2018 NextGen Talk

[herios]

@El Dude, I think you are overestimating Rublev. He is an erratic player. One big FH is not enough to become a top notch player.

 

[herios]

Regarding Felix, he had a very encouraging showing. He has to work on his stamina, he gets tired by the end of set 3. He will not be able to handle slams at this stage.

 

[El Dude]

@El Dude, I think you are overestimating Rublev. He is an erratic player. One big FH is not enough to become a top notch player.

Overestimating by thinking he'll reach the top 20? I didn't say anything about him becoming elite.

I agree with you, though, and see him as a future second tier player. Best-case scenario and he has a Berdych/Tsonga-like career, but manages to win a Slam or two and a few Masters due to having some peak years after the Holy Trinity fade. So I suppose more Cilic than Berdych. But obviously he's below Zverev, Tsitsipas, and Shapo (and probably FAA) in terms of future prospects. But I'd put him in the next group of guys who could become big title winners.

Fun fact: Tsitsipas shares a birthday with Sampras; FAA shares a birthday with Roger.

 

[herios]

Overestimating by thinking he'll reach the top 20? I didn't say anything about him becoming elite.

I

If my memory isn't failing on me, I recall you predicted initially for Rublev a top 10 status. Which is not impossible still, but he will need improvement in a few aspects of his game. Top 20 is quite achievable in a few years. You saw also that Coric, Chung, Edmund, Khachanov all stagnated about 2 years in the middle pack before moving up in the 15-30 range. I think Rublev is comparable to those guys I just mentioned.

 

[herios]

Felix Auger entered this week a Challenger in Vancouver, but lost in the first round to Bemelmans.
I am still concerned how inconsistent he is week in and week out. But he is very young, he has time to get more consistent.

 

[DarthFed]

You Canucks will have a good one in Shapo. He has a lot of game. The match against Tiafoe was terrible but you could still see lots of the glimpses to go along with 100 DF's. He was very good last night aside from the sudden drop off for a few games when he was up 4-0 in the second set. He just needs to learn when to go for his shots and when to play defense. He is very aggressive but he can't always be in a position to pull the trigger. Also he got seriously pissed off any time Edmund landed a first serve. It's like he thought the guy getting a few aces was luck or something. Overall he seems pretty mentally strong but I wonder if arrogance may be an issue as he progresses.

 

[El Dude]

Shapo has swagger, he just needs to mature a bit and he'll be fine.

Tsitsipas has a great head on his shoulders: I was so impressed with how he battled against Rafa in that second set and never seemed to get flustered, unlike crybaby Zverev.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Overall he seems pretty mentally strong but I wonder if arrogance may be an issue as he progresses.

I too noticed shades of arrogance from Shapo on multiple occasions. But, life always teaches lessons and it will teach him also. But, then whether he wants to learn is up to him.

 

[herios]

2 days ago I was going to post that 8 of the Nextgen players made it into the R3/ top 32, and that is 25% of the players remaining in the run.
That was one of the best showing in slams as a group.
But then R3 came along and they were almost entirely extinguished with one exception Coric. But he also made it through because he met another fellow Nextgen player Medvedev, so no matter what from that match one of them was going to move on.
Overall once again a disappointing performance of the future generation of players.

 

[El Dude]

Maybe, but let's look at the big picture. Next Gen as a group continues to rise in an overall steady and consistent manner. Compare Next Genners (born 1994 or later) in the top 50 now to a year ago.

2017, before USO:
6 Zverev
17 Kyrgios
20 Pouille
29 Khachanov
42 Edmund
47 Chung

(with Donaldson, Rublev, Medvedev just outside top 50, Coric, Shapo, Tiafoe, Escobedo, and Djere in top 100)

2018, now (before USO):
4 Zverev
15 Tsitsipas
16 Edmund
17 Pouille
20 Coric
23 Chung
26 Khachanov
28 Shapovalov
30 Kyrgios
36 Medvedev
38 Rublev
42 Jarry
44 Tiafoe
45 de Minaur

(with Berretini, Fritz, McDonald, and Donaldson also in top 100)

That is from 6 to 14 players in top 50 (or 12% to 28%), and from 3 to 5 in top 20 (15% to 25%).

Some players have floundered a bit and/or held relatively steady: Kyrgios, Pouille, Khachanov, Zverev.

But a lot have risen substantially in the rankings: Tsitsipas, Edmund, Coric, Chung, Shapo, Medvedev, Rublev, Jarry, Tiafoe, de Minaur, Berretini, etc.

To play Devil's Advocate, Next Gen hasn't really been winning more titles. I just scanned both lists and they seem similar. But the overall performance has improved substantially. Their time is coming.

 

[herios]

I did not talk about their ranking in general. The point is THEY SUCK IN SLAMS. Period.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I did not talk about their ranking in general. The point is THEY SUCK IN SLAMS. Period.

Come on give me a break. D-Minor did not suck. He fought valiantly.

 

[El Dude]

I did not talk about their ranking in general. The point is THEY SUCK IN SLAMS. Period.

And I'm using the fact of their ongoing rise via the rankings as an indicator that their overall level is improving, which should eventually lead to better Slam results.

I don't have time to check now, but I'm guessing that their overall Slam results have been better in 2018 than they were in 2017.

But yeah, I think we share a similar desire to see the next regime take over. I love the Big Four, but I'm ready for change.

 

[AnonymousFan]

I love the Big Four, but I'm ready for change.

AMEN

 

[herios]

Come on give me a break. D-Minor did not suck. He fought valiantly.

He did not suck, he was super considering he was ranked 208 at the beginning of the year. I am expecting more from those aged 22-24.

 

[El Dude]

A couple questions for y'all.

1. Of all the young guns, who do you feel has the highest upside?

I'm not talking about performance so far, but pure natural talent and potential.

For me it is the two young Canadians. Despite still being quite raw, Denis Shapovalov just seems to have a complete game and has a vivacious quality that I think will serve him well. He is only 19, so imagine adding two more years of experience...he could be a very potent player. Felix Auger-Aliassime has a ton of talent and it is obviously too soon, but I expect a fast rise in 2019. He just turned 18 and only has 9 matches on the ATP tour so far. Currently ranked #117, I'm hoping he sneaks into the top 100 before year's end.

Alexander Zverev is obviously quite talented and the most accomplished Next Genner, but I see more of a cap on his ceiling. I still see multiple Slams, but he doesn't look like he has the well-rounded game to dominate. I'll also mention Stefanos Tsitsipas to round out the quartet that I think have a good chance of spending significant time at #1. There are several others who could sneak into the conversation, but I think everyone else is a notch down.

2. What do you think about Marin Cilic as a possible similar career path for Nick Kyrgios?

Cilic was somewhat of an underachiever until 2014, seemingly maxed out as a top 10-20 but not a top 10, big title winner. But then he won the USO just before turning 26 and has been a fixture in the top 10 since, filling a position similar to Tsonga and Berdych before him.

I could see something similar with Kyrgios. He's seemingly maxed out in the top 20 right now, showing flashes of brilliance but still inconsistent. He's 23 right now, the same age Cilic was in 2011, still a few years from taking a big leap forward. Maybe it is next year, maybe in two or three years, but I could see a similar maturation process from Kyrgios, who is both more tempestuous but also probably more talented than Cilic.

 

[herios]

Next Gen. Finals this week in Milan.
Two of the qualified guys will not participate, Zverev, as he chooses London and Denis, due to exhaustion.
The field:
Tsitsipas, De Minaur, Tiafoe, Fritz, Rublev, Munar, Hurkacz and an Italian WC .

 

[El Dude]

The Italian guy has a name: Liam Caruana. 20 years old, #622 in world.

Never heard of Hurkacz until just recently.

 

[herios]

The Italian guy has a name: Liam Caruana. 20 years old, #622 in world.

Never heard of Hurkacz until just recently.

Hurkacz is another tall player, 6'5" from Poland. Ranked 85.
That is all I know.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Don't know this Munar too. I only know D-Minor.