2018 NextGen Talk

[mrzz]

Actually it was here in Brazil, so I happened to see both matches he won because they were against Brazilian players (not that I follow them that closely, but being the tournament here, with TV coverage, I watched). I knew the two guys, and both lost because they got extremely tight playing at home -- they played well worst than their average. So I knew Ruud had a bit of luck in going that far at that precise tournament.

 

[Denis]

Actually it was here in Brazil, so I happened to see both matches he won because they were against Brazilian players (not that I follow them that closely, but being the tournament here, with TV coverage, I watched). I knew the two guys, and both lost because they got extremely tight playing at home -- they played well worst than their average. So I knew Ruud had a bit of luck in going that far at that precise tournament.

Ah yes, that's right, Brazil. Thanks for the background. It explains why he didnt do much after that. Good win for him today tho.

 

[El Dude]

Ruud was the flavor of the month early last year, but then kind of stagnated. Hopefully he can take a big step forward.

 

[Moxie]

Not sure where to put this, but the commies on TC last night talked about the "Lost Generation." They may have picked it up before yesterday, but they are years late to the party. I'm going to give @El Dude credit for coining it. Am I wrong?

 

[El Dude]

As far as I know you are correct. I didn't get it from anywhere and I think I first used it 2-3 years ago.

 

[kskate2]

AP said awhile back that a couple of commmies read our posts.

 

[Moxie]

As far as I know you are correct. I didn't get it from anywhere and I think I first used it 2-3 years ago.

If feel confident it's your coinage, then.

AP said awhile back that a couple of commmies read our posts.

I've been sure of it since tennis.com. Even more in the last few years. Why wouldn't they, especially their producers. We have good stats and intelligent analysis and debate over them. That's what commentators make their money on...fed by their producers.

 

[herios]

Australian Open 1R NextGen Matches

Borna Coric vs. John Millman
Andrey Rublev vs. David Ferrer
Stefano Tsitsipas vs. Denis Shapovalov
Nick Kyrgios vs. Rogerio Dutra-Silva
Lucas Pouille vs. Qualifier
Corentin Moutet vs. Andreas Seppi
Jared Donaldson vs. Alberto Ramos-Vinolas
Hyeon Chung vs. Mischa Zverev
Thanasi Kokkinakis vs. Daniil Medvedev
Alexander Zverev vs. Tomas Fabbiano
Alex de Minaur vs. Tomas Berdych
Karen Khachanov vs. Qualifier
Frances Tiafoe vs. Juan Martin del Potro

I think I got them all, except for possible qualifiers that are still to be determined. That's a pretty deep field of Next Genners - more than any previous Slam, I would guess.

De Minaur has played well recently and I'm looking forward to seeing what Moutet will do this year. I'd like to see Medvedev take a big jump forward - he seems to be stagnating a bit. Poor Tiafoe - that's a rough 1R opponent.

You missed some. Edmund and Marterer, who both made R3 and are born in 1995.

 

[Denis]

Chung reached round 3 by beating Medvedev. Now gets to Zverev, another next gen player. I hope he beats Z. but I guess its not too likely.

Edit: actually h2h is 1-0 Chung with a pretty deciding scoreline for Chung 6-1 6-4 on clay. So a bit stoked for this one!

 

[El Dude]

Here's an interesting tidbit. Some of you might remember that I figured out certain "benchmarks of greatness" that all 6+ Slam winners reached in Open Era history. Alex Zverev was on course with every ranking benchmark, title, and big title. But he just missed his first one: reaching a Slam QF at age 20. He'll be 21 at the next Slam, Roland Garros.

Now benchmarks can and do change; Stan Wawrinka changed the benchmarks for multi-Slam winners by winning his first at age 28. But it does put a tiny glimmer of doubt on whether Zverev will actually become a great player or not. He might end up more being in the almost-great range of 3-5 Slam winners, like Kuerten, Murray, Courier, Vilas, etc.

 

[Denis]

Here's an interesting tidbit. Some of you might remember that I figured out certain "benchmarks of greatness" that all 6+ Slam winners reached in Open Era history. Alex Zverev was on course with every ranking benchmark, title, and big title. But he just missed his first one: reaching a Slam QF at age 20. He'll be 21 at the next Slam, Roland Garros.

Now benchmarks can and do change; Stan Wawrinka changed the benchmarks for multi-Slam winners by winning his first at age 28. But it does put a tiny glimmer of doubt on whether Zverev will actually become a great player or not. He might end up more being in the almost-great range of 3-5 Slam winners, like Kuerten, Murray, Courier, Vilas, etc.

I really can’t see Z winning a slam yet. Not sure he ever will. I know Cilic won a slam, but it generally requires a bit of an X factor that I have not seen in him. He’s just ticking some statistics boxes.

 

[britbox]

If feel confident it's your coinage, then.


I've been sure of it since tennis.com. Even more in the last few years. Why wouldn't they, especially their producers. We have good stats and intelligent analysis and debate over them. That's what commentators make their money on...fed by their producers.

Bodo definitely read the comments on the old tennis.com boards. I think he even used one of Clay Death's phrases in an article once... (not "Pray for death' but some other... )

 

[Denis]

Bodo definitely read the comments on the old tennis.com boards. I think he even used one of Clay Death's phrases in an article once... (not "Pray for death' but some other... )

Never got why they shut down the boards, it was a nice complement to their site.

 

[El Dude]

I really can’t see Z winning a slam yet. Not sure he ever will. I know Cilic won a slam, but it generally requires a bit of an X factor that I have not seen in him. He’s just ticking some statistics boxes.

I don't think he'll win a Slam in 2018, as I said in the OP. I think he'll consolidate in the top 5-10, though, and be a more consistent player than Cilic, and thus get more opportunities.

He's also still only 20, so has room to grow and, I think, will win multiple Slams. I think the question is more whether he is really good and wins 2-4, or if he is a lesser great and wins 5-8.

 

[Denis]

I don't think he'll win a Slam in 2018, as I said in the OP. I think he'll consolidate in the top 5-10, though, and be a more consistent player than Cilic, and thus get more opportunities.

He's also still only 20, so has room to grow and, I think, will win multiple Slams. I think the question is more whether he is really good and wins 2-4, or if he is a lesser great and wins 5-8.

Z has a killer game, no doubt. And as you say only 20. Tennis is such a mental and physical game too though, and he really needs to start delivering at the slams where those two factors really come into play.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

1. We should not be talking about Zverev winning slams when he is yet to reach the QF of one.
2. At the moment, he does not seem to have the stamina necessary for grueling five set matches.
This may and most probably will change as he grows up, but we need to see it happen first.
3. While he has a steady baseline game, he does not seem to have an undescribable
X factor of a slam champ. Shap has that X factor though, even though he has achieved
much less in career so far.

 

[Moxie]

One thing that really disappointed me about Zverev was the way he played in the 5th. Esp. as to @GameSetAndMath 's #2 above, I'll mention again that I caught the end of AZ v. Kohlschreiber in person at the USO 2015, when Sasha was 18, and it was an extremely hot and humid day. Afternoon match, and Zverev lost 4-6 in the 5th. He was that close then, and Kohly is a wiley veteran. Nothing against Chung, who played great, but the biggest difference I can imagine is not fitness, 2 years later, but weight of expectation, perhaps? Which is also not a great thing. He's also played Rafa better in 5 sets. OK, he was deeper into the tournament v. Chung, so it could be fitness, but it was a poor showing for him in the 5th. There is something he's got to get going better at the Slams.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I am not sure whether Sasha is eligible for Milan this year (as it is under 21 tourney and I don't know whether one should be under 21 at the beginning of year or at the time of event). If he is eligible for Milan and he does not make it to regular WTF, he will play this year there which will be kind of odd.

p.s. He will definitely make it to MIlan by ranking points, if he is eligible to compete there.

 

[Moxie]

I wanted to share an anecdote from the commentators yesterday about Chung, in case anyone missed it. I think this is a good place to put it. In 2015, playing in the Asian games, apparently he was playing at one point for a medal, which would determine whether or not he'd have to do 2 years of military service. He won the medal, and therefore escaped military service, and gave himself 2 years in his career he would have missed. Point being: the guy has played for more on the line than most. I suppose that would account for some of his composure.

 

[Ricardo]

Instead of just slicing down Alex, it should be pointed out that Chung played absolute awesome to get him.