2018 Men's SF: Chung - Federer

[Denis]

Lol! Rod Laver? Why are you bringing him up? Roger's here, playing. Moving around like an 18yr old. I just don't think it's a relevant part of the discussion for a guy who is in the semi-final without dropping a set

In theory age is relevant hence me responding to your point 'age is not a factor'. I agree though that Fed looks quite good here.

 

[britbox]

Question: do you Feddies think Chung is a bigger challenge than Cilic?

Yep. I think there is that unknown factor coupled with the point that Fed and Chung have never played. I like Chung and he's going to be a mover and shaker going forward, but at this stage of his career, I think Roger takes him out.

 

[Federberg]

In theory age is relevant hence me responding to your point 'age is not a factor'. I agree though that Fed looks quite good here.

oh I get you. Yes of course in theory. But in practice. This Roger? Right now? Nah...

 

[DarthFed]

Have you seen Rod Laver recently? Not sure he is still in his prime.

I think it's a factor with Roger if it goes to five sets.

Age would be more of a factor if Roger had played a lot coming into this semi but he will be coming in with a full tank. That doesn't mean he can't get worn down in a long match but chances are he can go 5 and still be pretty decent in the 5th unless Chung makes him move a lot.

 

[DarthFed]

Difficult to say really. The serve was not good, and he was an ufe machine. But Fed is a different player than Chung. I'll admit though that it is difficult to see and it would have been hard.

Not difficult to see at all, Nole clearly has a long ways to go. It's fine being a little biased but Roger would've decked him in the semis at this point.

Also Nole has always struggled with Roger on fast hard courts, he is 0-3 in Cincy, something like 1-3 in Dubai, 0-2 in Shanghai, and 3-3 in USO and I'm not even sure the last one counts as a fast hard court with how much the courts are slowing down there. I know he's won 3 straight at USO but two were miracles/chokes and even USO 2015 was pretty tight. He'd have had to have been 100% back to where he was and even that might not have been enough.

 

[DarthFed]

Chung will need to prove himself. I am sure odds are low for Chung beating Fed here with the bookies. I'd like to see it though.

Edit: just checked: bookies are giving Fed 1/5, Chung 4. That's tough. Edmund has better odds against Cilic than Chung against Fed.

I'm actually surprised it's that high for Chung. They are showing him plenty of respect, if it was his opponent today you'd have odds probably at 10/1. If it is Edmund and Fed in the finals I'd expect odds at about 8/1 or something around there. Cilic Fed would probably be about 3.5/1 if I had to guess.

 

[Denis]

I'm actually surprised it's that high for Chung. They are showing him plenty of respect, if it was his opponent today you'd have odds probably at 10/1. If it is Edumund and Fed in the finals I'd expect odds at about 8/1 or something around there.

Yeah Edmund would get totally smoked by Fed. Absolutely no competition there.

The one thing I am holding on to (and I am close to conceding that Chung does not stand a chance), is that the guy puts up a fight and retrieves like Djokovic/Nadal. This might get to Fed's head as it has been in the past with Nadal at least.

 

[Federberg]

Yeah Edmund would get totally smoked by Fed. Absolutely no competition there.

The one thing I am holding on to (and I am close to conceding that Chung does not stand a chance), is that the guy puts up a fight and retrieves like Djokovic/Nadal. This might get to Fed's head as it has been in the past with Nadal at least.

I hear you. But my take on the Fedal and FedDjok match ups is that it's not been the retrieving that's the been the problem. It's the fact that Roger was so one sided against them. Without being able to close points consistently on the back hand wing he was forced to take ridiculous positions on the court and as a result put himself in very low percentage situations where he really had to land a knock out punch. This is why there's been such a dramatic turnaround against Rafa. Would love to see Roger against Novak to test my theory by the way.... So I'm really not fussed about Chung's retrieval skills. I'm more focused on whether he's a top calibre returner. He'll need to be otherwise this could be routine

 

[DarthFed]

I'm excited for the match @Denis I think the courts are quite clearly playing fast (it's always a debate at some level) and that makes things tougher for Chung and really just about any Federer opponent. But as you said he has great wheels and he comes in with belief, also helps that today was a straight setter so he should be fine on energy too. I know the match with Nole was 3 sets too but it went 3.5 hours so that doesn't really count!

 

[atttomole]

Chung does not easily go away, and that could annoy Federer. The young man is relentless. He looks a bit like Nadal/Djokovic with his physicality. Which means that Federer has to serve well if he wants to win the match quickly. I pick Federer in 4, but he could lose if it goes to 5.

 

[isabelle]

I'll root for Chung, don't know if my support'll be enought to win, hope so, keep my fingers crossed

 

[Ricardo]

A few additional considerations:

Favorable to Chung:
- Fed is older;
- Novak has taken Fed out at the USO as well, multiple times

Not so favorable to Chung:
- his serve is not as good as Novak's, he really needs to work on that;
- his forehand is not that great, I remember Novak really taking it to Fed in the cc forehand exchanges, I have to see Chung doing that;

Exactly, Chungs serve and fh are obviously not as good as Djokers fundamentally but he’s done well so far given what he got. However Novak’s win over Fed is actually not someone outplaying another but Fed not closing out match points......in both matches. Besides comparisons made on different surfaces would not be too meaningful.

 

[Ricardo]

Also add that Chung beat Novak playing the same type of game, while Fed would throw very different things at him so I have to see it to believe that he can find solution for that.

 

[Denis]

Also add that Chung beat Novak playing the same type of game, while Fed would throw very different things at him so I have to see it to believe that he can find solution for that.

Fair point. He did beat the Zverevs though, so it's not like he would implode if another style is thrown at him.

 

[Federberg]

Fair point. He did beat the Zverevs though, so it's not like he would implode if another style is thrown at him.

Roger's more of a fusion of the two Zverev's at the same time, and gawd knows how many other attributes. It's different gravy... Anyway, it's going to be a treat to watch

 

[mrzz]

You people are nuts. I give five games to Chung.

 

[Denis]

You people are nuts. I give five games to Chung.

I think that's the consensus here actually. With the exception of me and isabelle.

 

[Federberg]

wow! If you ever wanted to understand what Roger means to the sport. Apparently even before his match against Berdych was over, tickets for his semi were being priced at 5x the Cilic-Edmunds final. This sport will be in trouble when he goes

 

[Denis]

wow! If you ever wanted to understand what Roger means to the sport. Apparently even before his match against Berdych was over, tickets for his semi were being priced at 5x the Cilic-Edmunds final. This sport will be in trouble when he goes

Perhaps it was because South Korea is going crazy about Chung and they are all flying in. Just saying.

 

[Federberg]

Perhaps it was because South Korea is going crazy about Chung and they are all flying in. Just saying.

hahaha! maybe, maybe...