2018 Men's SF: Chung - Federer

[MartyB]

I'm of the belief that Fed played well here so far not great because he didn't need to. He played within himself and when the time arose he clamped down on the match and won each of his matches in straight sets. One of the greatest attributes that Fed has is his ability to adapt his style of play against any opponent and make it very uncomfortable for them. In this case the rallies will be much shorter, Fed's serve if on and it will be will make it awfully difficult for the youngster and Fed's ROS will wear away at him I believe and Fed will approach the net on his terms and win a good % of them. I'm not going to predict it will be clinical but Fed should take this at a minimum of 4 sets if not 3.

 

[Busted]

I'm taking Roger in 3 close sets...cuz my nerves can't take more than that. Thankfully I'll be asleep and will only see the score in the morning...

 

[Busted]

As much as Chung is playing good, I don't see him winning against Fed on his first match and that too at a big stage.
Hey, after all Fed has not lost a set yet; may be he will maintain that streak. Fed in three.

I know people quibble when this is said, but...really...it's all about how Roger plays. Does he take it too the kid? He was way to passive against Tiafoe at the US Open because he it was his first match back after his back injury. He's not injured now and he said he saw the Chung/Djokovic match so he knows the kid defends really well. I think he's probably going to have to do what he does to Sascha - mix up the spins, hit short slices, drop shots, move Chung side to side - just generally screw up his rhythm and take him out of his comfort zone. Like most of the young players Chung only seems to know one thing, especially when he's down - hit it hard and hit it harder. That could lead to a lot of UEs.

 

[Busted]

I think you misunderstand me. I'm talking about this Novak that got taken out by Chung. Do you think he would have beaten Roger here? I don't...

I saw half of the match - and I concur. Novak kinda sucked...especially his serve...and his FH looked wonky to me...

 

[Denis]

I know people quibble when this is said, but...really...it's all about how Roger plays. Does he take it too the kid? He was way to passive against Tiafoe at the US Open because he it was his first match back after his back injury. He's not injured now and he said he saw the Chung/Djokovic match so he knows the kid defends really well. I think he's probably going to have to do what he does to Sascha - mix up the spins, hit short slices, drop shots, move Chung side to side - just generally screw up his rhythm and take him out of his comfort zone. Like most of the young players Chung only seems to know one thing, especially when he's down - hit it hard and hit it harder. That could lead to a lot of UEs.

This will be quite effective indeed.

 

[Busted]

He has a winning h2h now though.

And? In 2015 Roger beat him 3 times when Nole only lost 6 matches the entire year. Yes, Nole won more (5) and the big matches, but with his injury now being his elbow he was making a ton of UEs in every match and his serve was way off. I think that would have been a very winnable matchup for Roger - especially since the court is playing fast. If you look at their H2H on fast hard courts - Cincy, Dubai, Shanghai - Roger's got the edge. It's the slower hard courts where Djokovic has the advantage.

 

[shawnbm]

Although I would like to see Roger get to the final to battle out of the Croatian or the Briton, something tells me the quarry and is going to push them to five sets and outlast him. I believe this young man has arrived and beating Federer will be the verification of that.

 

[El Dude]

The only worry I have is that Roger's dominance partly relies upon him knowing the patterns of his opponent; he seems to lose first matches to players at a rather alarming rate.

That said, this is a Slam SF. No way he loses this to Chung. Three sets.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

This is a grand slam semi. Roger will step on that court to play his best tennis. And, it will be like "woah". I am not underestimating the Korean but only anticipating a big match masterclass from Roger.

 

[DarthFed]

The only worry I have is that Roger's dominance partly relies upon him knowing the patterns of his opponent; he seems to lose first matches to players at a rather alarming rate.

That said, this is a Slam SF. No way he loses this to Chung. Three sets.

I get that it's tricky when you don't know the opponent well. Obviously Chung will be familiar with how Roger plays but it's a different ballgame when he plays him.

I'm also not sure Roger has done that poorly his first time against new players. Who are you thinking of in the past few years? Last year he lost to Donskoy but that was it since at least 2015.

 

[El Dude]

I wasn't particularly thinking of recent matches, but he lost his first match vs. Andy, Rafa, and Berdych.

I thought he lost his first to Sascha, but he didn't.

 

[DarthFed]

^ If we are talking notable players the last one I remember who beat Fed in their first match was Kyrgios in Madrid 2015, and that was 3 tiebreaks. Nadal did too way back in 2004 as did Berd. Not sure who else, I guess the point is Roger usually does pretty well against guys the first time he plays them.

 

[DarthFed]

I wasn't particularly thinking of recent matches, but he lost his first match vs. Andy, Rafa, and Berdych.

I thought he lost his first to Sascha, but he didn't.

He beat Murray in his first match, 2005 Tokyo I think

 

[Federberg]

I get that it's tricky when you don't know the opponent well. Obviously Chung will be familiar with how Roger plays but it's a different ballgame when he plays him.

I'm also not sure Roger has done that poorly his first time against new players. Who are you thinking of in the past few years? Last year he lost to Donskoy but that was it since at least 2015.

He may well have lost to some of the better young guys in his first matches against them, but those have usually been in first or second rounds of 250s or 500s. It's a whole other thing first time in a slam semi final

 

[El Dude]

Yeah, not too worried. But you never know...

I guess worst case scenario and we get to see our first true NextGenner in a Slam final...possibly two, if Edmund wins.

 

[britbox]

I'm of the belief that Fed played well here so far not great because he didn't need to. He played within himself and when the time arose he clamped down on the match and won each of his matches in straight sets. One of the greatest attributes that Fed has is his ability to adapt his style of play against any opponent and make it very uncomfortable for them. In this case the rallies will be much shorter, Fed's serve if on and it will be will make it awfully difficult for the youngster and Fed's ROS will wear away at him I believe and Fed will approach the net on his terms and win a good % of them. I'm not going to predict it will be clinical but Fed should take this at a minimum of 4 sets if not 3.

Considering Fed's serve was pretty off against Berd it was a good performance on the ground. If he serves well against Chung, it's going to be a tough proposition for the youngster.

 

[El Dude]

The problem for Chung is that Roger has so many different ways he can win - he just has a full arsenal, and unless he can't access most of it, he'll find a way to win, one way or another.

Other great players like Novak and Rafa found ways to neutralize Roger's arsenal, or at least a good portion of it. I don't see how Chung can do that. Not yet, at least.

It would definitely be one of the biggest upsets in Open Era history, at least on the SF of a Slam level.

 

[Moxie]

I know people quibble when this is said, but...really...it's all about how Roger plays. Does he take it too the kid? He was way to passive against Tiafoe at the US Open because he it was his first match back after his back injury. He's not injured now and he said he saw the Chung/Djokovic match so he knows the kid defends really well. I think he's probably going to have to do what he does to Sascha - mix up the spins, hit short slices, drop shots, move Chung side to side - just generally screw up his rhythm and take him out of his comfort zone. Like most of the young players Chung only seems to know one thing, especially when he's down - hit it hard and hit it harder. That could lead to a lot of UEs.

While this is a very good analysis, I think you undersell Chung just a bit with your last. I don't think he's a mere ball-basher.

I'm taking Roger in 3 close sets...cuz my nerves can't take more than that. Thankfully I'll be asleep and will only see the score in the morning...

If you're asleep, your nerves won't even know.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

I think playing someone for the first time on the GS SF stage is crazy. Absolutely crazy.

 

[Busted]

The problem for Chung is that Roger has so many different ways he can win - he just has a full arsenal, and unless he can't access most of it, he'll find a way to win, one way or another.

Other great players like Novak and Rafa found ways to neutralize Roger's arsenal, or at least a good portion of it. I don't see how Chung can do that. Not yet, at least.

It would definitely be one of the biggest upsets in Open Era history, at least on the SF of a Slam level.

I was thinking about Roger's "arsenal" last night when I watched his press conference after the Berdych match. A reporter asked him how he was going to play Chung and he said he didn't know yet, just that he would be aggressive. How many players get asked that question? "How are you going to play so-and-so?" As far as I can tell - only Roger gets asked this question because only Roger has half a dozen ways to adapt his game. You play anybody else and you know exactly what you're going to get. Even Kyrgios, who has a lot of variety, plays the same way ever match regardless of who he's playing.