2018 NextGen Talk

[isabelle]

Chung is more and more impressive

 

[herios]

Chung is more and more impressive

Yes he clearly is. I am curious what El Dude will say, after he considered him only a " potential top 20" player, after he won in Milan.

 

[El Dude]

Well, let's see. I liked what I saw at Milan, but saw an upside in the Almagro/Simon vein, not a true elite or even true second tier. But who knows, maybe he'll be a Ferrer or even Michael Chang type.

 

[Busted]

Well, let's see. I liked what I saw at Milan, but saw an upside in the Almagro/Simon vein, not a true elite or even true second tier. But who knows, maybe he'll be a Ferrer or even Michael Chang type.

He's taller than those 2 guys and could improve his serve, so I'm going to go out on a limb - I see him more as an Andy Murray. He could win a couple of Slams and be top 4-5. Let's face it - in 1-2 years the Slams are going to be a wide open free-for-all. Maybe even as soon as this year. There'll be a lot of players with chances to win Slams. I don't really see a guy on the horizon who looks like he could dominate Slams the way Roger/Nadal/Djokovic have.

 

[Denis]

He's taller than those 2 guys and could improve his serve, so I'm going to go out on a limb - I see him more as an Andy Murray. He could win a couple of Slams and be top 4-5. Let's face it - in 1-2 years the Slams are going to be a wide open free-for-all. Maybe even as soon as this year. There'll be a lot of players with chances to win Slams. I don't really see a guy on the horizon who looks like he could dominate Slams the way Roger/Nadal/Djokovic have.

That's the thing. Once the big 4 retires, its open season. What is good for Chung is that he is apparently able to dominate his peers. The Russians, Zverev....

 

[mrzz]

Rublev will spank them all. Mark my words. YEAH.

 

[10isfan]

I think Shapo will emerge as the best of his generation.

 

[Denis]

I think Shapo will emerge as the best of his generation.

I like Shapovalov, he has a nice game. Not sure about his mental abilities though. Chung also beat Shapovalov at that next gen event btw.

 

[El Dude]

Chung is 3 years older than Shapo.

I also put my vote in with @10isfan for Shapo to lead the pack, but it will be a close pack. Should be an interesting era....assuming the Big Four ever retire!

 

[herios]

I bet for a "no dominant player era" following the current era.

 

[El Dude]

Here are the Slam title arrays for the previous few generations (so far):

1999-2003: 0
1994-98: 0
1989-93: 0
1984-88: 16, 12, 3, 3, 1, 1
1979-83: 19, 2, 2, 1, 1
1974-78: 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1
1969-71: 14, 8, 4, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1
1964-68: 7, 6, 6, 1, 1, 1
1959-63: 8, 7, 1, 1
1954-58: 11, 2, 1, 1, 1
1949-53: 8, 4, 1, 1, 1

I don't include any previous generations before we get into pre-Open Era players.

Anyhow, what is interesting to me is that the arrays are all pretty different. You can also see how you often get a weak gen (e.g. 74-78) following a strong one (69-83).

In this formulation, Shapovalov is actually of the generation after NextGen.

So 1989-93 is almost certainly going to be the weakest generation in Open Era history, which should make the next two generations stronger. I could see something like:

1999-2003: 12, 10, 2, 1, 1
1994-98: 5, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1
1989-93: 2, 1, 1

Just totally made up, but you get the point.

 

[sid]

Kyle Edmund into SF.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Kyle Edmund into SF.

It is amazing how much Andy's absence improves Brit's prospects.

 

[Denis]

Chung opened a twitter account today.

https://twitter.com/hyeonchung

In addition to following Novak Djokovic first (his idol), interestingly he started following Denis Shapovalov and Naomi Osaka. The guy likes the exact same players as I do.

 

[AnonymousFan]

I'm most impressed by Shapovalov's game!

 

[El Dude]

For the fun of it. Here are NextGen results for the 2018 AO vs. 2017 AO (defining NextGen as born 1994 or later):

2017 AO
3R: Zverev,
2R: Rublev, de Minaur, Bublik, Rubin, Kyrgios, Khachanov, Tiafoe, Nishioka, Escobedo, Chung, Edmund

2018 AO
SF: Chung, Edmund
4R: Kyrgios
3R: Zverev, Rublev
2R: Ruud, McDonald, Shapovalov, Nishioka, Medvedev, Khachanov, Sonego

So that's 13 match wins in 2017 vs. 24 in 2018 - quite a difference. My guess is that next year we see more in the middle rounds - 3R, 4R, QF - and maybe not as good results as two semifinalists.

 

[herios]

For the fun of it. Here are NextGen results for the 2018 AO vs. 2017 AO (defining NextGen as born 1994 or later):

2017 AO
3R: Zverev,
2R: Rublev, de Minaur, Bublik, Rubin, Kyrgios, Khachanov, Tiafoe, Nishioka, Escobedo, Chung, Edmund

2018 AO
SF: Chung, Edmund
4R: Kyrgios
3R: Zverev, Rublev
2R: Ruud, McDonald, Shapovalov, Nishioka, Medvedev, Khachanov, Sonego

So that's 13 match wins in 2017 vs. 24 in 2018 - quite a difference. My guess is that next year we see more in the middle rounds - 3R, 4R, QF - and maybe not as good results as two semifinalists.

You forgot Marterer who reached 3R this year. He is born in 1995.

 

[Andy22]

By "next gen" I think of Dominic Thiem and younger. Drepending upon how you cut the cake, Thiem--born in September of 1993--could be either LostGen or NextGen, but either way is transitional.

This thread is to discuss those players. For reference, here are the highest ranked players by years 1993 to 2000 (with Jan 1 ages in parentheses), with rankings as of December 25:

1993 (24): Thiem 5, Vesely 62, Daniel 99, Baena 106, Fratangelo 110, Otte 131
1994 (23): Pouille 18, Thompson 94, Monteiro 124, Bourgue 160
1995 (22): Kyrgios 21, Edmund 50, Djere 88, Marterer 90, Jarry 113, Norrie 114
1996 (21): Khachanov 45, Coric 48, Donaldson 54, Chung 58, Medvedev 65, Escobedo 120, Halys 129, Berretini 131, E Ymer 142, Ofner 143....Kokkinakis 209
1997 (20): Zverev 4, Rublev 39, Fritz 104, Bublik 117, Santillan 146, Paul 152, Kwon 168
1998 (19): Tiafoe 79, Tsitsipas 91, Ruud 139, Kozlov 167, Mmoh 175, Lee 195
1999 (18): Shapovalov 51, Moutet 155, Kecmanov 207, De Minaur 208
2000 (17): Felix Auger Aliassime 162, Nicola Kuhn 242, Molleker 566

The weakeness of 1993-95 (not to mention 1992) in a way nicely separates Lost Gen and NextGen with this weird transitional phase with only a few standouts. A lot of names on there who are unlikely to do much. For instance, Fratangelo and Ymer have been handing out in the 100-200 range for years now and have barely sniffed the top 100. But then you can look at those players who are ranked very highly for their age, in particular Aliassime (youngest player in the top 200 since Rafa Nadal!), Shapovalov, and Zverev. But in terms of rank by age, Kuhn and Moutet bear watching.

Some predictions for 2018:
*Dominic Thiem wins a clay Masters, but also maxes out as a #4-8ish player ala Berdych/Tsonga.
*Alexander Zverev goes deeper into Slams but doesn't repeat his two Masters titles of 2017, but consolidates in the top 5. He has a good year but some see it as somewhat disappointing as it isn't markedly better than 2017 (but he has another breakthrough in 2019 when he wins his first Slam and reaches #1).
*Nick Kyrgios has a breakthrough year and wins a big title or two, possibly a Slam, but is also erratic. He remains one of the most entertaining players on tour.
*Andrey Rublev storms up the rankings and is in the top 20 by clay season, but then plateaus for the rest of the year; a darkhorse candidate for a Masters title.
*Frances Tiafoe and Stefanos Tsitsipas both continue to rise, and both win their first titles. They reach the 21-40 range by year's end, but don't breach the top 20 until 2019.
*Denis Shapovalov continues to impress but 2018 is more about consolidating. He probably doesn't reach the top 30, but wins his first lower level title.
*Felix Auger Aliassime storms the top 100 and finishes the year in the top 50.
*Corentin Moutet and Nicola Kuhn become the new names to watch, both rising significantly in the rankings, Moutet finishing in the mid top 100 and Kuhn close to the top 100.

By "next gen" I think of Dominic Thiem and younger. Drepending upon how you cut the cake, Thiem--born in September of 1993--could be either LostGen or NextGen, but either way is transitional.

This thread is to discuss those players. For reference, here are the highest ranked players by years 1993 to 2000 (with Jan 1 ages in parentheses), with rankings as of December 25:

1993 (24): Thiem 5, Vesely 62, Daniel 99, Baena 106, Fratangelo 110, Otte 131
1994 (23): Pouille 18, Thompson 94, Monteiro 124, Bourgue 160
1995 (22): Kyrgios 21, Edmund 50, Djere 88, Marterer 90, Jarry 113, Norrie 114
1996 (21): Khachanov 45, Coric 48, Donaldson 54, Chung 58, Medvedev 65, Escobedo 120, Halys 129, Berretini 131, E Ymer 142, Ofner 143....Kokkinakis 209
1997 (20): Zverev 4, Rublev 39, Fritz 104, Bublik 117, Santillan 146, Paul 152, Kwon 168
1998 (19): Tiafoe 79, Tsitsipas 91, Ruud 139, Kozlov 167, Mmoh 175, Lee 195
1999 (18): Shapovalov 51, Moutet 155, Kecmanov 207, De Minaur 208
2000 (17): Felix Auger Aliassime 162, Nicola Kuhn 242, Molleker 566

The weakeness of 1993-95 (not to mention 1992) in a way nicely separates Lost Gen and NextGen with this weird transitional phase with only a few standouts. A lot of names on there who are unlikely to do much. For instance, Fratangelo and Ymer have been handing out in the 100-200 range for years now and have barely sniffed the top 100. But then you can look at those players who are ranked very highly for their age, in particular Aliassime (youngest player in the top 200 since Rafa Nadal!), Shapovalov, and Zverev. But in terms of rank by age, Kuhn and Moutet bear watching.

Some predictions for 2018:
*Dominic Thiem wins a clay Masters, but also maxes out as a #4-8ish player ala Berdych/Tsonga.
*Alexander Zverev goes deeper into Slams but doesn't repeat his two Masters titles of 2017, but consolidates in the top 5. He has a good year but some see it as somewhat disappointing as it isn't markedly better than 2017 (but he has another breakthrough in 2019 when he wins his first Slam and reaches #1).
*Nick Kyrgios has a breakthrough year and wins a big title or two, possibly a Slam, but is also erratic. He remains one of the most entertaining players on tour.
*Andrey Rublev storms up the rankings and is in the top 20 by clay season, but then plateaus for the rest of the year; a darkhorse candidate for a Masters title.
*Frances Tiafoe and Stefanos Tsitsipas both continue to rise, and both win their first titles. They reach the 21-40 range by year's end, but don't breach the top 20 until 2019.
*Denis Shapovalov continues to impress but 2018 is more about consolidating. He probably doesn't reach the top 30, but wins his first lower level title.
*Felix Auger Aliassime storms the top 100 and finishes the year in the top 50.
*Corentin Moutet and Nicola Kuhn become the new names to watch, both rising significantly in the rankings, Moutet finishing in the mid top 100 and Kuhn close to the top 100.

Feel like thiem is most likely to win a slam in the next two seasons

 

[herios]

Feel like thiem is most likely to win a slam in the next two seasons

If that would happen it would be at the expense of Nadal, because aside RG, Thiem ain't winning any slams.

 

[Andy22]

If that would happen it would be at the expense of Nadal, because aside RG, Thiem ain't winning any slams.

Well yeah that's the only one Them can win.but we are looking at the next king of clay.thiem