2018 Australian Open - Early Chatter

[the AntiPusher]

The KOD has spoken.. Tignor picks Federer to retain the title. 2018 is starting very promising. Amen

 

[Denis]

Section 3 is a NextGen extravaganza: Kyrgios, Rublev, Tsitsipas, Shapovalov. This is Rublev's first Slam seeding (he's #30), although not a very fortunate 1R opponent in Ferrer, who even in decline could be problematic.

Noticed that section too. A shame they will be taking each other out, but it will add something to the first week.

 

[mcekovic]

AO 2018 Prediction:

1 2

Roger Federer 28.4% 2 1 2411 2488 91.2% 90.9% 7 36
2 1

Rafael Nadal 23.6% 1 1 2312 2313 86.7% 82.6% 6 31
3 14

Novak Djokovic 12.7% 14 1 2313 2425 77.1% 70.0% 1 30
4 12

Juan Martin Del Potro 5.0% 12 4 2197 2268 70.4% 71.4% 1 29
5 3

Grigor Dimitrov 4.8% 3 3 2164 2257 69.7% 75.0% 3 26
6 9

Stan Wawrinka 4.5% 9 3 2152 2230 70.6% 75.0% 1 32
7 7

David Goffin 2.6% 7 7 2124 2188 71.6% 72.4% 2 27
8 17

Nick Kyrgios 2.4% 17 13 2075 2169 67.3% 73.8% 1 22
9 15

Jo Wilfried Tsonga 1.7% 15 5 2037 2101 72.0% 72.2% 4 32
10 6

Marin Cilic 1.6% 6 4 2060 2005 66.7% 57.1% 1 29

Clear winner of the 'Gods of the Draw':
Rafael Nadal
(as usual)

Full live prediction at: http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/inProgressEventForecast?name=Australian Open

 

[the AntiPusher]

Of course he is a real threat on a non-clay surface - I am not in any way impugning his ability. Stop thinking all Federer fans are Darth242. I wouldn't put money on Kyrgios/Dimitrov, I just like what I've seen from both and couple that with Rafa's questionable health and possible rust, think they have a good chance of beating him.

El Dude.. Rafa won the last GS on hardcourts in a very convincing fashion wouldn’t you agree.. I think that Rafa just played it safe and decided to conserve his energy instead of all those tiresome tune ups.. Question..US0 2017 Nadal vs Fed or Djoker.. who ya got?

 

[Denis]

AO 2018 Prediction:

1 2

Roger Federer 28.4% 2 1 2411 2488 91.2% 90.9% 7 36
2 1

Rafael Nadal 23.6% 1 1 2312 2313 86.7% 82.6% 6 31
3 14

Novak Djokovic 12.7% 14 1 2313 2425 77.1% 70.0% 1 30
4 12

Juan Martin Del Potro 5.0% 12 4 2197 2268 70.4% 71.4% 1 29
5 3

Grigor Dimitrov 4.8% 3 3 2164 2257 69.7% 75.0% 3 26
6 9

Stan Wawrinka 4.5% 9 3 2152 2230 70.6% 75.0% 1 32
7 7

David Goffin 2.6% 7 7 2124 2188 71.6% 72.4% 2 27
8 17

Nick Kyrgios 2.4% 17 13 2075 2169 67.3% 73.8% 1 22
9 15

Jo Wilfried Tsonga 1.7% 15 5 2037 2101 72.0% 72.2% 4 32
10 6

Marin Cilic 1.6% 6 4 2060 2005 66.7% 57.1% 1 29

Clear winner of the 'Gods of the Draw':
Rafael Nadal
(as usual)

Full live prediction at: http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/inProgressEventForecast?name=Australian Open

Nice site.

Let’s see how it plays out, this is not really feds best slam. Going with Novak.

 

[Denis]

El Dude.. Rafa won the last GS on hardcourts in a very convincing fashion wouldn’t you agree.. I think that Rafa just played it safe and decided to conserve his energy instead of all those tiresome tune ups.. Question..US0 2017 Nadal vs Fed or Djoker.. who ya got?

You mean that challenger event in New York with guest appearance by Kevin A?

 

[mcekovic]

Rafael Nadal projected path at AO 2018:
R128: Victor Estrella
R64: Leonardo Mayer
R32: Damir Dzumhur
R16: Diego Sebastian Schwartzman
QF: Marin Cilic
SF: Grigor Dimitrov
F: Roger Federer

First real test in the final, lucky Rafa!

 

[mcekovic]

Roger Federer projected path at AO 2018:
R128: Aljaz Bedene
R64: Jan Lennard Struff
R32: Richard Gasquet
R16: Milos Raonic
QF: Juan Martin Del Potro
SF: Novak Djokovic
F: Rafael Nadal

Fair draw for Fed, moderate one, but noticeable harder then Rafa's.
Projected path for your favourite player you can find at:
http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/inProgressEventForecast?name=Australian Open&tab=probable
Then pin your favourite player in the 'Pinned player' select box.

 

[mcekovic]

Novak Djokovic projected path at AO 2018:
R128: Donald Young
R64: Gael Monfils
R32: Jared Donaldson
R16: Alexander Zverev
QF: Stan Wawrinka
SF: Roger Federer
F: Rafael Nadal

Nole has got the shortest stick... his draw is arguable the hardest from the Big 3.

 

[Denis]

Novak Djokovic projected path at AO 2018:
R128: Donald Young
R64: Gael Monfils
R32: Jared Donaldson
R16: Alexander Zverev
QF: Stan Wawrinka
SF: Roger Federer
F: Rafael Nadal

Nole has got the shortest stick... his draw is arguable the hardest from the Big 3.

That’s what you get ranked 14. Really excited to see how he does.

 

[Fiero425]

Novak Djokovic projected path at AO 2018:
R128: Donald Young
R64: Gael Monfils
R32: Jared Donaldson
R16: Alexander Zverev
QF: Stan Wawrinka
SF: Roger Federer
F: Rafael Nadal

Nole has got the shortest stick... his draw is arguable the hardest from the Big 3.

That's what happens when not a top 2 seed! That USO run in '16 was probably those weakest ever with WC, WO's, & defaults along the way! :whistle:

 

[10isfan]

Nadal got lucky with the draw again (except for Kyrgios in the semi). Is the surface playing fast this year?

 

[DarthFed]

Sometimes I think that you say these about Rafa knowing that Moxie or I will Crucify you. How many times does Rafa has to beat these guys before you consider him a REAL threat on a non clay surface? Only a jaded Rafa facing a fresher Fed or Novak really concerns me.

Haha, jaded Rafa. Was he "jaded" the last 7 sets that Roger has run him over in? I'd say the bigger concern would be Roger's energy if he reaches the final and that's a big if. He ain't getting the extra cream-filled donut draw that Nadal got. Alas I'm trying to be a glass half-full guy and see the positive that it's one slam closer to the asshole being gone forever.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Aside from the injury I think Tomic's biggest problem has been that beating the elite players - the top 4-5 - is harder work than he thought it would be. The talent gap between him and those guys is huge. Playing Federer twice at the AO early in his career showed him a whole new level that he'd have to get - and I think it was simply more hard work than he wanted to do and probably didn't have the confidence that even had an extra gear - mentally and physically - to take his game to.

Tomic’s biggest problem is that his momma picked a bad sperm donor

 

[the AntiPusher]

Roger Federer projected path at AO 2018:
R128: Aljaz Bedene
R64: Jan Lennard Struff
R32: Richard Gasquet
R16: Milos Raonic
QF: Juan Martin Del Potro
SF: Novak Djokovic
F: Rafael Nadal

Fair draw for Fed, moderate one, but noticeable harder then Rafa's.
Projected path for your favourite player you can find at:
http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/inProgressEventForecast?name=Australian Open&tab=probable
Then pin your favourite player in the 'Pinned player' select box.

If DelPo is not totally gased by then ..he may be able to derailed Roger's coronation yet again to Darth's distain.

 

[Denis]

Do they play on Sunday here already? I think all Slams should start on Friday afternoon with a break on the two mondays when most people are working.

Wimbledon is completely retarded in that respect.

 

[DarthFed]

If DelPo is not totally gased by then ..he may be able to derailed Roger's coronation yet again to Darth's distain.

If he loses to Del Po again it'd be pathetic. Juan is done as a threat at slam level.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

About 12 hours have elapsed since the draw came out. Here are latest odds for winning AO outright.

Everyone with 1% or better chances are listed below. There are 15 of them.

1. Federer 19/10
2. Nadal 9/2
3. Djokovic 13/2
4. Grigor 11
5. Sasha 16
6. Nick 18
7. Goffin / JMDP 20
9. Cilic 33
10. Thiem / Stan /Raonic 50
13. Anderson 75
14. Sock 80
15. Shapovalov 100

It does not look like the odds changed much after the draw. Rafa improved little bit from 11/2 to 9/2. Nick moved
ahead of JMDP. Sasha maintained his position but odds came down considerably from 11 to 16. Other than that
the changes are minor.

Next update will be sometime after the finals of current warm-up tourneys such as Sydney and Auckland and before the first ball of AO is struck.

 

[Fiero425]

Do they play on Sunday here already? I think all Slams should start on Friday afternoon with a break on the two mondays when most people are working.

Wimbledon is completely retarded in that respect.

You have to keep in consideration that Wimbledon is a suburb of London; more like a neighborhood than a venue with businesses and plenty of public transportation around! They like to give the area a break on that one Sunday; always been the case! Way back when the finals were held a day earlier so there wasn't play even on the one Sunday for the men's final! The 1st time the 1st Sunday was used was probably '85 when they had torrential rains that cancelled play a lot during the week! It was a big deal, everyday people allowed to attend Centre Court and made into a huge carnival atmosphere for Jimmy Connors to play! :whistle:

 

[Moxie]

Never know which Stan is gonna show up.he should have tennis fresh legs since he hasnt played since Rafa destoyed him at RG.

Me either. I'll be surprised if he makes it past the 3rd round.

Wawrinka wasn't even fit enough to play TieBreak10s, which Hewitt found suitable to a retired guy that can barely move. This isn't a question of "which Stan" shows up. I'm with @Busted...I don't think Stan's in any shape to make it past the 3rd round. Or 2nd.