from so many tournaments - tired and injured. He's trying to peak at the slams, because physically he is a shadow of what he used to be.

ImJimmy..it's always good to hear from you and read your perspective on the the top 3. If all hold true barring any unforeseen injuries, it will come down to the big 3 and another..Can Rafa survive if he has to endure a possibility of a semi matchup vs Roger and Novak in the final at AO 2020

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Not any more. That was my point. Nadal was cramping in the F.O final vs Thiem. Imagine if it was Nadal who played for 4 consecutive days instead of Thiem, no way was Rafa winning the tournament.

In UsOpen, Nadal skipped Cincy and had a walkover in one match during the UsOpen. That was the least he's ever played before the final. Despite that, he was totally gassed out vs Medvedev. In set 5, it was Medvedev, who had played a million matches, who looked fresher. Nadal somehow managed to cross the finish-line. Moya said that after the final, Nadal could not even wear his jeans. He was so tired.

Again, look at Nadal's 5 set record in the past 3 years. It's been much worse than before, since he just gets tired towards the end and cannot outlast his opponents.

When you think of only Djokovic outlasting Rafa, that was the past. It used to be true like 5 years ago. Not anymore. Nadal has SUCH a limited schedule and he withdraws from so many tournaments - tired and injured. He's trying to peak at the slams, because physically he is a shadow of what he used to be.

What a coincidence? The biological passport program got strengthened and out of competition testing spiked since 2014 only .

 

[Moxie]

What a coincidence? The biological passport program got strengthened and out of competition testing spiked since 2014 only .

What's the coincidence you see?

 

[Bonaca]

"Limited Game" - that's ridiculous. It is universally acknowledged by tennis experts, commentators and pundits that as Nadal gets older, and has slowed down - he has added a lot of elements to his game since he can't rely on his movement. More aggression and a variety. Variety that is second only to Federer in the game. How can you argue that Nadal is winning by will-power and a limited game? Did you look at the stats? Nadal's 5 set record in later years, is a sharp contrast to his earlier years for the worse - indicating his endurance has suffered. He is running far less, and losing when it becomes a battle of attrition. He is also been waay less clutch than he used to be in the past. Look at stats again on bp conversion and failing to serve out sets and matches. In short - Nadal is trying to finish matches as quickly as possible, because he doesn't have the strength or the speed to outlast anyone.

In fact, Nadal is winning because of the changes he's made to his game and his evolving tactics every match. He can no longer rely on his physicality, willpower or stamina. Ever wondered why Nadal has a GREAT record against the Next Gen - when Novak does not?

If anything, with time, Djokovic has become more passive. That is why when the Serb is not at his A+ game, he's getting outgunned and outplayed by the next gen: Thiem, Medvedev, TsiTsipas, Kachanov etc. The biggest factor which will determine whether Novak overtakes Nadal and Fed will be whether he can adapt and add to his game. His current game - which is completely physical - is less effective as he gets older, and the Next gen have studied it and modelled themselves to beat him.

I can follow most of your arguments, except one: Willpower.
That was and is still above Federer and Novak.
Interesting points about Novak’s game, I would add that also his dedication to the show is not that high. He seems to be less motivated to me. But Nadal is crazy for this game as always, he is a total freak , mean that in positive way, obsessed and still hunting for his goals. And that is visible. I’m missing this from Novak.
Roger I think can’t do more.

 

[Moxie]

"Limited Game" - that's ridiculous. It is universally acknowledged by tennis experts, commentators and pundits that as Nadal gets older, and has slowed down - he has added a lot of elements to his game since he can't rely on his movement. More aggression and a variety. Variety that is second only to Federer in the game. How can you argue that Nadal is winning by will-power and a limited game? Did you look at the stats? Nadal's 5 set record in later years, is a sharp contrast to his earlier years for the worse - indicating his endurance has suffered. He is running far less, and losing when it becomes a battle of attrition. He is also been waay less clutch than he used to be in the past. Look at stats again on bp conversion and failing to serve out sets and matches. In short - Nadal is trying to finish matches as quickly as possible, because he doesn't have the strength or the speed to outlast anyone.

In fact, Nadal is winning because of the changes he's made to his game and his evolving tactics every match. He can no longer rely on his physicality, willpower or stamina. Ever wondered why Nadal has a GREAT record against the Next Gen - when Novak does not?

If anything, with time, Djokovic has become more passive. That is why when the Serb is not at his A+ game, he's getting outgunned and outplayed by the next gen: Thiem, Medvedev, TsiTsipas, Kachanov etc. The biggest factor which will determine whether Novak overtakes Nadal and Fed will be whether he can adapt and add to his game. His current game - which is completely physical - is less effective as he gets older, and the Next gen have studied it and modelled themselves to beat him.

Jimmy, this is an excellent post, and I agree with most of it. My quibbles are with what I bolded above. Nadal has lost something in speed, but he's still pretty fast. And strong, I think. But he's made a conscious decision to save his knees, for sure, and the rest of his body, by playing shorter matches when he can, via tactical changes, the endless work on the serve, and other ways you say that he's varied his game. It's a smart choice, it has helped him as the game evolves, and it has almost surely prolonged his career. As to the other bolded, and following on, I think he can rely on his willpower (as @Bonaca mentioned above,) which leads on to stamina, when required, such as in the recent Medvedev match, but he knows he doesn't want to/can't have to do that every match. I actually think his head, his determination, can take him farther than his body would like, but he has definitely realized where that leads. Starting even in '09, the body complains, and breaks down. I think he's been working on a better equilibrium ever since, but it seems that Moyà has been the kick in the pants that was really needed.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I will also add the playing conditions that have slowed down, which I know you have found difficult to acknowledge. You can also that the distribution of his GS titles is skewed. Almost 60 % of his titles were won on clay.

You're unable to spot a nuances in an argument. I never debated that the surfaces have slowed down because that much is known and accepted. I have rejected some self-serving agendas, narratives and conclusions that some of you guys come up with related to the slowing down of the surfaces.

The most obvious thing to point out is...surfaces started slowing down in the early 2000's. We're one month away from 2020. That's nearly 20 years. Get over it already because that's just modern tennis...the same guys play on the same surfaces. It's not like they're bringing back prime Pete Sampras and asking him to adapt.

 

[brokenshoelace]

What a coincidence? The biological passport program got strengthened and out of competition testing spiked since 2014 only .

Another interesting coincidence is that a guy born in 1986 is 33 years old now.

 

[Andy22]

nadal tennis IQ is the highest in tennis history he's game such a masterpiece that it makes you fell in love with tennis nadal the reason why more people started watching tennis.