2018 Australian Open - Early Chatter

[Moxie]

I see either one of Kyrgios or Dimitrov posing a big problem for Rafa, who I don't expect to make the final. Kyrgios is playing really well and finally seems hungry, and Dimitrov--who almost beat Rafa last year--is more mature and has now won two big titles, with greater confidence and poise.

I see Federer or Djokovic vs. Kyrgios or Dimitrov.

That said, though I want Roger to win, I also would love to see a del Potro vs. Dimitrov/Kyrgios final.

Rafa not making the final is going to have a lot to do with his knee. (At the risk of...blah, blah.) But seriously, if healthy, he does have a good draw. I won't say I'm not worried about Dimitrov, who has played Rafa tough in 2 AO's now, and is getting closer. Of all the people Rafa avoided in his draw, I wouldn't have minded not to see Grigor there, again. He'll surely be out for revenge, if he gets there. And Kyrgios could blow through the top half, or bomb out. He's also got knee issues though, I think.

 

[Moxie]

AO 2018 Prediction:

1 2

Roger Federer 28.4% 2 1 2411 2488 91.2% 90.9% 7 36
2 1

Rafael Nadal 23.6% 1 1 2312 2313 86.7% 82.6% 6 31
3 14

Novak Djokovic 12.7% 14 1 2313 2425 77.1% 70.0% 1 30
4 12

Juan Martin Del Potro 5.0% 12 4 2197 2268 70.4% 71.4% 1 29
5 3

Grigor Dimitrov 4.8% 3 3 2164 2257 69.7% 75.0% 3 26
6 9

Stan Wawrinka 4.5% 9 3 2152 2230 70.6% 75.0% 1 32
7 7

David Goffin 2.6% 7 7 2124 2188 71.6% 72.4% 2 27
8 17

Nick Kyrgios 2.4% 17 13 2075 2169 67.3% 73.8% 1 22
9 15

Jo Wilfried Tsonga 1.7% 15 5 2037 2101 72.0% 72.2% 4 32
10 6

Marin Cilic 1.6% 6 4 2060 2005 66.7% 57.1% 1 29

Clear winner of the 'Gods of the Draw':
Rafael Nadal
(as usual)

Full live prediction at: http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/inProgressEventForecast?name=Australian Open

You "as usual" remark is unfortunate. Do you really think that Rafa always gets the best draw? Have you only been watching tennis for 1 year? Come on...they've both had good ones and tough ones. I'm sure you know that.

Just saw the draw and of course once again Roger's side is stacked with all the toughest players while Nadal's side looks like, at best, a 500 event. Amazing how that keeps happening. Even rusty and on creaky knees he should at least make the semis if not the final. Roger's draw gets tough at the QF when he could play DelPo again. And then if he makes the semis he'll like have to play Djokovic (really can't see Zverev coming out of that quarter). Worst case scenario he has to beat DelPo, Djokovic and Nadal to repeat. Nadal's worst case scenario is Cilic QF, Dimitrov or Wawrinka SF, Federer or Djokovic in the final. I'd rather have Nadal's draw...mainly because I doubt Kyrgios makes it to the 2nd week.

It's so sad that the event will be a lop-sided 500-250 on the odd days, and a full-on Major on the evens. Maybe they should just cancel the top half, and play the "real" event only. As if Roger's never had an easy draw, and Rafa's never had a dismal one.

 

[El Dude]

Rafa not making the final is going to have a lot to do with his knee. (At the risk of...blah, blah.) But seriously, if healthy, he does have a good draw. I won't say I'm not worried about Dimitrov, who has played Rafa tough in 2 AO's now, and is getting closer. Of all the people Rafa avoided in his draw, I wouldn't have minded not to see Grigor there, again. He'll surely be out for revenge, if he gets there. And Kyrgios could blow through the top half, or bomb out. He's also got knee issues though, I think.

Yes, agreed. If Rafa is healthy then he's still the player to beat and should be able to handle Kyrgitrov...on the other hand, this is a more confident Grigor than a year ago, and Kyrgios is blazing...should be interesting.

 

[Moxie]

As to the bottom half, maybe not as dire for Roger as it looks. The first 1/8th is fine, after a potentially tricky first round. The other half of his quarter could spit out an uncomfortable opponent. Most likely del Potro, Goffin or Berdych. This is a potential banana skin, but Roger has been looking good. And there are speed bumps in that quarter before any of them gets to Roger. It will be interesting to see who he finally plays, out of there. Because the next quarter has Djokovic and Wawrinka, but who knows if they'll get out of it? Otherwise, Zverev or Thiem. It mostly comes down to how Djokovic is playing.

 

[Fiero425]

As to the bottom half, maybe not as dire for Roger as it looks. The first 1/8th is fine, after a potentially tricky first round. The other half of his quarter could spit out an uncomfortable opponent. Most likely del Potro, Goffin or Berdych. This is a potential banana skin, but Roger has been looking good. And there are speed bumps in that quarter before any of them gets to Roger. It will be interesting to see who he finally plays, out of there. Because the next quarter has Djokovic and Wawrinka, but who knows if they'll get out of it? Otherwise, Zverev or Thiem. It mostly comes down to how Djokovic is playing.

I saw it and thought the same! The thing is, we can't be sure he will play "lights out" again and even make it to these appointed rounds! Upsets are called that for a reason! He better be on guard from the jump! Hopman Cup is not the AO! :whistle:

 

[El Dude]

Tignor's kiss of death for Roger: http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2018...-bracket-tennis-atp-tour-nadal-federer/71198/

 

[Moxie]

Tignor's kiss of death for Roger: http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2018...-bracket-tennis-atp-tour-nadal-federer/71198/

Which Anti-Pusher already called out. But seriously...he picked the favorite. Is that going to make 75% of all sportswriters Typhoid Mary?

 

[Denis]

Which Anti-Pusher already called out. But seriously...he picked the favorite. Is that going to make 75% of all sportswriters Typhoid Mary?

I’m surprised the bookies are picking fed, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I guess the tables might turn once we get to see where Novak is at. But I also think Roger might not even get to the semis.

Agreed on your point on Rafa earlier. Only Kyrgios and Dimitrov have some potential to stop him before the final. Rafa and Novak have a weird slam record on hards, they both should have done better at the other hard slam (AO for Rafa, USO for Novak)

 

[Denis]

Also, aren't they going to have a shot clock at this AO? I am going to enjoy Rafa dealing with that one. Ticks fast-fast-forward I am sure!

 

[DarthFed]

I’m surprised the bookies are picking fed, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I guess the tables might turn once we get to see where Novak is at. But I also think Roger might not even get to the semis.

Agreed on your point on Rafa earlier. Only Kyrgios and Dimitrov have some potential to stop him before the final. Rafa and Novak have a weird slam record on hards, they both should have done better at the other hard slam (AO for Rafa, USO for Novak)

It's pretty simple, Fed is the only great player without an injury concern coming into this event. He was going to be the favorite by default before the draw. After the draw...you could make Rafa the favorite over him but no one else. It depends on which Fed shows up, any decent form and he is in the semis. And if he's playing like last year he will win this.

 

[isabelle]

is it true that Stan picked up a shoulder injury ?

 

[the AntiPusher]

It's pretty simple, Fed is the only great player without an injury concern coming into this event. He was going to be the favorite by default before the draw. After the draw...you could make Rafa the favorite over him but no one else. It depends on which Fed shows up, any decent form and he is in the semis. And if he's playing like last year he will win this.

Same can be said by Rafa’s effort. If he plays like last year, he should be able to figure out a way not to loose a 3-1 advantage in 5 set.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Del potro is looking good. And, berdych looked good at the tbt exho.

 

[DarthFed]

Same can be said by Rafa’s effort. If he plays like last year, he should be able to figure out a way not to loose a 3-1 advantage in 5 set.

Roger evicted Rafa from his head in that fifth set. The second and fourth sets of that match were more about Roger's head than Rafa's game. I thought aside from set 3 Rafa's level was pretty consistent throughout. Basically if they both make the final and show up and play like last year it'd be a straight setter for Roger. Not saying that's going to happen but Rafa will either have to bring something a lot different than last year or just hope Roger's game falls off a cliff.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Roger evicted Rafa from his head in that fifth set. The second and fourth sets of that match were more about Roger's head than Rafa's game. I thought aside from set 3 Rafa's level was pretty consistent throughout. Basically if they both make the final and show up and play like last year it'd be a straight setter for Roger. Not saying that's going to happen but Rafa will either have to bring something a lot different than last year or just hope Roger's game falls off a cliff.

Is there's EvEr a time on a non clay tournament where Rafa played down to Roger's level.. You make it seems as though its ALWAYS Roger who is driving the "bus" in their matches. This is not even close to the truth.

 

[Fiero425]

Is there's EvEr a time on a non clay tournament where Rafa played down to Roger's level.. You make it seems as though its ALWAYS Roger who is driving the "bus" in their matches. This is not even close to the truth.

I don't understand! What do you mean? Maybe I'm just tired; waking up now! It is up to Roger for the most part! If he plays into Rafa's hands just trying to beat him from the baseline, it won't be pretty for the GOAT! If Roger attacks efficiently and serves well he should win; esp. on a very fast court so for the most part, it is all on Roger! :whistle:

 

[atttomole]

Tough draw for Roger. I hope he won’t have the lapses that he showed towards the end of last year.

 

[the AntiPusher]

I don't understand! What do you mean? Maybe I'm just tired; waking up now! It is up to Roger for the most part! If he plays into Rafa's hands just trying to beat him from the baseline, it won't be pretty for the GOAT! If Roger attacks efficiently and serves well he should win; esp. on a very fast court so for the most part, it is all on Roger! :whistle:

Fiero .. From 08-2015 Rafa was the one driving the bus on non clay courts vs Roger..Acourse .. Recent history will show that Roger is clearly a better player on the faster surfaces but previously Rafa would’ve welcomed a challenge from Roger on any surface. Darth makes Roger appear as some demiGod..he aint .. he can be defeated. Even by Rafa

 

[the AntiPusher]

Tough draw for Roger. I hope he won’t have the lapses that he showed towards the end of last year.

Roger is the da GOAT, correct? he will be AIGHT

 

[DarthFed]

Is there's EvEr a time on a non clay tournament where Rafa played down to Roger's level.. You make it seems as though its ALWAYS Roger who is driving the "bus" in their matches. This is not even close to the truth.

Off clay Roger should've dominated Nadal much more than he has. They've played 23 off clay, a poor record would be 15-8 given the difference in abilities. Decent record of 17-6 and you'd have an equal H2H right now. 13-10 is just pathetic. Rafa to his credit was living in his head for a long time. You won't convince me that Rafa should have ever beaten Roger at events like Wimbledon, Dubai, YEC, and Cincy. Yet Roger has found a way to lose to him at all those events. Those should be 90% probability for Fed to win.

Even still Roger holds the edge everywhere except clay. And he was holding the edge until his disastrous 2013, Rafa munched on his corpse 4 times that year. I wish Roger had that luxury in 2015.