2018 NextGen Talk

[GameSetAndMath]

On April 5 I posted here the next teenager to make the top 100 would be De Minaur.
He did it, the next Monday he will join the elite, he is in a Challenger final on grass, in Surbiton.

In that same challenger, Nick K, played but only in doubles. Apparently, he is testing out whether his shoulders are holding up.

 

[Mile]

I was wondering for some time, NextGen becomes LostGen... someone could write a book, what that Trio all take, for such many years. What has been done by Fedal is amazing, and if Djoko could repeat their step taking some more GS, this would be tremendous "Lost of Generations in tennis".

They become like hockey players, best after 15 years of playing, kind of Ovechkin.

 

[britbox]

I reckon it's the bunch that came just before Nextgen that we can truly call LostGen - Dimitrov and Co.

 

[herios]

I reckon it's the bunch that came just before Nextgen that we can truly call LostGen - Dimitrov and Co.

Truly? I disagree. Grigor won a master event and. WTF. Based on that alone, he is not quite lost, not to speak about that is too soon to write him off .

 

[Moxie]

Truly? I disagree. Grigor won a master event and. WTF. Based on that alone, he is not quite lost, not to speak about that is too soon to write him off .

Grigor finally won a MS and WTF just late last year, after about 8-9 years of being touted as the next big thing. As for the rest of the top of the Lost Gen (25-28 yrs?,) neither Goffin, Raonic nor Nishikori has any big titles. They could any of them pull a Wawrinka and win a Major at 29-30 when the Big Four will surely be winding down, but much much more was expected of Dimitrov than he has thus-far produced.

 

[herios]

Grigor finally won a MS and WTF just late last year, after about 8-9 years of being touted as the next big thing. As for the rest of the top of the Lost Gen (25-28 yrs?,) neither Goffin, Raonic nor Nishikori has any big titles. They could any of them pull a Wawrinka and win a Major at 29-30 when the Big Four will surely be winding down, but much much more was expected of Dimitrov than he has thus-far produced.

Beside Grigor also Sock has one master from that group.

 

[Moxie]

Beside Grigor also Sock has one master from that group.

Yes, true. But again, late last season. Not an impressive showing from anyone in the age group.

 

[El Dude]

I'm surprised you're taking issue with the LostGen moniker, @herios. Remember that no player born in 1989 or later has won a Slam - that is, players turning 29 and younger this year. That is unheard of in Open Era history - probably all of tennis history. Now clearly it is only inevitable that someone starts winning Slams, but there's a reasonable chance that no player born between 1989 and 1992 wins a Slam. Ever.

Here's a list of the best players by year (with age they turn in 2018 in parentheses for the mathematically challenged), with comments on each (I got carried away):

1989 (29):
Kei Nishikori - For a short while there he was the best bet to be the first Slam winner of this generation, with a more balanced skillset than Milos and without the wussiness of Grigor. But I don't see it anymore...maybe a Masters/WTF, but he hasn't yet returned to peak form and the clock is ticking.
Others - Paire, Klizan, Sousa, Steve Johnson, Bedene, Donald Young...None of these guys have a snowball's chance in hell of winning a big title. A weak year of talent.

1990 (28):
Milos Raonic - I suppose he will remain a darkhorse candidate to win Wimbledon, and could do an Ivanisevic, but I don't see him getting by the Big Four, and there are better NextGenners coming up. He'll have to thread the needle with a huge dose of luck or a Cilicesque tournament.
David Goffin - Goffin is an interesting one. He's a bit Ferreresque in that he's got a solid level, but just doesn't have the A-game needed to beat the elites. But he's also had some strong tournaments (e.g. 2017 WTF) and is in a similar category as Kei and Milos in that he could win a Slam if the stars align just right.
Others - Delbonis, Pospisil, Janowicz, Donskoy, Lajovic, etc....See 1989's Others category. Same deal.

1991 (27):
Grigor Dimitrov - There will always be 2017. Seriously, though, he finally broke through and won not one but two big titles, and the WTF to boot. But 2018 looks more like his pre-2017 form. That said, he is only 27 and leads the pack of this generation.
Pablo Carreno Busta - After stagnating for a few years he's come along nicely over the last couple years, even reaching the top 10. But it is hard to imagine him being anything more than a #10-20 type. I consider him a darkhorse for a Masters.
Others - Kuznetsov? Nothing to see here.

1992 (26):
Jack Sock - So much for Skip's assertion that Sock was breaking into elite status. He's a solid player, but I don't even see him as a second tier type (#5-10), more of a good third tier who happened to opportunistically win a Masters. I don't see him seriously competing for a Slam.
Diego Schwartzman - Everyone loves little Diego, but he's kind of a Ferrer Lite...hopefully he can sneak in a Masters, but seems like another third tier ATP 250/500 type.
Bernard Tomic - Should we laugh or cry? Bernard is somewhat tragic. He really belongs in the "Others" category. I'm fairly certain he'll never win much, and would be lucky to sneak in a 250 or 500. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him retire before he's 30.
Others - Kudla, Harrison, Dzumhur, Cecchinato - The latter two could surprise, especially Cecchinato with his nice form at Roland Garros. But no Slam winners here.

1993 (25):
Dominic Thiem - This was the guy who was supposed to take the Clay Crown from Rafa, right? Probably not. Rather, he seems to be bookending Rafa's career with Coria: a very good also ran clay courter who can't compete with the King. Still, he's young enough that he should have some good years after Rafa starts declining, so he's a good candidate to win RG. Nothing else, though. I suppose his nightmare scenario is that Rafa hangs in for another few years, and then some NextGenner emerges as being very good on clay. So while he's got a longish window, it won't last forever.
Others - Vesely, etc...Another weak year.

1994 (24):
Lucas Pouille - Another third tier type. Pouille might dip into the top 10 for spells, ala Goffin and Busta, but like those two he won't be a regular. As a #10-20 type, he'll win his share of 250s and 500s, but he's a darkhorse at best for a Masters.
Others - Jordan Thompson, etc...Another weak group.

1995 (23):
Nick Kyrgios - Angry Nick remains one of the most interesting players to watch on tour. But whereas a couple years ago he looked like he was on the verge of breaking out in a big way, he took a step back last year and has struggled with injury this year. Still, he's so talented that it is hard imagining not winning multiple Masters and even a Slam or two. He's the biggest wildcard on this list.
Kyle Edmund - I'm reminded of Sock in more ways than one. Edmund's breakout might be a bit of a mirage. Yes, he took a step forward, but I think at best he's a "tier 2.5" player. But we'll see.
Others - Nishioka, Djere, Marterer, Jarry, etc...Not much to talk about.

OK, I'll leave it there for now and maybe cover the next group in a later post. Things start getting more interesting in 1996, once we get into the heart of NextGen. As far as definitions go, I generally consider 1989-93 to be LostGen and 1994-98 to be NextGen, but we don't need to rigidly adhere to five-year groupings. Either way, 1994 seems transitional, and 1995-1999 seems to be NextGen, with 2000 being whatever will come next. Just to preview:

1996 (22): Hyeon Chung, Karen Khachanov, Borna Coric, Daniil Medvedev, Thanasi Kokkinakis, Jared Donaldson, etc

1997 (21): Alex Zverev, Andrey Rublev, Taylor Fritz, Jaume Munar, Reilly Opelka, Alexander Bublik, etc

1998 (20): Stefanos Tsitsipas, Francis Tiafoe, Casper Ruud, Michael Mmoh, Stefan Kozlov, Duck Hee Lee, etc

1999 (19): Denis Shapovalov, Alex de Minaur, Corentin Moutet, Miomir Kecmanovic, etc

2000 (18): Felix Auger Aliassime, Nicola Kuhn, Rudolf Molleker, etc

There are now players born in 2001 in the top 1000, but they don't really bear mentioning yet.

 

[Horsa]

I'm surprised you're taking issue with the LostGen moniker, @herios. Remember that no player born in 1989 or later has won a Slam - that is, players turning 29 and younger this year. That is unheard of in Open Era history - probably all of tennis history. Now clearly it is only inevitable that someone starts winning Slams, but there's a reasonable chance that no player born between 1989 and 1992 wins a Slam. Ever.

Here's a list of the best players by year (with age they turn in 2018 in parentheses for the mathematically challenged), with comments on each (I got carried away):

1989 (29):
Kei Nishikori - For a short while there he was the best bet to be the first Slam winner of this generation, with a more balanced skillset than Milos and without the wussiness of Grigor. But I don't see it anymore...maybe a Masters/WTF, but he hasn't yet returned to peak form and the clock is ticking.
Others - Paire, Klizan, Sousa, Steve Johnson, Bedene, Donald Young...None of these guys have a snowball's chance in hell of winning a big title. A weak year of talent.

1990 (28):
Milos Raonic - I suppose he will remain a darkhorse candidate to win Wimbledon, and could do an Ivanisevic, but I don't see him getting by the Big Four, and there are better NextGenners coming up. He'll have to thread the needle with a huge dose of luck or a Cilicesque tournament.
David Goffin - Goffin is an interesting one. He's a bit Ferreresque in that he's got a solid level, but just doesn't have the A-game needed to beat the elites. But he's also had some strong tournaments (e.g. 2017 WTF) and is in a similar category as Kei and Milos in that he could win a Slam if the stars align just right.
Others - Delbonis, Pospisil, Janowicz, Donskoy, Lajovic, etc....See 1989's Others category. Same deal.

1991 (27):
Grigor Dimitrov - There will always be 2017. Seriously, though, he finally broke through and won not one but two big titles, and the WTF to boot. But 2018 looks more like his pre-2017 form. That said, he is only 27 and leads the pack of this generation.
Pablo Carreno Busta - After stagnating for a few years he's come along nicely over the last couple years, even reaching the top 10. But it is hard to imagine him being anything more than a #10-20 type. I consider him a darkhorse for a Masters.
Others - Kuznetsov? Nothing to see here.

1992 (26):
Jack Sock - So much for Skip's assertion that Sock was breaking into elite status. He's a solid player, but I don't even see him as a second tier type (#5-10), more of a good third tier who happened to opportunistically win a Masters. I don't see him seriously competing for a Slam.
Diego Schwartzman - Everyone loves little Diego, but he's kind of a Ferrer Lite...hopefully he can sneak in a Masters, but seems like another third tier ATP 250/500 type.
Bernard Tomic - Should we laugh or cry? Bernard is somewhat tragic. He really belongs in the "Others" category. I'm fairly certain he'll never win much, and would be lucky to sneak in a 250 or 500. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him retire before he's 30.
Others - Kudla, Harrison, Dzumhur, Cecchinato - The latter two could surprise, especially Cecchinato with his nice form at Roland Garros. But no Slam winners here.

1993 (25):
Dominic Thiem - This was the guy who was supposed to take the Clay Crown from Rafa, right? Probably not. Rather, he seems to be bookending Rafa's career with Coria: a very good also ran clay courter who can't compete with the King. Still, he's young enough that he should have some good years after Rafa starts declining, so he's a good candidate to win RG. Nothing else, though. I suppose his nightmare scenario is that Rafa hangs in for another few years, and then some NextGenner emerges as being very good on clay. So while he's got a longish window, it won't last forever.
Others - Vesely, etc...Another weak year.

1994 (24):
Lucas Pouille - Another third tier type. Pouille might dip into the top 10 for spells, ala Goffin and Busta, but like those two he won't be a regular. As a #10-20 type, he'll win his share of 250s and 500s, but he's a darkhorse at best for a Masters.
Others - Jordan Thompson, etc...Another weak group.

1995 (23):
Nick Kyrgios - Angry Nick remains one of the most interesting players to watch on tour. But whereas a couple years ago he looked like he was on the verge of breaking out in a big way, he took a step back last year and has struggled with injury this year. Still, he's so talented that it is hard imagining not winning multiple Masters and even a Slam or two. He's the biggest wildcard on this list.
Kyle Edmund - I'm reminded of Sock in more ways than one. Edmund's breakout might be a bit of a mirage. Yes, he took a step forward, but I think at best he's a "tier 2.5" player. But we'll see.
Others - Nishioka, Djere, Marterer, Jarry, etc...Not much to talk about.

OK, I'll leave it there for now and maybe cover the next group in a later post. Things start getting more interesting in 1996, once we get into the heart of NextGen. As far as definitions go, I generally consider 1989-93 to be LostGen and 1994-98 to be NextGen, but we don't need to rigidly adhere to five-year groupings. Either way, 1994 seems transitional, and 1995-1999 seems to be NextGen, with 2000 being whatever will come next. Just to preview:

1996 (22): Hyeon Chung, Karen Khachanov, Borna Coric, Daniil Medvedev, Thanasi Kokkinakis, Jared Donaldson, etc

1997 (21): Alex Zverev, Andrey Rublev, Taylor Fritz, Jaume Munar, Reilly Opelka, Alexander Bublik, etc

1998 (20): Stefanos Tsitsipas, Francis Tiafoe, Casper Ruud, Michael Mmoh, Stefan Kozlov, Duck Hee Lee, etc

1999 (19): Denis Shapovalov, Alex de Minaur, Corentin Moutet, Miomir Kecmanovic, etc

2000 (18): Felix Auger Aliassime, Nicola Kuhn, Rudolf Molleker, etc

There are now players born in 2001 in the top 1000, but they don't really bear mentioning yet.

That's very interesting. Thank you very much. You are too kind to us though. I'd have thought everyone could either worked out the ages or utilise the calculator on their phone or computer or even used the spreadsheet application on their computer. That might be an interesting idea actually to type all the names, years etc. on a spreadsheet, get it to work it out & then ask it to create a graph.

 

[herios]

I watched the YouTube with the highlights of the Gstaad final today.
Never seen the new winner until today.
Berrettini is someone who will need to be watched carefully, because he got some game. He served 17 aces on clay to RBA!!!
And his FH launches missiles. I think he could be one of the best clay courters in the future, but we shall see.

 

[Moxie]

I watched the YouTube with the highlights of the Gstaad final today.
Never seen the new winner until today.
Berrettini is someone who will need to be watched carefully, because he got some game. He served 17 aces on clay to RBA!!!
And his FH launches missiles. I think he could be one of the best clay courters in the future, but we shall see.

Since you mentioned in the Rankings Thread that you and several of us are getting to be fans of Tsitsipas, I thought it might be time to ask people who they are liking these days, amongst the #NextGen, especially with De Minaur making a final, etc.

In the Race to Milan, Zverev is, once again, lapping the field, but here are the standings:
1. A. Zverev
2. S. Tsitsipas
3. A. de Minaur
4. D. Shapovalov
5. F. Tiafoe
6. A. Rublev
7. T. Fritz
8. J. Munar

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I think of the 8 you mentioned, the four I like are the following along with the reasons.

a. Shapo (he has an extra oomph factor)
b. Tsitsipas (diving volleys)
c. Rublev (crushing forehand)
d. De Minaur (ability to "keep his head")

This is not meant to be an immediate prediction on their success. But, in the long run they may be do better than others.

p.s. If you are talking specifically about Milan, just like last year Sasha won't play there as he will qualify for the regular WTF. May be Chung can get a spot again due to that.

 

[Moxie]

I think of the 8 you mentioned, the four I like are the following along with the reasons.

a. Shapo (he has an extra oomph factor)
b. Tsitsipas (diving volleys)
c. Rublev (crushing forehand)
d. De Minaur (ability to "keep his head")

This is not meant to be an immediate prediction on their success. But, in the long run they may be do better than others.

p.s. If you are talking specifically about Milan, just like last year Sasha won't play there as he will qualify for the regular WTF. May be Chung can get a spot again due to that.

Nice response. I agree that Zverev will probably skip again. Worth remembering that Chung won it last year. I do think we're seeing a surging younger group, which is making things interesting. I know a lot of folks around here have taken against Sasha, but I like him. And Shapo, The Greek, and Tiafoe, my homeboy. Trying to figure out the rest of them, for now.

 

[herios]

I think of the 8 you mentioned, the four I like are the following along with the reasons.

a. Shapo (he has an extra oomph factor)
b. Tsitsipas (diving volleys)
c. Rublev (crushing forehand)
d. De Minaur (ability to "keep his head")

This is not meant to be an immediate prediction on their success. But, in the long run they may be do better than others.

p.s. If you are talking specifically about Milan, just like last year Sasha won't play there as he will qualify for the regular WTF. May be Chung can get a spot again due to that.

Chung has graduated age wise, he is 22, so cannot play in Milan anymore.

 

[herios]

This week we willl see a change of leadership among those born in 1998 or younger.
Tsitsipas will pass Shapovalov in ranking. Stefanos will break into the top 20. He is on par with how Sasha Zverev was breaking through at the same age.

 

[El Dude]

This week we willl see a change of leadership among those born in 1998 or younger.
Tsitsipas will pass Shapovalov in ranking. Stefanos will break into the top 20. He is on par with how Sasha Zverev was breaking through at the same age.

Yep, it is very encouraging and Stefanos definitely seems to have made it a triumvirate of the "best of" Next Gen, along with Zverev and Shapo. The one big difference is that Zverev won his first ATP title at age 19 yr, 5mo and Tsitsipas has not yet won an ATP title and turns 20 in two days.

I'm worried Rublev will stagnate in the 30ish range for awhile, but I think he'll finish the year strong and also reach the top 20.

I was also encouraged by FAA's play in this tournament. Maybe he's going to start moving up soon, hopefully reach the top 100 by year's end.

 

[britbox]

Tsitsipas has huge upside.

 

[herios]

Tsitsipas has huge upside.

Right on. We are witnessing the upside.

 

[Moxie]

4th win over a Top 10 player this week! And he'll play in the final tomorrow, on his 20th birthday.

 

[herios]

Yep, it is very encouraging and Stefanos definitely seems to have made it a triumvirate of the "best of" Next Gen, along with Zverev and Shapo. The one big difference is that Zverev won his first ATP title at age 19 yr, 5mo and Tsitsipas has not yet won an ATP title and turns 20 in two days.

I'm worried Rublev will stagnate in the 30ish range for awhile, but I think he'll finish the year strong and also reach the top 20.

I was also encouraged by FAA's play in this tournament. Maybe he's going to start moving up soon, hopefully reach the top 100 by year's end.

It is understandable why Sasha Zverev won his maiden title at only 19, as he turned pro at 16 and was a regular top 100 by 18 y of age.
Stefanos started the pro tour at 18 and he just broke into the top 100 10 months ago. The Greek phenom had much less opportunities to win a title as a teenager. But he zooms now through the rankings like gangbusters