2018 NextGen Talk

[herios]

I almost put at as a prediction in the crystal ball thread - that he would finish YE1 in 2018, but without a Slam.

Anyhow, excellent post. In my mind he hired the perfect coach to get over that mental hurdle.

Oh yeah, his 4 big titles are equal to Wawrinka and twice everyone else (Dimitrov, Cilic, del Potro and Tsonga have 2 each, Ferrer, Sock, Isner, Berdych, Khachanov 1).


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Let's not go overboard.
Sasha titles are not equal to Wawrika's slams.

 

[El Dude]

Let's not go overboard.
Sasha titles are not equal to Wawrika's slams.

Did I say they were? “Big titles” is a limited metric, but it is a useful perspective as winning one is a good way to signal that one is ready to compete with the big boys. Multiple big titles generally means elite.

EDIT: After re-reading what I wrote, I see why you interpreted it that way - but I think it is pretty clear that I was speaking only numerically, thus the "twice or more everyone else."

Here are the big titles for active players:
53 Federer
51 Nadal, Djokovic
20 Murray
4 Wawrinka, Zverev
2 Tsonga, Cilic, del Potro, Dimitrov
1 Ferrer, Khachanov, Isner, Sock, Robredo, Berdych

 

[mrzz]

^I actually contributed to this confusion, as when I referred to "big titles" I forgot it includes majors (duh!). So Zverev's four (1 YEC + 3 MS) would actually be four times more than almost everyone else, (as most only have 1 MS title).

 

[Moxie]

Did I say they were? “Big titles” is a limited metric, but it is a useful perspective as winning one is a good way to signal that one is ready to compete with the big boys. Multiple big titles generally means elite.

EDIT: After re-reading what I wrote, I see why you interpreted it that way - but I think it is pretty clear that I was speaking only numerically, thus the "twice or more everyone else."

Here are the big titles for active players:
53 Federer
51 Nadal, Djokovic
20 Murray
4 Wawrinka, Zverev
2 Tsonga, Cilic, del Potro, Dimitrov
1 Ferrer, Khachanov, Isner, Sock, Robredo, Berdych

I agree with this. I think we all pay enough attention around here to know what "big titles" means, their relative weight, and who won what. The point is that Zverev is 21, he's ranked #4 (and he's been top 10 for some time) and he's beaten top players to win big titles. And he made a big step up this weekend. Stan is a weird measure, by all accounts, but it did take him until about 27 to win his first big title. Sure the big guns didn't offer much room, but Sasha won't have the same impediments by the time he's, say, 24.

 

[El Dude]

I agree with this. I think we all pay enough attention around here to know what "big titles" means, their relative weight, and who won what. The point is that Zverev is 21, he's ranked #4 (and he's been top 10 for some time) and he's beaten top players to win big titles. And he made a big step up this weekend. Stan is a weird measure, by all accounts, but it did take him until about 27 to win his first big title. Sure the big guns didn't offer much room, but Sasha won't have the same impediments by the time he's, say, 24.

Yep.

Wawrinka is one of the most unusual elite players in Open Era history, both in terms of his resume--late multiple Slam winner, and "top heavy" (3 Slams, 1 Masters)--and also, I think, his combination of very high level and strange degree of inconsistency. I mean, it seems that most players with Stan's peak level either won more Slams or just one or none.

 

[Moxie]

Yep.

Wawrinka is one of the most unusual elite players in Open Era history, both in terms of his resume--late multiple Slam winner, and "top heavy" (3 Slams, 1 Masters)--and also, I think, his combination of very high level and strange degree of inconsistency. I mean, it seems that most players with Stan's peak level either won more Slams or just one or none.

Safin was a little similar in count: 2 majors/4 MS, though he started winning young and stalled. (I will also mention he has the most wins in Bercy - 3 - just because it's so odd, and so was he. :heart: )

 

[El Dude]

Safin was a little similar in count: 2 majors/2 MS, though he started winning young and stalled.

So Stan is like Bizarro Safin

 

[Moxie]

So Stan is like Bizarro Safin

Indeed. And please note that I checked my facts, and changed my post above. Even odder: Safin has the record # of titles in Bercy.

 

[Moxie]

So I guess the point for the Next Gen is that even head-cases (I'm thinking Kyrgios) and inconsistent players with talent can win enough big titles to put them in the pantheon.

 

[britbox]

that's interesting thanks. The podcast tends to provide a more behind the scenes gossip side to things. I'm sure we'll find out more over time

Reading between the lines... I don't think they like each other much at all. I'm liking this potential rivalry. I don't think either are vanilla press-friendly types either. Sascha was pretty scathing about the match in Canada and didn't want to give Stefanos any props...

I'm liking these two and Karen K going forward.

 

[El Dude]

In my mind the two Next Genners with the most impressive rises this year are Tsitsipas and de Minaur. Tsitsipas went from #91 to #15, and is now a legit threat. De Minaur went from #208 to #31 - and even greater rise, although I wonder if he's going to "do a Coric" and consolidate and hang out for a bit in that 30-50 range.

Next year I think we'll see Auger-Aliassime make a big jump. He's at #107 right now and, I think, will burst into the top 50 sometime in the first half of 2019.

Miomir Kecmanovic (age 19, #131) and Alexei Popyrin (19, #148) are two other guys I'm keeping my eye on for a big jump next year. Possibly Rudolf Molleker (18, #194) and Nicola Kuhn (18, #270).

Jack Draper (turns 17 soon, #428) is going to be very interesting to watch.

 

[Moxie]

As to gauging Sasha's relative progress, Tennis.com offers this:

https://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/zverev-big-four-age-comparison-2018

It's not just interesting because it points up what a prodigy Rafa was, either.

 

[atttomole]

Let’s not forget Chung Hyeon who has been hampered by injuries. He could be a threat if he is able to play consistently.

 

[herios]

I agree with this. I think we all pay enough attention around here to know what "big titles" means, their relative weight, and who won what. The point is that Zverev is 21, he's ranked #4 (and he's been top 10 for some time) and he's beaten top players to win big titles. And he made a big step up this weekend. Stan is a weird measure, by all accounts, but it did take him until about 27 to win his first big title. Sure the big guns didn't offer much room, but Sasha won't have the same impediments by the time he's, say, 24.

If things go right, Sasha will start winning slams in a 1-2 years.

 

[herios]

In my mind the two Next Genners with the most impressive rises this year are Tsitsipas and de Minaur. Tsitsipas went from #91 to #15, and is now a legit threat. De Minaur went from #208 to #31 - and even greater rise, although I wonder if he's going to "do a Coric" and consolidate and hang out for a bit in that 30-50 range.

Next year I think we'll see Auger-Aliassime make a big jump. He's at #107 right now and, I think, will burst into the top 50 sometime in the first half of 2019.

Miomir Kecmanovic (age 19, #131) and Alexei Popyrin (19, #148) are two other guys I'm keeping my eye on for a big jump next year. Possibly Rudolf Molleker (18, #194) and Nicola Kuhn (18, #270).

Jack Draper (turns 17 soon, #428) is going to be very interesting to watch.

I always like to stay more cautious, and better be positively surprised .
Not predict much, just want to see some guys holding their ground and start winning events.
Indeed, the biggest jump of all was made by De Minaur, followed by Tsitsipas. I like them both, so I am happy.
About Felix, @El Dude, you expected him to be already on the top 100 a few months back, and it didn't happen. So, I am not that optimistic for next year either, if he will be anywhere in the top 100, that will be fine with me.

 

[El Dude]

I was hoping FAA would finish somewhere in the 50-100 range, but 107 isn't so bad. Not bad for only 16 ATP matches. Once he gets out of "Challenger/Qualification Limbo," he should jump up quite a bit.

Of course with him it all depends upon his health. If he's healthy, I think he'll enter the top 50 in 2019.

 

[herios]

I was hoping FAA would finish somewhere in the 50-100 range, but 107 isn't so bad. Not bad for only 16 ATP matches. Once he gets out of "Challenger/Qualification Limbo," he should jump up quite a bit.

Of course with him it all depends upon his health. If he's healthy, I think he'll enter the top 50 in 2019.

107 ranking is not a definite placement. You keep looking at the LIVE ranking, and that is not accurate.
There are still challengers played this week and Felix has right behind two guys who are playing. Both Sonego and Lorenzi could pass Felix this week.

 

[El Dude]

107 ranking is not a definite placement. You keep looking at the LIVE ranking, and that is not accurate.
There are still challengers played this week and Felix has right behind two guys who are playing. Both Sonego and Lorenzi could pass Felix this week.

You're quibbling over one placement? He's 108 in official rankings. Anyhow, so what if he finishes 110? 107-110 is essentially the same thing.

I'm sure you've seen this, but for those wondering why I'm so high on FAA, check these highlights out:



That's him defeating Lucas Pouille in straight sets. He lost to Daniil Medvedev in three sets in the next round. He also held his own vs. Shapovalov at the US Open before having to retire, tied at one set a piece.

In my mind, FAA is already a top 50 quality player, if not better - he just needs to play more consistently. He's going to rise fast if healthy.

 

[Carol]

Very interesting, where were Federer, Nadal, Novak and Murray at the age of Zverev?

https://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/zverev-big-four-age-comparison-2018

 

[Moxie]

Very interesting, where were Federer, Nadal, Novak and Murray at the age of Zverev?

https://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/zverev-big-four-age-comparison-2018

I posted that earlier, Carol. No one's interested, I guess.