2018 Australian Open - Early Chatter

[isabelle]

AO seems in ruins before it starts, sad to see all those injured players

 

[Moxie]

Looking grim for the AO and doesn't paint a great outlook for the year. This is the year of opportunity for the young guns step up.

"Grim" seems a bit strong. The tournament won't have as many marquee players, (including Serena.) It could be the land of opportunity for younger players, as you say, who also seem to be more ready to step up than they were at the USO, which could have been an opening, and gets maligned by some, because it wasn't. Local boy Kyrgios seems fit, and he'll be a story. If Djokovic plays, I don't expect him to go too deep, but that will be its own drama. Federer surely looks ready, and I'm hoping that Nadal's caution pays off. Dimitrov has been getting closer and closer there, and either he or Nick will be coming off a title in Brisbane. As to the outlook for the year: it seems that the indicators for wild and wooly, as predicted by @El Dude and others just seems to be coming true earlier than even expected.

 

[Moxie]

AO seems in ruins before it starts, sad to see all those injured players

While I don't agree that the AO is "in ruins," it's a shame to see so many injuries lingering from last year, especially in players that cut last year short. When you look at the rankings, it's barely recognizable from this time last year.

 

[Busted]

AO seems in ruins before it starts, sad to see all those injured players

It's the US Open all over again...

 

[Busted]

Tomic denied wildcard for AO.

https://goo.gl/PQ7P5k

Good for Tennis Australia. Let the brat earn his keep the hard way.

Good. He needs to go through the qualies and earn his way back into the draws just like every other low-ranked player.

 

[Busted]

Looking grim for the AO and doesn't paint a great outlook for the year. This is the year of opportunity for the young guns step up.

I think it's more of an opportunity for the "lost generation" to step up. Guys like Dimitrov, Goffin, Sock...even DelPo and Cilic. The door is wide open. They can all hope someone else takes out Federer or Nadal - and Djokovic if he plays - and they only have to beat 1 of the 2 or 3 to win the title. Although, yes, the same is true of the #NextGen guys but the window is closing a lot faster for the 25-29 year-olds. Notice I'm not including guys like Tsonga & Berdych? Stick a fork in those guys......

 

[Moxie]

I think it's more of an opportunity for the "lost generation" to step up. Guys like Dimitrov, Goffin, Sock...even DelPo and Cilic. The door is wide open. They can all hope someone else takes out Federer or Nadal - and Djokovic if he plays - and they only have to beat 1 of the 2 or 3 to win the title. Although, yes, the same is true of the #NextGen guys but the window is closing a lot faster for the 25-29 year-olds. Notice I'm not including guys like Tsonga & Berdych? Stick a fork in those guys......

Not to speak for @britbox, but he did say "young guns," not specifically NextGen. I think Dimitrov has a solid shot, as I mentioned above. However, of the "lost generation" Nishikori isn't playing and Raonic doesn't seem to be in great shape. Sock is looking pretty good, too, and Goffin. But I'm interested in your notion that someone else has to take out the top guys. You've cut your eyes at Rafa winning the USO without sufficient competition. Wouldn't you prefer that the winner of the AO did it the hard way and beat the top players? Or at least the ones in front of him?

 

[Moxie]

It's the US Open all over again...

I made a case (above) why it isn't the USO all over again. Maybe it will be the Fedal show again, and everyone else comes up with nothing but fail, but I do think things look a bit different, even just 6 months later. We shall see, I guess, but I'm still hoping for some exciting turns of events.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

I think in spite of the withdrawal of players, AO is going to have an intriguing field. The contenders aren't going to have it easy. As you guys said, young turks and lost generation guys are really getting better and better. So, I'd think it's Fedal vs. The field. But, is Rafa ready? Any news?

 

[Moxie]

I think in spite of the withdrawal of players, AO is going to have an intriguing field. The contenders aren't going to have it easy. As you guys said, young turks and lost generation guys are really getting better and better. So, I'd think it's Fedal vs. The field. But, is Rafa ready? Any news?

We'll see how Rafa does in this fast tennis thing they're doing next week. It may not matter much, unless his knee proves not viable. Otherwise, we wait.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

See this article what works for Federer does not necessarily work for everyone - or anyone - else on tennis.com.

 

[El Dude]

The very top is weaker now with Murray and Stan out and big concerns about Novak and small concerns around Nadal, and always Roger's age, but I think there's an argument that the second tier is much stronger than it has been in years. While the diehard "Small Three" of Ferrer, Berdych, and Tsonga has faded, and Kei is injured, there's a larger group of players who are comparable in Dimitrov, Zverev, Thiem, Cilic, Goffin, Kyrgios, Raonic, and del Potro, some of whom have even higher upside. Then you have a group of dangerous youngsters hungry to make some noise in Rublev, Shapovalov, Tsitsipas, Khachanov, Medvedev, Tiafoe, etc.

I think the tour is getting really exciting.

 

[El Dude]

And of course if you listen to Scoop, Jack Sock is "great" and players like Struff and Dolgopolov are capable of amazing tennis

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The very top is weaker now with Murray and Stan out and big concerns about Novak and small concerns around Nadal, and always Roger's age, but I think there's an argument that the second tier is much stronger than it has been in years. While the diehard "Small Three" of Ferrer, Berdych, and Tsonga has faded, and Kei is injured, there's a larger group of players who are comparable in Dimitrov, Zverev, Thiem, Cilic, Goffin, Kyrgios, Raonic, and del Potro, some of whom have even higher upside. Then you have a group of dangerous youngsters hungry to make some noise in Rublev, Shapovalov, Tsitsipas, Khachanov, Medvedev, Tiafoe, etc.

I think the tour is getting really exciting.

AFAIK, Stan is not yet out. He withdrew from Mudabala. But, he did not even sign up for any other tourney. I believe he is slated to appear in the Tie break 10 event along with Novak and Rafa.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

We'll see how Rafa does in this fast tennis thing they're doing next week. It may not matter much, unless his knee proves not viable. Otherwise, we wait.

The format will test the fitness, readiness & nerve of players.

P.S.: I am really looking foward to this myself. It's an exciting concept there's going to be a lot of drama very quickly and it's gonna be insane.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The format will test the fitness, readiness & nerve of players.

P.S.: I am really looking foward to this myself. It's an exciting concept there's going to be a lot of drama very quickly and it's gonna be insane.

No way will it test fitness. The entire match is made up of one TB that goes to 10 points. There is a ocean of difference in winning a TB10 match and a five set GS match (and that too with no TB in the last set).

 

[GameSetAndMath]

In the last one week, here are the major news.

1. Nishikori and Andy Murray announced they are not playing in AO'18.
2. We are yet to see Rafa, Novak and Stan play anything. All are scheduled to appear at TB10 event this week.
3. Roger won Hopman Cup, Nick won Brisbane, La Monf won Doha and Simon won Pune.
4. Milos lost early.

Let us see how all of these have affected the odds. The odds below are for winning AO'18 outright.
Anyone with 1% chance or better is listed below. There are 16 of them.

1.Federer 2
2. Rafa 11/2
3. Novak 13/2
4. Grigor 10
5. Sasha 11
6. JMDP 18
7. Nick / Goffin 20
9. Stan / Cilic / Thiem 35
12. Raonic 50
13. Sock / Anderson 80
15. Pouille / Shap 100

Significant observations:

a. Fed's odds improved from 26% to 33%.
b. They listened to Moxie and moved Rafa up over Novak.
c. They have written off Berdych and Tsonga.
d. They have written off La Monf and Simon despite their wins (or may be it has not sunk in yet).

This week we will see JMDP, Shapovalov and Sock in action in Auckland (and no one from the above list in Sydney).
Next update shall be after the release of draw (unless significant news or changes happen).

 

[Moxie]

In the last one week, here are the major news.

1. Nishikori and Andy Murray announced they are not playing in AO'18.
2. We are yet to see Rafa, Novak and Stan play anything. All are scheduled to appear at TB10 event this week.
3. Roger won Hopman Cup, Nick won Brisbane, La Monf won Doha and Simon won Pune.
4. Milos lost early.

Let us see how all of these have affected the odds. The odds below are for winning AO'18 outright.
Anyone with 1% chance or better is listed below. There are 16 of them.

1.Federer 2
2. Rafa 11/2
3. Novak 13/2
4. Grigor 10
5. Sasha 11
6. JMDP 18
7. Nick / Goffin 20
9. Stan / Cilic / Thiem 35
12. Raonic 50
13. Sock / Anderson 80
15. Pouille / Shap 100

Significant observations:

a. Fed's odds improved from 26% to 33%.
b. They listened to Moxie and moved Rafa up over Novak.
c. They have written off Berdych and Tsonga.
d. They have written off La Monf and Simon despite their wins (or may be it has not sunk in yet).

This week we will see JMDP, Shapovalov and Sock in action in Auckland (and no one from the above list in Sydney).
Next update shall be after the release of draw (unless significant news or changes happen).

I believe I started a rumor that Kyrgios won Brisbane. Because the other tournaments had finals today, and Kyrgios/Dimitrov smacked of a final...well, anyway. Nick plays Ryan Harrison tomorrow, so stay tuned, but it does give Nick a confidence boost, and less of one for Grigor.

b. Yes, I was right about that, and so was @mrzz.

I'd give Sock a bump, if you were asking me.

 

[mrzz]

Watched the highlights of Kyrgios Dimitrov match. It seemed to be fun. I didn't see much of a change in Kyrgios, the serve is still scaringly fast. His net game is still good too - due mostly to his quick reflexes -- maybe some improvement there. Not much of a difference on his ground strokes. 95% of his points on the 10 minute highlights clip I saw were aces... but with this serve on a good day he is very hard to beat, so he is definitely a great potential spoiler for AO.

A lot of dangerous floaters to provide drama on round 1. Lopez, Verdasco, Dolgopolov and my main bet for a big upset early on, Pella. Now Simon seems to be back on form, and he is a floater too (ranked around 50 now). He dispatched Agut, Cilic and Anderson, so he would be a nightmare first round to just about everyone. Not to mention most of the NextGen guys (Shapovalov, Donaldson and Chung could be tricky)... AO could become pretty wild from the get go.

 

[Moxie]

Watched the highlights of Kyrgios Dimitrov match. It seemed to be fun. I didn't see much of a change in Kyrgios, the serve is still scaringly fast. His net game is still good too - due mostly to his quick reflexes -- maybe some improvement there. Not much of a difference on his ground strokes. 95% of his points on the 10 minute highlights clip I saw were aces... but with this serve on a good day he is very hard to beat, so he is definitely a great potential spoiler for AO.

A lot of dangerous floaters to provide drama on round 1. Lopez, Verdasco, Dolgopolov and my main bet for a big upset early on, Pella. Now Simon seems to be back on form, and he is a floater too (ranked around 50 now). He dispatched Agut, Cilic and Anderson, so he would be a nightmare first round to just about everyone. Not to mention most of the NextGen guys (Shapovalov, Donaldson and Chung could be tricky)... AO could become pretty wild from the get go.

One change I would say in Kyrgios is that he seemed to really care about winning that match.