2017 Australian Open Final: FEDAL XXXV

Who will win the title?


  • Total voters
    21

Front242

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
22,892
Reactions
3,892
Points
113
Absolutely. Roger can definitely play better than he did in that final. The 5th set was mighty impressive but the level in sets 2 and 4 was pretty poor and he can surely play a cleaner match than that and he will no doubt. He's still played barely any tennis in months. Nadal of course can play better too, if he's allowed to. Depends on the opponent. I'm looking forward to Roger spanking Murray again like a red headed stepchild.
 

Kieran

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
16,880
Reactions
7,083
Points
113
Front242 said:
Didn't think there was anything wrong with his tactics in set 5. After all he was up 3-1. It was simply a case of Roger playing amazing and making an unreal comeback. Even then, it took a monumental effort from Roger to get back level and even more so to pull ahead 5-3 with that unreal backhand.

He served sh1t in the fifth set. He finished the fourth set serving strongly, dominantly, and he lost this attitude completely on his serve in the fifth. Look at the basic forehand he fluffed at 1-0, 15-0. His radical loss of aggression in the next two points, dropping balls tentatively short. His sluggish movement throughout. Leaden footwork, lazily stretching for forehands that he'd usually hunt down and smack into the corner, dropping the ball short. 3-2, 30-all, a huge forehand shank. When he was behind in games, he was combative, sturdy, dictating rallies - back to deuce - then ad-Rafa, a shanked midcourt forehand that clipped the tape and went out.

I'm not denying Federer's good play, but Rafa in the fifth was a player who was scraping the dregs of the cup, and rather it being an exercise of Federer dazzling him into submission, we actually saw a player who was half-tank, but still having chances - great chances - to get close to victory, while serving atrociously. At 3-4, 0-30, a weak DF, to allow 3 bp's, then 3 assertive points from Rafa to deuce. A great rally victory by Federer brought another BP, which Rafa served away down the centre.

More great play by Federer which left me semi-aghast at his almost deranged physicality for a man of his years. Even at 5-3, through a combo of Rafa aggression, and some poor nervous play by Federer, Rafa brought up 2 bp's. Ace, then Rafa playing conservatively - understandable this time. Federer stumbled through his service game - which was understandable on his part. It was a patchy set of tennis, but the Rafa who held convincingly to win the fourth was gone. Instead we got a player who was running on fumes, and still getting very close to victory...
 

Kieran

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
16,880
Reactions
7,083
Points
113
Front242 said:
Rafa served 90% in set 5...

He didn't. He got a high % of first serves in, but that never indicates easy points for Rafa. It's what he does with the serve, and what he does behind it, that matters. I'm only showing you how he lost it, buddy, and why he also deserves great credit for coming so close...
 

Front242

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
22,892
Reactions
3,892
Points
113
In fairness, Roger should have never let it get to a 5th set and had to work extremely hard in set 5 but the only reason Rafa got ahead in the match was down to Roger's slop. Sets 2 and 4 were full of errors and I don't think anyone could deny that. This was not a case of Rafa fighting extremely hard and breaking Roger's serve with amazing play, rather Roger just handed those sets to him with his poor play.
 

Kieran

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
16,880
Reactions
7,083
Points
113
One thing I wouldn't be in favour of - and I understand we all see things through our own filters - is that we would draw too many definitive conclusions based upon what we saw in Oz. In some ways, Oz was a very special tourney - a Fedal final, FFS, that's just ridiculous at that level, with both having been out for so long. A WS final. Grigor playing outta his mind to reach the semis - and come close to victory. Some bird in the hens tourney coming back from (what was it?) something like 17 years hiatus to reach the semis. Nole out on Day 3. World #1 Murray out a couple of days later. It was berserk, and bizarre, in so many strange ways, that personally, I'd be slow to make any predictions going forward, based on what we saw. I'm already damping down Rafa's chances going forwards, because one great tournament just isn't enough to start ramping up his chances. If anything, it should be more reason to be pessimistic, because he did so well - and still didn't win it!

Likewise, Federer, for different reasons, and Grigor for other different reasons. The only player I feel safe making generally positive predictions about is Sasha Zverev...
 

El Dude

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
10,041
Reactions
5,608
Points
113
Kieran, I've got to give it to you - you're a master of subtle spin :p.

I do agree with what you say about 90%, but the 10% is where you are just subtly obfuscating and spinning. You over-emphasize Rafa's exhaustion and lackluster play, which in turn plays down Roger's brilliance--while at the same time putting into question the, ah, legitimacy of his physical fitness.

But I respect your take, as always, I just don't agree with the spin.
 

Front242

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
22,892
Reactions
3,892
Points
113
Yeah, I hope to say Zverev improve his fitness and cut out the errors. THEN, he'll be dangerous. As of now though, I can see him beating the top guys only in best of 3. Hoping Gulbis makes a comeback soon too with his new forehand. Given up on the airplane FH apparently.

Btw, check out the Federer AO 2017 backhand V2.0 splooge fest here. Great highlights. Already watched it a few times and when you get to the final match, the ultra aggressive play from Federer shows why you might think Nadal was "tired" as he was clearly made to run a lot more than Nadal made him run. Constantly on the defensive running everywhere, whereas Federer is often just taking short steps and changes of direction with ease and far less running.

http://www.tennisfrontier.com/forum/showthread.php?tid=5327&pid=247889#pid247889
 

Kieran

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
16,880
Reactions
7,083
Points
113
El Dude said:
Kieran, I've got to give it to you - you're a master of subtle spin :p.

I do agree with what you say about 90%, but the 10% is where you are just subtly obfuscating and spinning. You over-emphasize Rafa's exhaustion and lackluster play, which in turn plays down Roger's brilliance--while at the same time putting into question the, ah, legitimacy of his physical fitness.

But I respect your take, as always, I just don't agree with the spin.

Buddy, I wish you were saying that in regretful bitterness about Rafa's heavy spin instead... ;)
 

Kieran

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
16,880
Reactions
7,083
Points
113
Front242 said:
Yeah, I hope to say Zverev improve his fitness and cut out the errors. THEN, he'll be dangerous. As of now though, I can see him beating the top guys only in best of 3. Hoping Gulbis makes a comeback soon too with his new forehand. Given up on the airplane FH apparently.

I dunno, Zverev isn't hugely unfit, but he's inexperienced at that level. Cramps like that can be caused by nerves. Aside from his humongous shooting though, I was impressed by his attitude. I hope he's highly ambitious, and entitled. I think he'll threaten or even beat a top bloke in another slam this year...
 

Front242

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
22,892
Reactions
3,892
Points
113
Kieran said:
Front242 said:
Yeah, I hope to say Zverev improve his fitness and cut out the errors. THEN, he'll be dangerous. As of now though, I can see him beating the top guys only in best of 3. Hoping Gulbis makes a comeback soon too with his new forehand. Given up on the airplane FH apparently.

I dunno, Zverev isn't hugely unfit, but he's inexperienced at that level. Cramps like that can be caused by nerves. Aside from his humongous shooting though, I was impressed by his attitude. I hope he's highly ambitious, and entitled. I think he'll threaten or even beat a top bloke in another slam this year...

Imo, he's most likely to beat Novak in his current state than any of the others. But who's to say Novak stays playing like he is currently. He looked sh1te mind you in Davis Cup.
 

El Dude

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
10,041
Reactions
5,608
Points
113
Some stats to consider.

Rafa's 1st serve in % was actually better in the 5th set (85%) than in the first four sets (68%). One difference, though, is that he had no aces and 2 double faults.

Roger's break-point percentage in the 5th set was weak (18%, 2-for-11) compared to the first four sets (44%, 4-for-9). Given Roger's overall steady play, this implies that Rafa's incredible defense came into play in the 5th set more strongly. Exhausted? Maybe, or maybe not.

The main difference in their performance in the 5th set is that while both had 9 unforced errors, Roger had 23 winners vs. Rafa's 13. That would imply overall superior play from Roger - better shot-making, and an inability on Rafa's part to get the ball by him.

I'm not saying that these stats push the needle one way or the other, but they're worth considering.
 

El Dude

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
10,041
Reactions
5,608
Points
113
Kieran said:
El Dude said:
Kieran, I've got to give it to you - you're a master of subtle spin :p.

I do agree with what you say about 90%, but the 10% is where you are just subtly obfuscating and spinning. You over-emphasize Rafa's exhaustion and lackluster play, which in turn plays down Roger's brilliance--while at the same time putting into question the, ah, legitimacy of his physical fitness.

But I respect your take, as always, I just don't agree with the spin.

Buddy, I wish you were saying that in regretful bitterness about Rafa's heavy spin instead... ;)

I've been doing that for 13 years... :cry
 

Kieran

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
16,880
Reactions
7,083
Points
113
Front242 said:
Kieran said:
Front242 said:
Yeah, I hope to say Zverev improve his fitness and cut out the errors. THEN, he'll be dangerous. As of now though, I can see him beating the top guys only in best of 3. Hoping Gulbis makes a comeback soon too with his new forehand. Given up on the airplane FH apparently.

I dunno, Zverev isn't hugely unfit, but he's inexperienced at that level. Cramps like that can be caused by nerves. Aside from his humongous shooting though, I was impressed by his attitude. I hope he's highly ambitious, and entitled. I think he'll threaten or even beat a top bloke in another slam this year...

Imo, he's most likely to beat Novak in his current state than any of the others. But who's to say Novak stays playing like he is currently. He looked sh1te mind you in Davis Cup.

I know I just said I'm going to try not draw any definitive conclusions based on this tourney, but actually based upon the last few months, Novak looks to me like a bloke who's sick to his eye-teeth of tennis...
 

El Dude

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
10,041
Reactions
5,608
Points
113
I kind of feel that way about Novak too, Kieran. That said, seeing Fedal back on top might re-spark his interest.

As for Zverev, at first I questioned his mentality as he seemed to bend and fold like a young sapling. But then I grew to appreciate it, as he recovered and fought back. Clearly he was frustrated with himself, but this means he cares and really wants to win.

A contrast to Kyrgios, who just seems like he has a chip on his shoulder and wants to get respect and wear his bling. What a douche he is.
 

Carol

Grand Slam Champion
Joined
Jan 10, 2015
Messages
9,225
Reactions
1,833
Points
113
Even that he is a very close friend of Federer he doesn't have any problem to say what he and many people think

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/day-off-made-diffference-says-tiger-woods-about-federers-win-over-nadal-australia-1604673
 

Front242

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
22,892
Reactions
3,892
Points
113
Carol35 said:
Even that he is a very close friend of Federer he doesn't have any problem to say what he and many people think

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/day-off-made-diffference-says-tiger-woods-about-federers-win-over-nadal-australia-1604673

Many people like Nadal you mean who said the reason he lost was because Roger played super aggressive?
 

Carol

Grand Slam Champion
Joined
Jan 10, 2015
Messages
9,225
Reactions
1,833
Points
113
Front242 said:
Carol35 said:
Even that he is a very close friend of Federer he doesn't have any problem to say what he and many people think

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/day-off-made-diffference-says-tiger-woods-about-federers-win-over-nadal-australia-1604673

Many people like Nadal you mean who said the reason he lost was because Roger played super aggressive?

Nobody is saying that he didn't play aggressive
 

Front242

The GOAT
Joined
Apr 14, 2013
Messages
22,892
Reactions
3,892
Points
113
Doesn't matter how rested he was, he got caught out by great angled backhands a lot of the match and you can't run after them when they've already flown past you, not to mention the forehand winners. I suggest watching the highlights again.
 

GameSetAndMath

The GOAT
Joined
Jul 9, 2013
Messages
21,141
Reactions
3,398
Points
113
Just repeat after me folks:

[video=youtube]https://youtu.be/XvHK7QRG6MM[/video]